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Market is ever changing?

  • #21
  • Aug 24, 2013 3:43pm Aug 24, 2013 3:43pm
Market is ever changing,drawdown is ever changing,profit and loss is ever changing.If you can survive the mental torture of years of trading the markets,then change becomes part of the game.
  • #22
  • Aug 24, 2013 5:31pm Aug 24, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Morality? You wanna bring morality to trading? Dude, your very existence in this forum speaks volume about juxtaposing the statement you just made. If I managed to turn my system into an EA, how's that me pushing someone else into misery? What? Did I put a gun on your head to trade? Am I supposed to be responsible behind the decision made by all participants in this 4 trillion industry? If I win money, who gives a sh*t about my winnings? If I lose money, who gives a sh*t about my misery? Average Joe, whom I have no idea at all about, decided...
hum, unlike you, I do not pretend to try and make world better, give love, to poor etc. I just take for my own benefit. Truth is there is too many people in this world thanks to economic policies, and words like sympathy, love compassion lost the shine.
  • #23
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:56pm Aug 25, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} True that. Yeah, I still don't know which exact event moves what and how.
You can see the major events in red on the FF Calendar. Not all bad news is bearish though, same for bullish news. We're all competing against other traders so it's their positioning that you play against. You can get to know what traders are expecting by watching CNBC or global financial news. For example; Aug 6th the RBA (Australia) announced a 25bps rate cut. Very bearish for a currency, but it went up because traders had actually priced in a 50bps cut, their exiting of positions threw the market up and the uninformed trader's that shorted the announcement had their buy stops ran to hell.

Quoting Ishtana
{quote} I don't know how to catch up with all the news, politics, and economy. Worse, I still don't know what warrants a continuation of a move. All my trades are done at the swing peak, as I only trade reversals, but I just don't know whether the move will continue or not.
Catching up is made easy by PipDiddy. Just read the last post of each thread once a day http://forums.babypips.com/daily-for...ic-commentary/ Then you'll be able to more accurately know if a trade is in a retracement or a continuation. http://www.orderflowtrading.com/News.aspx is the best as its market fundamentals, global flows, large trader's orders & positioning.. but it may be a bit advanced.
Try not to use automatic trading EAs. They put the retail trader at a serious disadvantage, IMO. Keep up the learning about the forex market! It is very complex and correlates with so many global markets!
  • #24
  • Edited 3:17am Aug 26, 2013 3:01am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} hum, unlike you, I do not pretend to try and make world better, give love, to poor etc. I just take for my own benefit. Truth is there is too many people in this world thanks to economic policies, and words like sympathy, love compassion lost the shine.
Just like you, I don't pretend to try and make world better, give love, to poor etc. I just do it.

People envy successful traders and they love to hate them. They are evil people who exploit others' miseries. Like I said, I'm a follower, not a cause. I'm unable to cause anything at all in the market. My 0.1 lot trade is a tiny drop of water in the sea. If greedy people think they can make easy money in the market, then the onus is on them. Stop thinking successful private traders are evil people. There is no morality. You hate the game? You hate the players? Then you shouldn't be in the game.


Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You can see the major events in red on the FF Calendar. Not all bad news is bearish though, same for bullish news. We're all competing against other traders so it's their positioning that you play against. You can get to know what traders are expecting by watching CNBC or global financial news. For example; Aug 6th the RBA (Australia) announced a 25bps rate cut. Very bearish for a currency, but it went up because traders had actually priced in a 50bps cut, their exiting of positions threw the market up and the uninformed trader's that shorted...

Thank you kindly for the heads up. Yup I need a lot of catching up to do.
  • #25
  • Aug 26, 2013 12:33pm Aug 26, 2013 12:33pm
I think finally there is something about forex market that is 100% guaranteed, and that is: market doesn't change.

Anyhow, I don't want to open a new thread on this, but I'm curious as to why majority of traders are still losing when common and free, but factual resources are plenty in this forum.

I've just had a brush look at the Trading System section. I never really pay attention to it. I was to busy perfecting my craft.

But to tell you the truth, some of these guys know what their talking about.

Why not all of you spend some time on the Trading Strategy section, try some of them, combine them, make it yours, and I'm pretty sure you'll be a pretty darn good trader.

Or maybe the reason why people keep losing is because they are just simply lazy to learn about the market. They just want buy and sell indicators.

I've had several PMs and emails from people almost begging me to share my method, and I'm sure I'm not the only one they've asked to. And I guess they are barking at the wrong tree. Well not necessarily wrong, but let's say a young tree =)

They said they've tried hundreds, thousands, millions, billions of strategy and they keep losing money.

Looking at the quality of some of the systems, I doubt they've done the real search.

Honestly, if I'm a complete newbie, I would be content with what's on that part of the forum. Especially while it costs you nothing.

Seriously guys, read the Trading System section, it's not like you're trying to find a needle on a haystack.
  • #26
  • Aug 26, 2013 1:31pm Aug 26, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting Ishtana
They said they've tried hundreds, thousands, millions, billions of strategy and they keep losing money. Looking at the quality of some of the systems, I doubt they've done the real search.
oh no no no. they are completly right . all trading systems in the trading systems forum do not work. there may be 4-5 ideas that provide the entry well but even that is well hidden amongst 1000 trading ideas that don't. if someone says that they traded this or that system and they are profitable ask them how you filter the bad trades that the system gives because the system does not work. they will say they use discretion and that is not a working system.
  • #27
  • Aug 26, 2013 3:57pm Aug 26, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting Ishtana
I think finally there is something about forex market that is 100% guaranteed, and that is: market doesn't change.
Markets do change. It really depends on what aspect you're talking about. Some things change, others are constant.
  • #28
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:31pm Aug 26, 2013 5:31pm
The secrets to success in the markets have been echoed by many successful traders of our time. These are timeless principles that have worked before and will continue working as long as there's a market. Why does everyone find it so hard to decipher this and use it to their advantage? Most people spend too much time trying to reinvent the wheel.
  • #29
  • Edited 7:06pm Aug 26, 2013 5:42pm | Edited 7:06pm
Markets are never completely identical. At least not within our lifetimes (if ever). This is due to the seemingly infinite amount of combinations of contributing factors that make up the market.

With that said, there are many similarities of conditions to conditions of the past (on a macro scale). Understanding these conditions and their underlying forces could provide you with an edge. Obviously there is no guarantee that any single perceived edge will in fact be an edge or remain an edge. All you can do to give yourself the best chance of long term success is play the probabilities that seem like the best probabilities over and over again. It doesn't mean you will come out ahead. It just means that you're more likely to come out ahead than not.
  • #30
  • Aug 26, 2013 6:52pm Aug 26, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting eurotrash
{quote} Markets do change. It really depends on what aspect you're talking about. Some things change, others are constant.
That's very true. Markets DO change but of course the thing that remains constant
is that they move up or down.

The reasons or "why" they change are sometimes difficult to perceive (but not always).
In '08 it was the Great Recession and in '09 it was Bernanke's "little green shoots" when
risk currencies coordinated with DOW/S&P.

Now, it's more about QE end or not and if the EUR crisis has really ended (etc)

I suspect that if one were never to look at news or "market movers" and simply trade
the method to which they have some devotion, they might be much more successful
in trading.

But IDK, I guess I don't have enough "kahunas" to try and trade that way. ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #31
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:31pm Aug 26, 2013 7:31pm
Well, what does it mean for the market to change?

If you mean change in the sense that it becomes more or less like its past trading action then this is something you can calculate. You can measure the distribution of returns from a market instrument and see how the distribution changes as a function of time, you can then quantify this change and see how much the market has changed quantitatively from a previous distribution. If you want you can also take a look at the market's degree of serial correlation and come up with a measure that allows you to get an idea about how well the market resembles a random walk. I have done this amply during the past 10 years, I can tell you that the market does change, quite significantly (this I can say from a quantitative statistical perspective, with high certainty). You can also look at things like cointegration and linear correlations between pairs and get an idea of how overall market structure changes.

Can you be profitable despite the change?

Yes! I have found that the key is to develop a way of trading that allows you to adjust to changes in market conditions. Create a method that is able to generate strategies by systematically searching for inefficiencies, then see how this method does under unknown market conditions in the past. For example you can test how creating a system using the last 5 years and trading it for the next year has done on the EUR/USD from 1995 to present. So your first test would be to create a system with 1995-2000 data, then test it on 2000-2001, then create for 1996-2001, test for 2001-2002, etc. You can then add all your performance under unknown conditions and get and estimate of whether you can successfully adapt to changes or not. I have traded solely using algorithmic strategies during the past decade, it can be done successfully. My personal methods generate billions of strategies based on PA, machine learning and TA and perform systematic evaluations of many different ways to create/change them.

Know that this is not simple. Strategies need to be changed and you need to know how to do this. If it was as easy as purchasing a commercial system, then everyone would be rich. It takes far more than that to succeed in mechanical trading. There is no set and forget solution, no mechanical system that will always work, the market evolves, as so should your systems/strategies. If you fail to evolve your strategies you are at a clear disadvantage against those who do. This is an information game, any piece of knowledge/understanding that another trader has that you don't have is your disadvantage.

Evidence this can be done?

You can look at the Barclay systematic trader index, which indexes the trading results from hedge funds and individual traders whose approach to trading (trading decisions) is at least 95% controlled by computers (http://www.barclayhedge.com/research...a/sub/sys.html). I can tell you, as a fact, that many there use this approach.
  • #32
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:52pm Aug 26, 2013 7:52pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting mack55
the market is like riding a dragon.
A dragon feathered snake you mean...
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #33
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:55pm Aug 26, 2013 7:55pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting seaman2
------------- you will be taking money from someone else and push him/her in misery. trading is not noble activity.

Trading becomes noble once you realize you are taking money from the banks....legally.....
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #34
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:59pm Aug 26, 2013 7:59pm
Volatility is the only constant. The most difficult thing is beating the time.
  • #35
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:07pm Aug 26, 2013 8:07pm
Quoting erik1
, which indexes the trading results from hedge funds and individual traders whose approach to trading (trading decisions) is at least 95% controlled by computers (http://www.barclayhedge.com/research...a/sub/sys.html). I can tell you, as a fact, that many there use this approach.

Yeah.... well just be careful ',bout that

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldma...193906822.html

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/F04...AN-RESULTS.JPG
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #36
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:15pm Aug 26, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting No-Luck
Volatility is the only constant. The most difficult thing is beating the time.
Yup. Mortality makes it more challenging.
  • #37
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:31pm Aug 26, 2013 8:31pm
Quoting No-Luck
Volatility is the only constant. The most difficult thing is beating the time.

How do you believe that volatility is constant???? So you're saying
that "volatility" is mostly always the same???

IF that's what you're saying then there's no hope
for you. (IHMO )

But all the best anyway...........................
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #38
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:57pm Aug 26, 2013 8:57pm
Ah, you guys right. Correction: There are TWO thing that are 100% guaranteed about the market. Some aspects of the market changes 100% of the time, some aspects remain exactly the same 100% of the time.

Confused? No. Excited. If Forest Gump plays Forex he would say, Forex is like a box of chocolate, you'll never know what you're gonna get =)

Although I'm really concerned if my method cease to work. I would be as clueless as the first time I entered the world of forex. But for this market cycle that has appeared since the beginning of market to stop, there has to be some nasty changes going on. Hopefully by then I've gotten enough money to invest it somewhere else.

Until such time, you I know I love you forex. I do. So don't go be changing like other b*tches.
  • #39
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:55pm Aug 26, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting Ishtana
Ah, you guys right. Correction: There are TWO thing that are 100% guaranteed about the market. Some aspects of the market changes 100% of the time, some aspects remain exactly the same 100% of the time. Confused?
Hello Ishtana...... Firstly, I don't believe there is anything that can be guaranteed 100%. I mean,
get real, you know it and I know it.

Quoting Ishtana
No. Excited. If Forest Gump plays Forex he would say, Forex is like a box of chocolate, you'll never know what you're gonna get =) Although I'm really concerned if my method cease to work. I would be as clueless as the first time I entered the world of forex.
You can only HOPE to know what's next. Do you think that you want to trade like Forrest Gump and think that
you never know what comes next. ???
Might be the greatest idea of all time but if so, why would you be concerned about your particular method?


Quoting Ishtana
Although I'm really concerned if my method cease to work. I would be as clueless as the first time I entered the world of forex.
...... and that statement is reason for concern. Think about it for a minute..

All the best
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #40
  • Aug 26, 2013 10:06pm Aug 26, 2013 10:06pm
Quoting Pipalicious
A market doesnt change - ever. But there are certain elements that do change. Markets go up and down - Nothing else. What changes is the amplitude of this 'up and down' stuff. A particular market could move hi/lo approx. 100ticks/day...but then it drops to 40ticks/day. Has this changed the market from moving up and down? Not at all, the only element that changed was its amplitude. Other than that, markets never change, as long as people keep buying and selling.

This.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
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