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Could this be an easy way to win in forex?

  • #141
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:03am Jul 22, 2013 4:03am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} I have to disagree with you. You could only say that you have a 50/50 balanced chance in forex trading if you don't understand how the major players work. Without this understanding, you are a gambler or a technical analysis gambler. At the swing peak, which can be identified once you're proficient, the probability of reversal is so high, you simply cannot say within 24/48 hours price will come back. No, to come back requires real equity commitment to move the price back and that would cause a loss to the major players. They would not do...
you simply cannot say within 24/48 hours price will come back.

I never said that within 24/48 hours the price will come back
because I am sure no one knows for sure,
where prices will move 10 minutes ahead, or 1 hour ahead or 1 day ahead, and so on
is all about probability
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #142
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:49pm Jul 22, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting sandycarrot
{quote} you simply cannot say within 24/48 hours price will come back. I never said that within 24/48 hours the price will come back because I am sure no one knows for sure, where prices will move 10 minutes ahead, or 1 hour ahead or 1 day ahead, and so on is all about probability
That's right. There's nothing sure in trading. But once you've become proficient, you'll know where the top and the bottom are and you can say, with a high probability, where price would be in the near future. Like I've said, once the major players reverse the price, there is a very high probability that price will not come back for a certain period.
  • #143
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:17pm Jul 22, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Ishtana
I'm amazed at how even the default indi on my MT4 terminal provide such uh... bad, but-in-a-good-way indi. Here are the 4 top best performing indis for this strategy on MT4 default. Stoch, CCI, %R, and DeMark. All on standard settings. Works wonderfully from 15M TF up. Everytime this indi fires a signal according to common usage, there is a constant and significant continuation of the previous trend, albeit small. Magic. I don't understand why these work, but they just do. {image}
Because there is a loser to toa winner alot of big players will goat ppl into false signals. This is way all prices behave 90% of the time. However dealing with a smaller tp will mean you will have a higher losing rate due to the spread. You must find a balance. Here is a nugget i will share with u looking at your char: look for a signal os means sell and
ob means buy but only if there is a hogher high for buy or lower low for sell. Do this and you will have a bigger edge than the spread and you will make money long term.

If spread is not an issue u should be in th e hft game.

Btw this forum sucks after their last facelift im done here. Non iphone friendly
  • #144
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:20am Jul 25, 2013 4:20am
The reason this doesn't work, is there are no real signals.
Forex market is a zero sum game. In the long term, whether you buy or you sell on whatever your indicator says you will be breakeven. During some period of time your indicator will give you a winning chance of maybe 80% but in the next month it maybe 20%. You just never know when it will be good and when it wont't. In the long run almost every indicator will be around 50% because the market is way more random people want to believe. (you will realize the fastest way creating simple EAs and backtest for 5+ years).

There may be edges in forex market, but those edges are small. The problem comes with the trading cost. If u have tp/sl of say 10 pips and 1 pip spread means that you need to beat the market by 10% on EVERY trade just to be breakeven. This is the reason 95% traders lose in the long run.
  • #145
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:24am Jul 25, 2013 5:24am
Quoting pwnpwn
The reason this doesn't work, is there are no real signals. Forex market is a zero sum game. In the long term, whether you buy or you sell on whatever your indicator says you will be breakeven. During some period of time your indicator will give you a winning chance of maybe 80% but in the next month it maybe 20%. You just never know when it will be good and when it wont't. In the long run almost every indicator will be around 50% because the market is way more random people want to believe. (you will realize the fastest way creating simple EAs...
Yes, but on the other hand if you look to get in on long trends and ride them out as much as possible... Only, people like fast cash return
  • #146
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:52am Jul 25, 2013 5:52am
Quoting MedievalEcon
{quote} Yes, but on the other hand if you look to get in on long trends and ride them out as much as possible... Only, people like fast cash return
What do you mean with long trend? If u say you want to trade with a tp of like 100 pips instead of 10 i agree with you because it would reduce your trading cost to just 1% taken my example. Now you just have to beat the market with only 1%, but now other problems occur. The amount of "signals" to start a trade is now probably reduced to 1/10. Less trades not only means less winnings, it also means you have to back/forward test way longer to get a reliable number if you really found an edge or just random winnings. It's not rare to be +100% up after 500 trades just to drop to zero after 750 trades with a system.
Say you have 1 Signal a day you realize how big variance can be.

I would't say you can't profit long term, but its tougher most people think. I also disagree with the argument it's just about psychlogy. most of the time the variance plays games with us. We often start winning with a system which true expected outcome is zero and after we lose we say it's because we were not disciplined enough. But thats another topic
  • #147
  • Jul 25, 2013 7:39am Jul 25, 2013 7:39am
Quoting pwnpwn
{quote} What do you mean with long trend? If u say you want to trade with a tp of like 100 pips instead of 10 i agree with you because it would reduce your trading cost to just 1% taken my example. Now you just have to beat the market with only 1%, but now other problems occur. The amount of "signals" to start a trade is now probably reduced to 1/10. Less trades not only means less winnings, it also means you have to back/forward test way longer to get a reliable number if you really found an edge or just random winnings. It's not rare to be +100%...

I don't follow a strict system though. I will enter , for example, long E/U trade now and then see it through to 1.34. Instead of SL i'll put double the contract size at 1.3080 to sell. And then just wait for this to play out. Given Some other pair I will react in a diff manner depending on what I see on that chart.
  • #148
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:54am Jul 25, 2013 8:54am
Quoting MedievalEcon
{quote} I don't follow a strict system though. I will enter , for example, long E/U trade now and then see it through to 1.34. Instead of SL i'll put double the contract size at 1.3080 to sell. And then just wait for this to play out. Given Some other pair I will react in a diff manner depending on what I see on that chart.

Sorry to say but this is just not going to work.
You can change the lot size, you change the risk:reward ratio, you can change the s/l:tp ratio, you can change position when losing or when winning...
It's all meaningless bs and will result in losing money as long as you don't have an edge. "seeing things" on chart is not an edge.
  • #149
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:03am Jul 25, 2013 9:03am
Quoting pwnpwn
{quote} Sorry to say but this is just not going to work. You can change the lot size, you change the risk:reward ratio, you can change the s/l:tp ratio, you can change position when losing or when winning... It's all meaningless bs and will result in losing money as long as you don't have an edge. "seeing things" on chart is not an edge.
My edge is that I'm not vulnerable to stop hunting, spread manipulation by brokers and random daily volatility. Long ago a veteran broker explained to me that this new age of digital trading by large institutions leaves only weekly and monthly charts so to say open for us retail traders to take advantage of. I'm sorry to say but everything else is just pure gambling. I have some rules like max 1:1 r:r AND ETC. bUT IT'S NOTHING MAJOR AND DESERVING to be named a "system". As no systems work all the time, we traders have to "move like the water" most of the time.
And also, this works for me.
  • #150
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:20am Jul 25, 2013 9:20am
Quoting MedievalEcon
{quote} My edge is that I'm not vulnerable to stop hunting, spread manipulation by brokers and random daily volatility....
This just means you are preventing your trades from having a chance of less than 50% to succeed but it's still not an edge over the market.

To the part of weekly and monthly charts i highly agree. It's way easier to find an edge here because those moves can actually be based on real facts
  • #151
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:58am Jul 25, 2013 9:58am
Why not just learn how to trade price action and be in the 5% that do make money. Frustration of not knowing how to trade makes you come up with all kinds of non objective angles. Just learn to trade
  • #152
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:31am Sep 2, 2013 8:31am
I think people lose in Forex due to lack of knowledge and they do not aware of trading updates. So we should update ourselves with the new trends of trading.
  • #153
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:19am Sep 2, 2013 10:19am
I already was programming an Ea and it turned out that it performed better in the backtest after i switched the signal.

Just one thing to ur setup.

If you have ur original singal direction with TP=20 and SL=10 and a Win/Loss-Ratio of 20/80% u will not get
a Win/Loss Ratio of 80/20 if u switch Entrysignal and keep using TP=20 and SL=10

This would only work if SL and TP are equal when used in both directions

Just my 2 cent
  • #154
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:03pm Nov 1, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting PipMeUp
Crazy how quickly this kind of threads can grow... Gumrai spent some time explaining it cannot work. He's right. Here Ishtana, I propose you another way of looking at the issue: maths! I know people don't like maths because they give a definitive answer and the answer is often NO. People prefer Believing YES, they worship Holy Grail... You're proposing simple binary outcome systems. Either you win TP or lose SL. You can change these variables to say you win R times your, now unit, risk. R is you R:R. A system is profitable in the long run if its...
This part caught my attention:

" The rule "buy 20/sell 80" works great in ranges. When the market trends half the time you're against the trend the second half you take profit too early. You often win small in range and lose very big in the trends."

If it's true that the market is ranging about 70% of the time, then using the stochastic indicator (with the rule "buy 20/sell 80") ALL the time and, typically, with a small stop loss ('cause you're presumably entering trades at high/low points), would surely end up making consistent profits. The assumption that one would lose very big in trending markets, when using a 'ranging markets technique' doesn't make sense to me, 'cause the stop loss stays the same, regardless...

The argument that you would have many small losses during trending market times, also doesn't hold water, 'cause you wouldn't just keep on taking one (losing) trade after another - and besides, also trending markets have 'retracements', which you're bound to catch partly too, meaning, you wouldn't lose all your trades (using the stochastic indicator with the "buy 20/sell 80" rule)...

One more thing. The statement "I know people don't like maths because they give a definitive answer and the answer is often NO." uncovers a typical so called 'scientific' viewpoint on things (not only regarding trading, but anything else in life too). I used to think like that too, 'till I found out that science would have definitive answers IF the world (the universe, life, existence, ...) had absolute logic at its core. Well, that's nothing more than the scientifically orientated person's pipe dream (poor Einstein :-)

Just my 2 x 2 x 2 cents...
95% of the people don't believe 100% they can win, that's why they lose
  • #155
  • Nov 3, 2013 4:57am Nov 3, 2013 4:57am
Quoting Ishtana
Let's start with the almost-axiom that majority of traders lose money. These traders cannot be called traders, because real traders make money. Real traders have the discipline, knowledge, and persistence.

Not quite. Real traders build inventory when the price is favourable. The inventory is released for a profit when the situation allows. Most so called "traders", are not traders. They are gamblers. They place bets casino style: putting the chips down and see what happens. Traders generally play a much longer and deeper game and are masters of capitalisation and have innate ability to deal with the uncertainties in a fluctuating market. The gamblers, well, they lose like most casino players would in a game of chance.
  • #156
  • Last Post: Dec 6, 2023 7:32am Dec 6, 2023 7:32am
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Thanks to the creator of this topic. Thanks to it, I found my own method.
It's really effective when you open your head and practice what the creator of this theme said.
It's really hard to believe but it's inexplicably true. You are so smart. If explained theoretically, it will never be possible to find the truth that the author talked about. Awesome.
Although the article is old, I accidentally read it. Is that God guiding me? If you can read this please know that I am very grateful to you. Love
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