The Club! | Page 293 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

  • #5,841
  • Aug 24, 2013 4:41am Aug 24, 2013 4:41am
Quoting godim
{quote} {image}
Wrong or not wrong, we need to move forward, right?
I go with something fun. Applying this "template" has always been a game for me. But I noticed, I guess you already noticed that there is much truth in this "joke." This is my reason to show this chart.
I do not see all of which is encoded in it. I do not always turn your attention to this or that. But it is very easy to "read." You can calculate the level of each line in the chart. You need the scale of the price and still the coefficient the line. All this is shown on the graph.
The scale of the price. It is permanent. You might remember - 15.25 pips / day. But even if you forget can be calculated. For example: 13184-13062 = 122 pips / 8 days = 15.25 pips / day. Or 13672-12695 = 977 pips / 64 days = 15.26 pips / day. Guess of rounding.
The coefficient of each line. From beginning to end each line over a measured distance by the price and at the time. Main diagonals traveled 8 divisions by the price for 8 divisions at the time. Their coefficient is 8 X 8 = 1 X 1. Line that is resistance, travels 4 divisions by the price for 8 divisions at the time. Its coefficient is 1 X 2.
Let's calculate the level of yesterday. Take the level of 20 August - 13428. And from it subtract the movement for three days. 13428 - 3 x 15.25 x (1/2) = 13405.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 118 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,842
  • Aug 24, 2013 5:19am Aug 24, 2013 5:19am
Quoting godim
{quote} Wrong or not wrong, we need to move forward, right?
Hi godim, thanks for posting the chart(s). May I please ask, why did you begin the study as & from July 5th? Is there a relationship between this date & previous price movements? Cheers.
  • #5,843
  • Aug 24, 2013 6:27am Aug 24, 2013 6:27am
I have studied in depth these two rectangle area below, from H4 step by step till M5.
My conclusion is these are bullish area infact very bullish...

EU H1 chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #5,844
  • Aug 24, 2013 6:58am Aug 24, 2013 6:58am
Quoting andexQ
I have studied in depth these two rectangle area below, from H4 step by step till M5. My conclusion is these are bullish area infact very bullish... EU H1 chart: {image}
Yes, history since it was at 2750 until now is bullish. But what is Monday going to be? At some point in time, bullish has to turn to bearish. Yes?

There are hundreds of technical tools available that we can use to try and determine the next move, but none of them give you a large degree of certainty. At best, these tools may give you a 75% chance of being on the right side. Even EW analysis will not give you any more than 75% chance.

Right now there are both bullish EW counts as well as bearish ones and they are both correct. So, I have no choice but to rely on the macroeconomic picture to guide me.

We know that the Fed will be the first to tighten monetary policy and we also know that Europe will likely be the last to see a sustained economic recovery. So what does that say to me? It says loud and clear that there is less risk to be short, than to be long. Add to that the fact that technical tools are indicating bearish divergence so we should at least expect a move down, even if it is only a correction before another push upwards.

At the end of the day, without any emotional bias, I am still very much bearish the Euro against the dollar. If I need to buy Euros for any reason, I will buy them with Sterling, not USD.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,845
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:27am Aug 24, 2013 7:27am
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Heaviness may Continue

http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/08/...hnical_24.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,846
  • Aug 24, 2013 8:26am Aug 24, 2013 8:26am
We know that the Fed will be the first to tighten monetary policy and we also know that Europe will likely be the last to see a sustained economic recovery. So what does that say to me? It says loud and clear that there is less risk to be short, than to be long.



"Fed will be the first to tighten monetary policy" may give $ a rise.
But, there are other factors to be used for whether $ will rise. One case is if USA want $ to lower to boost its export, then, they will cap $ in some hide ways. Currency is related to that country's economics state and their need, and often be manipulated.

There are other fundamental models to assess and decide whether $ rise or drop. At the moment, fundamental models or fundy guys are working to forecast what happen and what state of all major countries economicy development before Xmas or 6 months, not Sept tapping as media talking. What happen in a country in end of 2013, or 6 months, or 12 months will be the key for assessment of the currency for macro expectation.

When they get a clear, reliable forecast $ in or before Xmas, then, they will trade or push down/pop up $ to forecasted target level. But, weekly, monthly (or quarterly chart is very reliable) chart often show fundy bias.
  • #5,847
  • Aug 24, 2013 8:51am Aug 24, 2013 8:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} But what is Monday going to be?
I don't know... Lol
  • #5,848
  • Aug 24, 2013 8:53am Aug 24, 2013 8:53am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Hi godim, thanks for posting the chart(s). May I please ask, why did you begin the study as & from July 5th? Is there a relationship between this date & previous price movements? Cheers.
Yes. I separated some time to study the problem and to try and get a solution. For 2012 there was information.
http://bonniehill.net/pages.aux/murr...rsal.2012.html
But 2013 is already gone.

I will share what I did.
This is the page that I've used.
http://bonniehill.net/pages.aux/murr...thquarter.html

Generally the information is as follows:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TABLICA_01.png Size: 113 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TABLICA_04.png Size: 153 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TABLICA_05.png Size: 20 KB


Finally, I made a table in excel, which calculated the beginning of each quarter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TABLICA_02.png Size: 111 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,849
  • Aug 24, 2013 9:11am Aug 24, 2013 9:11am
I have the same table for the NYSE.

Attached Image
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,850
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:02am Aug 24, 2013 10:02am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} I don't know... Lol
Don't worry. Nobody knows, so you are not alone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,851
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:04am Aug 24, 2013 10:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's all about risk management. That is the key to survival in this business. Have a great weekend.
#8533
My sentiments exactly!
FXcube
Attached Image
  • #5,852
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:11am Aug 24, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Jack168
...One case is if USA want $ to lower to boost its export, then, they will cap $ in some hide ways.
That is a very interesting point you raise. Yes, there are a few elements in the US that can and probably will manipulate dollar exchange rates. In fact I very much expect that to happen, but not really in a hidden way. Christine LaGarde of the IMF is actually telling central bankers around the world that they should intervene in currency markets in order to avoid volatility when the Fed starts scaling back asset purchases.

What tools they will use to intervene is unknown at this point, but I suspect that it will be something along the lines of rebalancing their foreign currency reserves. Now, while this may smooth out any volatility that may be caused by the Fed scaling back (tapering), it will not prevent the dollar from rising because the private banking system is much larger than the public one and therefore has more monetary transactional power (as opposed to policy power) to affect exchange rates than any reserve rebalancing the central banks do.

So, in the end, although it will most likely be controlled to a certain extent, the dollar will outperform other G10 currencies. That is a fact. The only question is when.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,853
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:15am Aug 24, 2013 10:15am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #8533 My sentiments exactly! FXcube {image}
HaHa. Love the dice. Is that where "cube" comes from?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,854
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:35am Aug 24, 2013 10:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} HaHa. Love the dice. Is that where "cube" comes from?
It's perfectly square!
I try to be hotter than a rolling dice!
FXcube
  • #5,855
  • Edited 10:53am Aug 24, 2013 10:42am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes. I separated some time to study the problem and to try and get a solution.
Thank you for the explanation & the links. I thought the basis of Gann was to draw a 1x1 from a specific point & take it from there, I didn't realise the specific start date was so important. In moving from math towards astrology I become a little sceptical. Didn't Gann lose a lot of his fortune though trying to tie astrology to the markets (one of a number of Gann scenarios I've seen)? I would definitely be happier if the price & time relationships were purely mathematical but so far your price-time analysis has been spot on so I will continue to watch & learn. Thanks again.
  • #5,856
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:00am Aug 24, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Thank you for the explanation & the links. I thought the basis of Gann was to draw a 1x1 from a specific point & take it from there, I didn't realise the specific start date was so important. In moving from math towards astrology I become a little sceptical. Didn't Gann lose a lot of his fortune though trying to tie astrology to the markets (one of a number of Gann scenarios I've seen)? I would definitely be happier if the price & time relationships were purely mathematical but so far your price-time analysis has been spot on so I will continue...
Yes. Relax. You distinguish between Murrey and Gann. First Gann with his fans, squares and other "mystic". Then Murrey, which makes possible the calculation of levels and "binding" them into fractals. Finally, we are trying to do all this work as one system. Look and you will see how simple it is all.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,857
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:14am Aug 24, 2013 11:14am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes. Relax. You distinguish between Murrey and Gann. First Gann with his fans, squares and other "mystic". Then Murrey, which makes possible the calculation of levels and "binding" them into fractals. Finally, we are trying to do all this work as one system. Look and you will see how simple it is all.
Oh, I forgot something. This is PA. I try using mofu of Gator, but his PA so complicated. I could not understand it. So I took PA by Robert Krausz and his HiLoActivator. He thought about Gann and Gann's graphics of swings. Carved exactly. No need for another PA. IMO
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,858
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:35am Aug 24, 2013 11:35am
EURUSD, Weekly, 2013 August 24
Global View?
Some support & resistance levels are in the focus in this frame below.
The daily upward range could win more power when the market will running down the monthly restistance line (~1.3625 could be in the favor).
Another option could be that we are running in a range more sideways if bulls and bears will fight together with no winner.
...and my favored option three: maybe we could struggling in this lathy upward daily range any longer .
If the market will going more north, I will taking more longs ~1.3335 with the target @ 1.3450 (weekly's resistance) at first (with taking a look at the daily pivotals). All my longer term short trades (target @ 1.2850) will stay in the market.
Let's see next week!
FXcube
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, Weekly, 2013 August 24, srl.jpg Size: 159 KB
  • #5,859
  • Edited 12:11pm Aug 24, 2013 11:49am | Edited 12:11pm
I not know. The theme for the duration of the year if it is interesting for all? When Gann worked the week was 6 days. For 52 weeks is 52 x 6 = 312 days. This can not be divided by 8. Any complications arise. But these were then, we work now. Yet some of us have of their chart 6 bar for the week. How do you think this affects your trend lines?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-6bara.png Size: 152 KB



Another problem is the missing bars. For example, my provider gives me only 119 bars of H1. This means a bar less. And every TL plotted graphics H1 and lower timeframe would be wrong.

EDIT: So before drawing TL think of the TF. Here FX Cube shows the solution - use the weekly chart.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,860
  • Aug 24, 2013 1:55pm Aug 24, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That's funny, but obviously he is talking about any wave that offers a divergence. However it is true that you will never get a divergence for the money wave (3), but depending on how wave 2 plays out, you might get a hidden divergence.
Hi PT,

Hope you have a nice weekend :-)


Out of my experience, nearly every wave ends with a divergence. If you do not see divergence, it is simply a mathematical problem of the indis. Only very very seldomly, you see most pressure in last wave. This can be seen mainly in commodities.

What is the trick to see the divergences?

One part of the equation is the right indicator, the other part is the right time-frame.


For spotting end of waves I use the Awesome Oscillator. Good description of Awesome oscillator can be found on my Blog or at the start page of Shangri-La


The best TF for the use of Awesome oscillator is that TF, that produces between 120 and 140 bars. That is the reason why I occasionally advertise the use of 20sec charts.

When you see a matured wave on say the 1h TF, and you can not spot divergence, try it on 15min, 5min, 1min

Best are such charting programs like JForex, where you can set the TF completely individual


I would love to find a charting program, that would constantly keep the bars at 120-140, after I have specified a starting point.


Have to think about that. Maybe this can be done via Excel


BTW: today I re-climbed my failed fifth from yesterday, because I hate truncation LOL
2 traders viewing now