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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,441
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:44am Aug 28, 2013 9:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} what mean good signals. every read has a 50 :50 chance of being wrong. ok some have 60:40. but what that does for you is make you a stone. just put strategic positions for managing, don't sell the house. regards
I got it
thank you chief


regards
Learning is a Journey Not a Destination
  • #42,442
  • Aug 28, 2013 10:06am Aug 28, 2013 10:06am
Quoting FFStudent
{quote} I got it thank you chief regards
please, no go into pattern setups.
they all work 50:50 and some variations of 50:50.
why you think i never talk about patterns.
because that destroys trade mindset , esp nimbleness.
that for lazy people who no have what it takes to dance.

regards
  • #42,443
  • Aug 28, 2013 10:08am Aug 28, 2013 10:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} currency trying to adjust to import over extension. i think. is not a bad thing, now imports will be too expensive. so domestic economy must kick in to develop. Otherwise economy gets caught in a vice grip. Raising interest rates to combat this can be big mistake. Can dry up funds access and cause dessert effects. If rate hikes , must be mild, just for control. must not be strong choke contracted system. I am watching see, how they going handle this. Panda benefited from same. so i watching how this transition. is very interesting. for me...

just a reminder, they already implemented some policy that will help poor gets food for much cheaper but will increase the defect from $4bn to 20Bn and top it off we have election coming in 2014 and i can assure no one party can win the election so the INDECISION will prevail...


V
  • #42,444
  • Edited 10:33am Aug 28, 2013 10:13am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} just a reminder, they already implemented some policy that will help poor gets food for much cheaper but will increase the defect from $4bn to 20Bn and top it off we have election coming in 2014 and i can assure no one party can win the election so the INDECISION will prevail... V
you give fish they live for a day.
you give them fishing hook and line , they live long long time.
this governance policies, distribution of wealth, I have no views on it.
Is that the cause of the sudden weakness of the currency?
shouldn't be.
the think tanks must had worked on the figs already, know what is safe distribute and how to safely impliment.
sensitive issues for 3rd parties comment.

regards

the devaluation has already taken place.
now is to identify cause to remedy situation.
and not having the figs determine the cause can only watch where they identified and what steps taken stop the bleeding.
  • #42,445
  • Aug 28, 2013 11:06am Aug 28, 2013 11:06am
Quoting fti
{quote} please, no go into pattern setups. they all work 50:50 and some variations of 50:50. why you think i never talk about patterns. because that destroys trade mindset , esp nimbleness. that for lazy people who no have what it takes to dance. regards
no longer into patterns setups
am fighting learning the the dance.and am improving so slowly
it was great help of u commenting the chart
you are the savior,i will keep on posting my chart ,
so i can get your valuable comments

Thank you again
Learning is a Journey Not a Destination
  • #42,446
  • Edited 12:58pm Aug 28, 2013 12:25pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nono you don't decide. the chart decides. you only decide how many troops you can dispatch safely, with a backup when necessary. can you please direct me to the post i said that? when did i ever suggest you sell volatility with a constant delta? and how can your delta be constant when your exposure size keeps changing? why you managing delta when your delta is 1 on 1? why you watching price charts while trading volatility? are we on the same page? regards oops , ran away. I not trying belittle you. trying tell you you got it all wrong....
ran away never ... just going for a walk to reset my brain ...
i'm going to read the last few post carefully .... anyway FTI believe me its refreshing to get my brain shake by you ... even if i know you dream to kick my ass ...
thank's a lot ...

ps= i used to trade eurusd only short what i call "the never ending short" no leverage, size of position based % risk , snowballing and rescuing all day long manually , so i can take the heat in the kitchen , and im used to take the punch first .........i just try to learn how to dance no just short ...

thank's
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  • #42,447
  • Aug 28, 2013 12:45pm Aug 28, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hi ResSunfx Here is the link that might help you Link 1 Link 2 Link 3 Link 4 Hope it helps Maybe The words "average price" of your position close to the real market price can help understand What we need to do to flow above the water or...
Michael

Thank's a lot for the link , i'm working on it again , i will not give up ....

Cheers

Redsun
  • #42,448
  • Edited 5:54pm Aug 28, 2013 5:28pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} ran away never ... just going for a walk to reset my brain ... i'm going to read the last few post carefully .... anyway FTI believe me its refreshing to get my brain shake by you ... even if i know you dream to kick my ass ... thank's a lot ... ps= i used to trade eurusd only short what i call "the never ending short" no leverage, size of position based % risk , snowballing and rescuing all day long manually , so i can take the heat in the kitchen , and im used to take the punch first .........i just try to learn how to dance no just...
why would i want kick your ass? anything special there?

oh only short euro$.
if you from europe you hedging your net worth, you probably thinks american are superior.
but you from us, so you buying your own currency while borrowing from europe.
You either think the euro structure is unsound , or you trying get payment for ww2 services? just guessing.
There not much gains in interest defferentials.

Likeing go short only euro$ is not such a bad thingy. I not want comment too much about your rigidness.
But if you rescuing positions all day snowballing your exposure.
If i traded under such pressures, i would probably be dead already. physically.

rescues are for timing deficiency, so should be used when riding trend and adjusting for niche mostly.
is adjusting cost of positions. is bread for dinner, but its the attacks that provides the bacon la.


oh , since you super rigid trader, i should highlight to you.
Dancing doesn't mean you have to be pig buy sell buy sell, that can put you on the platter very quickly hor.
But if you short of love , if you do that your brokers may love you.

regards

I look at your trading on your chart and i get worried big time.
when markets going against you you snowballing. But what the hell you doing when markets going your favour?
You seem have very contrarian trade mindset.
not only rigid also contrarian.
May i ask, is it you enjoy going against the crowd type personality?

oh 1 more thing, your chart is not naked, and i cannot even see the prices.
and how can you analyse anything from line charts?
let me guess, you new to charting?

1 more question.
you said you trade shorts only euro$.
This euro $ chart.
why the jim beans you keep buying when market is dropping?
  • #42,449
  • Aug 28, 2013 5:55pm Aug 28, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i see. so sorry to speculate. can i ask you a question. What is it that you not understand? regards ok since you read whole thread 3 times. tell me, i like know what was Drzakir's difficulty? may solve yours.
kind of interesting to know whats my difficulty? any comments are welcome.let me answer but I like to wait for others to say something before I give my answer.i am very interested in what fti had to say.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #42,450
  • Edited 1:50am Aug 29, 2013 1:17am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} kind of interesting to know whats my difficulty? any comments are welcome.let me answer but I like to wait for others to say something before I give my answer.i am very interested in what fti had to say.
oh i sleep all sleeps?

dr. the reason i asked red that question was because he said he read whole thread 3 times. I checking see if he really read.
because i detected his MO totally washed out, so i try help him see his folly. And trying fig out how i can convince him see what i seeing on his chart if he genuinely in trouble. Otherwise he may be just trying pull my leg.

Since he not answered, seems he may lost interest.
so we come back to you, since you asked.

Well generally was what you told me. 3 things, but i thought some we solved already.
1. was that you emotionally sensitive sometimes. That i gathered from your story about you and your brother.
2. was that you had to get a grip on the time management. That you could not babysit problematic market positions sometimes , because you had to do your medical duties.
3. was overexposure of risk left unmanaged because of issue 2.

I thought you very aware of the issues and had made great pains address them already.

I myself is experiencing issue 2 these days. I switch off to sleep whenever and some times with positions in the markets unmanaged. The bigger problem is that when i awaken , sometimes think i am squared.
To address that i sized down big time so that i not get caught in unmanageable situation.
In fact i stopped for sometime , trying get to grips with my time disorientation and dozzing off problem.

haven't heared from you for sometime.
things are ok i hope.

regards

i had been trying to find Mo for term trading, but still not much headway, because it gets me into predictive analysis of markets. Is not helps the trading.
so, as i promised you, I will post findings on that if i find the way forward.
  • #42,451
  • Edited 4:12am Aug 29, 2013 1:37am | Edited 4:12am
wow, the race to zero continues.
gotta find a chair, before the music stops.

anyone knows what RMB pegged at?
even euro is getting into the race.
lets see who pays bill.
Those sitting near exit is in safest spot.

regards

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  • #42,452
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:29am Aug 29, 2013 4:29am
Nice moves in e/u, u/j + u/c but the g/u is not moving, so pulled some out now watching/waiting for next clues/opportunities to present themselves.

US unemployment claims in 3 hours, something to bear in mind as the market is also concerned with tapering at the moment.

Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #42,453
  • Edited 5:00am Aug 29, 2013 4:42am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting phil13
Nice moves in e/u, u/j + u/c but the g/u is not moving, so pulled some out now watching/waiting for next clues/opportunities to present themselves. US unemployment claims in 3 hours, something to bear in mind as the market is also concerned with tapering at the moment. Regards Phil.
phil
i wouldn't be too worried about the tapering.
they created the mess, now is about time clean up the manipulating.

Is 1 thing expand global economies but expanding it all out of proportion.
The resultant impact should be revaluation and everything should hyper inflate .
But there nothing trader can do because they made this a sudden air pocketing scenario.
This reason why some thinks , don't mess with free markets with heavy medicine.
The free markets are there to show the warning signs. When things are masked.
will be lots earthquakes.
Is like watching roulette ball drop type of event.
nothing can do , but just waiting see how deep the impact.
don't go deep end of the water.

As long as 70% your assets class has capacity to withstand short term shock effects, should be alright over time.
Those holding paper assets, they need scratch head for a while. And sorry for savers, this may whip them clean.
So don't plan retiring. Those retiring, maybe is best just depend on social handouts.
monks had been living like that for eons, so can they

regards
  • #42,454
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:53am Aug 29, 2013 4:53am
Quoting fti
wow, the race to zero continues. gotta find a chair, before the music stops. anyone knows what RMB pegged at? even euro is getting into the race. lets see who pays bill. Those sitting near exit is in safest spot. regards
hi fti

since
From 1985 onwards, Singapore adopted a more market-oriented exchange regime, classified as a Monitoring Band, in which the Singapore dollar is allowed to float (within an undisclosed bandwidth of a central parity) but closely monitored by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) against a concealed basket of currencies of Singapore's major trading partners and competitors.
why not SGD ... ? sound stable ...
  • #42,455
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:06am Aug 29, 2013 5:06am
Quoting Zeigt2013
{quote} hi fti since From 1985 onwards, Singapore adopted a more market-oriented exchange regime, classified as a Monitoring Band, in which the Singapore dollar is allowed to float (within an undisclosed bandwidth of a central parity) but closely monitored by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) against a concealed basket of currencies of Singapore's major trading partners and competitors. why not SGD ... ? sound stable ...
i think most economies are managed same, on a basket(composite) of assets floated across critical components.
Sg $ is stable but sg is not an island economy, although is island state.
There will be impact, maybe milder.
But if every investor flock parking there, will still sink it , like whats happening to nihongo.
Every economy needs balance her needs for funds for growth. But to be parking lot for money is not nice to manage.
Now the #1 economy is going to send out shock waves. So brace for dusty environments.

regards
  • #42,456
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:13am Aug 29, 2013 5:13am
Quoting fti
{quote} phil i wouldn't be too worried about the tapering. they created the mess, now is about time clean up the manipulating. Is 1 thing expand global economies but expanding it all out of proportion. The resultant impact should be revaluation and everything should hyper inflate . But there nothing trader can do because they made this a sudden air pocketing scenario. This reason why some thinks , don't mess with free markets with heavy medicine. The free markets are there to show the warning signs. When things are masked. will...

Hi fti


Thanks for putting me straight me about the tapering, fundamentals are not my strong point.


I am being very cautious at the moment with everything that is going on I am expecting the unexpected (more than usual) and trading accordingly, been watching the kingdoms trying to decide what they want to do very closely , I saw an opportunity arise in the e/u +u/j yesterday so I have been managing/adjusting them in and out since then even managed to gain some from my small over night’s which is nice.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #42,457
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:25am Aug 29, 2013 5:25am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti Thanks for putting me straight me about the tapering, fundamentals are not my strong point. I am being very cautious at the moment with everything that is going on I am expecting the unexpected (more than usual) and trading accordingly, been watching the kingdoms trying to decide what they want to do very closely , I saw an opportunity arise in the e/u +u/j yesterday so I have been managing/adjusting them in and out since then even managed to gain some from my small over night’s which is nice. Regards Phil....


regards
  • #42,458
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:29am Aug 29, 2013 5:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} i think most economies are managed same, on a basket(composite) of assets floated across critical components. Sg $ is stable but sg is not an island economy, although is island state. There will be impact, maybe milder. But if every investor flock parking there, will still sink it , like whats happening to nihongo. Every economy needs balance her needs for funds for growth. But to be parking lot for money is not nice to manage. Now the #1 economy is going to send out shock waves. So brace for dusty environments. regards
fti, thanks
i'm going change my fx acc's base currency ... in case anything happens.
i have a weird thought pop out in my mind ...
why not consider weapons as an investment product ... in turbulent times, of course
  • #42,459
  • Edited 6:03am Aug 29, 2013 5:35am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting Zeigt2013
{quote} fti, thanks i'm going change my fx acc's base currency ... in case anything happens. i have a weird thought pop out in my mind ... why not consider weapons as an investment product ... in turbulent times, of course
ok if thats where you want to go.
i think most arsenals trades in usd around the world.
so you may want consider long hedge in usd.
i believe even russian ak47s trades for usd in the underworld. is either that or marlboro.


regards

but i must warn you.
if treasury marshals catch your stack, all your smokes gets confiscated.
  • #42,460
  • Aug 29, 2013 6:09am Aug 29, 2013 6:09am

i sure hope not start new project over here.
ok now who sent me this?

regards

ok i tired with my dog, nothing happened?
except he tried bite me back.
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