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Cinderella

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jul 29, 2013 1:12am Jul 28, 2013 5:18pm | Edited Jul 29, 2013 1:12am
Hi all,
welcome to my new thread. I am testing a new strategy here. My strategy is based on strong trend and adding position in my losing trades. I add position when I feel I am with strong trends. I just right now trading in my demo and after some periods I shall implement this system in a real account. I want to trade in DEMO at least 6 months.
Give me some wishes and good lucks with my new strategy. I shall discuss my entry and exit time to time.
Regards
  • #2
  • Jul 30, 2013 3:13am Jul 30, 2013 3:13am
good demo results. hope to see your trading methods, thank you
btw, are you trading manual or by EA?
  • #3
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:54am Jul 30, 2013 4:54am
Quoting cainiaobu
good demo results. hope to see your trading methods, thank you btw, are you trading manual or by EA?
Thanx for participating in my thread. yes of course I shall discuss my methods time to time.

My Trading philosophy:
My major approach is FUNDAMENTAL. I use Technical to trigger my trades but my main card is fundamental. I keep an eye on what's going on over the world. I use Speculation basically to catch the big trend. Say I shall catch the next big fall or rise of EU . You know guys EU is controlling the market. So it will control my trades too. I shall discuss here many fundamental issues who are interested can share your opinions here.What the other things I shall use? I shall use Trend Line, Support Resistance Zones, Channel, Divergence, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Price Action, Pattern or confluence of Technical Instruments. But my main confluence is Fundamental and Technical I use to catch the big trend like 500+ pips trend or more powerful trend.
A trend in currency market does not change over the night, this is the main attractive thing in FOREX market and my main focus. I don't care about day whipsaws in the market, that is not my concern, I care about what the big guys behind the scenes is thinking, how are making the market. Main trend does not occur daily and I just want to be with the trend.
Risk of using Fundamentals in the market:
Major risk is wrong prediction, and that time TA will help me. If say according to Fundamental EU is long but market is showing short, I shall wait for confluence of fundamental and technical. That's in summary. I shall discuss my some entry and exit as though it can clear my approach more clearly.

My risk minimization:
I shall not tolerate draw down more than 15% in my account. As I analyze trends, a currency can go opposite of trade say about 300 pips, I don't bother about it if it is in strong trend. I shall add positions in negative 300 pips. I shall discuss all of this with the course of time.
Today up to this.
Regards
Kawser
  • #4
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:17am Aug 7, 2013 2:17am
USDJPY may hit 92 or below as I think Shinzō Abe(Japanese Prime Minister) will pause printing more JPY. Printing money will come in phase by phase. Let's see.
  • #5
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:52am Aug 7, 2013 2:52am
Why I don't like Stop Loss based system in FOREX?
FOREX market is highly manipulated. Actually the whole world is highly manipulated. In FOREX about 10-12 Banks are controlling the 50% volume of everyday volume as their Proprietary trading or inter country trade transactions. Billionaire Hedge Funds are trading through those Super Banks. And our brokers . They are sharks, they are makers of the market with the help of Super Banks, the ultimate liquidity provider.
When we lose money, they laugh. When we earns money, they cries . So they try every way not to cry, they eat your calls in every possible ways. They see your Stop Loss, they make maths where they can maximize their profits eating the most possible stop losses. This is a game.
So far I know only 5-7% people are profitable. So in this market where you are naked to the makers who are taking advantages of decentralized market, I don't have any hope of pure SL based system. Obviously this is my personal opinion.
Then what is my Risk minimization?
You must have a risk minimization system in every financial market. I target not to risk more than 12-15% of my equity in trends, but if the trend is reversal I quit the trend in lower losses. I quit all my open trades if the account faces 12-15% draw down.
Regards
  • #6
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:35am Aug 8, 2013 12:35am
will follow with interest

however you will reach a DD of 12-15% without stop losses very soon.

good luck.
  • #7
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:06pm Aug 14, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting yonnie
will follow with interest however you will reach a DD of 12-15% without stop losses very soon. good luck.
Thanx for posting in my thread.
I try not to manage all the trades, I also take losses when I see the trend is totally against me fundamentally and technically.
Regards.
  • #8
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:16am Aug 15, 2013 12:16am
the very best system I`ve seen on the net for this type of trading is from DonQijote/mstefa:

fxtrade.oanda.com/community/forex-forum/topic/15006264/?page=10

you also have to know when to change direction or look for another pair, because after all trends do end you know.

I am implementing this system myself.
  • #9
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:15am Aug 15, 2013 4:15am
Quoting yonnie
the very best system I`ve seen on the net for this type of trading is from DonQijote/mstefa: fxtrade.oanda.com/community/forex-forum/topic/15006264/?page=10 you also have to know when to change direction or look for another pair, because after all trends do end you know. I am implementing this system myself.

That person in your link, make trade on the basis of Interest Positive, I mean say AUD has higher interest rate than USD, so he will trade long in AU. That year may give him handsome return but when the market is prepared for Interest Rate cut and he goes for higher Interest Positive then definitely he will blow out his account in year like 2007-08 and recent years when EU GBP, NZD AUD got huge fall due to Interest Cut. Just see the chart of AU recent 3-4 months.

Personally I trade policy and economical condition. Say Australia's economy is crunching, inflation is down and other indicator is signing bearishness, whatever the Interest Rate of Australia, I shall go short for AU.
See the recent policy of JPY. After election, JPY has lost his value due to just BOJ policy made after election. So Fundamental and Policy with Trend Analysis is best strategy for me.
Regards.
  • #10
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:17am Aug 15, 2013 4:17am
I shall explain things of Fundamental, Economical and Policy Related in this thread step by step within short time. I just need some time for personal stuffs around me to be finished.
  • #11
  • Edited 7:17pm Aug 15, 2013 6:48pm | Edited 7:17pm
Quoting kawser
{quote} That person in your link, make trade on the basis of Interest Positive, I mean say AUD has higher interest rate than USD, so he will trade long in AU. That year may give him handsome return but when the market is prepared for Interest Rate cut and he goes for higher Interest Positive then definitely he will blow out his account in year like 2007-08 and recent years when EU GBP, NZD AUD got huge fall due to Interest Cut. Just see the chart of AU recent 3-4 months. Personally I trade policy and economical condition. Say Australia's economy...
no, that is the beauty of it.

he went through a 2,000 pip wobble in July 2007 and at its worst he was down 30% in DD, but recovered completely.

in November 2007 he felt the change in the wind and went long yen.

anyway, good luck with your journal.
  • #12
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:44am Aug 22, 2013 2:44am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} no, that is the beauty of it. he went through a 2,000 pip wobble in July 2007 and at its worst he was down 30% in DD, but recovered completely. in November 2007 he felt the change in the wind and went long yen. anyway, good luck with your journal.
Yonnie can you explain how he managed only 30% DD when his trade is 2000 pips negative. I am interested really.
  • #13
  • Edited 7:33am Aug 23, 2013 3:51am | Edited 7:33am
hi kawser,

you`re better off to go through that thread and look for his posts. there are not many, maybe 15 posts.

he looks for a trending pair paying a high interest.
he averages in when the trade goes against him, but he is very picky in how he enters later. no stop loss.

he`s only interested in averaging in if price drops at least 3.5-4x daily ATR from his last trade. then he watches if price is going up again for a few days. if he is happy, he places a buy stop above the last price and if hit has another trade.
if price doesn`t hit the buy stop order and goes south, he wont buy.
he only buys again when price proves it wants to go up again and always at least 3.5-4x daily ATR from the last trade.
he`ll never buy at certain intervals say down 500 pips: price has to stall, go up 1-2 days and then place a buy stop order above the high of the last candle. avoiding falling knives

he also adds on the way up.

so why only 30% DD?
because he will have bought at large intervals say 130.00 - 125.50 - 119.75 - 112.75 etc.

he also traded 6-7 other pairs, but they mainly tanked as well. he found diversifying in other high interest paying pairs not very useful.

what helped him however were his trades in gold, which cushened the DD.
when dd grows, look around what might hedge your floating losses somewhat.

his leverage was not that high at 10:1 in normal circumstances.

at the moment I have to pay a little interest, but I`m short A/N for a while, which has a beautiful trend.
  • #14
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:25pm Aug 24, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting yonnie
hi kawser, you`re better off to go through that thread and look for his posts. there are not many, maybe 15 posts. he looks for a trending pair paying a high interest. he averages in when the trade goes against him, but he is very picky in how he enters later. no stop loss. he`s only interested in averaging in if price drops at least 3.5-4x daily ATR from his last trade. then he watches if price is going up again for a few days. if he is happy, he places a buy stop above the last price and if hit has another trade. if price doesn`t hit the buy stop...
Thanx Yonnie for explanation. I shall analyze his posts.
  • #15
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:13am Aug 28, 2013 1:13am
I am long and will longing in USD pairs. Emerging countries like Turkey, India is losing their currency values sharply. People are interested buying US assets due to shutting down their QE anymore, increasing REAL Estate Sector, booming stock market and many more. I am interested to buy USD related pair more.
Just see the chart of USD/INR and USD/TRY charts. GOLD will lose its values sharply. The uptrend it is maintaining will diminish within short time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDINR.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY.png Size: 26 KB
  • #16
  • Aug 28, 2013 2:50pm Aug 28, 2013 2:50pm
kawser,

not so sure about gold.........its up since June 25 and the possible involvement of the USA in the war in Syria might help it to go higher still. oil up too maybe........
  • #17
  • Aug 28, 2013 10:46pm Aug 28, 2013 10:46pm
Quoting yonnie
kawser, not so sure about gold.........its up since June 25 and the possible involvement of the USA in the war in Syria might help it to go higher still. oil up too maybe........
GOLD is short in higher time frame. But Yes you are right, still it is long in lower time frame. Lets make short in lower TF for confirming short.
  • #18
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:41am Aug 29, 2013 10:41am
Syria issue is making USD stronger.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Aug 29, 2013 6:58pm Aug 29, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting kawser
Syria issue is making USD stronger.
yes that's what happens in these uncertain times.........flight from the emerging currencies to the stronger base currencies usd and jpy.
you might have left it a bit late to buy and personally I would wait and see.
at least I would wait for a decent retrace and if the trend continues, jump in.

I`m more inclined to have a look at the charts of BRL/RUB/INR say once a month and if these currencies go up, go short and rake in the interest a la Don Qijote/mstefa

- oil and possibly gold up as well.

got to be careful though; the effects might not last long if its not an all out war and that is quite likely.
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