Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 81 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,601
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:07am Aug 29, 2013 3:07am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, I've been trying to learn from your last post regarding H4 moves and accumulation patterns. Can you tell me if I did this correctly? I was going to short this USDJPY on the 1h pullback, but then I switched to H4 and I saw a large candle move, and now an accumulation pattern. Correct? {image} And then I was going to put a buy limit order on top of the H4 demand zone and wait for pullback, but I noticed that the R:R of the candle was not a 2:1 move, so therefore invalid by our rules, correct? If we measure the H4 candle at the demand zone,...
And The trades I don't take, like this, end up being profitable...
  • #1,602
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:14am Aug 29, 2013 3:14am
Quoting Axlz
Another loss again.. Losing for the week. 3 losses 0 wins. And I followed the rules. I don't understand why... {image}
I remember one of your losses, level on top of level...

As far as this one on AUDNZD, take a look at where you were bouncing off, H4 original demand. You tried to sell on H1 when you had price bouncing off original H4 demand. You'd better wait for that demand to be taken out before validating the previous supply. On H1 there was H1 demand as well. That demand will probably be taken out on next pullback, but you don't want to be selling when bouncing off it.

Another thing is that 3 losses is nothing. Remember this is a number's game and you not only have to take into account the SD levels, but also location and where the bigger timeframe SD areas are. In this case, previous original demand was not absorbed. Every loss is a lesson for all of us! But that's what I see on your AUDNZD trade.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,603
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:17am Aug 29, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} And The trades I don't take, like this, end up being profitable...
Remember Murphy also loves trading Trading is a numbers game, it's all about statistics like casinos. If out of 100 trades, you filter out 30 because you "don't like" then you are doomed to fail. If the rules say to buy or sell, do it... Multiple timeframe analysis and previous orginal SD levels being taken out is also key. It's a mixture, but it's a numbers game!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,604
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:19am Aug 29, 2013 3:19am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I remember one of your losses, level on top of level... As far as this one on AUDNZD, take a look at where you were bouncing off, H4 original demand. You tried to sell on H1 when you had price bouncing off original H4 demand. You'd better wait for that demand to be taken out before validating the previous supply. On H1 there was H1 demand as well. That demand will probably be taken out on next pullback, but you don't want to be selling when bouncing off it. Another thing is that 3 losses is nothing. Remember this is a number's game and you...
What about this NZDUSD trade I'm in?

Price didn't take out the H4 supply, but it didn't touch it either.

Price bounced off daily demand and took out 2 demand zones on 1h, so we looking for longs.

1H:

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4H:

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  • #1,605
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:22am Aug 29, 2013 3:22am
Hi everybody,

on USD/CAD, is H1 supply zone which is original and fresh a valid sell setup still?
As i know we can take original and fresh levels (the one that close to extremes of the curve) also even if they are outside of the H1 TL.
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  • #1,606
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:23am Aug 29, 2013 3:23am
Looking to sell EURAUD on H4 speedbump supply.

Price is bouncing off Weekly supply, previous support and last week high (blue beads) taken out.
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,607
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:26am Aug 29, 2013 3:26am
waiting patiently to sell aud cad
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  • #1,608
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:44am Aug 29, 2013 3:44am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to sell EURAUD on H4 speedbump supply. Price is bouncing off Weekly supply, previous support and last week high (blue beads) taken out. Alfonso {image}
On daily its risky Alfonso. Its a kind of congestion here which i marked in blue rectangle. Maybe a d1 level. Do you want to take h4 speedbumb when you have a daily ,,demand''
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  • #1,609
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:49am Aug 29, 2013 3:49am
Valid NZDUSD demand zone on 4h?

TL broken. Bouncing off daily demand.

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  • #1,610
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:53am Aug 29, 2013 3:53am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} On daily its risky Alfonso. Its a kind of congestion here which i marked in blue rectangle. Maybe a d1 level. Do you want to take h4 speedbumb when you have a daily ,,demand'' {image}
I saw that D1 congestion you are mentioned Boby! I don't have it drawn as valid D1 demand on my chart, my D1 demand is lower at 1.4400.
That D1 demand you drew didn't have a strong departure so I didn't draw it on my charts. Price bumped into weekly supply as well.

I just took the H4 supply into account as well as the weekly and monthly supply. H4 removing support areas, ascending trendline broken, previous H4 demand used up. That's all I need to know to take a trade.

Hope that makes sense. Can I lose shorting euraud on that h4 speedbump? Of course I can! But that's trading! Happy to lose

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,611
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:01am Aug 29, 2013 4:01am
Placing sell limit order on EURCAD 4H supply.

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  • #1,612
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:03am Aug 29, 2013 4:03am
My AUDCAD is missing by 2 pips.
  • #1,613
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:20am Aug 29, 2013 4:20am
Sell limit placed AUDNZD 4H supply.

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  • #1,614
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:32am Aug 29, 2013 4:32am
Quoting Axlz
Sell limit placed AUDNZD 4H supply. {image}

The level what you marked has been tested.
  • #1,615
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:34am Aug 29, 2013 4:34am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} The level what you marked has been tested.
You're right. I didn't see that.

Thanks Boby.
  • #1,616
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:36am Aug 29, 2013 4:36am
Alfonso, I have a question, EURUSD H4 speedbump its still valid? I ask you because price touched D1 demand. But D1 demand is touched multiple times. so, what we should do? Thank you.
  • #1,617
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:48am Aug 29, 2013 4:48am
Quoting bobyv87
Alfonso, I have a question, EURUSD H4 speedbump its still valid? I ask you because price touched D1 demand. But D1 demand is touched multiple times. so, what we should do? Thank you.
Hi

price did not touch daily demand level yet, so i think, that this h4 speedbump is still valid.
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  • #1,618
  • Aug 29, 2013 4:52am Aug 29, 2013 4:52am
Is this 4H speedbump valid on Dax30 4H?

4H:

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Daily:

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  • #1,619
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:22am Aug 29, 2013 5:22am
Quoting Axlz
Is this 4H speedbump valid on Dax30 4H? 4H: {image} Daily: {image}
Alfonso said in some videos that a speedbump have to contain at least a candle with opposite color, so that speed bump doesnt look good. Also Sam Seiden use professional gaps in he's trading. You have a rejection from a d1 gap, so probably you are low in the curve, because there may be a d1 demand. Maybe on h1 you have some levels inside h4 zone.
  • #1,620
  • Aug 29, 2013 5:23am Aug 29, 2013 5:23am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Alfonso said in some videos that a speedbump have to contain at least a candle with opposite color, so that speed bump doesnt look good. Also Sam Seiden use gaps in he's trading. You have a rejection from a d1 gap, so probably you are low in the curve.
Ahh I see. Thanks.
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