C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

swing trade

http://i.imgur.com/vovsWbD.png

http://i.imgur.com/ye37cyr.png

http://i.imgur.com/pcmXAxB.png

http://i.imgur.com/2GWCqFD.png

Nice swing trades. Especially the GBP/AUD ones. Well done Infest.

May I ask how do enter the market? I can see your target is the opposite level. But some of your entries seem to be before the demand level is determined by the indicators. Could you please explain?

Thanks.

I take trades with the trend based on H4 zones and reaction close to it with engulfs or creating fresh zone close to the zone.

Depending on strength of level and how strong the trend is, i often take touch trades...

bought GBPNZD at a nice m30 demand zone until next H4 supply zone ... trend continuation

about 130 pips

http://i.imgur.com/VQxL4Pb.png

UJ

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/2023/h7mq.png

Yen pairs offered some swing opportunity... I got in after PA on H4 on all of them, managing was a bit different on CHFJPY

UJ: Still in with 1/3 for swing trade short
http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/8486/px1.png

CHFJPY H4 view:
http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/1345/gioa.png

Entry based on H4, stop was based on a fresh M15 level, since it was still kind of countertrend and I wasnt 100% sure it will go for swing, i decided to risk a bit at a fresh created M15 supply zone with stop above... worked out

http://i.imgur.com/CERtJZm.png

EURJPY H1 - a bit early entry there... could have as well failed...

http://i.imgur.com/o18axi5.png

GBPJPY H4: Entry after H4 bearish engulf in big H4 supply zone from past

http://i.imgur.com/qN2wh55.png

Hi Infest, great trades!

One question, for your CHFJPY, you mentioned that you placed your stop above a fresh and newly created M15 zone. However I'm puzzled because at the time of entry, it wouldn't have looked like a supply zone yet and there was only a prior single small red candle. How did you determine that as a supply zone, was it based on the indicator? I personally would have be wary as price might want to test the supply zone or S/R flip level which was slightly higher. Also, were you concerned about the over exposure to yen pairs, or you had already managed your risk accordingly before taking new entries? Thanks!

Entered this trade with 2 positions. each had a 3 pip SL. First position had a TP of 3:1 R/R .. Second position had a TP of 4:1 R/R



Price progressing towards 1st TP



Took profit on 1st TP .. actually got 10 pips



Took profit on 2nd TP for 12 pips



Over higher TF .. Reason for the trade in this direction.

1) Price made a strong move away from the 15M level on very high volume indicated by the 2 dotted vertical lines. Volume overall higher than the previous price action. Looking at volume ( price activity in Forex ) within this context tells me, this is were the SM's really started their move.
2) Price then meanders downward, then sideways creating the Base.. Volume continues to decline overall.
3) Price creates a HL from the bottom of the Base.
4) I now look to get long ( Pattern within the Pattern ) on a smaller TF -1M as price should be pulled back into he higher TF. This is what I call a Magnet Trade.

Price is acting like Magnet and returning back to the higher TF.. Price being pulled ' like a magnet' back the Supply Level.
We are trading the 1M but the Supply Level is based on the 15M. The higher TF's generally takes control over the smaller TF.

We still maintain correct R/R at 3:1 and 4:1 for TP's. All that's left is position sizing.. Increasing each position to 2 Lots would definitely give you a nice return.

That would be an aggressive trade as the Daily indicates to me that the Magnet is Demand @ the 93.23 area. We also have a series of LH's

If price does climb back up to our 15M Supply..and I am still awake..LOL.. Here's were I would get short with the larger position size. It all depends on how price arrives at this level?



Looking at the 60M we see this level showing the highest volume almost throughout the entire price swing. ( blue horizontal line in volume) Again, viewing volume within the context of the overall price movement, helps define a possible area that opportunity that may present itself.

Good trading to all

TSD

Great stuff guys. I'm still around but grinding it out trying to make a full time career out of this. I will admit it is far tougher than I anticipated.

I realized that taking so many small losers can have a huge psychological impact and it can really hurt your game. I'm trying to move away from M1 levels and touch trading and start taking engulfs and retests off fresh M15 levels but still using M5 as execution.

Sure it hits the RR quite a bit but you can build confidence by taking far fewer hits. Anyway, on the EU scalps.

I love your honesty its so refreshing in this game of smoking mirrors. I realise your busy trading live so this is only a ..."
if you have time and when you are able "....type request:-)

I'd love to see a chart with maybe a few comments to explain your arrived at style .....

It would very helpful for me and others I'm sure, to see/read how you have evolved into this style after the live trading environment you have been in for a number of months. Especially coming after a "touch" style. Yes, the emotional hits of a number of loss albeit small ones are difficult. Less RvR but less losers, its a constant trade off.

Thanks again for all the insight and help you've freely given since the thread began and most of all for your transparency...............

Cheers, I will write more info on going full time... My thought process coming into today was the USDX stuck in middle of nowhere with a possible move up to H4 supply.

Anyway, we always have to put all bias aside and play the levels and unfolding price action.

The first buy was a touch trade off the overnight M15/M30 demand. I then waited patiently to confirm the upper level would hold with M15 PA (probably waited too long) Thankfully we got a little news spike into fresh M15 supply and I was quick enough to react on the sell.

Once demand had been taken out 1.32 was a very clear target for the day. I did try my old ways and try to catch a counter bounce that failed so cut and reverse as soon as I got taken out for a 4 pip loss.

Here's the M15 chart.

Thanks C-12 that was very helpful. So you entered with a sell market order and your did not have a sell limit order waiting in the newly formed 15m supply, am I understanding you correctly?

Do you usually use limit orders to catch a move back into a fresh SD level or do you watch PA and enter on a market order as you see PA unfolding?

If a combination of both market and limit if you don't mind me asking how many pairs do you watch? And how many trades would an average day generate? Lastly....(for now:-)) are you still with Pepperstone?

Thanks..............

PS: I have been a follower since you began the thread so I have taken the time to read all your posts and my questions flow out of an appreciation of your style and an attempt to understand your reasons for tweaking and improving your style as you become more at ease with your live trading environment.

No I don't use limit orders. I use the horizontal alarm line just ahead of my levels which gives me usually enough time to get in fast if needed. Mostly I've got a full 27" monitor just for EU on M15 & M5 and the other monitor for GU if there's decent PA. 3rd monitor is purely for USDX.

The regular small losses were causing me a lot of frustration and anxiety to the point where I almost was nervous to even get into a trade. My old M1 style was very much smash and grab and try and run some but it's very hard to make a career out of this method. Higher time frame levels are far more reliable if traded with PA.

You have to be patient and disciplined, wait for solid confirmation if the level is unclear. I've been working a bit with Ken at AG and I spend a lot of time studying and trying to emulate what he does on scalps.

http://www.acegazette.com/blogs/ken/...vs-us-dollars/

Oh yes, the broker is LMAX. All good so far (GU spread slightly higher). No withdrawals as yet but I expect no problems.

I trade SD similar to you/Ken/Sam Seiden but on the 4hr and sometimes the 1hr. Though I do use limit orders that I mark off beforehand. This suits me but I know everyone has their own way that feels comfortable and works for them. My problem was not so much taking my 1% loss on a loser (though it still hurt and had an effect) it was cutting winning trades short and banking profits too early (0.3% or 0.6% etc) or worst still moving my SL to BE and getting stopped out for a BE trade that then motored away to a multi RR winner and I was left looking on.

So I realised that I was sabotaging my own trades and ending up with small/medium winners, lots of BE and full 1% losses. Now I try to place my orders and walk away from the computer and check every 3-4 hours on each 4hr bar close. Just like Ken seems to do....but I hasten to add I'm no Ken!!!! More like Ken as a trading toddler LOL Still lots to learn and many mistakes ahead of me. Ken is a master at holding his nerve until his target is hit, I'm a million miles from that yet. But I'm trying.

Trading live is the way to go as it speeds the learning process up big time. We can fool ourselves on demo and forget about our big losers and focus on our big winners but when live trading the big losses are real and there is no wiping the slate clean unless it costs you dearly. Sharpens the mind and makes us be realistic. Sure demo is good to learn the platform and get yourself ready but IMHO as soon as you can get a mico account/0.10cents a pips or an Oando account for 0.1cents a pip, put a couple of $100 in it and trade 1% per trade and feel the emotional rollercosters of even losing a few dollars when its real money albeit small. Better losing a $1000 via a 500-1000 live trades (taking into account a small amount of winners to keep the account viable) in a nano or micro account than pay some so called trading educator a $1000 for stuff you can get fro free on the web. After a 500-1000 live trades you've a good idea if trading off a 1min chart will work for you or if you need to watch 50 pairs on the daily TF. Or if you are a natural born scalper or a swing trader.

The most important thing for me to learn was what type of trader I was deep in my DNA that I could do long term. I wanted to be a scalper with 5-10 SL and banking 3-4 RR trades and a few 10+ RR trades per week but after a few years of stubborn refusal to accept the facts that this was not for me and hopping from one system to another (and paying for the privilege!) it dawned on me I needed to find my own way. Sure Sam S and Ken sent me off on the right direction but I needed to find a combination that I felt comfortable with.
Phewwwwwwww where did that ramble come from.....sorry....

Anyway I look forward to hear your take on live trading fulltime and the ups and down along the way. Especially the way you became aware of the need to change some things to be in harmony with how you need to trade to suit your personality and emotional strengths and weaknesses. A weakness realised and acknowledged is fast becoming a strength. For me I'm grinding out a 30 win 70 loser trade ratio but a 1.3 profit factor and approximately a 1% gain per day. No spectacular wins or trades, just learning as I go and embracing my mistakes as steps on the path . But this has been on demo (so I was talking to myself above!!!!) but am going live with a $1000 account using IC Markets micro lots and 1% per trade next week as soon as funds clear. Maybe I'll be, as the old songs says....."another one bites the dust" only time will tell

Hi C-12

Im trading this kind of set ups, its the only method that make sense and seems to work well in the long run, some time ago i was trading small timefeames and i couldn't find any consistent profit, and i thing that we want to try 1m or 5m to trade for fast amd easy profits.i dont know if we can make a living of trading small tf. I think that small time frames behave more like a vote counting machine and higher time frames are more like a scale. So i decided to stick with this method in h4 and d1.

Roberto

C--12 Red and green indicator RSI can share it? Thank you

Here we had 2 pending orders for a total of about 4 lots. I was taken on the first order but my second, deeper order, was left sitting at the gate. Ultimate TP is the 1HR Supply.



A better view of the current PA.



Our move is well underway.



So why use the 1HR when trading the 1M? This is what I call a Magnet Trade. The higher has control of the pattern DBR. All we are doing is looking for a level on the smaller TF, that really stands out, to get long. Screen shot #3 shows this level. See the white vertical dotted line. Volume on the wide spread candle ( relative terms ) vs. the preceding volume against corresponding PA says to me, this is were the SM's made their move. Forex volume shows activity.. If you look at from a point of high activity and wide range candles vs. preceding PA that may have higher volume with wide range candles, this was the strongest.



Here is a 1HR view of the PA. Basically a text book pattern on the 1HR and PA appearing to be moving aggressively into the 1HR Supply.



Finished our trade with 69 pips.


Now the question is should we get short on the 1HR Supply Level. This has always been a nagging question. How do we determine the opportunity... Let's look?? We see that volume and spread has shown us very strong level of Daily Supply overhead. The Basing Pattern is well underway showing HL's preceding this move long. I would pass on the 1HR as the Daily Supply is very strong. See the blue horizontal line drawn below on Volume. Since about the first part of April..Volume/Activity has not reach the level that we currently have picked out. ( vertical dotted line ) We do see some good Wide Range Candles but the strength of the corresponding volume is not as strong. Finally, levels this strong tend to act like Price Magnets ( hence I coined the phrase Magnet Trade which is what the above trade was ) Had to apply some definition to this type of trade...





TSD

Another thing I like here is your brokers spread. I have a method that can consistently give me 8 to 15 pip scalping on 15min tf daily on single pair but however, my broker's cheapest spread is just 2 - 3 pips on major and 6 - 9 pips on non-major plus re-quotes issue. This issue has frustrated my method as most of the trades are killed by spread/requotes/slippage. I like it because I do not have to be in front of the PC scalping all day. Just one signals each from any of the session. Sometimes one signal or non at all

Please where can I get a good broker that supports my style of trading with spread starting from 0. ? My capital is below 1k.

oz scalp

Pepperstone and Armada markets, for example.

Live broker spreads you have here: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-spreads