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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,461
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:14am Aug 29, 2013 7:14am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok if thats where you want to go. i think most arsenals trades in usd around the world. so you may want consider long hedge in usd. i believe even russian ak47s trades for usd in the underworld. is either that or marlboro. regards but i must warn you. if treasury marshals catch your stack, all your smokes gets confiscated.
AK47/usd ... grenade/usd ... all traded in almighty USD$. obviously, US dominates the world ...
why US just conquer the world? ... maybe unnoticed slavery(modern-day slave system) much more productive than ancient slavery ...
nothing worrying ... my cigarette is negligible ... too slight. anyway, what's the number catch their attention???
and thank for the advice

it's too dangerous to go long on USD position before barrack obama decided on syria strike ...
it's because of yen was the safe-heaven on this tuesday ..
who's consulting him on Syria military action ... ?
  • #42,462
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:18am Aug 29, 2013 7:18am
Quoting fti
{quote} why would i want kick your ass? anything special there? oh only short euro$. if you from europe you hedging your net worth, you probably thinks american are superior. but you from us, so you buying your own currency while borrowing from europe. You either think the euro structure is unsound , or you trying get payment for ww2 services? just guessing. There not much gains in interest defferentials. Likeing go short only euro$ is not such a bad thingy. I not want comment too much about your rigidness. But if you rescuing positions all day...
1.
Yes i'm only taking short position , just because when price is moving up there is deeper retracement than when price is going down , and if you are rescuing a position its more difficult to do it if you are Long , i think due to the nature of the market tere is deeper retracement when price is moving up so it gives you more "opportunities " to be dynamic ..
i mean by dynamic keeping your BE closer ( no more than 20 to 35 pips distance with a total risk % exposure of 30 % to 40 % of my full risk exposure ..... 'm talking RISK % not CAPITAL ....)

2.
yes i'm contrarian not by mentality , but because of the market nature
there is no so called trend
the market is in mode range by default ... the rest is retracement and noise( see the chart below eurusd since 15/08 with 8 pips filter)
i'm contrarian FTI but i try not to be suicidal contrarian ( to open short position i wait to see sign of weakness )

3.
its not that im new to charting
i dont believe chart trendline open close etc ...... in fact im using a graph without time frame to decide to open a position , its the price of EURUSD with a 8 pips filters it draw line of at least 8 pips
ex= the price is moving up 8 pips it draw a new high and to draw a new low the price has to retrace at least 8 pips down to make a new low .. if price is still going up my " toggle is bigger than 8 pips let say 16 pips i still need the price to retrace down 8 pips to draw a new toggle .

4.
the EMA you see on my previous posted chart its just for reference . the price i use on oanda is the min and max bid and ask ( it help me to make sure sure of the 8 pips move needed to create a new toggle .

5.
in fact i have a grid of risk % on excel , if i have a partial SL a 300 pips distance from my first entry and the market goes against me , i will be at full risk % if price goes 300 pips against me without retracement ....( very rare ... it happen i admit ... ) price can go against me no problem .... i just need retracement to be dynamic .... i agree it can be dangerous .. this is why i try to learn how to dance ....

im not sure it will be clear to everybody ... but remember i'm working on risk % basis not position % basis if i increase my position size" i'm not increasing X lot" but i'm increasing a X% of risk ... when i execute TP or partial SL i'm taking out X% of risk .... my risk % is my amunitions

this is the way i'm trading , it may be not making sense to you FTI , but feel free to make comments , i always read very carefully your comments and far from me the idea to pull your legs .. to much respect to play this kind of game , and no time , as you can see im not a great fan of forum either its new to me , even if i'm not new ...... and also an ex really heavy smocker .... (quit almost 3 years ago ... and still fight almost everyday still ....)

regards

ps= this is the chart i use to decide to open ,close,reinforce , or taking TP SL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #42,463
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:44am Aug 29, 2013 7:44am
thanks fti for responding.give me another 3-4 hrs I will give my answer.i have to run to the hospital as my clinic about to be started and I am extremely short of time.by the way I am doing very well,thanks for asking.may god bless u with good health.bye, oh yes ur a gentleman,and much appreciated.thanks
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #42,464
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:45am Aug 29, 2013 7:45am
still no game.
nothing to trade with yet.
the commander is getting trigger happy.
  • #42,465
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:59am Aug 29, 2013 7:59am
Quoting fti
still no game. nothing to trade with yet. the commander is getting trigger happy.
i like to trade cross pairs, more volatility and trending. keeping an eye on GBPNZD. today's candle so far showing 150 pips.
As Above, So Below
  • #42,466
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:07am Aug 29, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Zeigt2013
{quote} AK47/usd ... grenade/usd ... all traded in almighty USD$. obviously, US dominates the world ... why US just conquer the world? ... maybe unnoticed slavery(modern-day slave system) much more productive than ancient slavery ... nothing worrying ... my cigarette is negligible ... too slight. anyway, what's the number catch their attention??? and thank for the advice it's too dangerous to go long on USD position before barrack obama decided on syria strike ... it's because of yen was the safe-heaven on this tuesday...
zeigt all the stuff , they trade in usd , not because of what you thinking. No not dominance.
Mostly is because of the easy convertability of usd around the world.
If you was paid in baht you gonna need find peps who will convert that to what you want.
yes small still can find convert but if becomes large , may be a problem?

Nah, i not think american will accept slavery. They fought a big war get over that. I think every american will remember that for as long as they live.
probably is only want be on top. Be hey, who doesn't.

where you get such ideas from? Why is it dangerous long usd?
and how do you know such things.
Are you sure he going attack Syria. You seem feel that the un security council is asleep.
I don't know la, i not much like to speculate of things that not happen.
not my cup of tea. but thats just me.

regards
  • #42,467
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:14am Aug 29, 2013 8:14am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} 1. Yes i'm only taking short position , just because when price is moving up there is deeper retracement than when price is going down , and if you are rescuing a position its more difficult to do it if you are Long , i think due to the nature of the market tere is deeper retracement when price is moving up so it gives you more "opportunities " to be dynamic .. i mean by dynamic keeping your BE closer ( no more than 20 to 35 pips distance with a total risk % exposure of 30 % to 40 % of my full risk exposure ..... 'm talking RISK % not...
wow, thanks for long reply.
  • #42,468
  • Edited 8:29am Aug 29, 2013 8:18am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} 1. Yes i'm only taking short position , just because when price is moving up there is deeper retracement than when price is going down , and if you are rescuing a position its more difficult to do it if you are Long , i think due to the nature of the market tere is deeper retracement when price is moving up so it gives you more "opportunities " to be dynamic .. i mean by dynamic keeping your BE closer ( no more than 20 to 35 pips distance with a total risk % exposure of 30 % to 40 % of my full risk exposure ..... 'm talking RISK % not...
i get feeling you come from the equities end of trading.
yes in equities drops are more volatile that ups.
That because its a structured borrowers market.

In forex you buying selling currencies in pairs.
So there is no such corelations unless the interest differentials are very large.

About risk odds, you call risk %.
ok lets see if you can see things from a different perspective.

ok see if you can understand this.
risk has no %
is either on or is off.
if you went buy life insurance,
and you told them you like standing at cliff edge in mountains.
you risk on, and will be put on loading.
then they will get data and want to know how often you do that.
from that they will determine how much loading to impose on you.
that figs come back in form of acturials, in % form.
They just trying guess whats the chances you fall off the cliff.

Now the real odds of you fall of the cliff is 50:50.
but the frequency of you doing it , may tip the scales.
but real risk odds is still 50:50. because the "event" are separate events.
so for every event, the risk is stil 50:50.

i hope i am explaining clearly.

regards
  • #42,469
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:33am Aug 29, 2013 8:33am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} 2. yes i'm contrarian not by mentality , but because of the market nature there is no so called trend the market is in mode range by default ... the rest is retracement and noise( see the chart below eurusd since 15/08 with 8 pips filter) i'm contrarian FTI but i try not to be suicidal contrarian ( to open short position i wait to see sign of weakness )
ok on this issue i beg to differ.
This because you said you 1 way trader. short euro$.
but when she's dropping you buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy.
i look at what's on chart, and yes, i get feeling, this chap is sucidal in his trades.

You look at it yourself.
ask anyone.

regards
  • #42,470
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:34am Aug 29, 2013 8:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} i get feeling you come from the equities end of trading. yes in equities drops are more volatile that ups. That because its a structured borrowers market. In forex you buying selling currencies in pairs. So there is no such corelations unless the interest differentials are very large. About risk odds, you call risk %. ok lets see if you can see things from a different perspective. ok see if you can understand this. risk has no % is either on or is off. if you went buy life insurance, and you told them you like standing at cliff edge in mountains....
Based on my observations , i notice that when EURUSD is trending down there is small retracement up during the downtrend ( 26% to 38% per legs when market is moving down ) , but if the trend is up very often during the uptrend there is deeper retracement ( up to 50% 61.8%) this is why i prefer to be short , because even if im short during the uptrend i will have deeper retracement to rescue my position .. it just an observation

waiting to hear from you
  • #42,471
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:36am Aug 29, 2013 8:36am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok on this issue i beg to differ. This because you said you 1 way trader. short euro$. but when she's dropping you buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy. i look at what's on chart, and yes, i get feeling, this chap is sucidal in his trades. You look at it yourself. ask anyone. regards
i understand and i agree .... this is why is so keen to learn how to dance .....
and by the way im not coming from equities but Commodities ....
  • #42,472
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:39am Aug 29, 2013 8:39am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} 5. in fact i have a grid of risk % on excel , if i have a partial SL a 300 pips distance from my first entry and the market goes against me , i will be at full risk % if price goes 300 pips against me without retracement ....( very rare ... it happen i admit ... ) price can go against me no problem .... i just need retracement to be dynamic .... i agree it can be dangerous .. this is why i try to learn how to dance .... im not sure it will be clear to everybody ... but remember i'm working on risk % basis not position % basis if i increase...
ok you robot, thats what i thought.
if i may make suggestion.
you said " i just need retracement to be dynamic"
may i suggest you learn to be dynamic instead.
parameters are just that, algos. and there not enough conditions you can manage with that, because the variations in the dynamics of markets will take you book out 1 day.
I cannot say for sure if it may kill book. but i would chance say the risk of it happening is ON.

If i had to risk invest any moneys with you, knowing what you presented.
the answer is NO.

You playing the chance.
Is similar to a roulette player sitting on a table taking chance that red cannot happen in a 14 consecutive series.(or what ever your tolerance you thinking)
on that probabilities i say it can go even to 50 series. but the odds are slim, only it can happen .

You are betting on mechanical chance probability arrays. And i say you are gambling.

regards
  • #42,473
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:48am Aug 29, 2013 8:48am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok you robot, thats what i thought. if i may make suggestion. you said " i just need retracement to be dynamic" may i suggest you learn to be dynamic instead. parameters are just that, algos. and there not enough conditions you can manage with that, because the variations in the dynamics of markets will take you book out 1 day. I cannot say for sure if it may kill book. but i would chance say the risk of it happening is ON. If i had to risk invest any moneys with you, knowing what you presented. the answer is NO. You playing the chance....
you said " i just need retracement to be dynamic"
may i suggest you learn to be dynamic instead.

whaoouu thats really new ... i see what you mean ..... i just need to conceptualized this ... you talk about it... it ring bells ... but still not clear ....
i like the challenge .... still need to dig .... and reformat my brain ....

cheers
  • #42,474
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:52am Aug 29, 2013 8:52am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok you robot, thats what i thought. if i may make suggestion. you said " i just need retracement to be dynamic" may i suggest you learn to be dynamic instead. parameters are just that, algos. and there not enough conditions you can manage with that, because the variations in the dynamics of markets will take you book out 1 day. I cannot say for sure if it may kill book. but i would chance say the risk of it happening is ON. If i had to risk invest any moneys with you, knowing what you presented. the answer is NO. You playing the chance....
you said =
You playing the chance.
Is similar to a roulette player sitting on a table taking chance that red cannot happen in a 14 consecutive series.(or what ever your tolerance you thinking)
on that probabilities i say it can go even to 50 series. but the odds are slim, only it can happen .

so my question is =
and when you are rescuing a position with 1 1 2 3 5 8 etc ... is it different ?? i'm not pulling your legs .. its a real question .... i find it even more risk involve .. don't beat me on the head .... if i got it wrongly ... lool
  • #42,475
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:52am Aug 29, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} you said " i just need retracement to be dynamic" may i suggest you learn to be dynamic instead. whaoouu thats really new ... i see what you mean ..... i just need to conceptualized this ... you talk about it... it ring bells ... but still not clear .... i like the challenge .... still need to dig .... and reformat my brain .... cheers
yes, think deep my friend , you playing probability risk.
in markets pray you not face a situation where is on extream runs, you will not have enough money sit out the pain.
unless you working with unlimited capital scenario. and thats just theory.

is a dangerous way to operate.
regards

ok just to convince you. test your methodology out on the nikkei225 chart in simex. i not know if the data is available on internet.
it went from 10000 to 5000 and back to 10000 in about 1 hour tenure. Was due to illiquidity and system meltdown. But my point is that in markets it can happen.
  • #42,476
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:56am Aug 29, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} you said = You playing the chance. Is similar to a roulette player sitting on a table taking chance that red cannot happen in a 14 consecutive series.(or what ever your tolerance you thinking) on that probabilities i say it can go even to 50 series. but the odds are slim, only it can happen . so my question is = and when you are rescuing a position with 1 1 2 3 5 8 etc ... is it different ?? i'm not pulling your legs .. its a real question .... i find it even more risk involve .. don't beat me on the head .... if i got it wrongly ... lool...

1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue....got some pips from 2 . removed 2 also was able to rescue first 1 and book some profit...makret moves again against me...i eel the market slows down i send 5 rescue...market shoot against me again... i add 8 times rescue and book some profits ...


or 1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue boom FLIP 5 times .....


V
  • #42,477
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:58am Aug 29, 2013 8:58am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} 1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue....got some pips from 2 . removed 2 also was able to rescue first 1 and book some profit...makret moves again against me...i eel the market slows down i send 5 rescue...market shoot against me again... i add 8 times rescue and book some profits ... or 1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue boom FLIP 5 times ..... V
vic, are you at the derbys?


regards
  • #42,478
  • Aug 29, 2013 8:59am Aug 29, 2013 8:59am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} 1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue....got some pips from 2 . removed 2 also was able to rescue first 1 and book some profit...makret moves again against me...i eel the market slows down i send 5 rescue...market shoot against me again... i add 8 times rescue and book some profits ... or 1 in, 1 for rescue, 2 for rescue boom FLIP 5 times ..... V
Sorry i don't get it ... could you give a bit more details looks interesting ...
  • #42,479
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:01am Aug 29, 2013 9:01am
Quoting fti
{quote} yes, think deep my friend , you playing probability risk. in markets pray you not face a situation where is on extream runs, you will not have enough money sit out the pain. unless you working with unlimited capital scenario. and thats just theory. is a dangerous way to operate. regards ok just to convince you. test your methodology out on the nikkei225 chart in simex. i not know if the data is available on internet. it went from 10000 to 5000 and back to 10000 in about 1 hour tenure. Was due to illiquidity and system meltdown. But my...
i totally agree FTI .... you are right ... it can happen
  • #42,480
  • Edited 9:13am Aug 29, 2013 9:02am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} i totally agree FTI .... you are right ... it can happen
yes or you can test it out on any of these,
pork bellies, coffee, sugar, cotton, lumber, frozen concentrated orange juice. even brent crude.
run it on charts of silver during nelson 'bunker' hunt's period.
yu will be amazed how often it happens.

Trading success depends on ability of trader, not algos and egos.

regards

oh why not try run it on the usd/rupee, is recent event, did you survived?
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