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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #5,401
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:51pm Aug 21, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} I think The Netherlands is on the precipice, both financially & politically. A property bubble has burst, they've had to nationalise a bank (will it be the only one?) & austerity is in. All this has happened here in Ireland too; austerity leads to less spending (savers even hold onto money out of fear) & the economy contracts further. Here's something recent enough which gives you an idea of the problem: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...97F07F20130816. Growth not expected until 2015/16. Edit: Just...
All the more reason for Germany and the BeNeLux countries to leave the Euro and go back to their legacy currencies (or all of them adopt the Deutsche Mark). This will allow Southern Europe (including France and Ireland) to devalue the Euro and regain competitiveness. Then, and only then, will the EU and what's left of the EZ project actually have a good chance. The only other alternative is federalism and you and I know very well how much chance that has.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,402
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:53pm Aug 21, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Sorry my friend. To me, I had it and target on 85. Now it is in neutral or no trade zone. But monthly looks awful. I love this thread and all great people here but been awful busy. I do try to post anything useful I find when I have the time. {quote} {quote} Won't touch it until I see better set up.
@godim:

agree, I shorted from top.
now just watching...

EUR should pick it up tomorrow, (positive GER flash manuf. expected)
but I don't bet anymore. (not without confirmation)

EUR/GBP D1 chart ofc
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  • #5,403
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:57pm Aug 21, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you really believe, that Germany can not only safe the PIIGS
Thank you for saving the Irish PIIGS. We owe you; maybe we will let you win the football match in Cologne in October.
  • #5,404
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:59pm Aug 21, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} All the more reason for Germany and the BeNeLux countries to leave the Euro and go back to their legacy currencies (or all of them adopt the Deutsche Mark). This will allow Southern Europe (including France and Ireland) to devalue the Euro and regain competitiveness. Then, and only then, will the EU and what's left of the EZ project actually have a good chance. The only other alternative is federalism and you and I know very well how much chance that has.
no bank account can carry that devaluation,
%70 of EU countries are going to have long term foreign investment problems,
also no hot money entry.

that is just chaos theory, not possible imho
  • #5,405
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:01pm Aug 21, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Thank you for saving the Irish PIIGS. We owe you; maybe we will let you win the football match in Cologne in October.
It wasn't the Germans that saved the Irish. It was the Irish taxpayer... with Germany's permission instead of the Irish taxpayer's permission. LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,406
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:05pm Aug 21, 2013 3:05pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...llows-–-see-em


When “QE Infinity” Turns Into A Pipedream: Hot Money Evaporates, Rout Follows – See Emerging Markets
  • #5,407
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:08pm Aug 21, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting infinitus
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...llows-–-see-em When “QE Infinity” Turns Into A Pipedream: Hot Money Evaporates, Rout Follows – See Emerging Markets
anyone thinking of
GBP/ZAR short?
  • #5,408
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm
the post FOMC spike down may only be the B-wave of the wave 4 ABC-flat

then we would now be in wave 5 down
  • #5,409
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Mario, that are many fundamental questions to answer :-) a) Germany: I am German - right now live is good, many jobs - but many jobs are not so good paid for as in former days. Germanys economy is very strong right now relative to other countries in Eurozone. But the money earned does not really get to the workers......... But there is a really great BUT: Germany has gotten poorer relative to their neighbors in the Eurozone over the last decade Many problems in countries like Greek are partly due to the fact, that people do not pay their...
Wow, learned a lot in this one post. Thanks
  • #5,410
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm Aug 21, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting infinitus
the post FOMC spike down may only be the B-wave of the wave 4 ABC-flat then we would now be in wave 5 down

may produce a double bottom
  • #5,411
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:16pm Aug 21, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} no bank account can carry that devaluation, %70 of EU countries are going to have long term foreign investment problems, also no hot money entry. that is just chaos theory, not possible imho
I disagree with your statement about chaos theory.
If the southern EZ states do not have a lower valued Euro, then they will definitely have far bigger problems than a lack of foreign investment... and that problem is called deflation or stagflation... similar to what Japan has been experiencing for the last 20 years. The difference is that Southern Europeans are not rich enough to fund their governments so they won't survive like Japan did. The ECB will have no choice but to activate the OMT and then the Euro will devalue anyway and cause much dreaded inflation in Germany.

So, you see? Germany must leave. It's the only way for them to grow without causing localized inflation. This is the monetary fragmentation and lack of monetary policy transmission that Draghi has been talking about since he took the top job at the ECB. His solution to all this is more austerity in the profligate states with the OMT serving as a backstop as long as they stick to their austerity plans... which means they won't need the OMT anyway. It is only a carrot for the money markets and a ruse to make believe that the EZ is strong enough to justify investment, when in fact it is at worst a disaster waiting to happen, and at best a disabled economy that is going to take 10+ years to recover from the crisis. Either way, wealth will be lost and Europe will no longer be able to boast the status of the world's 3rd largest economy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,412
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:21pm Aug 21, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It wasn't the Germans that saved the Irish. It was the Irish taxpayer... with Germany's permission instead of the Irish taxpayer's permission. LOL
Ah yes, but for now we're still happy Europeans thanks to the guiding hand of our wealthy European brethren. We will pay in the long run, as will our children, our children's children, our chil........... you know the story.

I agree on the breakup of the Euro. If France gets in trouble, & I believe it will, then Germany can't bail them out. It may not work on a banking level but if the people of Germany decide enough is enough then the powers that be will have to sit down & work it out. It's certainly a long-play but I still can't see the Euro surviving the decade.
  • #5,413
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:25pm Aug 21, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Ah yes, but for now we're still happy Europeans thanks to the guiding hand of our wealthy European brethren. We will pay in the long run, as will our children, our children's children, our chil........... you know the story. I agree on the breakup of the Euro. If France gets in trouble, & I believe it will, then Germany can't bail them out. It may not work on a banking level but if the people of Germany decide enough is enough then the powers that be will have to sit down & work it out. It's certainly a long-play but I still can't see the...
I don't believe the Euro will die. If it does, it will be replaced with a "Southern Euro" because I cannot for the life of me picture any scenario where Greece would go back to the Drachma, or heaven forbid Italy goes back to the Lira... or even worse than that, Spain goes back to that pesetas (or whatever it was called). That would probably be more of a pipe dream than federalization of all 27 EU member states.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,414
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:29pm Aug 21, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting infinitus
the post FOMC spike down may only be the B-wave of the wave 4 ABC-flat then we would now be in wave 5 down

i do not understand...what time frame?
  • #5,415
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:34pm Aug 21, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting Afarensis
{quote} i do not understand...what time frame?
I believe he is referring to M5/15
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,416
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:36pm Aug 21, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} may produce a double bottom
you mean wave 3 & 5 double bottom at 3335?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,417
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:39pm Aug 21, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting Afarensis
{quote} i do not understand...what time frame?

15min tf
  • #5,418
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:52pm Aug 21, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't believe the Euro will die. If it does, it will be replaced with a "Southern Euro" because I cannot for the life of me picture any scenario where Greece would go back to the Drachma, or heaven forbid Italy goes back to the Lira... or even worse than that, Spain goes back to that pesetas (or whatever it was called). That would probably be more of a pipe dream than federalization of all 27 EU member states.
I have heard the Northern/ Southern Euro idea touted here at times & it seems like an alternative that will have to be discussed by the powers-that-be eventually. What I mean though is that the Euro project will fall apart. The countries involved are economically & culturally just too different. I can never see Italy or Greece running their public finances like Germany, it's just not their way (this is just my opinion, not trying to be racist here, we're just as bad here in Ireland). That said, don't fully discount the crazy idea of the old currencies returning because if things continue to worsen on the fringes of Europe & those on the extremes of politics take power (such as The Freedom Party in The Netherlands) then who knows what could be on the cards. We never thought it possible the the UK would even consider leaving the EU but it looks like the public may well get to vote on that before 2017. It's all politics. One way or the other, bearish Euro!
  • #5,419
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:53pm Aug 21, 2013 3:53pm
Good Morning..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #5,420
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:59pm Aug 21, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} 15min tf
Starting the wave C......what do you think?
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