Price CANNOT be random | Page 3 | Forex Factory

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Price CANNOT be random

  • #41
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:16am Aug 13, 2013 8:16am
"I made money every time you place your Stop loss too close to ME"
  • #42
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:55am Aug 13, 2013 9:55am
One or two days ago, i saw that crucialpoint started to post again and i dont know why but i knew that pipalicious was gonna come back too, and i was not wrong. Are you both related or something ? Cause one is always lagging behind the other .Anyway since i like your posts i hope you r gonna stay for a while.
  • #43
  • Aug 13, 2013 12:00pm Aug 13, 2013 12:00pm
There is new ongoing research by AFR that shows retail platforms generate about 20% of the total FX volumes only second to banks at 26%.We are bigger than institutional traders.The belief that professional traders know more than retailers is false. Banks make their profits from market making commissions and frontrunning the big orderflow. This is where they have unfair advantage, there is no true volumes in fx and we cannot see that 1000 lot hit the market and move it 30 pips but they can since they are the ones executing the order and the place their 100 lot ahead to ride the flow this is not illegal in FX.Bill lipschultz said that Citibank loses about 30% of their profits trying to make directional trades.Even among the pros only 20% are profitable.
They are clueless as john doe about where the market will go.

wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #44
  • Edited 2:24pm Aug 13, 2013 2:05pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting Jackub
{quote} There is no difference beetwin small time frame and big time frame. Only Time is different, things happen much faster, in much lower period of time... look at those screen shots, witch one is M1 and witch is D1, tell me the difference. {image} {image}

That is a fundamental error,to think that there is no difference in trading smaller time frames and bigger tf's. Every institutional broker that I have had so far chance to enter into an open chat has confirmed this for me. It would be in your best interest to do a research on this on your own, if you don't believe my words. And ofcourse, you can also derive this from your own experience, as you say "only time is different". And what is "time" but the most crucial factor in doing any job proper?! Think about it and do your own inquiry by directly contacting people that monitor stats of thousands of trading accounts for years and trade themselves preferably too. gl
  • #45
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:09pm Aug 13, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting pemully
There is new ongoing research by AFR that shows retail platforms generate about 20% of the total FX volumes only second to banks at 26%.We are bigger than institutional traders.The belief that professional traders know more than retailers is false. Banks make their profits from market making commissions and frontrunning the big orderflow. This is where they have unfair advantage, there is no true volumes in fx and we cannot see that 1000 lot hit the market and move it 30 pips but they can since they are the ones executing the order and the place...
Surely they are not attempting to move majors...
  • #46
  • Edited 2:26pm Aug 13, 2013 2:16pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} It's exactly the same as my own reaction the first time I heard that the market is not trending. Well, statistically, price tends to range more than it trends. And the definition of higher high, higher low and vice versa would surely have cost retail trades millions of dollars. Price actually "shifts" from one zone to another. This is their business model and their cycle. What most traders fail to understand is that: Forex market is a society of anarchy where the powerful uses brute force to control everything that happens to the price....
Ofcourse, most pairs are indeed "ranging". But there are great opportunities every year for thousands of pips to be made in large trends. You've just got to be picky and patient.
  • #47
  • Aug 13, 2013 11:43pm Aug 13, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting pemully
There is new ongoing research by AFR that shows retail platforms generate about 20% of the total FX volumes only second to banks at 26%.We are bigger than institutional traders.The belief that professional traders know more than retailers is false. Banks make their profits from market making commissions and frontrunning the big orderflow. This is where they have unfair advantage, there is no true volumes in fx and we cannot see that 1000 lot hit the market and move it 30 pips but they can since they are the ones executing the order and the place...
No, the big boys don't always win either. If they do, their profits would be in trillions or basically unlimited. The fact is I know for sure that even banks have limited equity, so they are not winning 100% all the time. Besides, you need a fresh supply of losers for them to win. They don't have a magic wand to make money out of thin air. If no one is speculating, the banks just simply won't make money.

Retail traders may have a role globally, but not individual retail traders. The big boys are much more interested when they grab hundreds of millions in one entry exit trade (which involve many mini trades along the way), than taking your $5000/$50,000 loss.

Now, the complexity of how the banks work can be roughly reduced to two economic concepts: Oligopoly and Game Theory. No one particular entity is able to move 200 pips on their own. And to go "all in" would sure to cause a loss to them. So the banks have to work in a form of cartel. Order flows have to be syndicated so they all can see the aggregate position, globally. Now this is where it gets tricky. It is for their own best interest to work together to achieve profit. But it is also in their best interest to betray their cartel and to achieve massive profit. There is only honor among thieves in the market.

Should we care? Understanding it does help. But for you to be profitable, you only need to know when the majority of this cartel commit their equity in one direction.
  • #48
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:31am Aug 14, 2013 2:31am
It's random when it takes your money.
It's perfect order when you extract a few pips

Which do you prefer ?
which one do you see most of the time ?
  • #49
  • Edited 12:13pm Aug 14, 2013 4:09am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} ... {image}
Another timid soul who can only ridicule others and provide no argument to the contrary.

Price is not random = water is wet? HAHAHHAHA How did you pass SAT with a logic like that? Omg. The first time I read it, I actually laughed my ass off. I shouldn't, but uh I couldn't resist. Such is the entertainment value of Forex Factory. But then I realize it's coming from someone who arithmetically calculates 2 + 2 = 4ex... Um... Uh... HAHAHHAHAHHAHHHA. Wait, he got +10v! Um ... That don't mean jack shit! HAHHAHAHAHA. Thanks for brighten up my day, I'll buy a drink if we ever met.

Like I said, I'm not claiming any credit of what I know. I'm sharing what has been shared to me. I'm not putting my own spin. I don't want to misled people, there are so many people who have done that already. It would be pointless if I do the same. All I know to be true about forex come from those who work in bank and know the inner working of them. It is classified information because without stealth, the big boys are unable to make any profit. So if you're ridiculing them, you're ridiculing yourself. Wait, are you saying you know better than them? You're saying these people are full of shit? The very people who manage billions everyday? Who live and breathe foreign exchange transactions 24/5 a week? Wow. Quite arrogant I have to say.

Go back to your smart friends. We're obviously are not good enough to satisfy your higher processing thought. But hold on, if you're so smart, why are you keep reading and following my inferior threads, and worse, keep posting on them, hmmm ... ... ... HAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAAA.

HUE!
  • #50
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:28am Aug 14, 2013 4:28am
Hi Ishanta

Another thought provoking thread from you.

Is this thread random? It depends on he context in which I view the forum. To you it is not a random thread, it came form a certain logic and some fundamental reason made you open a new topic to pose a certain question.

Is this thread random to me? well if you look at all the other threads and their titles then I would say yes this thread is random as I can not fully comprehend the logic in which made you create it.

By that notion then you could make a case for random and non random events. Is a coin flip random? Well the flip itself may appear to be but at some level, the time it was flipped, the force it was flipped with, the height it was tossed, these factors may have cause a seemingly random result from a not so random set of circumstances. If I could slow that coin flipping 100X and watch it I could likely predict accurately whether it comes up heads or tails as I can see the rotations down to the point in which it lands.

If you saw someone on the street approach another person and shoot them in the face, then this would seem to the naked eye quite a random and unprovoked incident in amongst the 1 million other people in the city who did not choose to open fire on another person that day.,

If however you knew that this person was violent and unstable and that he person he shot had just had sex with his wife and then posted the sex video on line and even rang up the guy with the gun to brag about it, then perhaps the event on the street would not seem so random.

The devil is in the detail.. What is random to you may be completely expected to others with more insight.. What is not random to you may be completely perplexing to others who don't share your insight.

Why does a bank then not stake 100% of it';s capital on the markets if the markets are not random and completely predictable? Because there is always the chance that they are unaware of details and actions of others. They are not 100% sure but can take advantage of what they believe to be true.

At the core no markets cannot be random otherwise price would move without anyone trading. People trade for certain reasons and therefore these intentions justify the price movement as a non random event. Predicting their intentions, now that's where opinions may differ.

If the guy with 400 billion is staking a claim on a long EUR but the guy with 600 billion believes in a short and as the only two traders the price drops short then what is random? what is non random? it doesn't even matter... more short side liquidity was demanded and price therefore fell...

Completely logical and non random.. But if you had no idea this was happening then of course to you, it was a random fall in price as you fail to put a justifiable reason as to why price fell.

Price is randomly non random... Random because there are 1 billion different people trading for 900 million different reasons, and non random because they trade with reason.
Time hides Nothing
  • #51
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:42am Aug 14, 2013 6:42am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi Ishanta Another thought provoking thread from you. Is this thread random? It depends on he context in which I view the forum. To you it is not a random thread, it came form a certain logic and some fundamental reason made you open a new topic to pose a certain question. Is this thread random to me? well if you look at all the other threads and their titles then I would say yes this thread is random as I can not fully comprehend the logic in which made you create it. By that notion then you could make a case for random and non random events. Is...
Much more elegantly put than mine. That's all folks. Now there is absolutely no reason for the Random Walk Theory to be true. There is no reason to believe that price is moving randomly. Just because we don't know where price will go, we cannot label it as random.

Price is mechanical, someone buys big it goes up, someone sells big it goes down. Someone buys small it stays still. But second to second spread movement is entirely depend on the market makers who quote them.

On to my next topic, the most famous disclaimer in forex world:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This is basically saying historical data doesn't have it's value because the system might have done great in the past, but might fail in the future. Maybe. Maybe not if you trade with the big boys.
  • #52
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:46am Aug 14, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Much more elegantly put than mine. That's all folks. Now there is absolutely no reason for the Random Walk Theory to be true. There is no reason to believe that price is moving randomly. Just because we don't know where price will go, we cannot label it as random. Price is mechanical, someone buys big it goes up, someone sells big it goes down. Someone buys small it stays still. But second to second spread movement is entirely depend on the market makers who quote them. On to my next topic, the most famous disclaimer in forex world: Past...
Now you're thinking
Time hides Nothing
  • #53
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:57am Aug 14, 2013 7:57am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Price is randomly non random..

another priceless statement .
"I made money every time you place your Stop loss too close to ME"
  • #54
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:16am Aug 14, 2013 9:16am
Quoting Ishtana
price is a consciously controlled mechanism, used by the powerful, to benefit the few.
conspiracy theory on price. excelent. but why blame other people and not the main culprits of price fluctuations.

T H E A L I E N S. they are here and they don't want you to make a living trading the forex market.
  • #55
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:18am Aug 14, 2013 9:18am
price is randomly non random?? please guys...
let me try too: price is predictably unpredictable.
price is chaotically non-chaotic.

price is random unless you know the reason behind each trade decision made in each second (i speculate millions of trades per second on a single pair, despite disproportional trade size), no matter what twisted explanations you come up with to prove otherwise.

there is very delicate difference between randomness and predictability. i think some mixing them up.
As Above, So Below
  • #56
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:13am Aug 14, 2013 10:13am
Quoting tashkent
price is randomly non random?? please guys... let me try too: price is predictably unpredictable. price is chaotically non-chaotic. price is random unless you know the reason behind each trade decision made in each second (i speculate millions of trades per second on a single pair, despite disproportional trade size), no matter what twisted explanations you come up with to prove otherwise. there is very delicate difference between randomness and predictability. i think some mixing them up.
Or predictably unpredictable maybe
or non chaotically chaotic

and then YES, that was our point I believe "price is random unless you know the reason behind each trade decision made in each second "

So you read a few words and got all emotional.. It's OK, happens to anyone who comes in here just looking for a punching bag...

I hope this post was not too twisted for you and sorry you could offer no better despite sh*tting on the original

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #57
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:43am Aug 14, 2013 10:43am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Or predictably unpredictable maybe or non chaotically chaotic and then YES, that was our point I believe "price is random unless you know the reason behind each trade decision made in each second " So you read a few words and got all emotional.. It's OK, happens to anyone who comes in here just looking for a punching bag... I hope this post was not too twisted for you and sorry you could offer no better despite sh*tting on the original http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWo-02Hsab4
that post supposed to put me in my place i guess lol.
if you still did not get it i will say in other words: price is random because you can't get into people's minds.
"randomly non random". hilarious.
As Above, So Below
  • #58
  • Edited 11:46am Aug 14, 2013 11:27am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} conspiracy theory on price. excelent. but why blame other people and not the main culprits of price fluctuations. T H E A L I E N S. they are here and they don't want you to make a living trading the forex market.
Say what? Conspiracy theory? And the main culprit is price fluctuations? What?! It sounds too alien a concept to me.

There are only a handful of investment banks globally who deal with foreign exchange, and few other financial institutions, and then comes hedge funds, then millions of traders. So really even though they are massive, their numbers are small compared to all entities involved in the foreign exchange. And if you have 500 billion on your bank account now, of course you can control the price, that's what Soros did recently on AUD/USD.

Hence, the price is controlled by the few powerful entities to benefit themselves. I haven't heard yet a bank gets margin called. I've heard plenty of stories of retail and wholesale traders losing big money though.

Also you gotta understand than the big boys do not always move the price on their own. They cannot make money if that is the case. Outside buyers or sellers must jump in the wagon at the right moment to shift the price into the direction that the big boys intended.

Price fluctuations is the interaction between buyers and sellers. It is the culprit? What? I really don't understand what you're trying to say. Fluctuation is the effect, not the cause. How can it be the culprit?

Oh maybe, just maybe, the dealing room in global investment banks are filled with Aliens. Hmm.. scary thought. But just maybe. You may be right. An alien technology that allows them to win big consistently. A great conspiracy theory indeed. Excellent.
  • #59
  • Aug 14, 2013 11:35am Aug 14, 2013 11:35am
I think when one talks about if price is random:

1.
One can not involve different TF ideas. e.g. on smaller TF Price is random on higher not or something like this.
basically chart TF's are just different ways to look at many SinglePriceSituations in a particular way: not much more and not much less and the same goes for most indicators.

If Higher TF's are not random how could it be that smaller TF's are random? They use the same SinglePriceSituations but just bundle/display them in a different from.
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #60
  • Aug 14, 2013 11:36am Aug 14, 2013 11:36am
Quoting Ishtana
I do not believe in the existence of a "trend."
i have the same belief for the reason that i consider price random.
As Above, So Below
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