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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,621
  • Aug 18, 2013 11:01pm Aug 18, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting money89
Hello Dave. Apart from the daily technical analysis that you conduct. Do you also take the fundamentals into consideration for the day ? If so, What exactly you look at ?

If I become aware of some fundamentals it might make me bias my view e.g. there have been times when we would take no CT EUR or EJ trades. I don't worry about trying to trade the news as its not likely you'll beat the big boys in any event. You can get the same info from watching the candles. When CT trades have no follow through we stop and when there is good 2 way trade again we'll consider getting back in them.

So no I don't worry about watching out for the news/fundamentals trying to be first.
  • #6,622
  • Aug 18, 2013 11:19pm Aug 18, 2013 11:19pm
19 Aug 2013
EUR - D closed a negative doji rejecting the upper resistance level, potentially forming right shoulder on a head and shoulders pattern, still above the 8lwma and RSI 50 level. 4hr on higher high higher low. The W pivot is just above the 1.3300 support level and we'll need to see the reaction there.

GU - D closed with a very small range, Thurs large candle not following through. 4hr showing negative divergence. Whilst we could fall bias remains up.

EJ - Sideways for almost the whole week in the 129.50 - 130.50 range. No bias.

EA - D closed negative at the lows of recent range, which we are testing at the moment. We can bounce up from support but bias down.

AUD - D closed positive at the highs of recent range, which we are testing at the moment. We can move down from resistance but bias up.
  • #6,623
  • Aug 19, 2013 5:21am Aug 19, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Vantage
19 Aug 2013 EA - D closed negative at the lows of recent range, which we are testing at the moment. We can bounce up from support but bias down.
EA 15 min made a small higher high on a 1hr close. Resisted the temptation to get sucked into a sell on next 15 move down as it made the slight higher high, 1hr positive close and the obvious support area as mentioned this morning.

1hr closed with a higher low, in at 1.4501. As usual will post charts should the trade work out positively. It should around +60 now and the only thing that can seemingly go wrong is if we come crashing down just as quickly.
  • #6,624
  • Aug 19, 2013 8:27am Aug 19, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} EA 15 min made a small higher high on a 1hr close. Resisted the temptation to get sucked into a sell on next 15 move down as it made the slight higher high, 1hr positive close and the obvious support area as mentioned this morning. 1hr closed with a higher low, in at 1.4501. As usual will post charts should the trade work out positively. It should around +60 now and the only thing that can seemingly go wrong is if we come crashing down just as quickly.
We have hopefully had the pre/early US weak 1hr candle and we trust that US now takes EA higher.
  • #6,625
  • Aug 19, 2013 10:52am Aug 19, 2013 10:52am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} We have hopefully had the pre/early US weak 1hr candle and we trust that US now takes EA higher.
Mrs V could not watch further, I was out, so she decided to exit +83. Pity we were confident of further move up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,626
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:45pm Aug 19, 2013 4:45pm
Sad I've missed it as I wasn't at my desk..!!
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,627
  • Aug 19, 2013 11:27pm Aug 19, 2013 11:27pm
20Aug 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts.

EUR - D closed another doji with the upper resistance level 1.3380 holding. We are above D and 4hr RSI 50 level and above the moving averages so bias should be up but this can go either way. There should be better opportunities elsewhere. No bias.

GU - D closed positive with the upper resistance level holding, still on higher high higher low. 4hr negative divergence. Bias should be up for same reasons as EUR but this can go either way. No bias.

EJ - D closed a shooting star, the move above the recent range strongly rejected. No bias.

EA - D positive close, engulfing candle. Asian session moved up strongly this morning. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative, engulfing candle. Asian session has pushed lower to the area of the lows 3-15 July. Bias down.
  • #6,628
  • Edited Aug 21, 2013 2:14am Aug 20, 2013 11:47pm | Edited Aug 21, 2013 2:14am
21 Aug 2013
Click on date for 1hr charts.

EUR - Yesterday a move lower into London open failed with 1hr showing a positive close candle with a large lower wick. D closed positive. 4hr higher high higher low in tact. We are at the June highs1.3420 and whilst we can react lower from this level bias up.

GU - D closed positive on a low range. 4hr higher high higher low, seems like a struggle to move up, RSI crossed lower giving a counter D trend sell signal. Support found this morning around last weeks highs 1.5650. Bias up but the 1hr could flip over and give a lower high.

EJ - D closed positive, above 8lwma and above RSI 50 level but within the upper range 130.50. 4hr above 8lwma RSI 50 level but a struggle to move higher. I suspect up but no bias.

EA - D closed positive mainly on the back of a strong Asian push up. After London open when AUD moved up also, to break their opposite correlation EA struggled. Moved up cleanly again in Asian session when the AUD resumed down trend. We are again within striking distance of the major level 1.5000. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative with a lower wick. 4hr lower high lower low in tact. Bias down.
  • #6,629
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:54pm Aug 20, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Mrs V could not watch further, I was out, so she decided to exit +83. Pity we were confident of further move up. {image}

It is completely obvious that good trades taking out 83 pips are never the less inappropriate for EURAUD. Whilst there will be trades that get to these levels and come back to BE good entries can easily run for hundreds of pips and a different stop/exit strategy is required.
  • #6,630
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:37am Aug 21, 2013 6:37am
Got in long AU
Closed partial position at 30 pips and now at BE As the trend is down and i'm in CT

Thoughts Dave ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,631
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:13am Aug 21, 2013 7:13am
short euud.. cause of what I see 15 min USDX.. picture 15 min euud
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  • #6,632
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:16am Aug 21, 2013 7:16am
picture USDX 15 minnote patten and 200 and 20 ema
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,633
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:24am Aug 21, 2013 7:24am
EURAUD.. 4 hr short this near hi.. hi was 200% of weekly range and close 618 of last weeks range ..I think.. also long admy view on all is short term..oh yellow lines on 4 hr chart are pivot fibos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,634
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:43am Aug 21, 2013 8:43am
Quoting money89
Got in long AU Closed partial position at 30 pips and now at BE As the trend is down and i'm in CT Thoughts Dave ? {image}
A classic double bottom on a RN. CT so you have to take a view do you think this has legs to be a major reversal or are you in it for CT scalp pips?

I would think the move up is just a rally in a down trend. The reaction when we test RN again will be crucial.

Head a bit woolly though, Mrs V sick for last 2 days and I think I'm getting it. Off to get some medicine, takeaways and climbing into bed early. That normally works for me.
  • #6,635
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:44am Aug 21, 2013 8:44am
Quoting danc
short euud.. cause of what I see 15 min USDX.. picture 15 min euud {image}
Good luck. Mrs V has given up on EUR and for now does not even watch those charts.
  • #6,636
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:48am Aug 21, 2013 8:48am
Quoting danc
EURAUD.. 4 hr short this near hi.. hi was 200% of weekly range and close 618 of last weeks range ..I think.. also long admy view on all is short term..oh yellow lines on 4 hr chart are pivot fibos {image}
Nice one, I had 1.49 at the lower end of my supp/rest range. The upper end is 1.50. EA dropped 100 pips nice CT trade but for this pair seems a small dip in uptrend. We'll see what happens.
  • #6,637
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:50pm Aug 21, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Nice one, I had 1.49 at the lower end of my supp/rest range. The upper end is 1.50. EA dropped 100 pips nice CT trade but for this pair seems a small dip in uptrend. We'll see what happens.
Seems you rite V.. .. seems to me when GBPAD and EUAD.. reverse ADUD goes other way..?? I have been watching especialy GBPAD in this regard getting some good points.. doesn't happen all the time thou.. but some times they are in lock step on smaller time frames.. was wondering what your opnion?? Just as matter of interest
  • #6,638
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 8:01pm
Just as matter of interest.. USDX at mid week point.. 8143.. just my calcus thou.. mite watch EUUD for some possible hi side.. 4 hr chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,639
  • Aug 21, 2013 11:09pm Aug 21, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting danc
{quote} Seems you rite V.. .. seems to me when GBPAD and EUAD.. reverse ADUD goes other way..?? I have been watching especialy GBPAD in this regard getting some good points.. doesn't happen all the time thou.. but some times they are in lock step on smaller time frames.. was wondering what your opnion?? Just as matter of interest
I haven't watched GBAUD at all. I have looked at the inverse correlation on D for EA and AUD. Only recently noticed the shorter TF's to see when AUD is going in the same direction as EA that EA seems to struggle. So I'll be watching further and for now would want EA to be going in the opp direction as AUD.
  • #6,640
  • Aug 21, 2013 11:46pm Aug 21, 2013 11:46pm
22 Aug 2013
Click on date for D charts.

EUR - The June high resistance level won out and D closed negative partly on the back of the FOMC statement. D showing negative divergence but still on higher high higher low. If the US news was such a game changer why not a stronger reaction lower? We can go either way no bias.

GU - Did nothing for the day until the FOMC statement which started a move down and D closed a doji, small range. D negative divergence. Asian session followed through lower breaking the 4hr higher high higher low flow. 4hr negative divergence. We can go either way but I suspect down.

EJ - Another day of sideways drift, D closing a shooting star respecting the upper range. Asian session moved up strongly to test 131.00. I suspect up but no bias.

EA - D closed positive on the back of the FOMC statement. 4hr higher high higher low with negative divergence. The 1.4900/5000 resistance area may win out, 4hr may be running out of steam but bias up until flow confirms otherwise.

AUD - D closed negative, 4hr remains lower high lower low. We have bounced up from the same area that had the higher low on 7 Aug (clear from 4hr), I suspect a rally in down trend. Bias down.
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