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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #641
  • Aug 14, 2013 2:46am Aug 14, 2013 2:46am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Sorry, I do not like the look of either of them. USD/JPY is going to be trading into the VBRN and a ppz. As for USD/CAD, looks like this area has already flipped to resistance. {image} {image}
Pinbar!

The ppz you have signed on your USDJPY is also on my chart with two purple line (two monthly HCR/LCS) and I mentioned that when the triangle is broken and this ppz is broken we can get space for a trade. Yeah I forgot to mention 100 vBRN but of course I would wait for breaking this 100 vBRN also.

And why don't you like USDZAR?
  • #642
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:01am Aug 14, 2013 3:01am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Pulled out for a half bar loss. 8600 seems to be resisting, and we know how the wick can then answer the question of the path of least resistance. I was anticipating a quick burst above 8600, and although this is far from over I am out now that I know I don't have what I had expected off this one. {image} g.
Ghous!

On EURGBP may I ask why had you ignored the monthly HCR directly above the huge pinbar before you opened the trade?
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  • #643
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:07am Aug 14, 2013 3:07am
Quoting ghous
This is a trade I am. EUR/GBP long right off the proven PPZ. We have implicit divergence and confluence with a trend line. An ideal entry it seems was bang at the close of the fake out bar (would have gotten in a few pips earlier) but I wanted to see through the first few hours of the day for any hints of a wick filling activity (we are near a swing high anyways) but so far this has remained true to the bullish order flow that created the wick. No set final take profit on this one as yet. As is often the case I'd like to see how this unfolds before...
Yeah, I also was racking my brain over EG also but, somehow did just not like those bar highs on the left in consolidation.
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  • #644
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:11am Aug 14, 2013 3:11am
Quoting Microtrader_
{quote} Pinbar! The ppz you have signed on your USDJPY is also on my chart with two purple line (two monthly HCR/LCS) and I mentioned that when the triangle is broken and this ppz is broken we can get space for a trade. Yeah I forgot to mention 100 vBRN but of course I would wait for breaking this 100 vBRN also. And why don't you like USDZAR?

You know, this really is not what Jarroo has been teaching.
I also, do not like this wedge.
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  • #645
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:58am Aug 14, 2013 3:58am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hmmm. Mike said on the james16 thread that he doesn't find this setup appealing due to lack of space. Could you guys take some negatives on the traid? (Cause personally I would have entered too...) Thanks, Stephen
That wouldn't pass Mike's filters even after a million tries. Simply because as a pin bar trade that was pretty mediocre.

I took it more so as a fake out and was looking for a quick break above, but the 8600 held nicely hence the early exit.

If price had shot above 8600 it was then pretty logical to expect it to keep climbing.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #646
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:58am Aug 14, 2013 3:58am
Quoting Helius
I promise I will also show you my failed trades. However, most recently I could not find a level that did not work. Today, EUR/USD is presenting us with a nice support&resistance flip. Almost at second target and almost time to call it a week with 2/2 {image}
Hoa! Some great work there Helius my friend.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #647
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:00am Aug 14, 2013 4:00am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hmmm. Mike said on the james16 thread that he doesn't find this setup appealing due to lack of space. Could you guys take some negatives on the traid? (Cause personally I would have entered too...) Thanks, Stephen
Hey Micro,

I don't watch HCR/LCS levels to that extent. For me though, the 8600 was always going to be the real test (which price failed at) and here it lines up with your monthly HCR too.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #648
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:02am Aug 14, 2013 4:02am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Yeah, I also was racking my brain over EG also but, somehow did just not like those bar highs on the left in consolidation. {image}
What really got me hooked here was the nice PPZ that the fake out bar was off of and the trend line confluence. As repeatedly mentioned above, a move above the 8600 in an affirmative manner is what I was looking for.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #649
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:15am Aug 14, 2013 4:15am
Quoting ghous
{quote} What really got me hooked here was the nice PPZ that the fake out bar was off of and the trend line confluence. As repeatedly mentioned above, a move above the 8600 in an affirmative manner is what I was looking for. g.
Yes, it was a really nice PPZ, that is also what caught my attention.

Anyway, got to give a little back sometimes, I know you are still well ahead.

I am interested in NZD/USD on this rally back.
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  • #650
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:58am Aug 14, 2013 4:58am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Agree Steve, I was pretty close to pulling the trigger on this one but I too feel the cons over weigh the pros here. Space would be my biggest concerns with all those upper wicks coming in the way and just the general mess we are in. g.

No doubt we are both glad we passed. The 1.4600 area looks interesting.
I actually am starting to think looking only at the daily setups, allows me time to work out the good setups from the bad.
That said, I have yet to find a good one.
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  • #651
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:08am Aug 14, 2013 5:08am
Depending on the close, USD/CHF looks like it could be interesting.
Hope we don't get a bearish PB.
Never thought, I would see the day, I would say that.
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  • #652
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:41am Aug 14, 2013 8:41am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} No doubt we are both glad we passed. The 1.4600 area looks interesting. I actually am starting to think looking only at the daily setups, allows me time to work out the good setups from the bad. That said, I have yet to find a good one. {image}
Waiting for your cherries is hands down the toughest job when it comes to trading the higher time frames. Its very unnatural to not be antsy in the dry periods in between. But I believe its also the most critical skill that you must master if you eventually want to stand out in the long term. I haven't totally mastered it myself yet either, but every day I get closer to my targets and that is all that matters.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #653
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:52pm Aug 14, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} You know, this really is not what Jarroo has been teaching. I also, do not like this wedge. {image}
Thanks pinbar I understand what you mean.
  • #654
  • Edited 9:40pm Aug 14, 2013 5:15pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Waiting for your cherries is hands down the toughest job when it comes to trading the higher time frames. Its very unnatural to not be antsy in the dry periods in between. But I believe its also the most critical skill that you must master if you eventually want to stand out in the long term. I haven't totally mastered it myself yet either, but every day I get closer to my targets and that is all that matters. g.
Yes, I am finding this is the case but, the TF is also teaching me something important about being objectively analytical.
Rather than, jumping in guns blazing before looking at the setup in an objective manner.
Here are another two on my watch list.
Totally agree that, scanning the charts daily and just picking ones that may soon come into play, is the way to go.
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  • #655
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:30pm Aug 14, 2013 5:30pm
I am just going to watch Gold as, there is very little space to the FTA with that consolidation just below the minor SP.
Still, we can still learn from it and that is truly worth more than this commodity.
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  • #656
  • Edited 1:54am Aug 15, 2013 12:41am | Edited 1:54am
Long EUR/USD but with a very small position! Why? Because the way we traded back into the level is not what I'd like to see. The level is A+ but the retest is not that great.
For now you can clearly see that market is looking at the level as well. I find it impressive time and time again to see how price reacts to the lines drawn in the sand...

Update: Took 20% off the table and pulled the S/L a little closer. It's a risk free trade now and price is moving higher. 3/3 this week
Update 2 : S/L pulled higher. Now a risk free trade turns into a gurantee winner.
Update 3: Exited the trade. Not giving away is an important characteristic. A small winner is always worth more than a small loser.

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #657
  • Edited 2:35am Aug 15, 2013 2:10am | Edited 2:35am
EUR/NZD & NZD/USD both seem to coming into play.
Will wait till today's bar closes to decide but, I am leaning towards the NZD/USD.
Mainly because of the massive resistance we have at the top and the fact that, we also have the WLCS is just a couple of pips above it.
The 365 & 150 EMA also have me leaning this way, they also give me a logical area to place the SL.
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  • #658
  • Aug 15, 2013 11:00am Aug 15, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Pinbar
Depending on the close, USD/CHF looks like it could be interesting. Hope we don't get a bearish PB. Never thought, I would see the day, I would say that. {image}
Yikes! We have more than a bearish pin bar. lol

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #659
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:15pm Aug 15, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Yikes! We have more than a bearish pin bar. lol {image} g.
Yeah, it sucks big time.

Waited and waited. then my expectations were dashed by the bars.

Ah well, there will always be another setup.

The good part of it is, we could predict that bearish PA before it even formed.
A lot of people would envy that, and this is what J16 taught us.
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  • #660
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:20pm Aug 15, 2013 5:20pm
Talking of another setup.
If it finds support at 1.56000 as I think it will, we could have a setup next week.
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