Mario's path journal | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Another Trading Journal - Yuhu's Journal 17 replies

Twitch Journal - Live Journal 4 replies

Is Super Mario the guy to start the printing machine? 0 replies

My Personal journal up 18% in 2 months going to start a journal 8 replies

Attachments: Mario's path journal
Exit Attachments

Mario's path journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 18, 2011 5:07pm Sep 18, 2011 5:07pm
Finally i've decided to create my own journal to keep track of my trades and entry resons to learn from mistakes, as i made another one that i promised not to make anymore.

I've started with investment funds which didnt make much money for me and i moved to stocks as it was "volatile" in my opinions back in the day. Heared a lot of stories about milionaires who made it on stocks. However after some time friend of mine said... dude, if you like risk and big money come and see forex. After quick briefing i was still not decided as i knew it was very risky and huge volatility might kill me. Next day i decided i want to try it out. First attempt was epic fail as i lost around 1000$ but... it gave ma w huge kick to get it back from market. I started to learn a lot, read, created a demo account etc. with several success and lack of time i gave a up a little and came back on may. Opened new ECN account and started new demo again with knowledge, some trading plan etc. Finally after nice success i decided to move to live account i had. In one week i made 84% of my account trading during break at work. When i came back to work in took me 3 weeks to loose everything i earned. Now im b/e after friday's loss. No more losses! No more mistakes!

Since today i will post all my trades and all reasons i made every particular entry.

Just looking on the chart, we have hammer on SR i would entry long but... 100pips gap and huge spread (almost 4pips on ECN!) doesnt allow me to entry. Wow, easy 30pips! It just bounced liked a hell while i was writing this. Anyway.. i will wait for gap closing or bounce and thenshort that thing.

My strategy so far is:
candle patterns on S/R levels. Not much fibonacci as it oftens fail unless fibo levels are the same as SR levels. Trendlines are nice but... not as strong and more reliable as SR levels in my opinion. I also start to love PA movements and formations. HH,HL,LH,LL. I use hedge when market goes against me and hardly ever use SL unless im not able to babysit my trade... when i use SL its huge... then the loss is huge as well unless hedging (counter position).

Im going through TAF thread and AOW and loving it so much. I need to study more PA TA and that would be it. I dont understand indicators and i dont use them. I was just reassured that is proper thinking during TAF lecture. How can i make decision on historical data? Indicators have huge lag and in the mean time PA can change as i was observing indicators on historic data.

That's it for the begining. Next post will be trades and my thoughts only.

cheers
  • #2
  • Sep 18, 2011 5:22pm Sep 18, 2011 5:22pm
OK, as promised i will start with my friday's loss description. I prepared two charts m5 and m15. i saw nice hammer on m5 then on m15 and i decided to go long on early morning. I didnt look muchon the chart as i just woke up and i still had the last day info that ECB with FED are providing USD liquidity for all EU banks if neccesary. After that info there was nice spike up on E/U and having that in mind i thought we will have another up rally as we broke uptrend channel from upside. Well... it was terrible decision. If you look on the chart from PA perspective there was no bullish sign or whatsoever. Im idiot and i took siginificant loss. I didnt look on my trade as i had to go to work. No SL as usually i only set TP and thought i would hedge while ill be on my way to work. Well... when i opened my mobile platform it was already to late. -40pips I didnt put hedge as i still had mindset of great news for EU.. blindly i still had a hope. When we hit lower SR level at 3790 it was obvious that we should get nice bounce but it didnt happen. I waited for bull candle and i got it.. after m15 hammer i entered 2 long positions where one Tp was 3848 and second was 3875. Well it didnt work out. i missed first TP only by 2pips and second was never reached. As i couldnt babysit my trades when i opened my mobile platform E/U was around 3780... well it was time to take loss and admit it wasnt my day. My rescure didnt work out because i didnt look carefully for TP level.

Lessons learnt:
- never enter trade when you're not on SR level
- yesterdays info is yesterdays info
- candles are not everything.. it worked only for 6pips on that trade
- always, always look carefully where you put TP level, its better to take off 2-3pips and book profit neither take loss because you missed TP for 2-3pips. greed is good but it has to ends
-if you entered on higher TF look on smaller what's going on. There is obvious bearish engulfing on m5 chart why didnt you pay attention fool!
- start to dance with PA not against it, if it changes the move you should change your steps as well.


Overall, i made beginners mistake. Never ever make such mistakes again, promise?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2ndfailM15.jpg Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2ndfailM5.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #3
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:22pm Sep 18, 2011 6:22pm
Hi Mario, check out Rocky's thread, it will save you much pain and cash

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=309766

Pete
  • #4
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:31am Sep 19, 2011 7:31am
thanks Pedros, i will take a look at this thread. Look like pure PA with SR levels, something i like.

Thanks!
  • #5
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:58am Aug 10, 2013 9:58am
Hi Mario
I see you started Journal but didnt keep up
I think it is very powerful tool to keep a journal
You can see back things you can analize yourself from hindsight
This in my opinion can make you to progress if you keep up.
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #6
  • Aug 15, 2013 9:57am Aug 15, 2013 9:57am
Thank you Michael


Here's my MYFXBOOK that i study regulary but you are right i need to go back to my journal.


http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mari...mezyski/151631
  • #7
  • Aug 15, 2013 10:16am Aug 15, 2013 10:16am
Quoting mario83
Thank you Michael Here's my MYFXBOOK that i study regulary but you are right i need to go back to my journal. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mari...mezyski/151631

Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #8
  • Aug 18, 2013 8:05am Aug 18, 2013 8:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 110 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 110 KB
Today i made another mistake from yesterdays mistake. My impatient fingers clicked sell after eurusd spike without any funde news. Spike from nowhere cleared some stops after good US data few hours before.

Sell 0.1lot @ 1.3335 like I didn't make such mistake week before... Stupid!!! So of course price didn't fall it went up and consolidate around 3345 so I sold again thinking it was top now on m5. No it wasn't. Hour later it occurred that top wa 336X... Amazing... That was real S/R level - how unusual for price to go to touch SR level isn't it? So I had already 2 positions under water and as I learnt last time rescue mission need to have room as I wasn't sure about that level- but price didn't move anywhere. I might have opened next sell position but it would be against my leverage rule 1:10.

So I set buy order @ 1.3370 to hedge at night. This morning (I'm CEST time zone) it occurs price moved nowhere. Yep I see this H&S pattern on H4 but is it really that strong? Why it doesn't move price down? Lets wait, I moved both orders to close 1.3338 and go away for this week, as I made some profit already. Hour later price dropped as I intended originally. 3338 was hit, so 3328 was hit as well (in the time of writing). I know it from somewhere... Hmmm yep! Same thing happened last week - not the best entry, good direction, impatience didn't allow to profit.

Lessons learnt:
- don't H&S pattern on H4
- don't sell to early
- leave room for SR level - it will be touched
- PATIENCE will bring profits - trust yourself




1. Entry as i thought bearish engulfing
2. After it didn't work I looked h4 constantly and I saw this h4 H&S pattern
3. M15 how it went further... I was out with no loss b/e but If I trusted into H&S could have finished with profit
  • #9
  • Aug 18, 2013 8:06am Aug 18, 2013 8:06am
H n S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #10
  • Aug 18, 2013 8:06am Aug 18, 2013 8:06am
3. How it went further
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 170 KB
  • #11
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:22am Aug 20, 2013 6:22am
ANother day another lessons learnt. I might be out today, as i did daily target, but not as planned.

Day as usuall I shorted euro as usuall Today a lot of lost opportunities.

1. I was looking yesterday evening on chart and i saw this triangle pattern but i was to sceptic and didnt enter long - as we can see that was mistake - i need to learn how to enter LONG positions. (marked on chart M15)

2. I opened short euro ar 1.3385 0.1 lot (@ mobile as usual) and then i switch to MT4 and opened @ 1.3395 but i didnt look what i was doing and i opened 1 lot! So hopefully was able to close quickly +2pips lol
3. I re-enter short 1.3395 (marked on chart) then it went up but i was strongly believing in SR levels. 1.34 is strong and it was double top on H4. It was going nowhere 5+ / 5- but i was holding it and set TP for +10pips but then i thought 10pips is to less for such big move and i wanted to take 1.3380 so instead of MODIFY i clicked CLOSE . I'm so not used to MT4 as i trade from MOBILE all the time. I just need to pay more more attention what i do on MT4


Lessons learnt:
- trust your intuition again you were RIGHT, just place your small scout there and wait. You still have hedge, rescue to go out from bad trade if it occurs so
- pay BIG ATTENTION what you click on MT4, its so different from mobile
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_tue.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUmissed.jpg Size: 151 KB
  • #12
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:39am Aug 20, 2013 11:39am
Hey i see you keeping up !!!
You know something that made me look from a different perspective
is this book "
Beat the Forex Dealer: An insider's look into trading today's foreign exchange market (Wiley Trading)
"
i am sure it can be find in PDF format
To understand about stop hunt.
And Trading Hours when the market more liquid.

Here is FTI post about resistance and suport level maybe it can help too - link
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #13
  • Edited 12:01pm Aug 20, 2013 11:50am | Edited 12:01pm
Thank you Michael - much appreciated!!!

Ok,, something to remember :
p
Quote
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)] . [/highlight][highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Resistance and support levels are never absolute.It changes as time progresses. [/highlight]
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Your trade positions must change as the chart progresses and a continued analytics be done.
DO NOT try to read it once and have a set mind of the possibilities of what to expect.
The analysis is an on going process and every new bar added will cause new developments.
Never read the patterns that form on the chart, rather recognise it when it forms,
and follow it with a trade position.
Chart patterns can mutate as time advances
and a fixed perspective to the pattern that has formed is dangerous
as it palalyses your ability to change when the dance changes.
Althought it is foundational that you should be able to read the pattern formations,
you should not draw those lines on to your chart.
They can form optical illusions to your mind and
[/highlight]
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]impair your ability of new developments that is coming onstream in the charts.[/highlight]

FTI I'm so amazed again with your knowledge and experience !!
  • #14
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:19pm Aug 21, 2013 2:19pm
i promised to not touch but i broke my word I touched it and shorted EURUSD during FOMC. Firstly i fought inside myself play / not play and i missed opportunity which was good one - 40pips in a minute, but i re-enter at the almost bottom hoping for further downmove. Stupid it was i re-entered 3350 and then got a chance at 70 but due to slippage it was open at 67. Closed all three @ 1.3349 as i move TP from 1.3340 as PA was slow and nothing showed it will move down.

Pure luck.

Lessons:
- don't catch falling knives (lucky this time)
- if you don't know if you should trade close trading platform. Make your mind first, decide direction and then "push the button"
  • #15
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:25pm Aug 21, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting mario83
i promised to not touch but i broke my word I touched it and shorted EURUSD during FOMC. Firstly i fought inside myself play / not play and i missed opportunity which was good one - 40pips in a minute, but i re-enter at the almost bottom hoping for further downmove. Stupid it was i re-entered 3350 and then got a chance at 70 but due to slippage it was open at 67. Closed all three @ 1.3349 as i move TP from 1.3340 as PA was slow and nothing showed it will move down. Pure luck. Lessons: - don't catch falling knives (lucky this time)...
Something That i learned from figures never jump in.
Always wait at least 15 minutes to see how it unravels and then make your educated guess
Never think what you could have do , think in terms of what you could have lost - in terms of capital.
Preservation of capital is rule number 1 .
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #16
  • Aug 22, 2013 3:56pm Aug 22, 2013 3:56pm
Hi Michael, it seems i keep doing same stupid things i used to do when i started back in 2010/2011. Too bad i just read your post now

ok, so my monthly target was done, but i had not enough and today i almost lost 1/3 of it. Stupid me stupid me!

So, lets go... EU was boring, i was waiting for the news but i was too afraid to enter. So data came in and data was bad for US so it was obvious this time EU should go up. As FOMC pointed that jobless claims are most important now and it was missed report 336K vs 330 expected EU went up for + 60-70pips. I was at the very bottom fighting against myself @ 3307 then 3315 then 3325 but could not hit BUY. I just need to learn using BUY button !!! Missed opportunity, never mind.

I was still PIPS hungry so i went to EJ. I saw on other thread 10V+ guy selling it so i jumped in without much analysis. What happened? Yeah, you already know! Stupid me... stupid me.. so i caught again falling knife at 131.48 and then added for quick scalp @ 131.55 and i almost was out with profit but i missed while browsing internet stupid me didnt put TP becasue i thought it will go down. Based on m15... and 1h chart hammer on top. THat was stupid. H1, H4, D1 trend is up! So i entered again 131.65 way too early but PA was not moving so i thought it will be fine. No it wasnt. My prays to God went one afar another so did proper analysis and yes... return point could be 131.90 but better would be 132.15.. so i was struggling if open hedge @ 131.8X to 132.15 or not... as price was jumping but hopefully it went down. So i did calculation, set all three positions to close at 131.60 so i could got out with small loss, not even thinking about BE. Well... i was lucky again and able to close manually at 131.61 but price went as low as 131.55 so i could even got out with small profit. But hey, im happy to loose just 12pips.

Then... i saw its going back with trend but i was already to stressed after that trade. It stopped me from BUY (again) but it was proper assumption. hammer on m15, proper PA HH,HL... so next must be HH it was indeed + 30pips could have been collected

Here goes the chart.
Attached Image



So... lessons lernt

- never never never trade someone's trades. Do your own homework if it is the same then go for it. He lost 30, you lost 12... you lucky cause you know FTI methods
- if its too late, it's already to late - Michael said - defend your capital - it's REAL not demo. Wait for another opportunity
- PATIENCE... why didn't you wait till 132 ?? It would be much better entry even 131.90 would be perfect top.


I'm not sure if i trade tomorrow... if I find PERFECT spot then yes. I want my 12pips back
  • #17
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:02pm Aug 22, 2013 4:02pm
Something i dont wanna loose that PiPtrapper said:

Quote
The Yen is inversely correlated with the Nikkei.
If the Nikkei goes up, the Yen loses
Nikkei goes down, Yen gains

So, since all the equity indexes in the world usually go up and down together (most of the time), if the Fed tapers and the stock markets go down, then the Yen will gain. In other words E/J will fall. U/J will fall as well but at a much slower rate because the USD will also gain. It might ebven be that the USD/JPY goes up while the EUR/JPY goes down.
However, if the Fed does not taper, or worse yet, they increase the QE monthly amounts to 90 billion or higher, then that EUR/JPY is going to fly so high that we will all have nose bleeds
Currently, it looks like the Fed will taper in September, so the chances of more EUR/JPY gains are fairly limited.
  • #18
  • Last Post: Aug 23, 2013 5:32am Aug 23, 2013 5:32am
Quoting mario83
Hi Michael, it seems i keep doing same stupid things i used to do when i started back in 2010/2011. Too bad i just read your post now ok, so my monthly target was done, but i had not enough and today i almost lost 1/3 of it. Stupid me stupid me! So, lets go... EU was boring, i was waiting for the news but i was too afraid to enter. So data came in and data was bad for US so it was obvious this time EU should go up. As FOMC pointed that jobless claims are most important now and it was missed report 336K vs 330 expected EU went up...
Something That might Help you is
write your rules on paper (if you have new rules add them)
And reread it every morning .
When you enter a trade just go threw your rules and make sure that you are not breaking them
After you checked that no rule broken try to fight.
All this process wont take more than minute
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
0 traders viewing now