Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 75 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,481
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:04am Aug 27, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I don't use the trend lines. Instead, I follow a rule I remember ALfonso saying in the beginning of this thread. He said for confirmation, he wants for price to take out two demand/supply zones. That signals a change in the trend has occurred. I follow this rule.
Hi Axlz,

Assuming you are looking at the daily for trend and 4hour for levels, if you wait for 2 demand levels to be taken out, the probability is you have probably done a lower low, after these 2 demand levels are taken out, do you put you order in the pullback of the next NEW supply level created during this fall in prices

thanks
Ashtrader
  • #1,482
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:07am Aug 27, 2013 9:07am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Elliot! The thinking process and logic is always the same. Ascending D1 trendline was solidly broken, last week all time highs solidly taken out (blue beads), pullback into the brand new D1 supply area, D1 supply drilled to H4 and short! Pity my EA didn't trigger that trade, looking into it! But well, that's part of trading as well! At least Sebastian took it On to next one! Off for some climbing now! Will reply to the rest of messages later on! Have a great morning! Alfonso {image}

Hi Alfonso,

IS THIS YOUR CONFIRMATION ENTRY , order style

Thanks Again
  • #1,483
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:42am Aug 27, 2013 9:42am
Quoting ashtrader
{quote} Hi Axlz, Assuming you are looking at the daily for trend and 4hour for levels, if you wait for 2 demand levels to be taken out, the probability is you have probably done a lower low, after these 2 demand levels are taken out, do you put you order in the pullback of the next NEW supply level created during this fall in prices thanks Ashtrader
The break of 2 demand zones confirms the change of a trend, that's what I do yes. But I just need the break of one demand area and a trendline in order to give me permission to short.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,484
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:46am Aug 27, 2013 9:46am
Both my USDJPY short and EURJPY short reached their targets, I didn't want to be greedy on targets... they are still running, but happy with results.

10:1 on usdjy and 11:1 on eurjpy! Entries were on H1 areas. Attached the usdjy entry. I had a small loss on USDJPY trying to catch the drop as you can see. I did have another small loss on GBPJPY trying to catch the drop and it never made it back another entry level. So 2 losses but 2 winners. Winners 10:1 average, and 2 x 1:1 losses.

On to the next ones! The yen pairs have dropped significantly now!
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 129 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,485
  • Aug 27, 2013 9:57am Aug 27, 2013 9:57am
Quoting elliotrader
alfonso thank you very much for ur reply! enjoy climbing and have a great day!
I hope my snapshot with the D1 trendline being solidly broken as well as previous weekly highs are clear on nasdaq e-mini. I always use the same ideas and methodology. I believe Sebastian did the same thing in order to decide the short from that level. He was lucky to be triggered, I was not, but there are many many opportunities out there always! We just have to be patient enough!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,486
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:04am Aug 27, 2013 10:04am
Quoting panoramia
Both my USDJPY short and EURJPY short reached their targets, I didn't want to be greedy on targets... they are still running, but happy with results. 10:1 on usdjy and 11:1 on eurjpy! Entries were on H1 areas. Attached the usdjy entry. I had a small loss on USDJPY trying to catch the drop as you can see. I did have another small loss on GBPJPY trying to catch the drop and it never made it back another entry level. So 2 losses but 2 winners. Winners 10:1 average, and 2 x 1:1 losses. On to the next ones! The yen pairs have dropped significantly now!...

WOW !!!
Congrat's. Great trades. 10:1. When you have two winners like that, you don't even notice small loses.
That gives me more power to work and study even harder.
  • #1,487
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:04am Aug 27, 2013 10:04am
Quoting pres78
Keeping a close eye on that fresh EU 4hr overhead supply zone as it appears the timing could play out that EU could hit that supply zone (stacked within daily supply, not fresh but also not engulfed) just about the time that the USD index hits fresh 4 hr demand zone (upper blue) that is stacked on fresh Daily demand zone (lower blue). {image} {image}
Hi Pres78!
nice to see you here, are you combining supply/demand and VSA to better R:R?
  • #1,488
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:05am Aug 27, 2013 10:05am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} WOW !!! Congrat's. Great trades. 10:1. When you have two winners like that, you don't even notice small loses. That gives me more power to work and study even harder.
That's the power of suply and demand mixed with patience! Small losses are just part of the game. We shouldn't care about them... They are like buying new stock for a hardware store. If you don't buy new stock, how are you supposed to sell products in your store?

The key thing here is being able to wait for the right setup and circumstances and hold the trade for at least 3:1. You are doing a great job Sebastian. You are riding and taming the SD beast!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,489
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:13am Aug 27, 2013 10:13am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That's the power of suply and demand mixed with patience! You are doing a great job Sebastian. You are riding and taming the SD beast! Alfonso
Thank's but my biggest probelm is, when i see perfect setup, sometimes i don't enter the trade .
It sounds really dumb, but that's what it is with me.
I think that what we need, is to believe in our skills.
  • #1,490
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:23am Aug 27, 2013 10:23am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Thank's but my biggest probelm is, when i see perfect setup, sometimes i don't enter the trade . It sounds really dumb, but that's what it is with me. I think that what we need, is to believe in our skills.
I have been there and I still am there fighting with those fears... My recommendation is: trade all setups that you see, no matter what they look like, this is why I am not being too active lately, since I am building something that will do 90% of the work for me and remove emotions from the equations. If the setups you see follow the rules, take them... It's all a numbers game... if out of 100 valid opportunities your mind and fear to lose decide to filter out 30 trades, then the probabilities of being profitable will go down proportionally. Just take all valid levels, and many times you will have 5:1 runners, +10:1 runners that will cover all small 1:1 losses that you had.

All of my trades risk 1% of my account, never above 1%. If I lose 3 or 4 in a row, which is normal if I trade correlated pairs, only one 5:1 trade will cover all losses. A 10:1 trade will put me 5% up, and if I have 2-3 good trades in a row... you know what I mean.. it's all about probabilties and not being scared of the next setup, since each setup is completely independent and different from the previous one, even if it's on the same pair.

3:1 with a 40% success ratio will put you on the money. The better you get at your exits (since entries are not the problem, but exits), the better your account.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,491
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:37am Aug 27, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Gxp1
{quote} Hi Pres78! nice to see you here, are you combining supply/demand and VSA to better R:R?
To be honest I am not 100% sure what the outcome of this portion of my trading studies will me to but I know this seems like a very logical next step and at least a perfect extention to what I was already doing. Will this become a way to tweak entries and better trail them for max profits or will this become the way I trade with no further consideration to volume or VSA...

We will see I guess.

How are things going with you?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,492
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:45am Aug 27, 2013 10:45am
Alfonso ignoring the big picture for a moment what does this pattern usually tell you?

Long sideways PA but then a fresh supply shows up. Ignoring the overall analysis would you take this kind of level, in this GU example short?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 102 KB
  • #1,493
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:52am Aug 27, 2013 10:52am
Quoting Vitez
Alfonso ignoring the big picture for a moment what does this pattern usually tell you? Long sideways PA but then a fresh supply shows up. Ignoring the overall analysis would you take this kind of level, in this GU example short? {image}
That's too much trading in the zone Vitez! That's one of the odds enhancers... the longer price stays on a level consolidating, the worst! If there was a big imbalance in the area, price would have dropped like a rock very quickly... That's key! Can it work? Of course it can, but time at level is important. More than 5-6 candles is too much!

Hope that helps!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,494
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:53am Aug 27, 2013 10:53am
Hi there,

I have a doubt about eur usd.
Price bounced from daily supply level and created h4 confirmation supply, which we could enter short position, but...
price didn't break trend line. Is this setup still valid? I think it is not.
What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd h4.PNG Size: 104 KB
  • #1,495
  • Aug 27, 2013 11:02am Aug 27, 2013 11:02am
Quoting mfinab
{quote} Hi Alfonso, can you please share to me your last Supply and Demand Curve spreadsheet? I saw that you have a nice bunch of commodities that I dont have on mine. I'd like to have them please. Thanks
Hi Mfinab!
Find attached my D1/W1/MN supply and demand Open Office Calc spreadsheet. I've not had time to check if all of them are ok or not. I didn't update it since yesterday, but they should be the same.

Off to some lunch and rest! Let's see what the market brings tomorrow, will take a look at the charts tonight for 1 hour and see.

Alfonso
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SD_curve_monthly.zip   44 KB | 1,536 downloads
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,496
  • Aug 27, 2013 11:33am Aug 27, 2013 11:33am
Hi Alfonso!

Great thread you've got going on here, very active! I recently stumbled upon it after watching Sam Seiden's webinars on fxstreet and did a search on S&D trading. I guess I'll start with a question right away:

As per your rules is this level on GBPUSD a good level to set & forget?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 70 KB


It's the next D1 demand below with trendline and last week's high as support which I drilled down to 30 pips on H1. Should we consider the W1 supply above still in command and only trade with confirmation or is it a good s&f setup?

I think you've said that to trade a H4 level we should trade the H4 level and not the H1 level within...is the same concept true for D1 levels and the H4/H1 levels within? So is it okay for me to drill the D1 level down to the H1 level (for s&f)?

If this is indeed a good setup, where is the best place to put TP at? Below W1 supply proximal or that speedbump in the middle of the D1 curve?

Thank you for your help in advance!
Ranagol
  • #1,497
  • Aug 27, 2013 11:51am Aug 27, 2013 11:51am
Hi Alfonso.

I am new to your thread, just found it one week ago.

You have done incredible job. I'll won't take a lot of you time.

For newbie it's easy identify levels in a past, but in real time is hard.

Maybe you will post your spreadsheet when you updated it and this way we can compare

our job with yours. This way you don't have to answer to every one every day.

And one more question. Is any idea how to find an entry level on a heavy trending market.

Thank you very much.

Sergei
  • #1,498
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:17pm Aug 27, 2013 12:17pm
Quoting Ranagol
Hi Alfonso! Great thread you've got going on here, very active! I recently stumbled upon it after watching Sam Seiden's webinars on fxstreet and did a search on S&D trading. I guess I'll start with a question right away: As per your rules is this level on GBPUSD a good level to set & forget? {image} It's the next D1 demand below with trendline and last week's high as support which I drilled down to 30 pips on H1. Should we consider the W1 supply above still in command and only trade with confirmation or is it a good s&f setup? I think you've said...
Hi Ranagol, besides your analysis, for set and forget trades, the H1 zone that you mention must be original and fresh at the same time,
Can u please post the H1 pic that u wanna take the trade so we can learn things easily.
thanks.
  • #1,499
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:41pm Aug 27, 2013 12:41pm
Forgive me for not posting a chart. Having some tech issues. I will post as soon as I can.

i am looking to buy every 1 hr speed bump on gold. My SD zones on the daily are much higher than Alphonso's sheet. With a high geopolitical risk, I am looking for a big run this week in Gold. I will post a chart as soon as I figure out what the problem is.

i am using wider stops below the support zones due to expected higher volatility.
  • #1,500
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:47pm Aug 27, 2013 12:47pm
The top of the first speed bump I am looking at is 1412.76, bottom is 1410.258.
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