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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #681
  • Aug 19, 2013 1:48pm Aug 19, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting ghous
Here is one that I was also watching very seriously. Despite the bearish Pin bar, I thought we were in for a retrace. And we were. As has been the theme for the last two weeks for me, yet another miss. lol. 3 pips this time. Its not over yet, but I can't afford it to hang around for very long because its a Friday anyway. {image} g.
Hi Ghous,

After Fridays bar would you have re looked at this?

Today we have an interesting bar too, almost making the same high before selling off.

Do you have a time frame for entry i.e the next bar / TF ?

Thanks
  • #682
  • Aug 19, 2013 8:34pm Aug 19, 2013 8:34pm
Well, I was right and I was wrong, which is ok as, I am still working on this.

The EUR/NZD 3 pip penetration that had me concerned, worked out and price hit the FTA.
Interesting to note that, the next bar penetrated the level more deeply but, closed bullish and too far away from the level to make the trade viable.

GBP/CAD behaved as I suspected and indeed as John mentioned, currently it has broken out of the level.

NZD/USD was interesting also. I was concerned about the close of the bar between the 365 and 150 EMAs.
Price then, rallied to the higher level which I mentioned looked a much better level from the perspective of the entry and exit from the level being more vigorous.
However, once again price pierced the level and closed right above the FTA and the 0.8500 RN.
Right now, there is little room for an entry and we have the VBRN of 0.8000 right above the STA.

Ghous.. What do you think about the decisions I made with these setups.
Don't hold any punches and hit me with it straight, please.
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  • #683
  • Aug 19, 2013 8:54pm Aug 19, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting Chelski
{quote} Hi Ghous, After Fridays bar would you have re looked at this? Today we have an interesting bar too, almost making the same high before selling off. Do you have a time frame for entry i.e the next bar / TF ? Thanks
Ghous explains his entries on page 14.
  • #684
  • Aug 20, 2013 2:59am Aug 20, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Ghous explains his entries on page 14.

I should have elaborated more, I meant in relation to this particular set up, it looks like it stayed valid and Fridays bar gave a good entry.

Even with Monday pushing higher we would have been safe where our stop was located above fakeout bar.
  • #685
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:09am Aug 20, 2013 3:09am
Quoting Chelski
{quote} Hi Ghous, After Fridays bar would you have re looked at this? Today we have an interesting bar too, almost making the same high before selling off. Do you have a time frame for entry i.e the next bar / TF ? Thanks
Friday's bar not being able to push beyond the 7500 round number with any authority and a Monday open underneath the 7500 actually made me pull the trigger on this one. For some odd reason I decided to tuck the stop loss under the fake out high and not beyond it like I normally do. In hindsight when I evaluate the decision I guess it was because I was hoping for the 7500 to hold straight away and drop in which case I would have further pulled the stop loss down and eliminated the bulk of the risk on the trade. Simply put I was asking a bit too much from this setup. It decided to fill a good bit of the fake out wick, took out my Stop loss and hen dropped exactly as I had hoped.

But its great to see these stand out setups performing really well.

Congrats to anybody out there who went for this.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #686
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:32am Aug 20, 2013 3:32am
Anyone take this?

It was on my watch list last week, the weekly level has a nice confluence on the daily where price is stalling, its corny but "flat tops equal drops"

On the daily you can also see 365 MA at the level we are stalling too, I sold off yesterdays close.
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  • #687
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:38am Aug 20, 2013 3:38am
Quoting Pinbar
Well, I was right and I was wrong, which is ok as, I am still working on this. The EUR/NZD 3 pip penetration that had me concerned, worked out and price hit the FTA. Interesting to note that, the next bar penetrated the level more deeply but, closed bullish and too far away from the level to make the trade viable. GBP/CAD behaved as I suspected and indeed as John mentioned, currently it has broken out of the level. NZD/USD was interesting also. I was concerned about the close of the bar between the 365 and 150 EMAs. Price then, rallied to the higher...
Don't have anything to disagree with

g.
I believe . . .
  • #688
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:41am Aug 20, 2013 3:41am
I checked...and double checked...and triple checked but no, my live broker doesn't offer this. It hurt even more because I saw the setup first on my fxpro demo and then excitedly logged on to my live platform. This trading month has been teeeezzziiinggg! lol

What an absolute beauty!

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #689
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:51am Aug 20, 2013 3:51am
Quoting ghous
I checked...and double checked...and triple checked but no, my live broker doesn't offer this. It hurt even more because I saw the setup first on my fxpro demo and then excitedly logged on to my live platform. This trading month has been teeeezzziiinggg! lol What an absolute beauty! {image} g.
Yeah, that is a nice one.
Just one thing, I would like to clarify Ghous, if I may.

While the swing Out of the above chart SP is great, the swing in seems to be rather minor.
Is there a minimum swing size for both the SI & SO or, do you not bother with this?


I want you to disagree....So I can learn the small details, I need to.
  • #690
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:35am Aug 20, 2013 8:35am
My expectations are high.
However, what I would like to see and what I actually will see, may not be the same thing.
This is where the cookie crumbles.
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  • #691
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:57am Aug 20, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Pinbar
My expectations are high. However, what I would like to see and what I actually will see, may not be the same thing. This is where the cookie crumbles. {image}
So far good. This nice momentum creates space. If it would break the line and close above... I would definitely expect some major shoot to the north, like a 2day Pinbar...
Thanks, Pinbar! You rock!
It's all psychology...
  • #692
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:06am Aug 20, 2013 9:06am
This SFP from CAD CHF 4hr failed. Do you wait for confirmation (more 1hr or 4hr bars) before taking an intraday trade (I didn't take this trade because I read a Ghous post in where he said it's good to wait for more intraday bars)?
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  • #693
  • Edited 11:33am Aug 20, 2013 11:21am | Edited 11:33am
It does not get more accurate than this!! Of course, there is a typo on the chart Both prices marked are the same - to the pip
What a beautiful trade.

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #694
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:02pm Aug 20, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Yeah, that is a nice one. Just one thing, I would like to clarify Ghous, if I may. While the swing Out of the above chart SP is great, the swing in seems to be rather minor. Is there a minimum swing size for both the SI & SO or, do you not bother with this? I want you to disagree....So I can learn the small details, I need to.
Hey Steve,

The depth of the swing point, the fake out bar length/shape, round numbers in the vicinity, MAs, traffic areas - all are only parts to the overall story around a trade setup. Yes, the swing point and the fake out bar together make the trigger for my method but its important to understand that they are still just elements to the bigger story. And the bigger story, hands down, is always the real reason to enter.

You are right that that wasn't the deepest of swing points, but look at the clarity of your trouble areas. Look how price hurried beyond 1.03 BRN and came all the way back to close just about at it. Look at the strong break of the pin bar. Fake outs off RNs, I have mentioned before, can be extremely lucrative because beyond the added cushion and safety padding supplied by the round number you can sneak in a tighter stop. Essentially the ongoing story then revolves around the round number that you have in the area and that can be used to boost returns as well as manage risk well.

Anyways, the point being that we have an HHR, a lovely shape on the fake out bar, 1.03 to play around with and clear target areas to make for a no brainer trade.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #695
  • Edited 12:42pm Aug 20, 2013 12:04pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting str8
This SFP from CAD CHF 4hr failed. Do you wait for confirmation (more 1hr or 4hr bars) before taking an intraday trade (I didn't take this trade because I read a Ghous post in where he said it's good to wait for more intraday bars)? {image}
I have been burnt several times just like in that chart you showed. Thats why I came to the conclusion that trading fake outs straight off the fake out bar itself, on lower time frames is surely far more risky and aggressive than waiting for some confirming subsequent action.

I am glad you passed this on.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #696
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:18pm Aug 20, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, The depth of the swing point, the fake out bar length/shape, round numbers in the vicinity, MAs, traffic areas - all are only parts to the overall story around a trade setup. Yes, the swing point and the fake out bar together make the trigger for my method but its important to understand that they are still just elements to the bigger story. And the bigger story, hands down, is always the real reason to enter. You are right that that wasn't the deepest of swing points, but look at the clarity of your trouble areas. Look how price...
I hear you on the bigger story.
Suppose it is like the ingredients of Rasmali, the ingredients themselves do not make this delicous dish, it is how they are combined and how the right balance of them makes the dish. Too many cardamons and it because way to pungent, too much sugar and it is sickly sweet.

Looks like we have a similar thing going on with GBP/SGD but no trigger yet.
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  • #697
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:09am Aug 21, 2013 1:09am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} I hear you on the bigger story. Suppose it is like the ingredients of Rasmali, the ingredients themselves do not make this delicous dish, it is how they are combined and how the right balance of them makes the dish. Too many cardamons and it because way to pungent, too much sugar and it is sickly sweet. Looks like we have a similar thing going on with GBP/SGD but no trigger yet. {image}
I got to sleep the whole night yesterday. Looking at that major trouble area just underneath there was no point even waiting for a trigger.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #698
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:24am Aug 21, 2013 1:24am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I got to sleep the whole night yesterday. Looking at that major trouble area just underneath there was no point even waiting for a trigger. {image} g.

Yeah, that was what concerned me.
Glad to see we are on the same page, still.

Let's see what these three do. Not the GBP/CAD.
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  • #699
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:15am Aug 21, 2013 2:15am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Friday's bar not being able to push beyond the 7500 round number with any authority and a Monday open underneath the 7500 actually made me pull the trigger on this one. For some odd reason I decided to tuck the stop loss under the fake out high and not beyond it like I normally do. In hindsight when I evaluate the decision I guess it was because I was hoping for the 7500 to hold straight away and drop in which case I would have further pulled the stop loss down and eliminated the bulk of the risk on the trade. Simply put I was asking a bit...
Ghous, when you have time, could you possibly explain a little about the next bar filling the fake out wick &, show us an ideal example of the signature of a good setup.
I am a bit confused about this wick filling concept. For example, are you talking about the next bar filling the upper part of the wick or the lower part.

Thanks in advance
  • #700
  • Aug 21, 2013 1:24pm Aug 21, 2013 1:24pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Ghous, when you have time, could you possibly explain a little about the next bar filling the fake out wick &, show us an ideal example of the signature of a good setup. I am a bit confused about this wick filling concept. For example, are you talking about the next bar filling the upper part of the wick or the lower part. Thanks in advance
I'll get back to this shortly...

g.
I believe . . .
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