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Thinking out loud

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 4, 2013 4:49am Sep 4, 2013 4:49am
I started trading the Euro Dollar many years ago because I thought (naively) the pair would be less prone to manipulations.

My logic was based in the huge part it represents in the forex world. Apart from the FED I thought it would be impossible
for any other institution to push this pair around. Therefore making it more logical and predictable.

It didn't take long for me to realize I was wrong.

Now I'm glad to say I don't care anymore I just accepted the fact this market (any market) is COMPLETELY manipulated, counter-intuitive and unpredictable.

So instead of trying to domesticate this beast , I'm just in the business of harvesting its power to my advantage.
  • #2
  • Sep 4, 2013 5:01am Sep 4, 2013 5:01am
According to my view the pair is just bouncing off a strong support. I should be long since yesterday for a 150 pips ride up, till 1.3325 area.

I'm flat because of the NFP week and of course the Syrian issue.

In times of strong fundamentals anything can happens based on interpretations, so this "strong support" I mentioned above can become a pivotal area
and finally give up.

If I see something clear I will probably jump on the opportunity but intraday only, no swing trades. At least for now.
  • #3
  • Sep 4, 2013 5:28am Sep 4, 2013 5:28am
On 05-10-2013 we got a similar situation we are now. Same kind of support and it gave, went 208 pips down to form a new bottom.

06-26-2013 same kind of support. It gave up again for 264 pips before a new bottom.

I don't remember the fundamentals at those occasions but the probabilities of it happening again are there.

Those to support breaks mentioned above came with retest so if it breaks on the ADP, retests on NFP and the Syrian talks continue
I will be so short that the wife will start to complain.
  • #4
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:21am Sep 4, 2013 6:21am
Quoting Suffo
I'm sorry I drink too much beer here
No problem bro.

Now back to my thoughts.

I may try a short around 1.32 or 3225 area. Of course according to a decent PA set up.

I noticed on those 2 occasions mentioned above the pair moving up 100 pips or so before falling again.

3225 would make 80 pips ( give or take) from the bottom. With the Syria thingy going on 80 pips up could trigger more selling appetite.
  • #5
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:51am Sep 4, 2013 6:51am
I trade with oanda so it is impossible not to check their open position ratio during the day.

in august 20th, right at the last top we had only 19% of long positions open. Which make sense
since the pair was up almost 700 pips.

What is counter intuitive to me is people piling up long orders all the way down from 3450.

Note how the long open positions more than doubled during the fall.

I can see the pros taking a crack now since we are on a reasonable support, but I wonder who was opening long
positions all the way down.

The newbies?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:11am Sep 4, 2013 7:11am
Quoting Suffo
how long are you trading? you are smart ass
6 1/2 years. Still not a pro, still learning, very often getting beaten by the markets.
  • #7
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:47am Sep 4, 2013 7:47am
Quoting Suffo
I could give you my opinion but I'm on vacation now Maybe next time -good luck
I'm just thinking out loud, you can voice your opinion any time.
  • #8
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:58am Sep 4, 2013 7:58am
Quoting Slackjawed
I trade with oanda so it is impossible not to check their open position ratio during the day. in august 20th, right at the last top we had only 19% of long positions open. Which make sense since the pair was up almost 700 pips. What is counter intuitive to me is people piling up long orders all the way down from 3450. Note how the long open positions more than doubled during the fall. I can see the pros taking a crack now since we are on a reasonable support, but I wonder who was opening long positions all the way down. The newbies? {image}
Count my position on this damn retracement


Hopefully it will be back!!
  • #9
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:50pm Sep 4, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting Slackjawed
{quote} No problem bro. Now back to my thoughts. I may try a short around 1.32 or 3225 area. Of course according to a decent PA set up. I noticed on those 2 occasions mentioned above the pair moving up 100 pips or so before falling again. 3225 would make 80 pips ( give or take) from the bottom. With the Syria thingy going on 80 pips up could trigger more selling appetite.
Well, it seems we got there. When I pointed to this level this morning I did not take in account the beige book release.

I thought it would get there much faster.

Price is starting to be rejected as i thought and a temporary resistance seems plausible. what a shame i can't trade it right now.

One of my rules is not to hold positions over night unless I'm in hefty profits. what a shame.
  • #10
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:23pm Sep 4, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting Slackjawed
I can see the pros taking a crack now since we are on a reasonable support, but I wonder who was opening long positions all the way down. The newbies? {image}
You'll notice that the majority of Oanda(retail) traders will close their positions once in profit a little, but hold on to losers for much much longer.

Blue are positions in the negative, orange are profitable positions... you know this Slack, just stating it for the rest
Attached Image
  • #11
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:29pm Sep 4, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You'll notice that the majority of Oanda(retail) traders will close their positions once in profit a little, but hold on to losers for much much longer. Blue are positions in the negative, orange are profitable positions... you know this Slack, just stating it for the rest {image}

No I didn't. So thats what those colors mean. Thanks for the heads up.

I'm not an expert on oanda's charts, just curious about it.

I noticed somebody changed the thread from another place here. Is it normal?
  • #12
  • Sep 4, 2013 8:37pm Sep 4, 2013 8:37pm
One year chart of oanda's open positions.

10-17-2012 33.56% long 66.44% short

11-10-2012 52.51% long 47.49% short

During this period the pair went down almost 500 pips while the long positions grew 18,95%

I'm not trying to predict anything with those charts. I'm only curious to know who is opening
longs and keeping it open during the fall.

Then at 11-10-2012 the pair starts to take off. The logical scenario would be to see long
positions piling up on top of the already 52.51%.

But no, at this exact point the longs start to decline and 500 pips up the total longs are
only 25.63% on december 16.

This phenomena does not happens always perfectly but I would say that 80% of the time
long/short rations are inversely proportional to the movement direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:55am Sep 5, 2013 3:55am
Quoting Slackjawed
who is opening longs and keeping it open during the fall.
Latent limits usually
Time hides Nothing
  • #14
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:29am Sep 5, 2013 4:29am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Latent limits usually
Hey bro, why did you block me on your thread?

Did I say something wrong there?

If I did I'm sorry.
  • #15
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:32am Sep 5, 2013 4:32am
Quoting Slackjawed
{quote} Hey bro, why did you block me on your thread? Did I say something wrong there? If I did I'm sorry.
Nah I just put the 10V block on it so no one bump it up.. Done with it.. you now need to have 10+ vouches to post so not singling you out..! Same for all.
Time hides Nothing
  • #16
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:35am Sep 5, 2013 4:35am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Nah I just put the 10V block on it so no one bump it up.. Done with it.. you now need to have 10+ vouches to post so not singling you out..! Same for all.
Got it.
  • #17
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:48am Sep 5, 2013 4:48am
Quoting Slackjawed
{quote} Well, it seems we got there. When I pointed to this level this morning I did not take in account the beige book release. I thought it would get there much faster. Price is starting to be rejected as i thought and a temporary resistance seems plausible. what a shame i can't trade it right now. One of my rules is not to hold positions over night unless I'm in hefty profits. what a shame.

So the area proved to be a mild resistance.

I did not write it yesterday but 3164 and 3153 were supports. 1.3153 is part of the very strong support I mentioned above.

1.3164 is a newly formed support but still strong. Both THE LEVEL to be broken.

I can't predict the future so the best I can do is to trade the PA and hope to hang on to the right trade.

I explained above that in the last 2 occasions the pair faced similar supports it gave up to 200 pips
more or less before a new bottom was formed.
  • #18
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:55am Sep 5, 2013 4:55am
We are back up to the temporary resistance area.

I see 3210 ish than 3220 than 3260 than 3300 than 3325 ( already mentioned before)

Those are areas I would enter short according to PA

On the bottom 3168 than 3166 for a long attempt.

Those are the numbers I will be watching and trading accordly.

Still no swing trades because of the NFP, just intra day positions.
  • #19
  • Sep 5, 2013 5:19am Sep 5, 2013 5:19am
As the pair decides its direction in a day PACKED of news the open long positions remain at a respectable level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20
  • Sep 5, 2013 7:00am Sep 5, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Slackjawed
We are back up to the temporary resistance area. I see 3210 ish than 3220 than 3260 than 3300 than 3325 ( already mentioned before) Those are areas I would enter short according to PA On the bottom 3168 than 3166 for a long attempt. Those are the numbers I will be watching and trading accordly. Still no swing trades because of the NFP, just intra day positions.
PA trigger on this doji at the first area mentioned.

I did not take this trade because of the week we are in. In a regular situation I will jump on it for sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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