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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #721
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:16am Aug 25, 2013 4:16am
Hi all,
There are so many valuable info about market like so many threads out there,
How can you analysis or predict EU or GU or EJ .... according to this strategy for next week ( just about 40 % not more than it ) ?
Best all
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #722
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:25am Aug 25, 2013 5:25am
Quoting kamifx
Hi all, There are so many valuable info about market like so many threads out there, How can you analysis or predict EU or GU or EJ .... according to this strategy for next week ( just about 40 % not more than it ) ? Best all
Just about 40% what?
  • #723
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:42am Aug 25, 2013 5:42am
Quoting Pinbar
Sorry Yeah, it is a bit confusing. Ok, I mean, after the Swing Failure, ideally are we looking for price to not enter the wick of the previous bar at all but, aggressively move towards the high of the failure bar? Obviously a close below the SP is going to take us out, is it not? As a close below is going to enter the wick of the SP failure bar. {image}
I see what you mean.

Well, ideally that's exactly what you want to see i.e price shooting off straight away without any attempts to fill in the wick. However the length of the wick provides the trade setup with the breathing space. Because the stops go beyond the fake out high/low it essentially means that given the strength of the setup you are willing to hold on to the trade up until the point it decides to take the stop out or completely fill the fake out wick.

I have seen many instances where price ends up filling the fake out wick partially before heading in our direction. Here's an example:

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Again the point that you make is totally valid that the best setups will always work straight away (just like we know the great pin bars at great locations like to break quick) but you don't get the "ideal scenario" to munch on all the time. That's where a wider more logical stop placement beyond the fake out high/low makes most sense.

Again we are isolating topics here for the sake of discussion but obviously a lot of other factors will come into play to determine what you want to make out of price looking to fill in the wick of a fake out bar. For a mediocre setup this could be the silence you get before a storm. For a stronger setup this could mean the hunt for more liquidity (perhaps to launch a massive assault).

g.
I believe . . .
  • #724
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:46am Aug 25, 2013 5:46am
Quoting kamifx
Hi all, There are so many valuable info about market like so many threads out there, How can you analysis or predict EU or GU or EJ .... according to this strategy for next week ( just about 40 % not more than it ) ? Best all
Hey Kami,

Nothing much on either of those pairs for me right now.

The purpose of a trading method is not to make out what price is looking to do on a certain pair all the time but to sniff out the occasional favorable setups where things line up for you nicely.

In that context, like I just mentioned, nothing for me on either of those pairs.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #725
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:24am Aug 25, 2013 9:24am
Fake out on EUR NZD. Is this a good fake out?
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  • #726
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:38am Aug 25, 2013 9:38am
Quoting str8
Fake out on EUR NZD. Is this a good fake out? {image}
Its a fake out for sure but I am not too confident heading back into the 1.71 RN.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #727
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:40am Aug 25, 2013 9:40am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Its a fake out for sure but I am not too confident heading back into the 1.71 RN. {image} g.
But this one's on my radar.

Close under the LLS as well as the 2.00 BRN. Quite an obvious target area too.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #728
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:23pm Aug 25, 2013 9:23pm
How about this pair, may be giving the input pattern when cutting the TL
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  • #729
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:10pm Aug 25, 2013 11:10pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} I see what you mean. Well, ideally that's exactly what you want to see i.e price shooting off straight away without any attempts to fill in the wick. However the length of the wick provides the trade setup with the breathing space. Because the stops go beyond the fake out high/low it essentially means that given the strength of the setup you are willing to hold on to the trade up until the point it decides to take the stop out or completely fill the fake out wick. I have seen many instances where price ends up filling the fake out wick partially...

Many thanks for the detailed explanation Ghous, it helps a lot.

The GBP/NZD has been on my books for a while now.
However, the close being below the VBRN makes it tricky to get in.
I imagine you are already in it off of the 2.000 today.
I got up too late for an entry at that point this morning.
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  • #730
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:43pm Aug 25, 2013 11:43pm
This is more experimental than the actual SFP as Friday's bar close slightly below the SP.
I am thinking that, the combination of the area between the Daily LCS at 0.7185 & the SP at 0.7191 will hold as a combination of support.
Even though the close of the Friday's bar was actually 0.7189, 1.1 pips below the SP low.
Price seems to have already tested the low of Friday's bar and shied away from it.
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  • #731
  • Aug 26, 2013 2:13am Aug 26, 2013 2:13am
Two trades on at the moment.
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  • #732
  • Aug 26, 2013 6:37am Aug 26, 2013 6:37am
Hi,Pinbar!This is sfp educated gap? or how it can be called. Thanks in advance.
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  • #733
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:42am Aug 26, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Many thanks for the detailed explanation Ghous, it helps a lot. The GBP/NZD has been on my books for a while now. However, the close being below the VBRN makes it tricky to get in. I imagine you are already in it off of the 2.000 today. I got up too late for an entry at that point this morning. {image}
Hey Steve,

Yes I am in, just below the 2.00 BRN.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #734
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:48am Aug 26, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Pinbar
Two trades on at the moment. {image}
Nice.

I thought and thought about GBP/JPY. Those preceding bar highs made me uncomfortable and eventually made me pass on it.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #735
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:53am Aug 26, 2013 7:53am
Quoting cesar8
How about this pair, may be giving the input pattern when cutting the TL {image}
Hey Cesar,

Sorry I missed your post. I just responded in a post above what my views are on the GBP/JPY.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #736
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:57am Aug 26, 2013 7:57am
Quoting brzvadeg
Hi,Pinbar!This is sfp educated gap? or how it can be called. Thanks in advance. {image}
Hey there,

I am not Steve, but to answer your question, that line you drew is what I refer to as HHR or Highest High or Resistance of a swing point. Its the reference line I use to watch the bar close on the fake out. So in case of an HHR, the fake out bar must close below the HHR.

In the reverse scenario the level is referred to as LLS or Lowest Low of Support which again serves the same purpose. The fake out bar this time must close above the LLS line.

Hope this is clear.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #737
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:58am Aug 26, 2013 7:58am
Quoting ghous
{quote} But this one's on my radar. Close under the LLS as well as the 2.00 BRN. Quite an obvious target area too. {image} g.
This is good stuff already specially when we are trading on a GBP bank holiday

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #738
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:04am Aug 26, 2013 8:04am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey there, I am not Steve, but to answer your question, that line you drew is what I refer to as HHR or Highest High or Resistance of a swing point. Its the reference line I use to watch the bar close on the fake out. So in case of an HHR, the fake out bar must close below the HHR. In the reverse scenario the level is referred to as LLS or Lowest Low of Support which again serves the same purpose. The fake out bar this time must close above the LLS line. Hope this is clear. g.
Thank you. Understood. The view is a little different. But the meaning is the same,we look forward to closing below and enter.
  • #739
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:30am Aug 26, 2013 8:30am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Nice. I thought and thought about GBP/JPY. Those preceding bar highs made me uncomfortable and eventually made me pass on it. {image} g.

Yeah, they also had me a bit concerned, that is why I decided to enter just before the break of the PB.

Damn, I intended to close out 2/3 of the USD/CHF but closed out the entire position by mistake.


Well, it was a fair trade.

When will you open your thread Ghous? Can't wait.

You must be at BE right now?
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  • #740
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:38am Aug 26, 2013 8:38am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Yeah, they also had me a bit concerned, that is why I decided to enter just before the break of the PB. Damn, I intended to close out 2/3 of the USD/CHF but closed out the entire position by mistake. Well, it was a fair trade. When will you open your thread Ghous? Can't wait. You must be at BE right now? {image}
Oops! Never mind at all. As they say shit happens.

Like you said, a fair trade anyhow.

My SL is reduced to a half bar one. Watching this very closely from here on.

The thread's on its way...I am arranging the material.

g.
I believe . . .
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