The Basket14 EAs (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=252521) had some interesting and often profitable features but clearly we never achieved the much-sought-after all-weather, all-terrain strategy. I recently revisited that old thread it got me thinking -- there are some key things we were all missing.
Using the same lot sizes for all currency pairs is not correct, and all of those EAs gave every currency pair the same lot size. We can't have a perfect synthetic hedge unless lot sizes are all correct.
The "death by a thousand cuts" phenomenon was seen by most who ran the EAs for any length of time. Too many trims and things go south. This happens when the market wanders around with no decisive steam behind it, which it can easily do for long enough to hurt. This has to be conquered.
We never quite got to where we could clearly see the expansion and contraction (or convergence/divergence) of the two sides of the synthetic hedge. This is a big key, I think, for picking our entries.
I haven't done any MT4 coding for a while but know I could get back on that bike quickly. It's not a matter of being able to code, but nailing the right strategy to code.
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I acknowledge Trader101's "settling" concept where we open virtual trades and watch for the two sides to settle to all-positive and all-negative, as well as his idea to use 14 hedged pairs. However, my implementations of how these pairs are traded and what is done after the trades have settled are ideas he did not introduce, to the best of my knowledge.
Now I have some brand new ideas that have only occurred to me today as I sit at home and review some of my old EAs and threads on this forum.
Fresh idea #1: Let virtual/phantom trades settle before opening any real trades; Buy the 7 pairs that went negative and Sell the 7 pairs that went positive. Reset the phantom trades upon opening the 14 real trades.
Fresh idea #2: Use a different criterion for closing and reversing the biggest loser. Close and reverse one biggest-loser pair after the buy pairs and the sell pairs have settled to all positive and all negative again. Reset the phantom trades upon closing the biggest loser.
Old idea: Get the lot sizes correct! It won't be a perfect synthetic hedge otherwise.
Using the same lot sizes for all currency pairs is not correct, and all of those EAs gave every currency pair the same lot size. We can't have a perfect synthetic hedge unless lot sizes are all correct.
The "death by a thousand cuts" phenomenon was seen by most who ran the EAs for any length of time. Too many trims and things go south. This happens when the market wanders around with no decisive steam behind it, which it can easily do for long enough to hurt. This has to be conquered.
We never quite got to where we could clearly see the expansion and contraction (or convergence/divergence) of the two sides of the synthetic hedge. This is a big key, I think, for picking our entries.
I haven't done any MT4 coding for a while but know I could get back on that bike quickly. It's not a matter of being able to code, but nailing the right strategy to code.
___
I acknowledge Trader101's "settling" concept where we open virtual trades and watch for the two sides to settle to all-positive and all-negative, as well as his idea to use 14 hedged pairs. However, my implementations of how these pairs are traded and what is done after the trades have settled are ideas he did not introduce, to the best of my knowledge.
Now I have some brand new ideas that have only occurred to me today as I sit at home and review some of my old EAs and threads on this forum.
Fresh idea #1: Let virtual/phantom trades settle before opening any real trades; Buy the 7 pairs that went negative and Sell the 7 pairs that went positive. Reset the phantom trades upon opening the 14 real trades.
Fresh idea #2: Use a different criterion for closing and reversing the biggest loser. Close and reverse one biggest-loser pair after the buy pairs and the sell pairs have settled to all positive and all negative again. Reset the phantom trades upon closing the biggest loser.
Old idea: Get the lot sizes correct! It won't be a perfect synthetic hedge otherwise.
Open to new approaches.