Price CANNOT be random | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is random really random? 231 replies

My feeling on price movements - they are random 13 replies

Random Price Movement 177 replies

who has series of random generated price data? 44 replies

Price action pattern, and random thoughts 6 replies

Attachments: Price CANNOT be random
Exit Attachments

Price CANNOT be random

  • #61
  • Aug 14, 2013 11:51am Aug 14, 2013 11:51am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Also you gotta understand than the big boys do not always move the price on their own. They cannot make money if that is the case. Outside buyers or sellers must jump in the wagon at the right moment to shift the price into the direction that the big boys intended. Price fluctuations is the interaction between buyers and sellers. It is the culprit? What? I really don't understand what you're trying to say. Fluctuation is the effect, not the cause. How can it be the culprit? Oh maybe, just maybe, the dealing room in global investment banks...
nobody can control the forex market unless you're the swiss central bank.
aliens have way more cash than 500 bilion.
  • #62
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:06pm Aug 14, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} I do not believe in the existence of a "trend." i have the same belief for the reason that i consider price random.
hi tashkent,

What do you mean by i consider price random:
- that one can not know the probability of the next tick price: higher/ lower or the same as the last tick price
- there are no trends, repeating patterns just a collection of completely random tick price situations following each other

May I ask you: if one really beliefs price is completely random (no repeating patterns whatsoever) on what basis are you entering a trade.
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #63
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:07pm Aug 14, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} nobody can control the forex market unless you're the swiss central bank. aliens have way more cash than 500 bilion.
How can you say this? BOJ repeatedly intervened and pushed JPY pairs as they like. What makes Swiss central bank the only one? Are you saying the aliens on Federal Reserve is powerless. That Ben Bernanke cannot move a price with his syllables? ...

No one entity can control the forex market. That's right. That's why the banks work in cartel formation.
  • #64
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:15pm Aug 14, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} that post supposed to put me in my place i guess lol. if you still did not get it i will say in other words: price is random because you can't get into people's minds. "randomly non random". hilarious.
People's minds? No. People's action on the chart? Abso-fuck*ng-lutely.
  • #65
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:17pm Aug 14, 2013 12:17pm
this is the only intervention that interferes with the free market and the charts don't look normal. i've seen this only on chf. when you have a free market patterns work the same as with a random number generator that can generate chandlesticks. from my point of view the markets are a natural phenomenon and not particular to human behaviour or economy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: free market chf1.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #66
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:22pm Aug 14, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting deltatrade
this is the only intervention that interferes with the free market and the charts don't look normal. i've seen this only on chf. when you have a free market patterns work the same as with a random number generator that can generate chandlesticks. from my point of view the markets are a natural phenomenon and not particular to human behaviour or economy. {image}
Yes this was a blatant intervention when the Swiss Central Bank pegged the currency last year. They have lifted the peg since. This proves the point that price is not random, it can be controlled. When The Swiss felt like it, they did it. If the Feds feel like it, they can do it too. If BOJ feels like it, for sure they'll do it.
  • #67
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:26pm Aug 14, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Yes this was a blatant intervention when the Swiss Central Bank pegged the currency couple of years ago. They have lifted the peg since. This proves the point that price is not random, it can be controlled. When The Swiss felt like it, they did it. If the Feds feel like it, they can do it too. If BOJ feels like it, for sure they'll do it.
they put it up for 6 months. i understand it is very costly to do what they did and eventually they let the currency be free.
  • #68
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:10pm Aug 14, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting Ati Baia
{quote} hi tashkent, What do you mean by i consider price random: - that one can not know the probability of the next tick price: higher/ lower or the same as the last tick price - there are no trends, repeating patterns just a collection of completely random tick price situations following each other May I ask you: if one really beliefs price is completely random (no repeating patterns whatsoever) on what basis are you entering a trade.
As i already said there is a difference between randomness and unpredictability although they are interconnected.
when i say price is random i mean nobody knows how much money WILL come in or out. but my guess is it is possible to some extend relatively measure the proportion of money COMING in and out at that specific moment.

one can know the PROBABILITY of the next tick price. However this probability ratio is subjective, not universal. Meanwhile one can not know the NEXT tick price.

There are no trends. there are vectors. directional movements. when there is an opposite movement you will never know if it is a bounce or start of a giantic "trend".

Patterns exist but you will never know what pattern has been forming until it is obvious.

you can enter a trade for whatever reason you like, toss a coin if you like. most important this is managing that trade.
As Above, So Below
  • #69
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:29pm Aug 14, 2013 4:29pm
tashkent, Thanks for taking time to reply.

Quoting tashkent
one can know the PROBABILITY of the next tick price. However this probability ratio is subjective, not universal. Meanwhile one can not know the NEXT tick price..
could you be so kind and elaborate on that a bit.


Quoting tashkent
There are no trends. there are vectors. directional movements. when there is an opposite movement you will never know if it is a bounce or start of a giantic "trend". Patterns exist but you will never know what pattern has been forming until it is obvious. you can enter a trade for whatever reason you like, toss a coin if you like. most important this is managing that trade.
with what you stated above: how would you trade/manage a trade: there must be some parameters to base a decision on
each trade has 3 basic parameters: Entry Price, Lot size, Exit Price that's it.


Cheers

Ati
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #70
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:53pm Aug 14, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting Ati Baia
tashkent, Thanks for taking time to reply. {quote} could you be so kind and elaborate on that a bit. {quote} with what you stated above: how would you trade/manage a trade: there must be some parameters to base a decision on each trade has 3 basic parameters: Entry Price, Lot size, Exit Price that's it. Cheers Ati
these things are really complicated but one can simplify them.
you look at a TF you trade and see price made double top, pin bar, support or resistant level, 2nd wave, crucial fibo level, diversion, PA etc. etc. you see a setup for trade and you think it is higher probability, because usually after such setups price go in a specific direction per your experience. you take it per your subjective reasons. but do other traders think the same way? of course not. there will be always traders thinking exactly the opposite.
who does buy at peak? who does sell at bottom? but we do see people doing this every second, right? we think it is crazy.
it is crazy just as we sell at the peak
the point is, everyone has his own probability ratio of a specific setup at a specific price level. you can have your high probability setup, but that does not mean other traders share the same belief with you.
everything related to future will stay unseen unless you are omnipresent, which is an attribute of the Supreme Being.

you took a trade for whatever reason (you heard a thunderstorm while you were thinking if you should take this trade, your indicator started showing it is going at a/b direction, you saw beautiful pin bar at resistance/support, etc etc.) it started going in your direction. what do you do? would you add at every opportunity, or take some profit at a specific level? would you take all profit as soon as you see it or set BE? maybe you will not do anything and decide to wait x hrs to see where price will take you to?
maybe price went against you? would you close the position, partially close the position, setup SL, martingale? maybe wait until it reaches BE or TP? etc. etc.

leverage and how many percent of capital invested in one trade is another topic for discussion.

trading is not science, it is an art.
As Above, So Below
  • #71
  • Aug 15, 2013 2:10am Aug 15, 2013 2:10am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote}That's why the banks work in cartel formation.
You are right it seems. Listen to the audio in this article carefully. You may also google for Captain Jack's thread.

http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/art...iid=FXbiwkly08
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #72
  • Edited 6:42am Aug 15, 2013 5:40am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} these things are really complicated but one can simplify them. you look at a TF you trade and see price made double top, pin bar, support or resistant level, 2nd wave, crucial fibo level, diversion, PA etc. etc. you see a setup for trade and you think it is higher probability, because usually after such setups price go in a specific direction per your experience. you take it per your subjective reasons. but do other traders think the same way? of course not. there will be always traders thinking exactly the opposite. who does buy at peak?...
Aaa.. i see what you mean with "we can know the PROBABILITY of the next tick price. However this probability ratio is subjective, not universal."
you are right that if we sell someone else must be buying and vice-versa. BUT


Quoting tashkent
you take it per your subjective reasons. but do other traders think the same way? of course not. there will be always traders thinking exactly the opposite.
The opposite of once trade must not necessarily think different but might share our opinion.
- They might be forced to do so for whatever reason: if they are traders: Margin call, need the money for some other urgent matters ect..
- they might be non speculative Market participants: who need to exchange at that moment...
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #73
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:19am Aug 15, 2013 8:19am
is ishtana really suspended?
  • #74
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:42am Aug 15, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Ati Baia
if we sell someone else must be buying and vice-versa.
this sounds logical, if you sell, you must be selling to someone, right? but i think this not very accurate. there is no necessity for an opposite trade in forex. i pass on this to more knowledgeable fellows on the matter.
"
BUT {quote} The opposite of once trade must not necessarily think different but might share our opinion. - They might be forced to do so for whatever reason: if they are traders: Margin call, need the money for some other urgent matters ect.. - they might be non speculative Market participants: who need to exchange at that moment...

true.
As Above, So Below
  • #75
  • Aug 16, 2013 10:55am Aug 16, 2013 10:55am
Nice thread.
But first I need to shed more light on something.

THERE is no precise definition for true randomness.
Therefore, we tend to use the word random in a very loose manner. Be careful there.

is the string 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0 less random than the string 1-0-0-0-1-0-1-1-0? Both were produced from the process of tossing a coin.

If randomness to you mean - no discernible pattern - then you could be wrong too because there could be a pattern in the data that you can't see.

So, please show me a truly-random data!!!

For me, one of the few sources of true-random data will be the emission of particles from a decaying radioactive material. But even in this case, the data may look very much "non-random".

Therefore, maybe we should say that "price is not totally unpredictable".
  • #76
  • Aug 28, 2013 5:14am Aug 28, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Davit
{quote} ...At smaller TF 1,5min ,15, even 30 min price can andoftendoes not act randomly. That is it fluctuates too rapid on micro waves difficult to predict and this is why scalpers in most cases fail.
There, I fixed it for you.

News spikes, front running, stop running, brokers delaying execution, co-hosting on exchanges, big automated trading bots with the ability to trade 50 times per second will always out trade the poor upstairs bloke who has 200mS to the broker, then the broker needing to check the guy's account if he has sufficient funds, then the broker transmitting it to the counter party and another 200 mS back to the trader....

I agree on the 4 hours and longer periods, big players are also in it for the long run (and do not move billions in and out of the market every 5 minutes). Follow the big boys around and you're doing OK.
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #77
  • Aug 28, 2013 5:19am Aug 28, 2013 5:19am
Quoting tashkent
trading is not science, it is an art.
Trading is a mathematical issue and not an art. Otherwise the automated trading could not account for 60% of the liquidity in the market. If you have not worked this out / cannot recognize the "pattern" yes then you think the market is random and an art.
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #78
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:46am Aug 28, 2013 8:46am
Quoting mjl
{quote} Trading is a mathematical issue and not an art. Otherwise the automated trading could not account for 60% of the liquidity in the market. If you have not worked this out / cannot recognize the "pattern" yes then you think the market is random and an art.
100% True Trading is Mathematical Issue and not Art ! When people dont know The formulas of this market then they say this is random or you can be succesful by Art ! We dont have Art At a Certain market , Market Makers and Big boys dont Rise or fall Prices by Art ! they do this by Mathematical formulas of Economy or Secret Information Not by Art
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #79
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:29am Aug 28, 2013 9:29am
All these are just opinions about whether price is random or not. Does price follow a random walk? You can test for this!!!!!!

For example you can use this statistical test : http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v151y2009i2p140-149.htm. If you run this test on Forex pairs on different time frames you will see that, in general:

  1. The higher the time frame, the more price follows a random walk (you cannot discard the null hypothesis with a meaningful confidence)
  2. Lower time frames are more inefficient. For example you can discard the null hypothesis of price following a random walk with a 99% confidence on the NZDUSD, 5 min chart.

However I am sure no one will look into this as people on this forum are little interested in actually looking at ANY quantitative evidence. Just continue following opinions on what people think about randomness (which also seems to be different for each person here).

I don't understand why these threads based on opinions exist, when the answers can be provided in a quantitative manner by statistics.

  • #80
  • Aug 28, 2013 11:30pm Aug 28, 2013 11:30pm
Quoting erik1
I don't understand why these threads based on opinions exist, when the answers can be provided in a quantitative manner by statistics.
If you don't understand that
then you have no comprehension whatsoever

but you'll you'll never get it
that's OK
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
0 traders viewing now