Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 83 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,641
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:57am Aug 29, 2013 7:57am
Quoting panamamike
Eurnzd short triggered. {image}
My entry on EURNZD didn't trigger yet, my H4 candles differ from yours. I hate the fact that we can have so many different candle setups in this unregulated forex market! But well, we just have to trade what we see on our charts

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,642
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:09am Aug 29, 2013 8:09am
Exactly. I have noticed that on some of your charts as well. Sometimes a speed bump on 4hr on your chart is not a speed bump on mine.
  • #1,643
  • Edited 8:42am Aug 29, 2013 8:32am | Edited 8:42am
Quick analysis on the Dollar Index (so important for forex trading) using the new % lables displayed by the updated rectangle indicator (read previous posts).

As you can see on this Weekly chart for $index. The new curve % feature is telling us that we are at only 2% of the WK demand (we can see we are bouncing off that WK demand and lots of room to rally.

We also know that we are now too high on the D1 supply (96%), so buying now is not possible, we need a bigger dip to fresh demand areas OR the D1 supply taken out.

On the Monthly we can see that we are at 38%, so we are still low in the curve. Both Weekly and Monthly charts are telling us that it's ok to go long on $index, but we have to wait for:

  1. A bigger pullback to good demand areas
  2. D1 supply being absorbed

IF THEN PROCESSES

  1. If $index breaks D1 supply, THEN we could be "expecting" further drops if it breaks the D1 suppon the euro, pound and so on
  2. IF D1 supply holds and forms brand new supply taking out previous demand, we could be expecting further rallies on the majors

Remember you have to have the new rectangle indicator dragged on your charts, manually draw all your higher timeframe SD areas, and draw those areas with the colors that the indicator will detect as valid SD areas. If you want to use other colors, you will have to change the default colors for each instance of the RR indicator on your charts.

Now off for some climbing and disconnection!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,644
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:45am Aug 29, 2013 8:45am
Quoting panamamike
Exactly. I have noticed that on some of your charts as well. Sometimes a speed bump on 4hr on your chart is not a speed bump on mine.

Maybe this is much better Alfonso.
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  • #1,645
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:49am Aug 29, 2013 8:49am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Maybe this is much better Alfonso. {image} {image}
I do have an order on that one as well. If there is a red level on my chart, then there is a virtual short order right there! That one is better, but the lower H4 speedbump is good according to the rules, so I will take both if the first one fails.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,646
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:49am Aug 29, 2013 8:49am
got trigered in audusd, low in the curve, original demand on D1
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passion and discipline
  • #1,647
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:13am Aug 29, 2013 9:13am
This EUR/USD H4 supply looks like a strong level but didn't violate any demand... However, it do break the support level strongly. Any idea?
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  • #1,648
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:30am Aug 29, 2013 9:30am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} took silver, hope it's not to early. {image}
First attempt was to fast, but as Alfonso said, we should take every valid setup. Hope this try will hold.

PS
Finnaly got my supply and demand colours right.
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  • #1,649
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:36am Aug 29, 2013 9:36am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} First attempt was to fast, but as Alfonso said, we should take every valid setup. Hope this try will hold. PS Finnaly got my supply and demand colours right. {image}
well done Sebkor6, i am also trying to adapt myselft to this mindset.
  • #1,650
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:49am Aug 29, 2013 9:49am
Quoting pres78
Just got triggered into a short on gold. 1hr trendline broken, fresh supply with 4hr supply overhead. {image}
So far so good. Finally hit 3:1 so I closed the first half and moved the second half to BE. I normally close the first half at 1:1 just to bank some profits but decided to play this one a bit different.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,651
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:51am Aug 29, 2013 9:51am
Quoting Crocs
This EUR/USD H4 supply looks like a strong level but didn't violate any demand... However, it do break the support level strongly. Any idea? {image}
EUR USD is just touching not fresh, and not original demand area. We schould wait and see what will happen. Personally, we see strong move down, so i'd prefer seeing price to brake this area down. When price do it, wait for pullback to the nearest supply h4 area.
Second scenario: price will bounce from this area, in this case, we can only take confirmation trades.
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  • #1,652
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:18am Aug 29, 2013 10:18am
Looking good Alfonso don't get cought up in the negative that some of the traders will surely come here and say. Keep focused, and don't bother with distractions. This all looks really good.


Lars
  • #1,653
  • Edited 11:14am Aug 29, 2013 10:31am | Edited 11:14am
Sell limit placed EURCAD 1H supply.

EDIT: Oops, Wrong picture.


Correct picture is now uploaded.

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  • #1,654
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:17am Aug 29, 2013 11:17am
Quoting Axlz
Sell limit placed EURCAD 1H supply. EDIT: Oops, Wrong picture. Correct picture is now uploaded. {image}

to me seems like too much trading in the area!
  • #1,655
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:20am Aug 29, 2013 11:20am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} to me seems like too much trading in the area!
Hmm. Seems pretty normal to me when I compare it to other basing zones.
  • #1,656
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:21am Aug 29, 2013 11:21am
hiii alfonso, been following your method for awhile now..
what you think about my EUROUSD chart?

after closed my sell entries on H4 demand. i open buy short on H4 demand unfresh area within nice imbalance curve..
my targer is looking for new Supply on H4 chart or maybe retest on DBD H4 supply area
question, is it valid, from bigger TF Price just went down from D1 supply +WK fresh & origin....
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pardon me for my bad english.

thx with regards
  • #1,657
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:34am Aug 29, 2013 11:34am
Took usd cad sell
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  • #1,658
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:39am Aug 29, 2013 11:39am
Quoting sebkor6
Took usd cad sell {image} {image} {image}
we are on the same boat my friend
  • #1,659
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:41am Aug 29, 2013 11:41am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} EUR USD is just touching not fresh, and not original demand area. We schould wait and see what will happen. Personally, we see strong move down, so i'd prefer seeing price to brake this area down. When price do it, wait for pullback to the nearest supply h4 area. Second scenario: price will bounce from this area, in this case, we can only take confirmation trades. {image}
Thanks sebkor Will keep an eye on that.
  • #1,660
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:46am Aug 29, 2013 11:46am
Quoting sebkor6
Took usd cad sell {image} {image} {image}

This look good
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