Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 51 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,001
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:22am Aug 13, 2013 2:22am
Quoting wbh
Here is my UJ trade from D1 down to H1{image}{image}{image}
Nice trade wbh

Congratulations
  • #1,002
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:24am Aug 13, 2013 2:24am
Hello panoramia,

I don't want to sound like a broken record but thank you for your thread, your videos, your indicators, your time, all of your posts and explanations. They have been such an eye opener for me and my trading. I have only been reading this thread for about 3 weeks in detail starting with your very first post, going through my charts at the time you posted yours and analyzing everything you have said. I have been trading S/D as i learn it and doing wonderful. I now have (I think) a grasp on it and will be posting charts in the future. I look forward to getting your personal input on the forum. I haven't quite finished reading up to this page yet and i will continue to read until i am caught up so i don't miss anything or ask questions that have already been asked or answered.
thanks again Ted
  • #1,003
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:25am Aug 13, 2013 2:25am
Hi

My second attempt buying eur jpy.

First was a loss of 32 pips.

Price hits weekly and daily demand, reacts forming new h4 demand.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur jpy d.PNG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur jpy h4.PNG Size: 113 KB
  • #1,004
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:51am Aug 13, 2013 2:51am
Hi Sekbor!

Congratulations on the eurjpy second attempt. It's good to see that you are trying a second or even a third time. Sometimes the first one won't work. You mind till tell you "Hey, don't trade that pair in the same direction, you already had a loss". Don't listen to those thoughts, because many times the 2nd or the 3rd will be the runners that will recover the losses from 1st and 2nd attempt and become THE runner!

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Hi My second attempt buying eur jpy. First was a loss of 32 pips. Price hits weekly and daily demand, reacts forming new h4 demand. {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,005
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:00am Aug 13, 2013 3:00am
Welcome to the thread Quezoy, and thanks for your message! I hope that you will not be only enjoying the indicator but also the number of pips that will be making if you are consistently applying the SD methodology! That would make me and others in the thread very happy!

Alfonso
Quoting Quezoy
Alfonso, excelent info. Thank you for all your efforts. And your rectangle indy... love it
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,006
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:09am Aug 13, 2013 3:09am
Hi Boby!

It was a brand new H1 supply level within a D1 supply area on EURUSD. That was the confirmation. That level's score is poor yes, but we are at a D1 supply. I've forward tested those kind of levels at higher timeframe SD areas and they work really well. Sometimes the first attempt can be a loss, but many times it's the source of a nice runner. Since trading is all a probability game, we just have to play that game. Sometimes you lose, others you win, but having 40% or even less winning ratio will get you in the money if your target is at least 3:1. Just think about it.

I apply scoring on set & forget, not on confirmation trades. I believe that Peter (outapips) mentioned it in a previous post. If the level that confirms the zone is got a nice score, it will be even better But if it does not, no problem, I will go for it because we are at a higher timeframe SD area, and price normally reacts at those areas in the opposite direction.

Hope that helps!

Alfonso


Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Hello Alfonso! What kind of confirmation was that? If we score this level it will obtain very poor score. Some confirmation like that work and some not. Thanks, you do a great job! Sorry for quoting wrong post. 966 is the correct post. EURUSD h1 confirmation
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,007
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:13am Aug 13, 2013 3:13am
Hello Caravan!

Supply and demand works on any asset, instrument or symbol. Supply and demand is the force that governs the markets and the world itself.
So yes is the answer to your question, the methodology will work with Crude oil, Brent and WTI as well as commodities, metals, indexes, futures, equities, etc.

Alfonso

Quoting caravan
I can use this technique with Crude Oil, Brent, WTI? Thank you and good job I am following this thread with a lot of passion
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,008
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:18am Aug 13, 2013 3:18am
Thanks for your message and contributing to the thread HDA, I am sure that if you keep on contributing many of us will learn from your trading experience.

Thanks for your kind words as well! Really nice trades!

Alfonso
Quoting HDA
{quote} @panoramia: You are most welcome. You remind me so much of myself, with a willingness to share your knowledge of trading the forex, in a respectable manner and with a very open mind. I do hope that for the traders who develop an interest to read my posts, will eventually find your Trading Journal and you will eventually have greater participation in this thread. One good thing that emanates from being swing traders is that the quality of the participants are like minded. Last week Friday, August 9, 2013 my limit order to go long was triggered...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,009
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:03am Aug 13, 2013 4:03am
This is my trade from yesterday EURAUD H1. We are closer to daily demand with h1 fresh demand so i have this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh1.png Size: 159 KB
  • #1,010
  • Edited 4:44am Aug 13, 2013 4:30am | Edited 4:44am
Congratulations on that EURAUD long trade Boby!

Just one thing to remember. Confirmation trades need a higher timeframe SD area to be hit. Your trade is going ur way, which is great, but I just wanted to point out that even if the long trade is working, the D1 demand level has not been hit, then we shouldn't wait for confirmation. The higher timeframe SD area needs to be hit, it will almost always finally hit it when you look at the charts.

Also remember that we're on a monthly supply area that was hit a week ago and price has dropped 500+ pips from it. Buying when Monthly supply is in control is not high odds for a long, it's for a short. Could price absorb the Monthly supply? Yes, but I believe that can take a while. Buying is not something I would like to do when we're at Monthly supply.

Take a look at the monthly chart attached to see what I mean. There can be long opportunities, but I don't see them as higher odds. If anything, it has to hit fresh D1 demand areas and use confirmation trades.

I do have a limit sell order at a H4 speedbump supply. Let's see if price can reach that area and respect the trendline direction.

Hope that the rationale makes sense and it's logical to you.
Alfonso

Quoting bobyv87
This is my trade from yesterday EURAUD H1. We are closer to daily demand with h1 fresh demand so i have this {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 132 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,011
  • Aug 13, 2013 5:10am Aug 13, 2013 5:10am
Hi,
This is my GBPAUD
W1 price is very close to supply area
http://screencast.com/t/h6RHe9x2S

D1 there is an area of supply
http://screencast.com/t/1j7f0fwfvz

H1 my entry
http://screencast.com/t/2sDxt4tNno

Alessandro
  • #1,012
  • Aug 13, 2013 6:46am Aug 13, 2013 6:46am
Quoting impulsewaver
Hello panoramia, I don't want to sound like a broken record but thank you for your thread, your videos, your indicators, your time, all of your posts and explanations. They have been such an eye opener for me and my trading. I have only been reading this thread for about 3 weeks in detail starting with your very first post, going through my charts at the time you posted yours and analyzing everything you have said. I have been trading S/D as i learn it and doing wonderful. I now have (I think) a grasp on it and will be posting charts in the future....
Ditto except that I am still on the first page going through the videos minute by minute. I'm starting to see how everything Alfonso is teaching is linked together. Wonderful to have found this thread.

Thanks so much Alfonso and all of you who are already accomplished with the method and posting your enlightened understanding here too.
  • #1,013
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:03am Aug 13, 2013 7:03am
You are most welcome to the thread Ted. I'm glad that you have found it. I believe some of the traders here are beginning to grasp the methodology quite well and already taken some good trades with it. Not all trades will be winners of course, but the most important thing will be that you will be aware where you are located in the higher timeframes and what you should be doing (going long or short). After some weeks everything will start coming together and after a few months it will be like watching Matrix, it will all be logical and common sense. But it takes time, don't dispair. Supply and demand is the inner force that controls the world itself, if we don't go against it, we'll do much better in our trading.

Feel free to join the webinars by sending me a private message, but you first need to post some messages in order to have the capability of sending private messages I believe!

Happy trading to you Ted!
Alfonso

Quoting impulsewaver
Hello panoramia, I don't want to sound like a broken record but thank you for your thread, your videos, your indicators, your time, all of your posts and explanations. They have been such an eye opener for me and my trading. I have only been reading this thread for about 3 weeks in detail starting with your very first post, going through my charts at the time you posted yours and analyzing everything you have said. I have been trading S/D as i learn it and doing wonderful. I now have (I think) a grasp on it and will be posting charts in the future....
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,014
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:19am Aug 13, 2013 7:19am
usd chf price hits my target +85 pips, but i don't know if i could stay in this trade a litle big longer to the supply area market with arrow.
What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf d.PNG Size: 103 KB
  • #1,015
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:28am Aug 13, 2013 7:28am
I was trying to look for a trade setup on H4 on NZDUSD, but I arrived a bit late.

I've been trying to go long on H4 demand on NZDUSD while on holidays since it started to rally but I had no opportunity, I had a couple of set & forget longs but none of them triggered, pity. The only one available was when price had already hit the D1 supply area (yellow trendline). That would be too high to buy, so the long trade was no longer valid.

The ascending trendline is no longer valid for 2 reasons:

  1. D1 supply has been hit. Once a D1 SD area is hit the trendline is of no use, because on higher timeframes price normally reacts and does tend to break any trend
  2. Even if u used the trendline, it would have been broken solidly now with some full candles below it

There was a nice 26 pips supply area to short at based on confirmation but I was not there, price has dropped 60 pips already from that H4 supply area at D1 supply. I was not able to capture it, don't know if any of you that trade NZUSD managed to do it.

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 159 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,016
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:32am Aug 13, 2013 7:32am
Quoting panoramia
I was trying to look for a trade setup on H4 on NZDUSD, but I arrived a bit late. I've been trying to go long on H4 demand on NZDUSD while on holidays since it started to rally but I had no opportunity, I had a couple of set & forget longs but none of them triggered, pity. The only one available was when price had already hit the D1 supply area (yellow trendline). That would be too high to buy, so the long trade was no longer valid. The ascending trendline is no longer valid for 2 reasons: D1 supply has been hit. Once a D1 SD area is hit the trendline...
I was trying to get short on aud usd. The same situation, weekly supply area.
Price missed the entry point by 3 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd h4.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #1,017
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:35am Aug 13, 2013 7:35am
UCHF hitting demand as well as descending TL, could be a good short, bull momentum still strong though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfdaily.png Size: 63 KB
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #1,018
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:37am Aug 13, 2013 7:37am
Quoting ochinkumar
"EID MUBARAK "all the people of this thread.

price in target +116 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd h4.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #1,019
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:00am Aug 13, 2013 8:00am
EURUSD short hit my target. Entry was on confirmation (see the original post below): brand new H1 supply area (now green because it's non-fresh after my entry). Area was like 17 pips risk, almost 8% benefit. Trade has more potential to keep on dropping but I didn't want to be greedy.

I could have moved SL above the previous supply area, but I'm happy with it.
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 61 KB


Quoting panoramia
Take a look at this H1 confirmation short trade on EURUSD. Price was at a non fresh D1 supply zone, departure from that D1 1st pullback was great, but no original level. We then wait for a confirmation trade on H1 or H4, that is, a brand new supply level within that D1 non-fresh supply level (with a great departure), and set the limit sell order a couple of pips below the proximal line. This is a similar trade to the others taken by some of you on Audusd, Audchf, etc. As you can see, it's the same logic over and over! Alfonso {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,020
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:07am Aug 13, 2013 8:07am
Target hit on USDJPY 98.20 , +133
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4.png Size: 56 KB
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