Australian Bear Raid

This weekend if you find yourself bored start working on a thesis trade for fed September meeting? If you only scalp or take 20 here and there this might not be for you. But for the ones sitting in the middle of this consolidation as we approach the anticipated fed tapering or not consider these questions in your analysis

first is it likely the fed will taper next month? If you believe yes start checking CFTC.gov bank participation reports and the COTreport and look to see of bias is shifting again for the dollar



will a correlation play take hold again which would see dollar rise and AUD fall on an almost symmetrical basis?

overlap /dx and AUD futures and put up correlation and beta to see if that relationship comes back online

consider this also it's very likely RBA will cut rates Once more at the end of the year with the negative bias on rates iAustralia and the rising bias of higher rates in EU US CAD the interest lay will further breakdown on AUD. not to mention there is nothing mor attractive in currency investing than a rising RER and rising interest rates or at least the perception of rates rising

This weekend if you find yourself bored start working on a thesis trade for fed September meeting.If you only scalp or take 20 here and there this might not be for you. But for the ones sitting in the middle of this consolidation as we approach the anticipated fed tapering or not consider these questions in your analysis to ride the next wave where u can just sit on your hands and not worry abut monitoring charts every 5 min

first is it likely the fed will taper next month? If you believe yes start checking CFTC.gov bank participation reports and the COTreport and look to see of bias is shifting again for the dollar



will a correlation play take hold again which would see dollar rise and AUD fall on an almost symmetrical basis?

overlap /dx and AUD futures and put up correlation and beta to see if that relationship comes back online

consider this also it's very likely RBA will cut rates Once more at the end of the year with the negative bias on rates iAustralia and the rising bias of higher rates in EU US CAD the interest lay will further breakdown on AUD. not to mention there is nothing mor attractive in currency investing than a rising RER and rising interest rates or at least the perception of rates rising

Everyone knows where I stand on AUD as my reversal target and short exits were stated a page or two back which is lower prices.before I exit I too am going to add if I believe fed will tape.This weekend is crunch time for position and trend traders because adding at the last stage on a move is difficult but I want to make sure I don't go into September the day of fed meeting and get in at unfavorable prices w/I a full position

if you start planning now and start positioning near the highs or lows of this consolidation channel(not the middle) heading into fed depending on your bias you won't have to be that guy who buys 5mn before the meeting and panic when it drops or rises exceeding your stop loss getting u out at bad prices

If u position trade view the fedpositioning trade as one which could go massively right or just a little bit wrong if u get in a favorable prices and sit on your hands till the announcement

I like your style JP, if I had your bank roll I'd trade the same way.. All you need is that one pay day to make 5 years of income. Love it

Did you end up nailing that Aussie short though?.. do tell!

Cindy,

aplogies if I don't respond fast enough usually I'm either looking for equity trades on weekly options or I am studying for the CFA exam which Im hoping to crush.


Believe me I am not a happy go lucky guy when I lose money or am in a losing position.I do not scam ppl on this site because I knhow how bad they are with crappy services I'm not sure what gave that impression. Since starting in FF I came here because when u talk to the general public about markets or economics they don't know or don't care to engage but here I have made some great friends who I actually talk to on a regular basis and they share insight. I never once tried to sell anybody anything or directed them to a for profit site that might be affiliated with me simply because I don't believe in most forpop trading schools out there. My philosophy has always been if u want to learn how to trade currencies go to your local library or goodwill and buy trading or corporate/multinational finance textbooks. There are guys out there who won't charge u thousands of dollars to learn their system and are willing to share their mistakes


as

As for going to Australia it was a convention that discussed mining sector and new projects that hope to come on I only wish ould go to every mine and check under the hood but no grown ass man is going to let a nobody say hey sure come check out our mines lol
I did do very well in AUD and yes I mainly am in currency options and futures which I try to trade delta neutral to offset the crazswings. I understand I'm not like others on here who post long entries and short entries talking about scalping here and there like I was but that is only because my trading style is different and more longer term based


I will be on Saturday and post a heap of stuff that's been ruminating in my head on aud as I believe we are soon approaching a final purge moment before liquidity drops off and this causes a channel then we reverse higher

How do we read the Bank Participation Report? I mean, is there a special way or is it if there is more percent long than short it means banks see bullishness for the currency? The reason I ask is because EURO has had more Longs than Shorts ever since the beginning of the report in August 2011 but you can see Euro has been sideways moving...