Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 71 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,401
  • Aug 26, 2013 1:11am Aug 26, 2013 1:11am
Hi All,

short EURCAD on daily supply..any advice ?
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  • #1,402
  • Aug 26, 2013 2:27am Aug 26, 2013 2:27am
Quoting fattony64
Hi All, short EURCAD on daily supply..any advice ? {image}

That daily supply is not fresh. Wait for confirmation before entering any shorts.


Price is also in weekly (not fresh) and monthly supply.


Just sit back and see what happens.
  • #1,403
  • Edited 3:00am Aug 26, 2013 2:33am | Edited 3:00am
I should have added ..that we are also at a weekly supply level ...thanks for the feedback AxlZ ..may have went to early on this ..have to wait and see
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  • #1,404
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:43am Aug 26, 2013 4:43am
Hi

i am in short gbp cad from 1.6487. Agresive entry.

I will try to add some position on the h1 speedbump.
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  • #1,405
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:51am Aug 26, 2013 4:51am
Quoting sebkor6
Hi i am in short gbp cad from 1.6487. Agresive entry. I will try to add some position on the h1 speedbump. {image}
I'm confused as to why you went short here? Can you explain?

I can't see any supply areas that price has hit on the daily. It seems like GBPCAD is still bullish.
  • #1,406
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:11am Aug 26, 2013 5:11am
Quoting sebkor6
Hi i am in short gbp cad from 1.6487. Agresive entry. I will try to add some position on the h1 speedbump. {image}
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I'm confused as to why you went short here? Can you explain? I can't see any supply areas that price has hit on the daily. It seems like GBPCAD is still bullish.
I'm also confused as to why you went short on that level Sebastian. Take a look at previous demand which is holding, price will probably hit that speedbump but previous demand has not been taken out, so it's not valid. I am waiting for a short but much higher, at your top level of supply at H1 1.6488.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,407
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:13am Aug 26, 2013 5:13am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I'm confused as to why you went short here? Can you explain? I can't see any supply areas that price has hit on the daily. It seems like GBPCAD is still bullish.
Here is the daily non fresh supply area. My first entry was very aggresive, on very top of this area.
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  • #1,408
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:14am Aug 26, 2013 5:14am
Quoting fattony64
Hi All, short EURCAD on daily supply..any advice ? {image}
Hello Fattony!
I'm not trading EURCAD, so I can't really tell you right now. I don't know if that D1 supply area is fresh or not, so I can't give you my opinion. If any trader out there is trading eurcad, maybe they will be able to tell you. That previous D1 bearish pinbar looks nice for a short though, so it could be a nice short, but I can't really tell you since I don't have eurcad as one of my pairs.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,409
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:46am Aug 26, 2013 5:46am
Slow day today with the GBP bank holiday.
  • #1,410
  • Aug 26, 2013 6:10am Aug 26, 2013 6:10am
Hi traders,

Wow! It took me almost an hour to read the thread from what happened this Week-end! Lots of questions in here!

I see that there is a bunch of people that dont even read the #1 post before asking a question.

I think it would be very easier for Alfonso and others who want to help on answering those questions.
Have a nice week of trading to you all!

Mfinab
  • #1,411
  • Aug 26, 2013 6:21am Aug 26, 2013 6:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Fattony! I'm not trading EURCAD, so I can't really tell you right now. I don't know if that D1 supply area is fresh or not, so I can't give you my opinion. If any trader out there is trading eurcad, maybe they will be able to tell you. That previous D1 bearish pinbar looks nice for a short though, so it could be a nice short, but I can't really tell you since I don't have eurcad as one of my pairs. Alfonso
Cheers Alfonso ..first post ..thanks for coming back looking forward to the next webinar !
  • #1,412
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:55am Aug 26, 2013 7:55am
GU Short

Here is a GU short I am watching on the 1hr chart.

Weekly chart we are inside a non fresh supply zone, Daily we have stacked fresh supply over head although the lower zone has yet to prove it`s worth. H4 we have broken an asending trend line and have come down from what is now a non fresh supply zone.

I am attaching two views of the 1hr chart. A zoomed out to show the two trendlines I have on. The upper fresh supply was what lead to the break of the upper line which was added as price started to climb more vertically off the main initial trendline. We then made a LH and a new zone off a RBD that lead to the break of the lower trendline, taking out the previous swing low (making a LL) and touching was is now no longer fresh demand. We had an intial move up but met supply and a sideways move shortly after. We are now seeing nice push up.

Entry and target is shown which would be 3:1.

Not 100% (still new to the whole S/D thing) sure whether this is a great set and forget or not but from what I saw on my way down through the charts tells me that shorts are the right side at the moment... If this push up does remain as a LH then I will be able to apply a nice downward trendline.

Time will tell.

Thoughts or comments are always appreciated.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,413
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:01am Aug 26, 2013 8:01am
Quoting pres78
GU Short Here is a GU short I am watching on the 1hr chart. Weekly chart we are inside a non fresh supply zone, Daily we have stacked fresh supply over head although the lower zone has yet to prove it`s worth. H4 we have broken an asending trend line and have come down from what is now a non fresh supply zone. I am attaching two views of the 1hr chart. A zoomed out to show the two trendlines I have on. The upper fresh supply was what lead to the break of the upper line which was added as price started to climb more vertically off the main initial...
I was short GU last week, but it has been consolidating heavily lately.

I'm personally not confident placing any trades on this pair or EU until I see some kind of clear directional movement resume.
  • #1,414
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:27am Aug 26, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I was short GU last week, but it has been consolidating heavily lately. I'm personally not confident placing any trades on this pair or EU until I see some kind of clear directional movement resume.
Looks as though the round number 5600 and the 15 min zone just below the hourly one I was watching si going to make my entry too high up to be triggered. The red vertical line is the hourly chart rally portion of the RBD zone that I was watching. As you can see the 15min chart has a higher up zone that is within the hourly zone (the one marked with levels by the rectangle indi) but for me the real supply move started lower down where I have manually drawn the lower red zone. This decision point lead to a strong move down that lead to the swing lows and trendline break I had mentioned in my above post so...

This is where we just saw a FTB into this zone and a sell off already good for 2:1.

Anyway I am still learning and trying to see what TF combinations and types of entries I want to build into my S/D trade plan.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,415
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:27am Aug 26, 2013 8:27am
Quoting pres78
GU Short Here is a GU short I am watching on the 1hr chart. Weekly chart we are inside a non fresh supply zone, Daily we have stacked fresh supply over head although the lower zone has yet to prove it`s worth. H4 we have broken an asending trend line and have come down from what is now a non fresh supply zone. I am attaching two views of the 1hr chart. A zoomed out to show the two trendlines I have on. The upper fresh supply was what lead to the break of the upper line which was added as price started to climb more vertically off the main initial...
Just a quick comment on GBPUSD.... Take a look at my chart.. The H1 trendline has been solidly broken, so that H1 supply is no longer valid. No clear direction for me, so doing nothing on the pound for now. Price is holding last week low (red beads), so won't short unless that support is taken out solidly.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,416
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:35am Aug 26, 2013 8:35am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Just a quick comment on GBPUSD.... Take a look at my chart.. The H1 trendline has been solidly broken, so that H1 supply is no longer valid. No clear direction for me, so doing nothing on the pound for now. Price is holding last week low (red beads), so won't short unless that support is taken out solidly. Alfonso {image}
Very good point I missed the fact that we had put in lower high swing point that allowed the decending trend line to be drawn. If price were to close back below would that trend line be considered valid again or would you need to wait to drawn a new one?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,417
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:42am Aug 26, 2013 8:42am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Very good point I missed the fact that we had put in lower high swing point that allowed the decending trend line to be drawn. If price were to close back below would that trend line be considered valid again or would you need to wait to drawn a new one?
We would need to violate the lower lows and create a new supply area on H1 in order to validate it. That's the way I do it, I am doing it in such mechanical way so that I always do the same thing over and over again! Well, in fact, in didn't violate the trendline solidly, since there is not a full OHCL candle above. I assumed it was going to happen (it looks like it's gonna close above the TL, but we never know), but it may not happen if we close below the trendline.


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,418
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:51am Aug 26, 2013 8:51am
USD CAD

Hi,

what do you think about short on usd cad? H1 supply around 1.0554.
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  • #1,419
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:04am Aug 26, 2013 9:04am
Quoting sebkor6
USD CAD Hi, what do you think about short on usd cad? H1 supply around 1.0554. {image} {image}
I would like to see another demand level being violated before I start taking shorts on USDCAD.
  • #1,420
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:13am Aug 26, 2013 9:13am
Alfonso,

Would you count this as a valid demand zone?

I'm not sure because there is only one bullish candle caused by it, even though it is a very large bullish candle.

AUDUSD 1h

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