Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 59 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,161
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:56pm Aug 19, 2013 4:56pm
Alfonso, excellent webinar last night!

You are such a knowledgeable and genuine person. I can tell you want to help people become better traders, and you take the time to make sure everyone understand EVERYTHING.

I hope karma repays you for what you're doing.
  • #1,162
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:57pm Aug 19, 2013 4:57pm
Hello Ted,

Thanks for sharing your levels on USDJPY.

Just one thing, VERY important. You are not taking into account how fresh or original levels are! My recommendation would be this:

  1. What the video on the 1st post on how to draw original and fresh levels again (maybe you haven't watched it). This video is KEY to understanding supply and demand
  2. Delete the previous post and draw the levels again
  3. Post the new analysis on the USDJPY, only after you have understood what that video explains

Most of the levels are reaction to previous levels and you didn't take that into account. Take a look at the H4 chart I have attached. Take that as a sample and redo the others.

It's just my recommendation. It would take me a long time to explain all the levels you drew inappropiately.
Hope you understand!

Alfonso

Quoting impulsewaver
Hi Alfonso I wanted to say thanks for the webinar, Here are some charts i have laid out on the USD/JPY, These are just my levels, I would love some feedback from you. thanks Ted {image} {image} {image} {image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,163
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:59pm Aug 19, 2013 4:59pm
Yes, indeed, excellent webinar, once again thank you Alfonso for the time and effort. It was a pleasure to attend the webinar Happpy Trading to Y'all
  • #1,164
  • Aug 19, 2013 5:48pm Aug 19, 2013 5:48pm
Hi, a question about trendline.
EURGBP H4
please i don't pay attention if price goes down of trendline, i assume that the price was upper than that, i want only understand when change the trendline

first price is at red vertical line so i draw that trendline
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then price making a HH reaches W1 supply and bounces so i draw that second trendline, is this second trendline right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Alessandro
  • #1,165
  • Aug 19, 2013 7:03pm Aug 19, 2013 7:03pm
My Aussie Index trade just closed out at Daily Trend line which coincides with Daily demand level .. It's possible to go down further but I had good reward on this trade so no need to be greedy as there will be plenty more trades

Hourly Chart
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Daily Chart
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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #1,166
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:43pm Aug 19, 2013 10:43pm
Is this kind of trading even worth it?

I'm doing this to make money. Not so I can sit around and do nothing all day.

There's so little entries on the higher TF, even on the 1H.

And every pair I look at, according to these rules, is already "at the end of its curve".
  • #1,167
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:47pm Aug 19, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting Axlz
Is this kind of trading even worth it? I'm doing this to make money. Not so I can sit around and do nothing all day. There's so little entries on the higher TF, even on the 1H. And every pair I look at, according to these rules, is already "at the end of its curve".
You didn't expect a holy grail did you? This is (a very important of) part of understanding price movement, but it's not a system.
  • #1,168
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:48pm Aug 19, 2013 10:48pm
be patient - one of the important rules for trader


Quoting Axlz
Is this kind of trading even worth it? I'm doing this to make money. Not so I can sit around and do nothing all day. There's so little entries on the higher TF, even on the 1H. And every pair I look at, according to these rules, is already "at the end of its curve".
  • #1,169
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:49pm Aug 19, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You didn't expect a holy grail did you? This is part of understanding price movement, but it's not a system.
Obviously not, but like I said, I want to trade and make money, not stare at charts all day, and hope that price has a pullback to a demand/supply zone so I can trade, on an entry that may not even succeed.

On the lower TF, you could have made 50 profitable trades by the time you took 1 unsuccessful trade on the higher TF.
  • #1,170
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:53pm Aug 19, 2013 10:53pm
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Obviously not, but like I said, I want to trade and make money, not stare at charts all day, and hope that price has a pullback to a demand/supply zone so I can trade, on an entry that may not even succeed. On the lower TF, you could have made 50 profitable trades by the time you took 1 unsuccessful trade on the higher TF.
That's what higher time frames are for; you can compensate for less frequent opportunities by observing more pairs. It's what those of us who have to work or study do. What I get from your post though is that you think there are other viable forms of trading analysis out there. Maybe you're right, but I doubt it.
  • #1,171
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:01pm Aug 19, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} That's what higher time frames are for; you can compensate for less frequent opportunities by observing more pairs. It's what those of us who have to work or study do. What I get from your post though is that you think there are other viable forms of trading analysis out there. Maybe you're right, but I doubt it.
You've only got about 5 options, since all pairs are correlated in one way or another.
  • #1,172
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:08pm Aug 19, 2013 11:08pm
Would this zone I've labelled count as a demand zone?

I wouldn't trade it, since the R;R isn't 1:2, but would it still count as a demand zone?


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  • #1,173
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:15pm Aug 19, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting Axlz
Would this zone I've labelled count as a demand zone? I wouldn't trade it, since the R;R isn't 1:2, but would it still count as a demand zone? {image}

I wouldn't consider it a DZ, I like them to be nicely defined RBD, DBR, RBR, DBD structures almost textbook like. You sometimes have to look at other frames to see if this pattern shows up; if not just ignore it. Not every swing is an area of supply or demand.
  • #1,174
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:20pm Aug 19, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I wouldn't consider it a DZ, I like them to be nicely defined RBD, DBR, RBR, DBD structures almost textbook like. You sometimes have to look at other frames to see if this pattern shows up; if not just ignore it. Not every swing is an area of supply or demand.
I personally didn't like the look of it either, but price bounced off it, so It made me wonder.

I mean, it could just be an area of support rather than demand, right? I remember Alfonso said he considers them to be different things.
  • #1,175
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:27pm Aug 19, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting Axlz
Is this kind of trading even worth it? I'm doing this to make money. Not so I can sit around and do nothing all day. There's so little entries on the higher TF, even on the 1H. And every pair I look at, according to these rules, is already "at the end of its curve".
Trading a plan is not doing nothing, changing your plan is driving you to distruction, patience is a most needed virtue in trading is a part of it. When you are talking about time wasting, you are just greed driven.
Dont be a jumper, you have to decide what kind a trader you are and act like chosen one.
My two cents from my own story
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #1,176
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:29pm Aug 19, 2013 11:29pm
Quoting Jackub
{quote} Trading a plan is not doing nothing, changing your plan is driving you to distruction, patience is a most needed virtue in trading is a part of it. When you are talking about time wasting, you are just greed driven. Dont be a jumper, you have to decide what kind a trader you are and act like chosen one. My two cents from my own story
I've been jumping from strategy to strategy for ages, and it has cost me thousands.

The only time I ever made money and was profitable, was when I was swing trading Daily TF, but I hated it.

I guess now is time to go back to what works.


And yes, I've seen you in so many forexfactory system threads, I get confused which one you trade Jackub, lol.
  • #1,177
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:32pm Aug 19, 2013 11:32pm
This is the real deal, but there's more to it than simply touch trading supply/demand areas. Actually I was pretty profitable doing just this but I did have some losing streaks / drawdown which I wasn't happy with. Price action at supply and demand is the key to super low risk high reward entries but understanding that price action is a skill that takes time to learn to recognize.

Don't force things by the way; sometimes the reason for a bounce is obvious but sometimes it's not, often the key is in lower time frames but there's more to understanding the important places to watch than simply highlighting every single S/D zone on a 5 minute chart (waste of time and money).
  • #1,178
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:34pm Aug 19, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting Kanzler
This is the real deal, but there's more to it than simply touch trading supply/demand areas. Actually I was pretty profitable doing just this but I did have some losing streaks / drawdown which I wasn't happy with. Price action at supply and demand is the key to super low risk high reward entries but understanding that price action is a skill that takes time to learn to recognize.
What areas of PA are you specifically looking for inside the zones?


And most of the time, price touches the zone and exits without leaving any PA clues. We can't sit and waiting for candle formations before entering.
  • #1,179
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:35pm Aug 19, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting Axlz
{quote} What areas of PA are you specifically looking for inside the zones? And most of the time, price touches the zone and exits without leaving any PA clues. We can't sit and waiting for candle formations before entering.
I'll PM you with some details, I don't want to post all of the answers on the public forum.
  • #1,180
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:36pm Aug 19, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I'll PM you with some details, I don't want to post all of the answers on the public forum.
Thanks. Appreciate it.
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