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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,321
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:48am Aug 23, 2013 6:48am
Quoting 4tiger
ate too much too fast, need time to digest... having a beer to wash it all down. no really, I'm having a beer. This is wow: {quote} Here's one of my own, my go-to song at KTV (karaoke) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7xmoYFFduk {quote} I wouldn't want to scare everyone.. I am better looking than this guy in the music video
so sad.

if i go k-ok i sing.....

Inserted Video


regards
  • #42,322
  • Edited 7:19am Aug 23, 2013 6:57am | Edited 7:19am
ok since travelling, here enjoy .

something old, some thoughts new.

Inserted Video


regards
better you watch after usd consumer figs hor.
bra on.
(battle ready amours)

why do i keep getting this hanging on a cliff feelings.
eta 30 mins.

chilli pop it, chilli pop it, chilli pop it.
  • #42,323
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:27am Aug 23, 2013 7:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} salutations. Hope dad is in pink of health. any son remembers his dad is a good son. regards
He's still doing good. works daily and has coffee with his friends.
Had a couple minor issues lately that scared the crap out of me.
Turned out ok though.

Thanks for the well wishes.
  • #42,324
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:27am Aug 23, 2013 7:27am
Was just getting to the AOW material earlier today

I've read AOW before but not in a trading context. Here is a good film that I think of when I hear AOW. I will always remember the Attack by Fire at the end of part II (no spoilers).

Title: 赤壁
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Cliff_(film)

(sorry no English Captions)
Inserted Video


Part II
Inserted Video
  • #42,325
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:37am Aug 23, 2013 7:37am
nothing doing.
back to thumb twiddling.
  • #42,326
  • Edited 8:38am Aug 23, 2013 7:38am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting 4tiger
Was just getting to the AOW material earlier today I've read AOW before but not in a trading context. Here is a good film that I think of when I hear AOW. I will always remember the Attack by Fire at the end of part II (no spoilers). Title: 赤壁 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Cliff_(film) (sorry no English Captions) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6KmIs6GUl8 Part II http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6SPgI3YPVY

red cliff again?
the battle ground already submerged underwater.
by God maybe.
Ya Chi Bi is already underwater.

nature seems erased lots things.

One of the impact from they diverting the hwang he, was many historical sites went under water.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post2203338

regards

hwang he = yellow river.

Inserted Video


a great river that flows east now flows north.
everyone wants influence the world.
even euro supposed gone south , now flows north .

Inserted Video
  • #42,327
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:00am Aug 23, 2013 8:00am
Hi all

i have "read" , i better use the word "study" the thread ,since few weeks , and i should say Full-time 8h to 12h a day to study carefully post and charts ..... and i still feel like a" stupid donkey"... i can't really explain to myself the process to read the "market direction" using the romance of the 3 kingdoms .... i'm just trading EURUSD i'm not smart enough , or may be too old to trade 2 or 3 currencies at the same time .

so basically i have 3 naked 1H chart in front of me EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD and trying to figure out the "potential direction" of EURUSD
if my analysis is = short because usdjpy is going up and GBPUSD is going down so EURUSD should go down , so if i have to open a position it should be SHORT ??? ( it is not too simple ???)

is it right or im really "stupid donkey" ? please if someone could help me to find the missing part of this challenging puzzle

Regards

ps= snowballing and rescueing a position no problem at all ,
  • #42,328
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:15am Aug 23, 2013 8:15am
Quoting Redsunfx
Hi all i have "read" , i better use the word "study" the thread ,since few weeks , and i should say Full-time 8h to 12h a day to study carefully post and charts ..... and i still feel like a" stupid donkey"... i can't really explain to myself the process to read the "market direction" using the romance of the 3 kingdoms .... i'm just trading EURUSD i'm not smart enough , or may be too old to trade 2 or 3 currencies at the same time . so basically i have 3 naked 1H chart in front of me EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD and trying to figure out the "potential...
mindset, redsun, mindset.
i read your post already i can feel you cannot find.
This because you looking for something.

Sometimes , we may just lose a diamond, while keep collecting stones.

calm mind, meditate, OBSERVE then conclude. and even that is not final.
rushing never helps.
breath easy, use mind observe, and less opinions may help.
What you know you know.
But what you know and not practise is nothing do with you. Is just ambience.
What you truely know , you can mobilise.

When you see a ship , you know its a ship.
But if you want to be a ship you need be able to float.


regards
  • #42,329
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:17am Aug 23, 2013 8:17am
Quoting Redsunfx
Hi all i have "read" , i better use the word "study" the thread ,since few weeks , and i should say Full-time 8h to 12h a day to study carefully post and charts ..... and i still feel like a" stupid donkey"... i can't really explain to myself the process to read the "market direction" using the romance of the 3 kingdoms .... i'm just trading EURUSD i'm not smart enough , or may be too old to trade 2 or 3 currencies at the same time . so basically i have 3 naked 1H chart in front of me EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD and trying to figure out the "potential...
Hey Redsunfx, if I may? yes I think that's right.
So if USDJPY is going up (USD strong),
and GBPUSD is down (also USD strong),
But EURUSD is going Up (USD weakness).
Then EURUSD is acting differently and might go down too.

3 kingdoms method is based on the divergence, also seen when using technical indicators (is that taboo to say in here? )
Price is making higher highs while the indicator is not (price might then fall)

Price is making lower lows while the indicator is not (price might then rise)

Could you pass me some info on snowballing to rescue a position?
I'm not sure if the way to go is to hedge the trade,
or if its to average down (add to a losing position).

I'm thinking it's the former...
  • #42,330
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:31am Aug 23, 2013 8:31am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} Hey Redsunfx, if I may? yes I think that's right. So if USDJPY is going up (USD strong), and GBPUSD is down (also USD strong), But EURUSD is going Up (USD weakness). Then EURUSD is acting differently and might go down too. 3 kingdoms method is based on the divergence, also seen when using technical indicators (is that taboo to say in here? ) Price is making higher highs while the indicator is not (price might then fall) Price is making lower lows while the indicator is not (price might then rise) Could you pass me some info on snowballing...
maybe but have you considered?

$ yen up can be due to usd strength, or due to managing because yen too strong?
cable down because someone wants more tourist.
euro up because every one in euroland paying for it thru luxenborg.

3 kingdoms is about relationships. Divergence is only 1 aspect to that relationship, when they not compatable.

What poing learn rescue when you cannot flow the dance.
Is double edge sword.
be care , is very sharp blade.

Is a tool in your bag of tricks.
You not use same tool do everything do you?


regards
  • #42,331
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:40am Aug 23, 2013 8:40am
Quoting fti
maybe but have you considered? $ yen up can be due to usd strength, or due to managing because yen too strong? cable down because someone wants more tourist. euro up because every one in euroland paying for it thru luxenborg. 3 kingdoms is about relationships. Divergence is only 1 aspect to that relationship, when they not compatable.
Yes I noticed that about right after I posted
it could be USD strength OR abenomics weakening the yen (as we have already seen)!

thank you fti

Quoting fti
What poing learn rescue when you cannot flow the dance. Is double edge sword. be care , is very sharp blade. Is a tool in your bag of tricks. You not use same tool do everything do you? regards
Ohh. Got it.
I have seen someone "rescue" a trade much like someone would double down their bets in a gamble haha. entire head just taken off hahah.

ok ok, more reading for me! less writing...
  • #42,332
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:44am Aug 23, 2013 8:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} red cliff again? the battle ground already submerged underwater. by God maybe. Ya Chi Bi is already underwater. nature seems erased lots things. One of the impact from they diverting the hwang he, was many historical sites went under water. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post2203338 regards hwang he = yellow river. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGoHQ7c5I2I a great river that flows east now flows north. everyone wants influence the world. even euro supposed gone south , now flows north...

so sorry.
didn't realise the clip is down.
ya, bad achieval media, what to do? here today gone tomorrow.
then peeps dig up bones and assume.

was same . thanks for rehashing it.
yes you correct, many lesson there. thanks 4 tiger

read the book, even more lessons.

regards
  • #42,333
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:48am Aug 23, 2013 8:48am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} Hey Redsunfx, if I may? yes I think that's right. So if USDJPY is going up (USD strong), and GBPUSD is down (also USD strong), But EURUSD is going Up (USD weakness). Then EURUSD is acting differently and might go down too. 3 kingdoms method is based on the divergence, also seen when using technical indicators (is that taboo to say in here? ) Price is making higher highs while the indicator is not (price might then fall) Price is making lower lows while the indicator is not (price might then rise) Could you pass me some info on snowballing...
4tiger

Thank's a lot for your nice answer , and i forgot to thank's everybody for making this thread so interesting everyday ..

to give you an answer about the rescue of a position :
1.not all bad position should be rescue
2.if the decision is made to rescue , make sure that the higher time frame confirm that you are right to start the rescue ( im trading on 5 mn chart , and i use 1h graph to make sure that i dont start to rescue a position against the 1h trend in place ...( i repeat not all losing position deserve a rescue , trading on a 5 mn im using 15 pips SL if i dont rescue my position )
3 if i decide to rescue a position i use =
1 1 2 3 5 sometimes 8 (fibonacci suite ) for exemple first entry is 0.1 lot the sequence will be ; 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 and if needed 0.8 lot but in normal market condition +95% rescue is 0.1 .01 0.2 0.3 sequence ... if after these 4 entries im still losing i usually cut 60% of the position and i continue the rescue until i find a way out .

but i repeat not all position should be rescue .. if you rescue against hte 1 h trend you are more averaging a losing position than rescuing

hope it help

regards
  • #42,334
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:56am Aug 23, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} 4tiger Thank's a lot for your nice answer , and i forgot to thank's everybody for making this thread so interesting everyday .. to give you an answer about the rescue of a position : 1.not all bad position should be rescue 2.if the decision is made to rescue , make sure that the higher time frame confirm that you are right to start the rescue ( im trading on 5 mn chart , and i use 1h graph to make sure that i dont start to rescue a position against the 1h trend in place ...( i repeat not all losing position deserve a rescue , trading on...


ya ok something like that, i think.

regards
  • #42,335
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:02am Aug 23, 2013 9:02am
Hi guys!

Sorry for posting here before reading dozens of comments but may I ask what the main aim of this thread is? Is it simply a chat room or much more Technical Analysts sharing charts / trades. Price Action or plain setups like H&S?
What can I learn from this thread? Is it more psychology or trading oriented?

Please give me a short answer and I promise if I like it, then I'll start from the beginning

Thanks guys, have a nice weekend!
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #42,336
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:03am Aug 23, 2013 9:03am
Hi FTI
Nice to see you posting and
joking means you in a good mood

For new Guys not enough to read and understand because when you meet
the market in person it is hard to implement what ever you learned
because there is always changing situation. and not always we are sure.
So i think we need piece by piece gather different situation and different
scenarios into our box of expirience
And always with Right MO and Right MM.
Nimble,Humble and no rigidity.
To everybody Have a nice Weekend
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,337
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:04am Aug 23, 2013 9:04am
wow, usd housing tanks the usd.

becareful.

flow man flow.
  • #42,338
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:06am Aug 23, 2013 9:06am
Quoting fti
red cliff again? the battle ground already submerged underwater. by God maybe. Ya Chi Bi is already underwater.
Oh no! Then how did they film it?

Quoting LamerTrader
Hi guys! Sorry for posting here before reading dozens of comments but may I ask what the main aim of this thread is? Is it simply a chat room or much more Technical Analysts sharing charts / trades. Price Action or plain setups like H&S? What can I learn from this thread? Is it more psychology or trading oriented? Please give me a short answer and I promise if I like it, then I'll start from the beginning Thanks guys, have a nice weekend! Stephen
You can start where I started, on page 2114
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6908304
  • #42,339
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:08am Aug 23, 2013 9:08am
Quoting LamerTrader
Hi guys! Sorry for posting here before reading dozens of comments but may I ask what the main aim of this thread is? Is it simply a chat room or much more Technical Analysts sharing charts / trades. Price Action or plain setups like H&S? What can I learn from this thread? Is it more psychology or trading oriented? Please give me a short answer and I promise if I like it, then I'll start from the beginning Thanks guys, have a nice weekend! Stephen
I will Leave to FTI owner of the tread to answer you
I just want to say that no thread exists so much time if it is not river of knowledge.
This thread started 26.Nov.2007 and leave till this day and i think will leave a long time.
It Means that people truly found in here something for them
And if i may to add a little everyone found here A way of being Real Human and with ants job maybe a good trader.
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,340
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:09am Aug 23, 2013 9:09am
Quoting LamerTrader
Hi guys! Sorry for posting here before reading dozens of comments but may I ask what the main aim of this thread is? Is it simply a chat room or much more Technical Analysts sharing charts / trades. Price Action or plain setups like H&S? What can I learn from this thread? Is it more psychology or trading oriented? Please give me a short answer and I promise if I like it, then I'll start from the beginning Thanks guys, have a nice weekend! Stephen
Nothing.
aim of thread, waste cyberspace.

why learn things, you already know everything.
you will only see 1 crazy chap trying leave some stuff behind for peeps who may WANT to learn, stuff they already know.


regards
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