Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 79 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,561
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:28am Aug 28, 2013 7:28am
Quoting donfriday
here is my reading on daily euro, price was rejected from the zone of supply {image}
I agree with you... Let's see what happens. I am planning to short at the first fresh level of supply on the euro. Price hit the D1 supply and created a brand new H4 supply area which is untested. Let's see what it happens! If it keeps on dropping then I will look for lower entries.

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EURUSD is holding last month high at 1.3345. If if breaks it solidly we could have good shorts!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,562
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:37am Aug 28, 2013 7:37am
Watching EU and GU closely as we see both coming into 4hr demand as USD Index is hitting 4hr supply...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,563
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:43am Aug 28, 2013 7:43am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I agree with you... Let's see what happens. I am planning to short at the first fresh level of supply on the euro. Price hit the D1 supply and created a brand new H4 supply area which is untested. Let's see what it happens! If it keeps on dropping then I will look for lower entries. {image} EURUSD is holding last month high at 1.3345. If if breaks it solidly we could have good shorts! Alfonso

OUR DAILY LOOK SET FOR FOR FIRST ZONE 1.32xx BUT ON 4HRS WE ARE CURRENTLY STUCK IN TIGHT RANGE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONE...WATCHING 4HRS PRICE ACTION FOR ANY DEMAND BAR..STILL HOLDING MY SHORT THOU...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,564
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:51am Aug 28, 2013 7:51am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} OUR DAILY LOOK SET FOR FOR FIRST ZONE 1.32xx BUT ON 4HRS WE ARE CURRENTLY STUCK IN TIGHT RANGE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONE...WATCHING 4HRS PRICE ACTION FOR ANY DEMAND BAR..STILL HOLDING MY SHORT THOU...
Both EURUSD and the $index are ranging on H4, not the best look in my opinion. I am still holding my limit sell on eurusd. $index holding and respecting a WK demand area, consolidating for a month now there, but holding it. If the area holds, shorts on eurusd won't probably work. But if the level is penetrated further and broken we might see some nice price action on the majors, but right now is like holdiing there and doing nothing.

$Index weekly chart its been consolidating for the whole month of August
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$Index H4 chart
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On the H4 chart it looks like a consolidation as well.
There is not a clear trend with levels being used-up. I guess we need some action in September
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,565
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:06am Aug 28, 2013 8:06am
Quoting mfinab
{quote} Thank you Alfonso, very kind of you! I'm currently watching GU to get out of my trade soon, +225 current. I'm in this trade since 7 days. {image} {image} {image}
Hi,

Just want to let you know that I have closed GU at 1.5459 just before GBP news. Risk 1 : 9:31 Ratio on Equity
Chart will come during the day.

Have a nice day to all,
Mfinab
  • #1,566
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:08am Aug 28, 2013 8:08am
Quoting mfinab
{quote} Hi, Just want to let you know that I have closed GU at 1.5459 just before GBP news. Risk 1 : 9:31 Ratio on Equity Chart will come during the day. Have a nice day to all, Mfinab
Lucky considering the news that came out positive for GBP.
  • #1,567
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:37am Aug 28, 2013 8:37am
hi folks and Alfonso,

Is this a good entry on gpb? (long) the D1 makes a new demand zone and i find a entry on h4, but i dont know if im to high in the curve
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passion and discipline
  • #1,568
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:39am Aug 28, 2013 8:39am
Quoting rohule
hi folks and Alfonso, Is this a good entry on gpb? (long) {image}
Daily demand level is original and fresh.

Seems like a valid trade to me.
  • #1,569
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:51am Aug 28, 2013 8:51am
Valid short on SP500?

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Hold on, would this count as a demand zone that price has hit on the daily ?


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  • #1,570
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:06am Aug 28, 2013 9:06am
Quoting Axlz
Valid short on SP500? {image} {image} Hold on, would this count as a demand zone that price has hit on the daily ? {image}
Hi Axlz, shouldn't we take into account that we are currently on top of the Daily TL and bouncing from there?
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  • #1,571
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:08am Aug 28, 2013 9:08am
mostly trade on daily but sometime 4hrs depend on timing and risk..i love this setup ...
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,572
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:09am Aug 28, 2013 9:09am
Quoting caparzo
{quote} Hi Axlz, shouldn't we take into account that we are currently on top of the Daily TL and bouncing from there? {image}
I'm not fully sure to be honest.

I think this would matter more for those who use the daily as their lower TF and the weekly as their higher TF.

I'm assuming that for us, the trendline that matters is only the 1h/4h, if using the daily as the higher TF.

Nonetheless, I'm quite sure we've hit a valid demand area on the daily, so shorts would be out of the question for now.
  • #1,573
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:09am Aug 28, 2013 9:09am
Hi guys, my first post here. Been reading and learning from this tread. What do you guys think about this EUR/GBP H4 Demand level?
I don't see any supply level above until 0.8732 which is pretty far from this demand level.
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  • #1,574
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:23am Aug 28, 2013 9:23am
Limit order placed on AUDCAD 1H supply.

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  • #1,575
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:33am Aug 28, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Axlz
Valid short on SP500? {image} {image} Hold on, would this count as a demand zone that price has hit on the daily ? {image}
It's going to be VERY difficult for you to decide which D1 level to take if you have all those demand levels. If I saw that on my charts, I would have to reset my brain twice Some D1 demand levels you painted are not valid. I don't know the rationale behind them, but they are neither speedbumps nor valid valleys.
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Take a look at my D1 chart on S&P emini, I just have the levels that are the origin of the moves, nothing else. By looking at your D1 chart, I can see 4 overlapped colored areas of demand. I guess you will know why you have painted those, but it's not clear at all to me.

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After such a big drop and the accummulation pattern on H4, I prefer to wait for a bigger pullback to short the S&P. My shorts are higher.

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Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,576
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:34am Aug 28, 2013 9:34am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's going to be VERY difficult for you to decide which D1 level to take if you have all those demand levels. If I saw that on my charts, I would have to reset my brain twice Some D1 demand levels you painted are not valid. I don't know the rationale behind them, but they are neither speedbumps nor valid valleys. {image} Take a look at my D1 chart on S&P emini, I just have the levels that are the origin of the moves, nothing else. By looking at your D1 chart, I can see 4 overlapped colored areas of demand. I guess you will know why you...
Yes you are right. I went crazy and confused myself on that chart of SP500.

Thanks again Alfonso!
  • #1,577
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:36am Aug 28, 2013 9:36am
EURNZD commencing it's bearish movement. Bouncing off Daily supply.

Daily:

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1H:

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  • #1,578
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:52am Aug 28, 2013 9:52am
Quoting Axlz
EURNZD commencing it's bearish movement. Bouncing off Daily supply. Daily: {image} 1H: {image}

thanks for that eurnzd chart..that will be my watch out for tonight i need the close of that candle..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,579
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:55am Aug 28, 2013 9:55am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} thanks for that eurnzd chart..that will be my watch out for tonight i need the close of that candle..
My pleasure.

Keep an eye out on USDJPY and CADJPY as well gentleman.

It has bounced off of daily demand and is heading back up to daily supply.

Opportunities for longs.
  • #1,580
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:56am Aug 28, 2013 9:56am
Hi, what do you guys think about this H4 USD/JPY supply level pointed by the arrow? It's near to the daily supply.
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