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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #5,741
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:08am Aug 23, 2013 6:08am
Quoting Sober_Colm
This is Oanda's current l/s open-position situation: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios. Watch out for another low-volume short cleanout this evening as those retail positions are there for the taking. I'd say there are plenty of stops over just 3450. It's just one scenario, I hope I'm wrong. Personally I'd prefer to see a close under 3330/40 today, but just when you think you're safe............
Very high risk for the retail crowd. I definitely agree with that.
However, if the big banks are telling the truth that they no longer see hope for more upside, I don't think there will be any more attacks and they just might let the retail crowd doom themselves later when they cover their long running short positions and start going long as price starts dropping.

It's not always an attack on price. It's also an attack on the crowd psychology. A retailer who has been holding an underwater short position for a very long time and maybe even came close to margin call a few times (that's a large majority of the crowd) would be elated to close at BE, and since by now they are convinced we are in a bull market, they will start trying to pick a bottom as this sucker tanks hard.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,742
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:11am Aug 23, 2013 6:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote}...if the big banks are telling the truth
Herein lies the problem.
  • #5,743
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:12am Aug 23, 2013 6:12am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Herein lies the problem.
Yep. Agreed.
However, retailers are constantly trying to pick tops and bottoms and at some point the big boys have to change direction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,744
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:18am Aug 23, 2013 6:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. Agreed. However, retailers are constantly trying to pick tops and bottoms and at some point the big boys have to change direction.
...and this is where it is handy to look at money flow.
US treasury yields are rising and that clearly shifts the the rate differential more in favour of the USD
Also when the Fed starts tapering, money has to come from somewhere to buy up those bonds (at a nice rate) that the Fed is not buying at the auctions.
With EM countries seeing their currencies devaluing against the buck, they have to hedge themselves somehow and the most logical is via US Treasuries.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,745
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:23am Aug 23, 2013 6:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Just an idea {image}
  • #5,746
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:41am Aug 23, 2013 6:41am
Quoting milam
{quote} I will answer this while my TP is reached. 1) Exactly it was not referred to you, I was answering my view on the concept of pure price action in a general sense. 2) My mentioned to Cube was as a sense of gratitude toward him, I applied my way. 3) I did jump a bit at him because he is constantly correcting people without understanding much about things and when he is corrected he reacts as an old woman that never got a f@ck, I remember that Shick initial was asking him politely to just make a bit of sense of all that, his reply...

Hi Milam,

regarding the live trades:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post6913321

I do not know, if a posting a trade nearly 25 minutes after the fact is really live trade - please take the time to report "within minutes"



regarding the communication skills:

archaic, taken from gypsies, mystique, " reacts as an old woman that never got a f@ck" etc. have been your words lately - what shall I say


regarding the Forexcube-like trade:

if you say Forexcube-style trade, we can not know, that you have your own variant on it - again communication?



regarding abrupt reply by Godim:


he has made it so often clear, that he only likes to deliver analysis - he even admitted, that he is better on analysis than on trade. Why can't we respect that? Why has Godim to justify that over and over again

And here again communication: have you ever tried to express what you want to say in a language which you really do not speak at all or very badly?

Even in English it is sometimes messy here, since we all (or most of us) are not native English speaker




regarding Godims analysis and what you take from it (or not)

me, as well as some other members here take value from that, what Godim offers. That should finally be enough to end the discussion


I advised in the past already: either set Godim on ignore or shut up is the best solution.

And when Godim knows, that you have him on ignore, I think he sees no value in asking you questions or make proposals. Life can be soooo easy.


But I have to write one of this postings after the other in order to maintain this thread healthy.


The simplest solution for me would be to make use of the hosts privilege to end this mess, but hope springs eternal, so hoping that all will be good and easy in future.


Love you all
  • #5,747
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:46am Aug 23, 2013 6:46am
Quite tangible was the breakthrough of the yellow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 52 KB


The cable suggests "down". Let's see the euro.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,748
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:06am Aug 23, 2013 7:06am
Quoting godim
Quite tangible was the breakthrough of the yellow. {image} The cable suggests "down". Let's see the euro.
On Monday, a new bear fan. Things need to be "run" by any rules. If the rules are followed, the image "is displayed."

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 57 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,749
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:08am Aug 23, 2013 7:08am
Guys i have a question, how US military invasion in any kind conflict affects dollar , positive way or negative ?? im not fundamental person
  • #5,750
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:15am Aug 23, 2013 7:15am
Yes. Missed reminded of the eur/gbp. Especially if the euro goes up.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,751
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:21am Aug 23, 2013 7:21am
Quoting godim
Yes. Missed reminded of the eur/gbp. Especially if the euro goes up.
The chances of this are slim. But why not start? In my graphics not supported. On the contrary there is a strong resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 94 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,752
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:28am Aug 23, 2013 7:28am
Once with PipTraper talking about it. As soon as the market is not doing what it could mean he wants to do the opposite. Let's see.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #5,753
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:43am Aug 23, 2013 7:43am
Quoting Mad Russian
Guys i have a question, how US military invasion in any kind conflict affects dollar , positive way or negative ?? im not fundamental person
It's USD positive for a few reasons
1. It boosts business in the defence industry
2. It sends military men away from their wives who now have control of the pay to buy new dresses and shoes.
3. The countries where the military action occurs, suffers economically and so they exchange their local currency for US Dollars to protect the value of their savings.
4. Other countries that may be impacted by the military action may also do the same (See #3)
5. If the military action also has an impact on a regional (Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, Africa) economy, this triggers a risk aversion in the equity markets in those areas and of course they send their money into US treasuries for safety and hedging purposes. This may also be bullish for gold as it has a perceived safety value.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,754
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:45am Aug 23, 2013 7:45am
Quoting Mad Russian
Guys i have a question, how US military invasion in any kind conflict affects dollar , positive way or negative ?? im not fundamental person
The Long View: If recent invasions are anything to go by then I guess petro(or LNG)dollars spring to mind, which in the long term gives the dollar strenght. As long as they can keep the oil/ gas flowing from a friendly country then people will need dollars to buy that oil which strengthens the dollar. If they can just get that gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey/ Europe then the steady flow of gas & consequent need for petrodollars might help their currency afloat even if their economy can't. That's my long-view anyway; there's usually oil or gas involved (I'm not necessarily saying that's the only reason for US invasions but it's definitely a consequence).

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 3. The countries where the military action occurs, suffers economically and so they exchange their local currency for US Dollars to protect the value of their savings.
Syrian Pound has been hammered in the past 6 months & businesses are now using Euro & dollars. An invasion will ensure that becomes dollars only, just like in Iraq!
  • #5,755
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:45am Aug 23, 2013 7:45am
Quoting godim
Once with PipTraper talking about it. As soon as the market is not doing what it could mean he wants to do the opposite. Let's see.
There is a saying for that.
"What cannot go up, must come down"
or
"What cannot go down, must come up"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,756
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:48am Aug 23, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} The Long View: If recent invasions are anything to go by then I guess petro(or LNG)dollars spring to mind, which in the long term gives the dollar strenght. As long as they can keep the oil/ gas flowing from a friendly country then people will need dollars to buy that oil which strengthens the dollar. If they can just get that gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey/ Europe then the steady flow of gas & consequent need for petrodollars might help their currency afloat even if their economy can't. That's my long-view anyway; there's usually oil...
Yes I forgot that piece, so here it is...

6. If it causes any energy supply disruption or at least increases the risk of such, then energy dependent countries will hoard USD in order to be able to source it from elsewhere (because oil is traded in USD)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,757
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:52am Aug 23, 2013 7:52am
Quoting godim
{quote} If support: {image} I think the most important support is yellow line. The aim at the upper yellow. There may be DownSwings between blue and pink. I think so.

Hi Godim and all,

There seems to be much consternation at times on Gann charts and analysis. I understand the charts can appear "very busy" and one is left to say, well there are so many lines, which one should I trade?

But to me, it makes perfect sense. Godim, please correct me if I am wrong, but this is how I see the market and your charts. It is essentially an if-then analysis.
That is, if certain key levels show to be support or resistance, then they open up future price targets. You could trade them this way on larger time frames.

I do not use Gann charts but I like to see Godim's charts as often I will see the same price levels based on alternative analysis. Then, as I have posted, our price targets will agree. How does this happen? It surely can not be an accident or coincidence.

To me, if-then analysis is important for the larger picture and helpful to determine the possible future pathway of the market. No different than an EWC approach. For me, when certain key price targets are hit, when certain key relationships between waves and swings are observed, and when we the market react at important levels, it gives us clues as to future price targets and increases their probability.

This is a rather complex subject, so I hope I have adequately explained the premise. That being said, I understand quite a few people here like to scalp and for the most part, these charts would not be as useful. Ok, at least, this is how I "see" it. However, if your analysis and price levels are accurate, I have found you can scalp these levels "to the pip".

Please continue to share your competing approaches as I am interested in virtually anything related to trading and finance :nerd:and hope to glean nuggets of information from other person's approach or plans. Also, sometimes, something is staring me in the face and I do not "see" it until someone posts it.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,758
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:53am Aug 23, 2013 7:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's USD positive for a few reasons 1. It boosts business in the defence industry 2. It sends military men away from their wives who now have control of the pay to buy new dresses and shoes. 3. The countries where the military action occurs, suffers economically and so they exchange their local currency for US Dollars to protect the value of their savings. 4. Other countries that may be impacted by the military action may also do the same (See #3) 5. If the military action also has an impact on a regional (Europe, Middle East, Asia, South...
thanks PT AND SOBER COLM
  • #5,759
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:16am Aug 23, 2013 8:16am
EURUSD, M1, 2013 August 23
Overcross Scalping
Profit: +1.5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, M1, 2013 August 23.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #5,760
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:18am Aug 23, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Godim and all, There seems to be much consternation at times on Gann charts and analysis. I understand the charts can appear "very busy" and one is left to say, well there are so many lines, which one should I trade? But to me, it makes perfect sense. Godim, please correct me if I am wrong, but this is how I see the market and your charts. It is essentially an if-then analysis. That is, if certain key levels show to be support or resistance, then they open up future price targets. You could trade them this way on larger time frames....
Hi, Mr. Scott,
I'm glad. I know that there are such people in this thread.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
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