Your opinion about my strategy | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Yours opinion about hedging strategy 12 replies

Seeking Your Opinion on Broker... 2 replies

What is your opinion on esignal ? 5 replies

your opinion 3 replies

want your opinion 1 reply

Your opinion about my strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Sep 17, 2013 1:54am Aug 23, 2013 8:10am | Edited Sep 17, 2013 1:54am
Hello,

i have a scalping strategy wich show me good backtest when i have low spread under 1 Pip, but i dont know how realistic it is that this can work same good in livemarket and that is why i would like to ask people here what they think abouth that.

If the strategy work in livemarket like in backtest then it would be fine, i have record here a backtest on video for EURUSD:
Inserted Video



What do you traders here think, is it possible to make in livemarket win with such a strategy?
  • #2
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:48am Aug 23, 2013 8:48am
good lucjk
  • #3
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:53am Aug 23, 2013 9:53am
Quoting fbox2y
good lucjk
thank you.
Have you a tipp for me where i can find people wich have a big accout and wich want to try tradeing this with me toghter?
I would be happy when we can use this on a big account with low spread and make then win share.
  • #4
  • Aug 23, 2013 11:02am Aug 23, 2013 11:02am
Hey guys!
As I am still a youngster here, I can not open my own thread so lets make this one as a common, where anyone could share his or her strategy. Heres is mine, I am really interested in you opinion. If you prefer to have even more calculations, I am more than happy to play with the numbers all day long.
Here we go!

Aperyon’s Trading Strategy

EUR/USD and USD/JPY
Timeframe H1-H4 depends on which is big enough to draw in the trend lines on
Use fractals to see the significant highs and lows.
Draw the support and resistance lines, even though they might be horizontal.
Measure the range of the trend.
Price touches the SUPPORT!
If it breaks out by 10% of the whole range TRADE
If it goes back to the channel by 10% TRADE
example: Channel with the range of 200 pip. Trend heading downward price touches the support then goes down 20pip SHORT here with SL 40pip and
Take profit 1 32pip (20% of remaining 28% of total)
S/L goes to Break even and close half of the trade
Take Profit 2 90pip (50% of remaining 55% of total)
S/L goes to TP1 level and close the half of the remaining 0,25 of origanal
Take profit 3 162 pip (90% of remaining 91% of total)
Close trade
Ideal trade:

H4 full range 200 pip. Price touches support and goes back 20 pip. Open trade at 0.04 lot Margin used $104. 20% reached which is 180*0.2=32pip close the half of your position so you have made $6,4. Price goes further reaches 50% which is 180*0.5=90pip. You close 0.01 lot realising $9. and then the price goes even further and at 90% which is 180*0.9=162pip which is again $16.2 when you close the last 0.01 lot of your trade. All the profit you have made is $6.4+$9+$16.2=$31.6 when you have risked 4*40=$16
Therefore the RR is =1.975 instead of 2 which is the standard.
If everything goes wrong at the begining: -$16
at TP1: +$6,4 (25%of the risked)
at TP2: +$6,4+$9+$3,2=$18,6 (116% of risked)
  • #5
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:31pm Aug 23, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting PlanAndTrade
The stoploss is small in this strategy, just 10 Pips and it use a traillingstop of 2 pips. ?
And you are running this on 30 min chart?! This must be a joke....
  • #6
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:55pm Aug 23, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting PlanAndTrade
Hello, i have a scalping strategy wich show me good backtest when i have low spread under 1 Pip, but i dont know how realistic it is that this can work same good in livemarket and that is why i would like to ask people here what they think abouth that. If the strategy work in livemarket like in backtest then it would be fine, i have record here a backtest on video for EURUSD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0v7pp1gyqo And on other pairs it makes simular backtest. But just when the Spread is under 1 Pip, some Broker offer so low spreads....


whats your TP pls ? how many yrs that backtest?
  • #7
  • Aug 24, 2013 2:11am Aug 24, 2013 2:11am
Quoting ARTjoMS
{quote} And you are running this on 30 min chart?! This must be a joke....

yes the backtest on M30 and M15 and H1 Chart look simular with just 10 Pips Stoploss, because the traillingstop is so small mostly the orders can be close fast before the price hit the stoploss. But it is not a good risk reward ratio. it must have always high hitrate.
  • #8
  • Aug 24, 2013 2:12am Aug 24, 2013 2:12am
Quoting Forexbuster
{quote} whats your TP pls ? how many yrs that backtest?
the takeprofit is traillingstop, the backtest is from 1999-2013
it does work just when the spread is very low. when the spread is higher then 1 pip it dont look simular good.
  • #9
  • Aug 24, 2013 6:37am Aug 24, 2013 6:37am
Hi,
The equity curve looks very very interesting. But what I would suggest and U also have said it, is the Risk:Reward Ratio, to have or to take RR 2; RR 3; would make this strategy more efficient ofc. But I think it would not work then... I have some more clues, but U didn't mention when the trade is open(what are the coditions). IMHO would help to open the trades on Hour changes or 30M changes, as the market could reverse.
  • #10
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:03am Aug 24, 2013 7:03am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hi P&T
although many broker offer spreads lower then 1pip, there are conditions that apply to being able to have access to that type of account, further more, very rarely will you enter a trade that has only a 1pips or lower spread even with the best brokers.

I'd suggest that you preset the backtest to 3 pip fix spread and re-run the test ensuring you use tick data. the next issue is that to have the data back far enough for you to test back to 1999 you have either A) purchased the history from your broker or B)downloaded it through the history centre in MT4, in whcih case you have download data from Metatrader and not a broker - i assure this is not good or accurate data and had candles missing. (even the 10 years of the best data out there has candles missing in the earlier years - and i did pay for it)

i would start with a clean MT4 and open the 1min chart of the pair you wish to trade and run the charts back as far as they will go, backtesting to 1999 is pointless for scalping systems, so run it over the last year to start with, then expand it back 5 years, if it still works then forward test for a few months in demo and see if the results match the backtest

forget about R:R, if the system breakeven on most trades and makes profits on many, then the system works - run with it

Good luck
  • #11
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:36am Aug 24, 2013 7:36am
Quoting danos
Hi, The equity curve looks very very interesting. But what I would suggest and U also have said it, is the Risk:Reward Ratio, to have or to take RR 2; RR 3; would make this strategy more efficient ofc. But I think it would not work then... I have some more clues, but U didn't mention when the trade is open(what are the coditions). IMHO would help to open the trades on Hour changes or 30M changes, as the market could reverse.
If you try to get better risk reward ratio then you have not same good results, because in sideway market the price dont move much, with a 2 pips traillingstop it can also make sometimes wins in sidewaymarket, that is the main reason why it show good backtest results, because he also can make with small traillingstop in sidewaymarkets wins.

if you want have better risk reward ratio then you must trade it manuell and decide when to close a trade wich have become a runner.
  • #12
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:40am Aug 24, 2013 7:40am
Quoting MPP
Hi P&T although many broker offer spreads lower then 1pip, there are conditions that apply to being able to have access to that type of account, further more, very rarely will you enter a trade that has only a 1pips or lower spread even with the best brokers. I'd suggest that you preset the backtest to 3 pip fix spread and re-run the test ensuring you use tick data. the next issue is that to have the data back far enough for you to test back to 1999 you have either A) purchased the history from your broker or B)downloaded it through the history...
i will make a forward test on a demo account
  • #13
  • Aug 24, 2013 8:48am Aug 24, 2013 8:48am
Hello P & T, That equity curve is incredible. I am interested in knowing what program you are using to backtest this, i would like to use it. Thanks
  • #14
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:21am Aug 25, 2013 11:21am
Hey again, yes, the spread is the main problem. I had a similar "kiss" strategy. It was based on cutting losses and letting profit run. On the end of the week it was in huge profit, every order was closed. It had plenty of loosers, but only 3pips stops. Then there was ussually a runner with more then 100pips. But to be honest, this will never work on real data. Cuz there is a slippage and higher (not fixed) spreads as my backtests didn't use. And that's it. Money from these strategies $0, as it still looks good on backtests.
  • #15
  • Last Post: Aug 25, 2013 11:34am Aug 25, 2013 11:34am
Quoting danos
Hey again, yes, the spread is the main problem. I had a similar "kiss" strategy. It was based on cutting losses and letting profit run. On the end of the week it was in huge profit, every order was closed. It had plenty of loosers, but only 3pips stops. Then there was ussually a runner with more then 100pips. But to be honest, this will never work on real data. Cuz there is a slippage and higher (not fixed) spreads as my backtests didn't use. And that's it. Money from these strategies $0, as it still looks good on backtests.
your strategy idea sound good, use bigger stoloss 5-10 pips and let the order run.
this strategy is very sensibel, it must have very low spread otherwise it dont work, so it is not so save.
0 traders viewing now