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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,981
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:17am Aug 14, 2013 5:17am
Quoting Grownupchild
Sun Tzu said: "The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy." Very very deep. Trade well!
So what happens when both opponents use this tactic?
Time hides Nothing
  • #41,982
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:17am Aug 14, 2013 5:17am
Hi all

i think that is a must read .... you have the right to disagree but before to throw it in the recycle bin think twice .....
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  • #41,983
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:33am Aug 14, 2013 5:33am
Quoting Grownupchild
I do not know the first thing about financials. I am totally incompetent, a 7 year young child could tell you more about it I bet. I think, someone can be a good trader without that though, but I feel sometimes ashamed. It does not feel great either to drive a car like a pro but stand next to the car totally incompetent when the motor shuts down.
In a nutshell the philosophy is simple

Investment requires compensation for the foregone capital over time and for this reason investors part with money and therefore seek the highest possible return for a given level of risk.

Interest rates are where it is at, and everything stems out form that into a million different instruments.. Interest rates represent the Time Value of Money, money which is also subject to inflation. The more people have to spend the better the businesses in that economy will do as money is free to circulate... But demand drives prices up, higher prices -= inflation. The central banks predicament: The balancing act between Investment and Spending.. To influence one, you cut the other... Lower interest rates = more opportunity for consumers to borrow and spend (less cost) but limit the returns that investors will earn.

Return for Risk.. Equities offer the highest possible return by nature but conversely the greatest risk. Bonds are the least riskiest investment by perception/ nature but conversely offer the lowest return.. The inflation rate eats into returns as they barely compensate.

At it's most basic form that is Finance... Risk vs Return.

So... The economic releases represent changes in the current landscape of the economy, if demand is picking up then the economy may be growing then there will be more jobs available which leads to more demand from suppliers which creates more jobs which creates more people with money to spend which creates more confidence which creates more demand which creates stocks to rise in value as companies profit more, which creates a demand for stocks which creates money to flow out of safe investments like bonds and into the stock market... Which creates more demand which creates more inflation which creates the need for the central bank to step in and control the price rise by way of monetary policy....

Conversely, poor economic readings represent lack of growth which represent lack of spending which represent lack of sales which represent a diminished need for jobs which represent higher unemployment which represents lower confidence which represents lack of spending which represents lower company earnings which represent a demand for safe assets like bonds which represents the need for the central bank to kick start the economy by way of making money more accessible which represents lower interest rates which represents easing in monetary policy..

But you already knew all that... The big words and financial jargon just confuse you.
Time hides Nothing
  • #41,984
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:00am Aug 14, 2013 6:00am
Hi Grownupchild

I too am not good at financials and I am dyslexic (as I know are some others here), my maths is not to clever, but that is just baggage if you carry it with you, your others senses will compensate for the areas that are not what they should be according to the mainstream view, I find I only need to know if the market could be adversely affected by the news releases that day (for the way I trade), which in my experience there are only a few that do this every month, so I trade very cautiously when I know these are due out. The way I learnt about the financials is to read the FF news release and see how they affect the price and you will see what the market is worried about and what to be careful of, if you sign up (it is free) to advfn you can get the news summary delivered at GMT 10am and 6pm with a roundup of what the market may be thinking about and a what is happing about news already released, I only read the top part as this relates to the general market and lower down is share news, this was/is a good tool for me, I am sure other companies supply similar service and it probably does not make much difference who you sign up with so long as you get two news releases a day.
The market does not always react to news items the way you think it should, for instance the market may be ‘expecting’ something and when it is released it is either already priced in or it has already been ‘overpriced’ in, this is why the only truth in the market is the price.
Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,985
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:16am Aug 14, 2013 6:16am
sell for 50 pip usdjyp pair
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  • #41,986
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:00am Aug 14, 2013 7:00am
For the few hours after the BOE event.
I had been watching the manipulating.
after the up swing.
he bids in the cable.
then offers the euro.
specifically at 13250.
if taken in euro, he buys and bids up the cable.

in the few hour process he had managed to position and short the euro cable.
i am waiting for him profit take.
then i gonna scalp market clean.


Oh also for past 3 days had been watching a wasp building mold nest outside at the patio.
she deligently brining clay and building it.
Yesterday she put a green worm probablly with her eggs attached into the mold and sealed it.
today i firestormed it so the kid is dead.

anyway , semms lots wanna bes coming on thread trying to teach , when they cannot.
is a norm thingy with wannabes.

oh sirji, you best be out of this thread soonest possible because i going to fry your ass, if you don't.
this your second disturbance.
1 more and i will start bonfire.
so ls not say i not tollarant.
Pls go start your own thread instead, master trader.

I not like see global ocean currents in my thread, ok?
or maybe you go join nasa watch global currents instead.

regards
  • #41,987
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:10am Aug 14, 2013 7:10am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} In a nutshell the philosophy is simple Investment requires compensation for the foregone capital over time and for this reason investors part with money and therefore seek the highest possible return for a given level of risk. Interest rates are where it is at, and everything stems out form that into a million different instruments.. Interest rates represent the Time Value of Money, money which is also subject to inflation. The more people have to spend the better the businesses in that economy will do as money is free to circulate... But...
Interest rates are where it is at

Absolutely and they are going up - the bond vigilantes are taking their revenge.

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  • #41,988
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:12am Aug 14, 2013 7:12am
another one.

seems they travel in groups.
can't do it on your own thread?

or is it the current drifted your chaps here?

regards

PS:Oh I still alive.
  • #41,989
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:16am Aug 14, 2013 7:16am
near, about when ec hits 0.8535, he may start the process.

regards
  • #41,990
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:17am Aug 14, 2013 7:17am
Good to see your ego is still getting the better of you lol.
  • #41,991
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:17am Aug 14, 2013 7:17am
Quoting fti
another one. seems they travel in groups. can't do it on your own thread? or is it the current drifted your chaps here? regards PS:Oh I still alive.
Great that you are still alive fti... What can I say
Did I do something wrong in your thread?>

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #41,992
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:20am Aug 14, 2013 7:20am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Great that you are still alive fti... What can I say Did I do something wrong in your thread?> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM0zINtulhM
same as in trading, nothing right or wrong.
just maybe unpleasant. going against the grains.

but is your choices.
this a public thread.
You are welcomed to sit here have a rigidity fight. if yu so wish.
by the way when you surf, normally you land in the bottom of the beach, flat on your face??

by the way , why don't you sell your house and go trade bond bills in the money markets, forex may not be your cup.
Then you will be showing money traders forex charts ?



regards
  • #41,993
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:24am Aug 14, 2013 7:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} same as in trading, nothing right or wrong. just maybe unpleasant. going against the grains. but is your choices. this a public thread. You are welcomed to sit here have a rigidity fight. regards
So someone asks a question and you are the only one that is allowed to answer and or confuse it?
Do you not agree with what I wrote.. Was it to rigid? Is it not beneficial to understand how conventional wisdom works?
I don't understand your logic it seems you are unhappy unless people kiss your feet and worship the ground you walk on..

So instead of trying to share what I believe to be true maybe the thread would benefit from this instead:

Hey chief, you're the greatest chief,,, everything you say is gospel chief

Sorry for being out of line.. How so very un rigid of me
Time hides Nothing
  • #41,994
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:27am Aug 14, 2013 7:27am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} So someone asks a question and you are the only one that is allowed to answer and or confuse it? Do you not agree with what I wrote.. Was it to rigid? Is it not beneficial to understand how conventional wisdom works? I don't understand your logic it seems you are unhappy unless people kiss your feet and worship the ground you walk on.. So instead of trying to share what I believe to be true maybe the thread would benefit from this instead: Hey chief, you're the greatest chief,,, everything you say is gospel chief Sorry for being...
What you sharing?
showing forex traders bond charts.
go show bond traders forex charts.

Ya they both in the treasuries. i used manage em both.
but apples is apples oranges is oranges.
They both fruits, but they different .

Come back only when you can tell them apart.
even newbies can.


regards
  • #41,995
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:31am Aug 14, 2013 7:31am
Quoting fti
{quote} What you sharing? showing forex traders bond charts. go show bond traders forex charts. Ya they both in the treasuries.:0 i used manage em both. but apples is apples oranges is oranges. They both fruits, but they different . Come back only when you can tell them apart. regards
Matthew 16:27
, and then he will repay each person according to what he has done.
  • #41,996
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:33am Aug 14, 2013 7:33am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Matthew 16:27 , and then he will repay each person according to what he has done.

ya ya , even satan quotes and twist.
i can see from your avatar, thanks.

You will be rewarded.

regards
  • #41,997
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:35am Aug 14, 2013 7:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} same as in trading, nothing right or wrong. just maybe unpleasant. going against the grains. but is your choices. this a public thread. You are welcomed to sit here have a rigidity fight. if yu so wish. by the way when you surf, normally you land in the bottom of the beach, flat on your face?? by the way , why don't you sell your house and go trade bond bills in the money markets, forex may not be your cup. Then you will be showing money traders forex charts ? regards
Bonds influence currencies - it's called fundamentals I think
  • #41,998
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:41am Aug 14, 2013 7:41am
bad usd figs.

ya ya so does gold, equities, commodities, black gold +++++ go chart everything.

if you no understand.
then here a free lesson.
rates are macro economics, monetary policies. understand?
unless you managing the funds in yards usd, you have no business being there.


regards
  • #41,999
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:45am Aug 14, 2013 7:45am
Quoting fti
bad usd figs. ya ya so does gold, equities, commodities, black gold +++++ go chart everything. if you no understand. then here a free lesson. rates are macro economics, monetary policies. understand? unless you managing the funds in yards usd, you have no business being there. regards
Yep you got it - it's called fundamentals.
  • #42,000
  • Edited 8:01am Aug 14, 2013 7:46am | Edited 8:01am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Yep you got it - it's called fundamentals.
no is called propaganda.
when heli or the boj or the cbs move rates forex listens.
otherwise if over night rates go to 100% maybe there will be impact.
and you not need a chart to see the impact.

In the 1st place , here another free lesson.
no one in money markets chart the price moves, they chart the yield curve.
even a junior dealer knows that.

regards

you go do rates presentation with a rates price chart and you will be laughing stock in any treasury.
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