Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 80 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,581
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:06am Aug 28, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Axlz
Limit order placed on AUDCAD 1H supply. {image}
Stopped out again.
  • #1,582
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:07am Aug 28, 2013 8:07am
What do you say about this? Daily- non-fresh area but h1 looks like a confirmation.
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  • #1,583
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:28am Aug 28, 2013 8:28am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Stopped out again.
One thing Axlz! Level on top of level on H1. If you took the lower one you should still be in because the lower level was only pierced by 2 pips. Normally on H1 you should AT LEAST add 5 pips wiggle room + spread when selling, so you should still be in. I want to record a video on the entries soon, it will cover all this.

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Also, after such a big drop and having an accummulation pattern on H4, 4 or more candles, I always wait for a bigger pullback. I am waiting for a short on AUDCAD at the H4 supply area you can see on my H4 chart.
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Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,584
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:28am Aug 28, 2013 8:28am
Quoting bobyv87
What do you say about this? Daily- non-fresh area but h1 looks like a confirmation. {image} {image}

nzd/usd daily look ok to me but my view is i will wait for daily to close buy retest or high above reversal bar and sl below the demand line 0.7680..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,585
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:37am Aug 28, 2013 8:37am
Buy limit orders on CADJPY and USDJPY 1H.

Price bounced off daily demand.

CADJPY 1h:

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USDJPY 1h:

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  • #1,586
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:57am Aug 28, 2013 8:57am
Hi guys and Alfonso,

i have a sell limit order on UKOIL...

we are at Daily and weekly fresh supply area,
and there is a H1 supply confirmation level for sell setup.
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  • #1,587
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:03am Aug 28, 2013 9:03am
and one more thing,
referring to alfonso's post Post# 1,583, should this basing at circled area on H4 chart make us concerned about the sell setup.
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  • #1,588
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:22am Aug 28, 2013 9:22am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} One thing Axlz! Level on top of level on H1. If you took the lower one you should still be in because the lower level was only pierced by 2 pips. Normally on H1 you should AT LEAST add 5 pips wiggle room + spread when selling, so you should still be in. I want to record a video on the entries soon, it will cover all this. {image} Also, after such a big drop and having an accummulation pattern on H4, 4 or more candles, I always wait for a bigger pullback. I am waiting for a short on AUDCAD at the H4 supply area you can see on my H4 chart....

Hi Alfonso.

im watching that trade to but we are in the middle of daily curve, but H4 is making lower and i see a lot of trading in that area

Roberto
passion and discipline
  • #1,589
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:01pm Aug 28, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting caparzo
Hi guys and Alfonso, i have a sell limit order on UKOIL... we are at Daily and weekly fresh supply area, and there is a H1 supply confirmation level for sell setup. {image} {image}
Nice analysis.

I have similar situation on light sweet crude oil.
Price bounced from weekly fresh, but not original supply.
Think that the direction is well known and we can try to sell on fresh, original h1 or h4 supply areas.
Maybe UKOIL is highly corelated witch crude oil
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  • #1,590
  • Aug 28, 2013 2:28pm Aug 28, 2013 2:28pm
Hi Panoramia,

I'm at the very beginning of your thread and reading what you've written and watching your videos. I still have some problem to locate rally-base-rally and drop-base-drop zones. I understand that there must be a candle of the opposite color in the base, and they should not be doji. But sometimes in your videos, there are candles with opposite color, but anyway you discard that level. Should the body of the candle be bigger than the wicks? In your second video, there is some kind of rally-base-rally, but you discard that level because there are two red candles with the body of the second one below the first one. Could you please explain why this is not a valid level?
  • #1,591
  • Aug 28, 2013 4:27pm Aug 28, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Panoramia, I'm at the very beginning of your thread and reading what you've written and watching your videos. I still have some problem to locate rally-base-rally and drop-base-drop zones. I understand that there must be a candle of the opposite color in the base, and they should not be doji. But sometimes in your videos, there are candles with opposite color, but anyway you discard that level. Should the body of the candle be bigger than the wicks? In your second video, there is some kind of rally-base-rally, but you discard that level because...
Hi dvarrin,

Welcome to the thread. There is so much contained in each video it is almost impossible to know which candles you are referring to.
Please provide an annotated chart so that we can better understand where your difficulty is and that will allow us to provide you with a better answer. Sometimes words are difficult to follow whereas a picture with lines arrows and text on it will show things much more clearly.

Peter
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #1,592
  • Aug 28, 2013 4:59pm Aug 28, 2013 4:59pm
Got in this last night for 20 cars. I peeled off 5 already for a gain of 10,400
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Trade smart. OR JUST DON'T TRADE!!!
  • #1,593
  • Aug 28, 2013 5:18pm Aug 28, 2013 5:18pm
Decided to keep my money in my account. Now just managing 1 runner on the 60 minute chart. So from last night I made 42060 till just now and still have a runner.
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Trade smart. OR JUST DON'T TRADE!!!
  • #1,594
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:24pm Aug 28, 2013 8:24pm
Alfonso,

I've been trying to learn from your last post regarding H4 moves and accumulation patterns. Can you tell me if I did this correctly?

I was going to short this USDJPY on the 1h pullback, but then I switched to H4 and I saw a large candle move, and now an accumulation pattern.

Correct?

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And then I was going to put a buy limit order on top of the H4 demand zone and wait for pullback, but I noticed that the R:R of the candle was not a 2:1 move, so therefore invalid by our rules, correct?

If we measure the H4 candle at the demand zone, it is a 44 pip zone.

But the movement it caused was only 65 pips, which is not 2:1.

This makes it an invalid demand zone by our rules, correct?
  • #1,595
  • Aug 28, 2013 10:53pm Aug 28, 2013 10:53pm
I think that our expectations about silver and gold were to early.
We should always wait for price to close at least on daily chart, above valid supply. In this case (look at daily chart), we see only spike. Price closed inside supply areas, wasnt able to close above them. So IMHO, weekly and daily supply levels are still valid, and dynamics of the market has changed. Look at the h1 chart. Think that we can look for sell.

What do you think?
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  • #1,596
  • Aug 28, 2013 11:52pm Aug 28, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting caparzo
and one more thing, referring to alfonso's post Post# 1,583, should this basing at circled area on H4 chart make us concerned about the sell setup. {image}
That kind of basing shouldn't concern you, it was produce after a great arrival into the level, which is what we want!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,597
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:05am Aug 29, 2013 12:05am
LOVING EU SO FAR
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,598
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:35am Aug 29, 2013 12:35am
GBPUSD made a confirmation now! Is there a valid confirmation to go long? Daily demand but price come from weekly supply. H1 made a fresh level.
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  • #1,599
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:38am Aug 29, 2013 12:38am
Looking to sell EURNZD on last H4 speedbump supply at 1.7094

  1. Weekly supply has been hit, price bouncing off it
  2. Ascending H4 trendline solidly broken as well as previous demand
  3. There was no pullback to the top supply area for a confirmation type of trade, so now waiting for the lower speedbump H4 supply

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,600
  • Aug 29, 2013 1:04am Aug 29, 2013 1:04am
Another loss again..

Losing for the week. 3 losses 0 wins.


And I followed the rules. I don't understand why...

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