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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #701
  • Edited 9:12pm Aug 21, 2013 8:07pm | Edited 9:12pm
Thanks Ghous.

In the meantime these are what I am looking at.
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  • #702
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:50pm Aug 21, 2013 8:50pm
Here is a story, I like the look of.
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  • #703
  • Edited 9:00pm Aug 22, 2013 9:57am | Edited 9:00pm
I understand Ghous'es frustration.

Edit: Update on the levels of the pairs I am watching.

It is indeed frustrating and with major news out today on USD, I am going to pass on the USD/SGD possibility.
Not really viable with this minor penetration with no other confluence going on, apart from the PPZ.

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  • #704
  • Aug 22, 2013 9:07pm Aug 22, 2013 9:07pm
Quoting Pinbar
Here is a story, I like the look of. {image} {image}
Failed to trigger by 0.0125 pips....Aghhhhhh
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  • #705
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:24am Aug 23, 2013 1:24am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Ghous, when you have time, could you possibly explain a little about the next bar filling the fake out wick &, show us an ideal example of the signature of a good setup. I am a bit confused about this wick filling concept. For example, are you talking about the next bar filling the upper part of the wick or the lower part. Thanks in advance
Hey Steve,

It could be either side of the wick on the bar. Depends on the story right?

You have a big bullish pin bar at a historical region of support you won't be too inclined to believe that the wick on the bullish pin bar should get filled in (as in price should make its way down and fail the bullish pin bar). Like wise Price breaking out of an HHR level and the closing weakly but still above the HHR is a good sign that the next bar might continue using the HHR level as support and for a starter ooze through the space created by the wick to the upside.

The wick in essence just represents opposing order flow coming in. Depending on the story this could indicate a reversal or weak order flow/profit taking which only benefits the trend as price now has a smoother path to move into (all the buy and sell orders have been consumed in the region of the wick).

Hope this helps.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #706
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:25am Aug 23, 2013 1:25am
Quoting Pinbar
I understand Ghous'es frustration. Edit: Update on the levels of the pairs I am watching. It is indeed frustrating and with major news out today on USD, I am going to pass on the USD/SGD possibility. Not really viable with this minor penetration with no other confluence going on, apart from the PPZ. {image} {image}
yeah well,

This has been a dodgy period of trading for sure, just another stage in the game

and good idea to pass on the USD/SGD. This was making me flinch.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #707
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:39am Aug 23, 2013 1:39am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, It could be either side of the wick on the bar. Depends on the story right? You have a big bullish pin bar at a historical region of support you won't be too inclined to believe that the wick on the bullish pin bar should get filled in (as in price should make its way down and fail the bullish pin bar). Like wise Price breaking out of an HHR level and the closing weakly but still above the HHR is a good sign that the next bar might continue using the HHR level as support and for a starter ooze through the space created by the...
I am also planning on setting up a new thread exclusively for my fake out method. I plan on discussing these issues in good bit of detail there.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #708
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:43am Aug 23, 2013 1:43am
Quoting ghous
{quote} yeah well, This has been a dodgy period of trading for sure, just another stage in the game and good idea to pass on the USD/SGD. This was making me flinch. {image} g.
Yeah, well I am learning to sit on my hands by this period being so dodgy.

All comes to he who waits, as they say.
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  • #709
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:34am Aug 23, 2013 2:34am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I am also planning on setting up a new thread exclusively for my fake out method. I plan on discussing these issues in good bit of detail there. g.

Good Job, I am in for sure.
  • #710
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:38am Aug 23, 2013 2:38am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, It could be either side of the wick on the bar. Depends on the story right? You have a big bullish pin bar at a historical region of support you won't be too inclined to believe that the wick on the bullish pin bar should get filled in (as in price should make its way down and fail the bullish pin bar). Like wise Price breaking out of an HHR level and the closing weakly but still above the HHR is a good sign that the next bar might continue using the HHR level as support and for a starter ooze through the space created by the...
Kind of hard to grasp this without any graphical explanation.
  • #711
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:48am Aug 23, 2013 2:48am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I am also planning on setting up a new thread exclusively for my fake out method. I plan on discussing these issues in good bit of detail there. g.
Would be awesome Looking forward to it! Have a nice day/weekend guys
It's all psychology...
  • #712
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:04am Aug 23, 2013 7:04am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Kind of hard to grasp this without any graphical explanation.
Here you go:

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Let me know if you have more questions

g.
I believe . . .
  • #713
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:08am Aug 23, 2013 7:08am
Here was a 2 bar fake out on USD ZAR with close below BRN.
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  • #714
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:41am Aug 23, 2013 7:41am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Here you go: {image} {image} Let me know if you have more questions g.
Thanks Ghous

Your example explains the wick getting filled in a failed setup well.
How do we use the wick to get confirmation the SFP will work.
By, the wick of the SFP bar, not getting attacked, and price failing to close within the wick?
  • #715
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:38am Aug 23, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks Ghous Your example explains the wick getting filled in a failed setup well. How do we use the wick to get confirmation the SFP will work. By, the wick of the SFP bar, not getting attacked, and price failing to close within the wick?
Its not so much about the existence of the wick itself as much as it has to do with where is the wick at. The other aspects of the story come in here. Round numbers in the vicinity, the depth and significance of the swing point, space back into the swing point, etc.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #716
  • Aug 24, 2013 6:40am Aug 24, 2013 6:40am
Hmmmm

Now, I am really confused.
If it is not about the wick itself, why are we discussing the wick getting filled or not getting filled?
Are we just talking about levels such as a PPZ, RN etc as in PA?
  • #717
  • Aug 24, 2013 7:27am Aug 24, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Pinbar
Hmmmm Now, I am really confused. If it is not about the wick itself, why are we discussing the wick getting filled or not getting filled? Are we just talking about levels such as a PPZ, RN etc as in PA?
Because the wick contains the order flow that has either cleared the space for price to move through it, or triggered a true reversal.

What I am saying is you can't determine whether the wick is likely to get filled or hold true by looking at the wick alone. The story around the wick is what elaborates on what you should be expecting price to do.

As I mentioned before, wicks when held up can reverse long terms trends around (such as via a big pin bar) but when they fail to hold up they can create a vacuum for price to just move through and continue with the trend more strongly. Which of the scenarios is more likely is a guesstimate you can make by looking at the other factors at play.

In the EUR/GBP charts I showed previously, the first bearish pin bar was right off major resistance and the wick that got created there was indicating more towards a true sell off. However on that second example on the same chart where I showed a bullish pin bar, it was headed into a major round number and I said that if price didn't shoot up straightaway its very likely to just drop into the wick as that would be the path of least resistance.

When I refer to a wick being filled I am merely just pointing to a market phenomena not a trigger to any trades or anything in that context.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #718
  • Aug 24, 2013 9:14pm Aug 24, 2013 9:14pm
Agh, Now I get it.

For some reason, I could not get my mind around that second chart and the wick.

So in a nutshell, we are looking for the momentum around the upper part of the wick to not only hold but, orders to get triggered around that area before a bullish SFP bar has the wick tested in the lower section of it.

This mechanism appears to be the reverse of the IPB.

Thanks Ghous, it is making sense.
  • #719
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:55am Aug 25, 2013 2:55am
Quoting Pinbar
Agh, Now I get it. For some reason, I could not get my mind around that second chart and the wick. So in a nutshell, we are looking for the momentum around the upper part of the wick to not only hold but, orders to get triggered around that area before a bullish SFP bar has the wick tested in the lower section of it. This mechanism appears to be the reverse of the IPB. Thanks Ghous, it is making sense.
I read that at least 5 times and couldn't make out what you're saying. Could you rephrase this?

g.
I believe . . .
  • #720
  • Aug 25, 2013 3:41am Aug 25, 2013 3:41am
Sorry
Yeah, it is a bit confusing.

Ok, I mean, after the Swing Failure, ideally are we looking for price to not enter the wick of the previous bar at all but, aggressively move towards the high of the failure bar?

Obviously a close below the SP is going to take us out, is it not? As a close below is going to enter the wick of the SP failure bar.
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