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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,481
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:09am Aug 29, 2013 9:09am
Quoting fti
{quote} vic, are you at the derbys? regards

just wanted to scratch some brain...been there ....though being honest for me the hardest will be to flip...i could fight the long rescue fight....been able with sometime 2 days using what i told earlier...sometimes i flipped....other times i booked the loss which was never more then 3% of capital or 25% of booked profits...





V
  • #42,482
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:11am Aug 29, 2013 9:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} zeigt all the stuff , they trade in usd , not because of what you thinking. No not dominance. Mostly is because of the easy convertability of usd around the world. If you was paid in baht you gonna need find peps who will convert that to what you want. yes small still can find convert but if becomes large , may be a problem? Nah, i not think american will accept slavery. They fought a big war get over that. I think every american will remember that for as long as they live. probably is only want be on top. Be hey, who doesn't. where you...
for this moment, i'm afraid of building my full size position in long direction. It's because of I feel that I won't be able rescue my full position if a sudden drop of 100~200 pips. I'm not trying to predict ... just feel that this strike will easily push down dollar. So i try to avoid it from happening.

sorry for my poor painting
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  • #42,483
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:18am Aug 29, 2013 9:18am
Quoting Zeigt2013
{quote} for this moment, i'm afraid of building my full size position in long direction. It's because of I feel that I won't be able rescue my full position if a sudden drop of 100~200 pips. I'm not trying to predict ... just feel that this strike will easily push down dollar. So i try to avoid it from happening. sorry for my poor painting {image}
mindset my friend mindset.
if market want go to 0.
i will buy the $ to 0 if i need to.

not afraid, but can be killed if i crazy rigid.
Ths reason why , one needs a brain to pull the plug if need to.

Sometimes fear is friend.
but a soldier afraid of battle?
a cowboy afraid of horses?



regards

Inserted Video
  • #42,484
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:33am Aug 29, 2013 9:33am
sometimes i wonder,
if you was trading/market making the ringgit in 1995 1997 period.
some may probably may be bleeding from the balls.

ok ok i need watch my ego.

regards
  • #42,485
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:43am Aug 29, 2013 9:43am
Quoting fti
sometimes i wonder, if you was trading/market making the ringgit in 1995 1997 period. some may probably may be bleeding from the balls. ok ok i need watch my ego. regards
FTI

i can feel there is no ego here from you , its just the right warning ..... you said no SL .... so how you manage this kind of volatility event ?? or how do you protect yourself from this kind of move ... i use SL and it seems its not the smart way to do it ....
  • #42,486
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:48am Aug 29, 2013 9:48am
Quoting fti
sometimes i wonder, if you was trading/market making the ringgit in 1995 1997 period. some may probably may be bleeding from the balls. ok ok i need watch my ego. regards

i know some are in rupee bleeding a lot....they still think it will come back up.....

V
  • #42,487
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:51am Aug 29, 2013 9:51am
Quoting fti
sometimes i wonder, if you was trading/market making the ringgit in 1995 1997 period. some may probably may be bleeding from the balls. ok ok i need watch my ego. regards
you seem like you are work for BNM in that very moment ?
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  • #42,488
  • Edited 10:08am Aug 29, 2013 9:52am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} FTI i can feel there is no ego here from you , its just the right warning ..... you said no SL .... so how you manage this kind of volatility event ?? or how do you protect yourself from this kind of move ... i use SL and it seems its not the smart way to do it ....
seriously

making pips? realigning positions?
depends on situation.

Oh, how i manage?
trading cash, no leverage. what can happen?
lose all my cash?
probability 0
at less than 3% of networth per pop
seriously probability of ruin is 0.

regards

but can always make it interesting, if interesting things do happens.
can't we?
the trade of a life time? go for brokes.
Is the managers call isn't it?
we the managers.

just rememnered soros, he pop 1 on aud$ made 60 million.
how long does it take spend 60 million?

but of course none of us that class yet,
but hey he wasn't born that class.
he made it trading.
blood sweat and tears.
  • #42,489
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:08am Aug 29, 2013 10:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} seriously making pips? realigning positions? depends on situation. Oh, how i manage? trading cash, no leverage. what can happen? lose all my cash? probability 0 at less than 3% of networth per pop seriously probability of ruin is 0. regards but can always make it interesting, if interesting things do happens. can't we? the trade of a life time? go for brokes. Is the managers call isn't it? we the managers.
Cristal clear FTI ..... be aware that today you just format my brain .... (lucky me ...... ) thank's i'm going to sail this ocean of pips ( both direction long and short ...)
will have to fight my scoprpion.... will be to try not to look at eurusd just with a Short bias ....( will try to stay aware of it )

regards
  • #42,490
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:12am Aug 29, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} Cristal clear FTI ..... be aware that today you just format my brain .... (lucky me ...... ) thank's i'm going to sail this ocean of pips ( both direction long and short ...) will have to fight my scoprpion.... will be to try not to look at eurusd just with a Short bias ....( will try to stay aware of it ) regards
pls no thank me yet, i feel you still have a steep hill climb.
when you succeeded then pay me.

buy me 1 cup of coffee.

1st steps, read thread carefully.
Think and relate stuff to experience. Learn from others experiences here.
most important, internalise what you learn, and respect free market.

regards
  • #42,491
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:20am Aug 29, 2013 10:20am
Quoting fti
{quote} pls no thank me yet, i feel you still have a steep hill climb. when you succeeded then pay me. buy me 1 cup of coffee. 1st steps, read thread carefully. Think and relate stuff to experience. Learn from others experiences here. most important, internalise what you learn, and respect free market. regards

or may be a fish ball soup .... beach road ??

cheers
  • #42,492
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:39am Aug 29, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} Sorry i don't get it ... could you give a bit more details looks interesting ...

once u read 200 pages u will have an idea...


V
  • #42,493
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:28am Aug 29, 2013 11:28am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} FTI i can feel there is no ego here from you , its just the right warning ..... you said no SL .... so how you manage this kind of volatility event ?? or how do you protect yourself from this kind of move ... i use SL and it seems its not the smart way to do it ....
There's no 1 fit all thingy.
SL has its value.
Not in the context some peeps uses it.

When anyone has SL placed, normally is over exposure already.

regards
  • #42,494
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:33am Aug 29, 2013 11:33am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} i know some are in rupee bleeding a lot....they still think it will come back up..... V
well, vic, i not seen markets that no recovers.
needs managing, and good managers with honour standings.

otherwise the damage can be protracted and may take long long long time.
or simply disappears.

question is when markets normalise again, what's the collateral damage like.
For traders, question is how many still stands.
For those who still stand, is just another day in paradise.

regards

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  • #42,495
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:27pm Aug 29, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting fti
{quote} well, vic, i not seen markets that no recovers. needs managing, and good managers with honour standings. otherwise the damage can be protracted and may take long long long time. or simply disappears. question is when markets normalise again, what's the collateral damage like. For traders, question is how many still stands. For those who still stand, is just another day in paradise. regards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clm_mCupk2A

true chief,

at the end it all comes to MM and mindset.

V
  • #42,496
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:28pm Aug 29, 2013 12:28pm
Dear fti
Thank you for all the lesssons.
may GOD be with you always
sweet dreams sleep tight
good night everyone
  • #42,497
  • Edited Aug 30, 2013 12:19am Aug 29, 2013 11:09pm | Edited Aug 30, 2013 12:19am
Quoting fti
{quote} seriously making pips? realigning positions? depends on situation. Oh, how i manage? trading cash, no leverage. what can happen? lose all my cash? probability 0 at less than 3% of networth per pop seriously probability of ruin is 0. regards but can always make it interesting, if interesting things do happens. can't we? the trade of a life time? go for brokes. Is the managers call isn't it? we the managers. just rememnered soros, he pop 1 on aud$ made 60 million. how long does it take spend 60 million? but of course...
Dear FTI,
If you are trading with no leverage, than i suppose your soldiers (capital) are way beyond the grasp of the average retail trader.
With no leverage, risk of ruin is v small, recovery is easier achieved and the success of your campaigns are much higher, not to mention that you are able to pull pips(money) that are able to buy a good dinner.
However, for the retail trader aspiring to make a living out of trading fx, to trade with no leverage / minimal leverage (eg: 1:10) would entail massive amounts of capital.
Assuming a retail trader wants to emulate your capitalization and leverage, and applying your MO/MM, and make an arbitrary livable income of say $5000 a month from fx trading only, he might be looking at , am just throwing in a number, $500,000 capital, trading at 1:10 leverage at the broker end (minimum leverage offered by retail brokers).
If he wants to want to trade at 1:1, then effectively his usable capital is $50,000.
If we were to employ the division of troops like what the pros do, we will be dividing this by 10, and then dividing it by a further 10, to get a base scout size of $500.
Even to make a livable income out of a base size of $500 would mean a lot of pip movement captured on a consistent basis.
(ie. excellent market read / no mistakes / successful attacks / successful rescues / and lots and lots of screentime)

How then, can us mere retails even live to see our dream of trading for a living materialize?
Can you please advise, and maybe knock some sense / wisdom into me ?

Many Thanks, Kind Regards, and a Whole lot of Respect.
  • #42,498
  • Edited Aug 30, 2013 12:23am Aug 29, 2013 11:54pm | Edited Aug 30, 2013 12:23am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Dear FTI, If you are trading with no leverage, than i suppose your soldiers (capital) are way beyond the grasp of the average retail trader. With no leverage, risk of ruin is v small, recovery is easier achieved and the success of your campaigns are much higher, not to mention that you are able to pull pips(money) that are able to buy a good dinner. However, for the retail trader aspiring to make a living out of trading fx, to trade with no leverage / minimal leverage (eg: 1:10) would entail massive amounts of capital. Assuming a retail...

ai yoi
i wake up first thing i see is ranting.

Well all i can say is
if you cannot afford time play golf, don't play golf.
if you no voice, you no become singer.
if you no have skills fly an aircraft, you no become pilot.
if you no penis, please sit down when you pissing.

now apple, even start a stall sell noodles you must have appropriate capital.
we just talk stall rental.
how can you make a business, if you only have sufficient capital for 1 month rental.
can you make a cake with half the ingredients make a cake?
can your car travel with 1 wheel?
can you go seebon jovi concert with half a ticket?

come on you talking cock to me. isnt it?

when you trade leverage you in fact borrowing capital.
and you knoow what loan sharks do to people, don't you.

you just ranting.
there no substance in you complains.
is like a girl come up to you and ask you, how come she not have that thing.
how you suppose to answer?

regards

heres a thought about X10

capital risk
1 10
10 100
100 1,000
1000 10,000
10000 100,000
100000 1,000,000
1000000 10,000,000
10000000 100,000,000

this only 10x leverage table.
try 50X
try 500x

How one manage risk when not even know how calculate risk?
this is only exposure risk, what about credit risk, volatility risk,doze off risk.

i said no leverage is best.
if you have to use leverage.
know your exposure.
also know how much pain you can take.
put a stop only makes you sucker. You over exposed and need use stops.

try go to shop buy any thing , ask price .
shop keep says $1
you say no, i want to buy at $1.20 cents.

trust me he will happily sell to you.
or someone will buy from shopkeeper and sell to you.

even if you not use stops, if you over exposed you have a stop order.
is called you margin buyin point. (margin call point)
  • #42,499
  • Edited 12:21am Aug 30, 2013 12:08am | Edited 12:21am
nope, not talking cock. ranting i am not sure. complaints i wouldnt have the audacity.

am really serious about the numbers that i put out.

and i am explaining it to you as i dissect it in my mind, please tell me if i have it wrong.

am trying to get down to the nuts and bolts of it.

after all the MM/MO training, i am trading profitably all thanks to you, and much respect.

current capital is 150k, 1:10, regulated broker in country of domicile, initial scout $1

but i feel that i am over leveraged and intend to push capital to 500k

intend to gradually scale up either by increasing leverage gingerly or by increasing capital.

am careful and approach the markets with respect.

and in applying the AOW, i would like to be in a position in which defeat is impossible (well, almost ...)

no , my dear friend , am not talking cock, just would like your opinion if i have my numbers right.

if i can't or don't know how to calculate risk, please show me how it is done.

yes sir, there are many risks , exposure risk, capital risk , sovereign risk, volitility risk, credit risks ... etc....

as a retail trader, i am unable to identify and manage all the risks, if i can manage my exposure risk well first, i would be most happy.

If you can show me how to calculate and manage my exposure risk , i would be most grateful.

humbly yours.
  • #42,500
  • Edited 12:44am Aug 30, 2013 12:27am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting appleboy
nope, not talking cock. ranting i am not sure. complaints i wouldnt have the audacity. am really serious about the numbers that i put out. and i am explaining it to you as i dissect it in my mind, please tell me if i have it wrong. am trying to get down to the nuts and bolts of it. after all the MM/MO training, i am trading profitably all thanks to you, and much respect. current capital is 150k, 1:10, regulated broker in country of domicile, initial scout $1 but i feel that i am over leveraged and intend to push capital to 500k intend to gradually...
I am trying make you wake up from the propaganda you being fed.
you said
"i am unable to identify and manage all the risks"

you go tell traffic officers i cannot manage risk driving.
see if he will issue you licence to drive.

I will not work out the figs for you.
you have to manage that yourself.
if you really want my opinion, ii think you just greedy and biting off more than you can chew.
please do not deluded think you can drive a porsche because you can ride a bicycle.


regards

you can afford a 1600 sq feet house try buying a 8000 sq feet house.
the sharks will eat you whole, not even spit out bones.
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