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Supply and Demand Zones 48 replies

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Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Quoting panoramia
Hi Boby! GBPAUD is bouncing off Monthly supply, shorts are higher odds. I don't see any levels on your chart, so I don't know where you were intending to sell. I don't see any rectangles, so I can't tell you. I've attached my H4 chart. There is no possibility of drawing a descending trendline because there are not 2 obvious swings (peaks). So that H4 speedbump supply could be a nice area to short. Right underneath we have compressed demand, that is, domino effect, all levels are absorbed, not too much imbalance, and can be easily absorbed. The last...

I understand the reason now. I wanted to sell right at h4 speedbump that you have marked. Thank you!
Hi traders,

What you guys think of this chart? Yes, we are at 20% bottom curve weekly, but I this daily supply tempting me a lot! I'll watch closely how price will react in this area.

AUDCHF
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Another chart that I'm watching to see a engulf (new supply) on lower timeframe.

USDCHF
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Or maybe better that way?
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Hi Boby!

There were H1 areas within the D1 demand on EURJPY. We have to look for confirmation on those areas, where price reacted in the past. The top one (purple), was not origiinal. The lower one (blue) was original (set & forget), which worked really well as you could see.

How to avoid those losses on confirmation trades?

  1. Wait for price to reach areas where price reacted within that D1 demand, not just having hit D1 demand, but lower timeframe areas (H1 or H4), where price reacted
  2. The top purple level was neither original nor fresh and would have caused the losses as you can see on the charts. We want fresh levels if possible or the extremes
  3. Which one is the origin of the whole move up? The top or the bottom blue one? The blue one. It's higher odds
  4. The bottom blue one is ideal for set & forget, but also to wait for confirmation
  5. Look at the D1 as a big block composed of smaller blocks (lower timeframe's SD areas). You want one of those lower timeframe zones to be hit before you start looking for higher probability confirmation trades
  6. You can also wait for previous lower timeframe supply to be absorbed before you go long
  7. Once there is a loss, you need to wait for an area lower than the initial entry, that is, deeper into the D1 demand area, and start all over again

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Quoting bobyv87
Hello Alfonso! I have a question about new h1 fresh level which is formed in D1 demand. H1 level can be taken without taking into account h4 supply levels if that is formed in d1 demand? I put some charts In this case you have 3 losses in a row and next time price will not hit the entry. How to avoid that? {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi Mfinab!

On AUDCHF we're also on Monthly Demand. Fully penetrated. We hit a weekly demand area withint the Monthly demand area and price has been rallying since the beginning of this week. Longs are higher odds.

I've decided to make a deeper analysis of AUDCHF so that you understand much better the way the methodology works. It's always like this, over and over and over. Sometimes levels will fail, but that's not a problem, you will have others that will work.

Some levels may look like having no strong imbalance, but remember that price is trending, and there is lots of room to opposing SD area, big corrections won't happen.

This is the Monthly chart:
We're at Monthly Demand, fully penetrated.

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Weekly chart:
Price rallied strongly from that area in the past, it looks like it's trying to do the same now.
AUDUSD is also bouncing off Monthly demand, so it helps AUDCHF as well
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D1 chart:
On the D1 timeframe, there will be some resistance on the way up with fresh D1 supply, there will be some reaction and corrections, but those zones could finally be taken out.
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H4 chart:
Since we know price is bouncing off a Weekly demand within Monthly demand, we look for lower timeframes confirmation trades. You can see there were 3 trades on the way up drawn in grey because they are no longer fresh. I must say I've not taken any of these trades since I'm on holidays, and you would need to be all day long in front of the computer to take them all. I'm just looking at it in hindsight. All is beautiful when looked in hindsight, you just need the confidence and rules to take them all and be able to continue trading even with a few losses in a row. Emotions will be in control and you might miss THE trade if you have a couple of losses.

Now we have some new fresh entries formed.

Hope this analysis helps you understand better the way supply and demand works.
Alfonso


Quoting mfinab
Hi traders, What you guys think of this chart? Yes, we are at 20% bottom curve weekly, but I this daily supply tempting me a lot! I'll watch closely how price will react in this area. AUDCHF {image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting panoramia
Hi Boby! There were H1 areas within the D1 demand on EURJPY. We have to look for confirmation on those areas, where price reacted in the past. The top one (purple), was not origiinal. The lower one (blue) was original (set & forget), which worked really well as you could see. How to avoid those losses on confirmation trades? Wait for price to reach areas where price reacted within that D1 demand, not just having hit D1 demand, but lower timeframe areas (H1 or H4), where price reacted The top purple level was neither original nor fresh and would...
Thank you. I'll probably use from now, only confirmation entries. It's higher odds than trading any original or in the middle of curve!
Quoting panoramia
My NZDUSD was also a loss But that's the way it is, sometimes we win, others we lose It would be very strange to see a thread or a system where all trades are winners, we need to see losers, we'll lose MANY trades, but that's fine! Yesterday we had a nice 125-150 pips EURUSD short which some of you took, today this NZDUSD short was a loss. We never know what's gonna happen, so we take the loss and on to another trade opportunity! NZDUSD is now at another H4 supply, there are 2 levels, level on top of level. Price could eventually react in...
Yeah, the risk is small but the potential reward is always good ,
a little evaluation for me after hitting the supply area the NZUSD did not bounce instead it stay there for more than 2 hours, so I think if such occurs again in the future trade it could be an indication that there's no actual supply/demand sitting in the zone, well just my theory
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
Quoting panoramia
Hi Mfinab! On AUDCHF we're also on Monthly Demand. Fully penetrated. ...... {image}
Hi Alfonso,

Thanks for the nice explaination on AUDCHF. Last week, I was long on this pair and it has performed so much well that I took profit too soon! Haha! I'll have to forget my trades on certain criteria.

I agree now that it's not in my favor to short. I haven't found any good signal yet since 2 days. I'll be patient....

Mfinab
That could work if you were trading lower timeframes. Remember that we're trading H4 charts. 2 hours is half of a H4 candle. Look at the levels, spend some screen time watchin the levels work, you will see that reactions are not always "touch and go", it may stay there for some ours or even days (in D1/WK levels) and then drop like a rock, price accummulates and distributes and then goes the way the big money has planned.

Once a trade is set and triggered, we shouldn't touch it. You will regret most of the times if you do! Once the trade is in, the % you risk should be considered "LOST", so whatever happens happens!

Alfonso

Quoting danzka
{quote} Yeah, the risk is small but the potential reward is always good , a little evaluation for me after hitting the supply area the NZUSD did not bounce instead it stay there for more than 2 hours, so I think if such occurs again in the future trade it could be an indication that there's no actual supply/demand sitting in the zone, well just my theory
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting panoramia
That could work if you were trading lower timeframes. Remember that we're trading H4 charts. 2 hours is half of a H4 candle. Look at the levels, spend some screen time watchin the levels work, you will see that reactions are not always "touch and go", it may stay there for some ours or even days (in D1/WK levels) and then drop like a rock, price accummulates and distributes and then goes the way the big money has planned. Once a trade is set and triggered, we shouldn't touch it. You will regret most of the times if you do! Once the trade is in,...
Thank you, I think the last sentence is important , apprecate it
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
Keep in mind that there is a lot less order flow this time of year. I personally do very little trading in August.
Quoting panamamike
Keep in mind that there is a lot less order flow this time of year. I personally do very little trading in August.

yeah middle of august, thank you
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
Unfortunately, I have to cancel the H1 long trade for GBPJPY I had planned yesterday because there was a new level of demand formed right above and even though it looked tiny and no with not a big imbalance, it has already rallied 110 pips, crazy!

That's why when the pair is trending and making new demand levels in an established uptrend (demand being respected, supply violated) or using a trendline as a mechanical rule to asses trend.

Now price is too high in the curve, closer to D1 supply so no more buying.

Hope the rationale makes sense to you.

Alfonso



Quoting panoramia
Planning a long trade on H1 demand on GBPJPY. Price bounced D1 demand, created several H1/H4 demand areas but no entries available. On H4/H1 previous supply had been absorbed, so we have a nice profir margin to go long at. Conegested H4 supply area, too much time at the area, easily absorbed, room to D1 supply. This H4 supply area was also resistance on the D1 chart. This is why it's not good to use SD areas with too much trading in the zone and having hit the D1 demand, they can be easily taken out. Trendlines are giving us the direction: up. Price...
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Here is a current trade I'm in on the Aussie200 Index.

Price has reached the weekly proximal line and I've entered on H1 confirmation trade .. will see how it goes

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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
HI guys I am new one to this thread, just ask you kindly if my SD zones are prepared correctly...
Be so kind an verify please
EJ Daily
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EJ H4
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EJ H1
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thank you in advance...
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
That Aussie200 Index short trade on H1 looks like a great trade Peter! You followed the rules step by step, you did a great job there!

No matter if the trade is successful or not, you did follow the rules. Following the rules is KEY because supply and demand always works the same way!

Great job!!!
Alfonso


Quoting outapips
Here is a current trade I'm in on the Aussie200 Index. Price has reached the weekly proximal line and I've entered on H1 confirmation trade .. will see how it goes {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Your zones look good except that some of them are reaction to previous ones, and on other zones (H1) you don't cover the lowest lowest or highest highs on the zones.

See my EURJPY's H4 chart and you will see the H4 supply area price reacted to, you have it very different to mine. I took into account the reaction to the speedbump.

It happens similar on the D1 demand where price reacted to, it's a reaction to a previous level. Try to draw the D1 levels again with that in mind and post it again

Alfonso


Quoting Jackub
HI guys I am new one to this thread, just ask you kindly if my SD zones are prepared correctly... Be so kind an verify please EJ Daily {image} EJ H4 {image} EJ H1 {image} thank you in advance...
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi,
this is my analysis to GBPUSD

on the weekly the price is a bit higher but there is a nice room between price and supply zone
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on the daily price is in uptrend
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this is 1 hour, price makes new demand zones but i have a question. i placed limit order above demand zone, is this a real demand zone because the price violated previous supply zone or price need to violate supply zone in the yellow circle to be a good demand zone?
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Alessandro
I have sold the pound lets see what happens, charts explain.
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Quoting wbh
I have sold the pound lets see what happens, charts explain.{image}{image}
Wbh,
would you please be so kind and explain a newbie in S-D trading why , your supply zone wasn't wider , please??
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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
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