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Firebird EA, please test this one, it is one of the greats

  • #261
  • Jun 23, 2006 1:19pm Jun 23, 2006 1:19pm
Quoting BenQ
Hendrick,

What if we were to create an area where Firebird did not issue trades. What I have in mind is a second, wider envelope around the initial .05 envelope -- the thought being that if prices travels to this second enveleope it is more likely in a trend and contrary to the best use of Firebird.

As long as price ranges within a certain area, Firebird cannot be beat. It's when it gets out of this area that trading activity should cease until it returns.
Great thinking Ben! I will use your suggestion during the weekend when I will investigate the trades of Firebird from this week.
  • #262
  • Jun 23, 2006 1:55pm Jun 23, 2006 1:55pm
Something like this: The inside envelope is at .05 The outer envelope is .2 I'm not saying .2 is an ideal number, but you can see when it strayed into the .2 envelope Firebird trades were ill-advised until it returned to the optimal ranging behavior.Sorry, but having trouble uploading a picture. I get an error message that the picture is too big. But I think you understand my idea.
  • #263
  • Jun 23, 2006 1:58pm Jun 23, 2006 1:58pm
Here's the picture I was trying to send.
Attached Image
  • #264
  • Jun 23, 2006 4:38pm Jun 23, 2006 4:38pm
Hey Hendrick, I share your enthusiasm. Keep me posted.

Today was actually a good day. I had 6 winning trades in a row. However, they are still not enough to cover the multitude of losses from yesterday.

Quoting Hendrick
Hi Ben,

Some parts of Firebird are still a mistery to me. But I'm determined to discover as much as I can about all aspects of Firebird and to bring it back to its basics. It may take a while but I'm convinced that in the end it will be turn out to be a one of the best EA's ever made.
  • #265
  • Edited 4:52pm Jun 23, 2006 4:40pm | Edited 4:52pm
Hendrick. ANy particular reason why you are returning to TP 18 and SL 42? Looking forward to read your results next week. I am staying the course with the current settings for next week.

From my history this week I see that I had 17 wins and 7 losses from all the trades opened between GMT 11h and GMT 20h (roughly the US session). That is 7 AM EST to 4 PM EST.

Quoting Hendrick
It depends on the relation between SL and TP. Until now it's still my opinion that a SL of 52 to a TP of 26 is still better than a SL=200 and a TP=20. Next week I will return to TP=18 and SL=42 and I will run 2 demo's: one without time filter and one with the following trade hours 8:00-12:00, 13:00-15:00, 16:00-18:00 and 19:00-22:00 (GMT+2). I will use EDEA for this. I think that this time filter is essential to improve the results of EDEA. Next Friday I will post the results.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
  • #266
  • Jun 24, 2006 12:48am Jun 24, 2006 12:48am
Quoting Yardie
Hendrick. ANy particular reason why you are returning to TP 18 and SL 42? Looking forward to read your results next week. I am staying the course with the current settings for next week.

From my history this week I see that I had 17 wins and 7 losses from all the trades opened between GMT 11h and GMT 20h (roughly the US session). That is 7 AM EST to 4 PM EST.
Hi Yardie,

17 wins and 7 losses. So with a TP of 26 and a SL of 52 you should have a surplus of 3 winning trades. Not bad at all if you take in account the last 2 days of this week. What are your settings? I see that you only trade during the US session. Do you think it's possible for you to run 2 demo-accounts next week with the same settings and let run one of them for 24h and the other from 11h until 20h? I will do the same but with different times. At the end of the week we can see if it make sense to disable Firebird during certain parts of the week.
  • #267
  • Jun 24, 2006 1:33am Jun 24, 2006 1:33am
I am not planning of giving up that easily. i am still testing the lorger stop loss as posted by wackena. These setting seem to be doing ok. Movements like the last few days do not seem to happen very often so with proper MM we may be able to survive such drawdowns.

The EA does look promising and maybe you are right. Perhaps it needs the time filter. i plan to also stick with the settings for a while longer. i am also running it on 30 min charts.

One question i do have is. has anyone found EA's to be a profitable way of trading - ie. in the long term. perhaps it is better to run several different EAs at the same time to try to even things up a bit. just a thought.

Wiz.
  • #268
  • Jun 24, 2006 3:36am Jun 24, 2006 3:36am
Hey Everyone,

I've been watching Firebird this last week same as the rest of you, but I've also been speaking with some other traders about completely different topics and I'm convinced that Firebird is literally that - it turns your account into a phoenix - in other words it burns it to the ground and then you have to reincarnate your trading account with new capital.

The idea of larger stop losses scares me! Look at a daily chart and you will see that the market often moves 700+pips in one direction for a month or more. Yes there are retracements in there - but the last few days show us what can happen - and it ain't good.

What do I propose? What about defining that underlying trend - reducing the envelope size to a rediculously small level, minimizing the pipstep, and only allowing Firebird to open trades in the direction of that overall trend?

This way we could mimimize our stop loss and maximize our target profit - which seems to make way more sense as right now Firebird is set up to take a bunch of minimal wins, followed by HUGE losses. We should be aiming to do the exact opposite.

Now - I could be 100% wrong - and for the record I have not tested this method. Just wanted to share my thoughts.

Quoting The Wizard of Oz
I am not planning of giving up that easily. i am still testing the lorger stop loss as posted by wackena.
  • #269
  • Jun 24, 2006 8:57am Jun 24, 2006 8:57am
Hi,

Benq, can you please post the document which u r referring to in ur post #245....considering the recent losses in firebird, i am trying to rework it and i guess the document would be useful.



Thanks.
  • #270
  • Jun 24, 2006 9:14am Jun 24, 2006 9:14am
Here it is.What about applying something as simple as an ADX filter with a < or > variable. If the market started trending strongly, all trading would cease and open positions closed until it started ranging again. just thinking out loud here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Firebird document 0[1].27.zip   99 KB | 354 downloads
  • #271
  • Jun 24, 2006 10:06am Jun 24, 2006 10:06am
Hendrick, the settings are yours TP of 26 and SL of 52. I am running the EA 24 hours per day and looking in the history to see the opening times. Based on that history, I had 17 wins and 7 losses for the orders opened during the US session. My record is much worse for the 24 hour history. By the way, I started the EA on Wednesday morning US time.



Quoting Hendrick
Hi Yardie,

17 wins and 7 losses. So with a TP of 26 and a SL of 52 you should have a surplus of 3 winning trades. Not bad at all if you take in account the last 2 days of this week. What are your settings? I see that you only trade during the US session. Do you think it's possible for you to run 2 demo-accounts next week with the same settings and let run one of them for 24h and the other from 11h until 20h? I will do the same but with different times. At the end of the week we can see if it make sense to disable Firebird during certain parts of the week.
  • #272
  • Jun 24, 2006 10:42am Jun 24, 2006 10:42am
Quoting lonespruce
Hey Everyone,

I've been watching Firebird this last week same as the rest of you, but I've also been speaking with some other traders about completely different topics and I'm convinced that Firebird is literally that - it turns your account into a phoenix - in other words it burns it to the ground and then you have to reincarnate your trading account with new capital.

The idea of larger stop losses scares me! Look at a daily chart and you will see that the market often moves 700+pips in one direction for a month or more. Yes there are retracements in there - but the last few days show us what can happen - and it ain't good.

What do I propose? What about defining that underlying trend - reducing the envelope size to a rediculously small level, minimizing the pipstep, and only allowing Firebird to open trades in the direction of that overall trend?

This way we could mimimize our stop loss and maximize our target profit - which seems to make way more sense as right now Firebird is set up to take a bunch of minimal wins, followed by HUGE losses. We should be aiming to do the exact opposite.

Now - I could be 100% wrong - and for the record I have not tested this method. Just wanted to share my thoughts.
Let me show you the results from 13-6 until 20-6 (see attachment). In this period we have 95 winners and 28 losers. With a SL of 42 and a TP of 18 this means we have a surplus 31 winners (approximately). When I should have used the following time filters: 8-12, 13-15, 16-18, 19-23 there would be 85 winners and 17 losers Again with a SL=42 and a TP=18 this means a surplus of 46 winners. So in a stable market Firebird will operate excellent. Agree? Now take the last week. A sharp downfall of the GBPUSD (for example). And what does Firebird; it's going long several times because after a downfall it's expecting a retracement. In this case; wrong! The downfall sustained resulting in several losses. These things will happen all the time. We can't predict when these things will happen and how long it will takes before a retracement will start. But what we can do is to tell Firebird to step aside during a really volatile market. Stop placing trades and wait for the storm to calm down. If we can (and we need a programmer to realize this) it is in my conviction one of the best EA's. What do you think about it?<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

<o> </o>
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Firebirdv63G.pdf   35 KB | 489 downloads
  • #273
  • Jun 24, 2006 12:13pm Jun 24, 2006 12:13pm
benq, thanks for the document...any idea what program i have to use to open it..cos it automatically opens in IE and all that i see is junk...
  • #274
  • Jun 24, 2006 12:15pm Jun 24, 2006 12:15pm
having an ADX filter seems a good idea...as benq suggested, the idea is to somehow make firebird recognise that it is in the midst of a strong trend and make it adjust accordingly....so how do we make sure that it knows that it is in a strong trend....usually all EAs work well in a trending environment and dont work so well in a ranging market...but firebird does the opposite.....looks interesting....
  • #275
  • Jun 24, 2006 12:58pm Jun 24, 2006 12:58pm
ok guys....i am planning to plug in a adx filter and see what happens....can someone tell me what settings are the best so far (currency pair, settings and chart time period) so that i can plug inb the adx filter, put in the best settings and see what happens......
  • #276
  • Jun 24, 2006 3:08pm Jun 24, 2006 3:08pm
Quoting ns_karthik
benq, thanks for the document...any idea what program i have to use to open it..cos it automatically opens in IE and all that i see is junk...
It's just an html document. Should open right up. Does anyone esle have it in another form?
  • #277
  • Jun 24, 2006 3:23pm Jun 24, 2006 3:23pm
Hendrick,
Can you please post your latest version of EDEA and instructions on how to use it? Is it an indicator, or does it somehow get plugged into Firebird? Is it referencing platform time or my computer time. I'm running platforms that are GMT and GMT +2 but I'm in EST, which is I believe GMT -4. All a bit confusing. Thx.


Quoting Hendrick
Let me show you the results from 13-6 until 20-6 (see attachment). In this period we have 95 winners and 28 losers. With a SL of 42 and a TP of 18 this means we have a surplus 31 winners (approximately). When I should have used the following time filters: 8-12, 13-15, 16-18, 19-23 there would be 85 winners and 17 losers Again with a SL=42 and a TP=18 this means a surplus of 46 winners. So in a stable market Firebird will operate excellent. Agree? Now take the last week. A sharp downfall of the GBPUSD (for example). And what does Firebird; it's going long several times because after a downfall it's expecting a retracement. In this case; wrong! The downfall sustained resulting in several losses. These things will happen all the time. We can't predict when these things will happen and how long it will takes before a retracement will start. But what we can do is to tell Firebird to step aside during a really volatile market. Stop placing trades and wait for the storm to calm down. If we can (and we need a programmer to realize this) it is in my conviction one of the best EA's. What do you think about it?<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

<o></o>
  • #278
  • Jun 24, 2006 3:37pm Jun 24, 2006 3:37pm
NS Karthic,
Can you open this one?

Quoting ns_karthik
benq, thanks for the document...any idea what program i have to use to open it..cos it automatically opens in IE and all that i see is junk...
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Firebird document.zip   9 KB | 349 downloads
  • #279
  • Jun 24, 2006 4:11pm Jun 24, 2006 4:11pm
I think our search for the holy grail is leading us down the garden path with a blindfold on!

The larger moves that we are trying to avoid with this EA are the ones that we should be trying to profit from - I mean we could have made 500 pips in a matter of a couple of days on the majors. Why are we "trying" to avoid that??

Maybe I'm crazy - but we first need to address the problem of Firebird - its averaging down on losing positions - then we'll have a strong base. But then again - maybe I'm just crazy.

Quoting Hendrick
Let me show you the results from 13-6 until 20-6 (see attachment). In this period we have 95 winners and 28 losers. With a SL of 42 and a TP of 18 this means we have a surplus 31 winners (approximately). When I should have used the following time filters: 8-12, 13-15, 16-18, 19-23 there would be 85 winners and 17 losers Again with a SL=42 and a TP=18 this means a surplus of 46 winners. So in a stable market Firebird will operate excellent. Agree? Now take the last week. A sharp downfall of the GBPUSD (for example). And what does Firebird; it's going long several times because after a downfall it's expecting a retracement. In this case; wrong! The downfall sustained resulting in several losses. These things will happen all the time. We can't predict when these things will happen and how long it will takes before a retracement will start. But what we can do is to tell Firebird to step aside during a really volatile market. Stop placing trades and wait for the storm to calm down. If we can (and we need a programmer to realize this) it is in my conviction one of the best EA's. What do you think about it?<o></o>

<o></o>
  • #280
  • Jun 24, 2006 6:04pm Jun 24, 2006 6:04pm
Lonespruce, that would be an entirely different EA. Firebird was never meant to be trend following.

There are plenty of other EA's and methods that are designed to exploit trends and I'm sure there's threads here somewhere. I think this thread is taking the path of trying to improve Firebird.

The question to ask then is do you want to write an entirely different EA ignoring Firebird's strength (ranging markets) and instead focus on a completely different approach to take pips out of the market. It's much easier to take pips out 10-20 at a time than 500 at a time -- which is why I'm still focused on Firebird.
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