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Let's Trade Options

  • #1,221
  • Sep 3, 2013 12:29pm Sep 3, 2013 12:29pm
taken a new trade today. Only bought one contract as its expensive. straight directional play

bought the 400$ put for september 21 expiration on CMG for $4.90. I have 3 weeks

CMG Sep 2013 400.000 put (CMG130921P00400000)
-OPR
4.90 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(2.00%) 1:00PM EDT

CMG is trading at $405 a few moments ago
  • #1,222
  • Sep 3, 2013 1:06pm Sep 3, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
taken a new trade today. Only bought one contract as its expensive. straight directional play bought the 400$ put for september 21 expiration on CMG for $4.90. I have 3 weeks CMG Sep 2013 400.000 put (CMG130921P00400000) -OPR 4.90 {image} 0.10(2.00%) 1:00PM EDT CMG is trading at $405 a few moments ago
Never followed it, but if it repeats what it did from last year at this time you will be richer. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,223
  • Sep 3, 2013 4:42pm Sep 3, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... (I went Sep $37/Oct $40 for a net debit of $0.57, looking for a spike when the cm's fly)
BOOyah, USO to $39.18 ah, I need to work on my evil war speculator persona: (think Monte Burns, "Eeexxcelent!"
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,224
  • Sep 3, 2013 4:48pm Sep 3, 2013 4:48pm
Futures options expire in a couple of weeks. I would be surprised if they didn't support crude through expiry.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,225
  • Sep 3, 2013 5:00pm Sep 3, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Futures options expire in a couple of weeks. I would be surprised if they didn't support crude through expiry.
There are more than a few quite extreme estimates (out there in financial press land) for crude spiking through Q3-Q4, try Brent $150?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,226
  • Sep 4, 2013 12:58am Sep 4, 2013 12:58am
watching US stock futures overnight, greening, looking for a VIX pullback and another short-term VXX directional play
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,227
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:56am Sep 4, 2013 7:56am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} There are more than a few quite extreme estimates (out there in financial press land) for crude spiking through Q3-Q4, try Brent $150?
Comparison of MACD on Brent vs Nymex

http://s19.postimg.org/qcps5v143/brent_vs_nymex.png



Of course, Brent is expected to be more sensitive to geopolitics in the M.E. But the divergence is huge.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,228
  • Sep 4, 2013 1:12pm Sep 4, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting The Fool
watching US stock futures overnight, greening, looking for a VIX pullback and another short-term VXX directional play
US stocks up near 1% & VIX barely off it's open.

Sold VXX Sep 27 $15 puts @ $0.45, bought VXX Sep 27 $18 calls @ $0.67, $0.22 net debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,229
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:06pm Sep 4, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} US stocks up near 1% & VIX barely off it's open. Sold VXX Sep 27 $15 puts @ $0.45, bought VXX Sep 27 $18 calls @ $0.67, $0.22 net debit
Do you think we will see a sell-off by 27 Sept?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,230
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:16pm Sep 4, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Do you think we will see a sell-off by 27 Sept?
Syria event risk, FOMC 9/18 with substantive taper info, chances look good for some downside. When? Well if/when the cruise missiles fly I will want to be positioned for that short equities and long oil. That could happen next week, but if it blows over there's still the FOMC effect. Maybe that's been priced in by now? Maybe we won't get any taper language. We'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,231
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:51pm Sep 4, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Syria event risk, FOMC 9/18 with substantive taper info, chances look good for some downside. When? Well if/when the cruise missiles fly I will want to be positioned for that short equities and long oil. That could happen next week, but if it blows over there's still the FOMC effect. Maybe that's been priced in by now? Maybe we won't get any taper language. We'll see.
I think I remember shortly before the action started in Iraq (GWB Iraq War, I think) the markets flew. But I could be wrong on that. However, that's not what I expect this time anyway, if only because the markets haven't much dropped at this point.
My current thinking is that ES goes back up to 1680 over the coming days and weeks; perhaps they will ramp it up til the FOMC on the 18th.
Crude, I dunno, it looks heavy. Might be another spurt to 112 Nymex but I can't help feeling there's a lot of folks want to give it a good whack if it does.
Currently just trying to stay kinda delta neutral until opex in 2 weeks.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,232
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:02am Sep 5, 2013 11:02am
Quoting Cecil Gee
taken a new trade today. Only bought one contract as its expensive. straight directional play bought the 400$ put for september 21 expiration on CMG for $4.90. I have 3 weeks CMG Sep 2013 400.000 put (CMG130921P00400000) -OPR 4.90 {image} 0.10(2.00%) 1:00PM EDT CMG is trading at $405 a few moments ago
closed this trade and out at $3.90 = $100 loss. waiting to see which direction it will take and then will re enter maybe for a better price.

looking to take a scalp on VXX $15.50 put if i can get it for 2 or 3c for tomorrows expiration, its at 5c

VXX Sep 2013 15.500 put (VXX130906P00015500)
-OPR
0.05 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.03(150.00%) 11:46AM EDT
  • #1,233
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:26am Sep 5, 2013 11:26am
I'm looking at putting a strangle on TLT, with a little overweight long call. We could see a strong move back down in the long bond rate / move into US Tnotes if/when US strikes Syria....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,234
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:18pm Sep 5, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting The Fool
I'm looking at putting a strangle on TLT, with a little overweight long call. We could see a strong move back down in the long bond rate / move into US Tnotes if/when US strikes Syria....
Didn't get in, will be watching, expecting to see a 3% rate this week.

As of today's close

Oct 19 $105/$99 ($1.17/$1.08) ~ $2.25 + comms

Oct 4 $105/$100: ($0.89/$1.02) ~ $1.91

Sep 27 $104/$100 ($0.96/$0.66) ~ $1.62
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,235
  • Sep 6, 2013 12:59am Sep 6, 2013 12:59am
emerging markets to be hit hard by pullback on the stimulus & rising rates in US? So goes the story.

Have been watching EEM: "The investment seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities in its underlying index. The underlying index is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. "

Price approaching $40 a good place to look for put entries. As of today's close, a possible strangle:

Oct 19 $41 call $0.55, $37 put $0.53......will look to enter put @ <$0.50 and enter call on a share price pullback
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-05_eem.png Size: 52 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,236
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:34am Sep 6, 2013 4:34am
Quoting The Fool
a possible strangle: Oct 19 $41 call $0.55, $37 put $0.53......will look to enter put @ <$0.50 and enter call on a share price pullback {image}
Buying or selling the strangle?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,237
  • Edited 1:04pm Sep 6, 2013 12:30pm | Edited 1:04pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Buying or selling the strangle?
BUY. $37 put @ $0.42 now...might do better than that next week, so I wait.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,238
  • Sep 6, 2013 1:07pm Sep 6, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Didn't get in, will be watching, expecting to see a 3% rate this week. As of today's close Oct 19 $105/$99 ($1.17/$1.08) ~ $2.25 + comms Oct 4 $105/$100: ($0.89/$1.02) ~ $1.91 Sep 27 $104/$100 ($0.96/$0.66) ~ $1.62
TLT strangle was a better idea st, pretty good bet rate was gonna bounce off 3%...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,239
  • Sep 9, 2013 6:04pm Sep 9, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} BUY. $37 put @ $0.42 now...might do better than that next week, so I wait.
still on the Oct 19 EEM long strangle, $42.50/$38.00 ($0.58/$0.42) ~ buck even + comms

buck strangle on Oct 19 VXX maybe too, $18/$14 ($0.70/$0.30)....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,240
  • Sep 10, 2013 11:03am Sep 10, 2013 11:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Check USO daily/weekly range ($0.50 net gain/loss seems to be on the high end for a daily range, $2.00 for a weekly range) Check the underlying for the etf: "The investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as...
apologies for my late reply. i note ur comment.

on the trading side, but it seems that whenver i take a trading assuming at 0.40 with a day range of 0.30- 0.60.
as soon as i get filled at 0.40 , the price now goes to 0.60.

if im entering a call, i would have lost much . is this a normal thing or is it just me ?
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