Disliked{quote} I got in long at 3325.... targetting 3440... stops at 3305..Ignored
Wherever you go, there you are.
- #4,281
- Aug 12, 2013 2:33am Aug 12, 2013 2:33am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2013 | 4,068 Posts
Wherever you go, there you are.
- #4,282
- Edited 3:09am Aug 12, 2013 2:44am | Edited 3:09am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
theDHT view:
EJ Swing Trade Update (link to previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post6881441)
Background/Theme:
The high point on this chart (c 132.8) was a retracement to the 88% fib of the entire prior down swing, the fact that prices were contained at this level implies a bearish bias. It is also a key component of a Bearish Gartley (easier to see on daily charts). Some people make the case that a Gartley must be a 61.8% and 78.6%, I take a less rigid view, to me a Gartley is validated if two fib levels are hit within a larger fib swing, however the sequence must be shallow to deep. In this instance, it was 61.8% to 88%, which is OK with me. Based on this analysis, the Gartley has a target price at the 127% fib extension at c 122.7, and I would be reluctant to take long positions until this level is achieved (or close)
Current:
Looking at this chart, a seasoned eye may spot a reversal pattern forming... I would be reluctant to call it a head and shoulders, but a break and hold below 127.9 could confirm it.
Breach of previous major support is of significance, and it should now serve as resistance on the way back up, same is true of the previous overhead resistance, this should contain the down move and coincide with the Gartley target
We have a new Major and Minor DTL as outlined, and any up move early in the week should be contained by the Zone of DTL's and the Fib clusters (red)
As outlined in my previous update, the bounce we are experiencing came on the back of momentum divergences. If the current up move is contained within the 61.8% level (red), we should expect to see the 161.8% (red) extension in short order, which is at c 125.9, but we also expect a bounce at the 127% (red) which is a confluence zone with 23.6% (gold) long term fib, this is at c 127
My strategy remains to short any bounces, I am holding shorts from: 132.6, 131.6, 129.5, and may take a tactical overweight short position
I apologize in advance that the chart looks a bit crowded, there are many small fib lines in there which may be hard to see
Good Luck!
(note: 4181 tick chart, time not to scale)
EJ Swing Trade Update (link to previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post6881441)
Background/Theme:
The high point on this chart (c 132.8) was a retracement to the 88% fib of the entire prior down swing, the fact that prices were contained at this level implies a bearish bias. It is also a key component of a Bearish Gartley (easier to see on daily charts). Some people make the case that a Gartley must be a 61.8% and 78.6%, I take a less rigid view, to me a Gartley is validated if two fib levels are hit within a larger fib swing, however the sequence must be shallow to deep. In this instance, it was 61.8% to 88%, which is OK with me. Based on this analysis, the Gartley has a target price at the 127% fib extension at c 122.7, and I would be reluctant to take long positions until this level is achieved (or close)
Current:
Looking at this chart, a seasoned eye may spot a reversal pattern forming... I would be reluctant to call it a head and shoulders, but a break and hold below 127.9 could confirm it.
Breach of previous major support is of significance, and it should now serve as resistance on the way back up, same is true of the previous overhead resistance, this should contain the down move and coincide with the Gartley target
We have a new Major and Minor DTL as outlined, and any up move early in the week should be contained by the Zone of DTL's and the Fib clusters (red)
As outlined in my previous update, the bounce we are experiencing came on the back of momentum divergences. If the current up move is contained within the 61.8% level (red), we should expect to see the 161.8% (red) extension in short order, which is at c 125.9, but we also expect a bounce at the 127% (red) which is a confluence zone with 23.6% (gold) long term fib, this is at c 127
My strategy remains to short any bounces, I am holding shorts from: 132.6, 131.6, 129.5, and may take a tactical overweight short position
I apologize in advance that the chart looks a bit crowded, there are many small fib lines in there which may be hard to see
Good Luck!
(note: 4181 tick chart, time not to scale)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #4,283
- Aug 12, 2013 2:55am Aug 12, 2013 2:55am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Many green pips to all of you today.
I will not be around much as I have other matters which need attention.
I just wanted to say, that I enjoy being part of this thread. I have my own thread which is know by quite a few as the thread with no BS tolerated. In fact many a EURUSD troll has been permanently banned for starting crap there. My point is that I do not need to be here, but I choose to be because I have come to respect all of you and I also value your posts.
Let's keep this place nice, social, relaxed and informative for all, shall we? Of course we shall
Bye for now.
I will not be around much as I have other matters which need attention.
I just wanted to say, that I enjoy being part of this thread. I have my own thread which is know by quite a few as the thread with no BS tolerated. In fact many a EURUSD troll has been permanently banned for starting crap there. My point is that I do not need to be here, but I choose to be because I have come to respect all of you and I also value your posts.
Let's keep this place nice, social, relaxed and informative for all, shall we? Of course we shall
Bye for now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #4,285
- Aug 12, 2013 3:46am Aug 12, 2013 3:46am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2013 | 4,068 Posts
Wherever you go, there you are.
- #4,287
- Aug 12, 2013 5:04am Aug 12, 2013 5:04am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
fft:
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #4,288
- Aug 12, 2013 6:12am Aug 12, 2013 6:12am
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 27,245 Posts
EURUSD
now more up again or down?
I'm out with some shorts @ 1.3300 again (#4294).
Wake me up when it's all over
now more up again or down?
I'm out with some shorts @ 1.3300 again (#4294).
Wake me up when it's all over
Inserted Video
- #4,291
- Aug 12, 2013 6:39am Aug 12, 2013 6:39am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #4,292
- Aug 12, 2013 6:49am Aug 12, 2013 6:49am
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 27,245 Posts
Many green pips to all of you today. ...I just wanted to say, that I enjoy being part of this thread... My point is that I do not need to be here, but I choose to be because I have come to respect all of you and I also value your posts.
My sentiments exactly!
...and if you trade the currency pairs like this beautiful african woman plays her guitarre with her left hand it should be also okay for all of us!
Inserted Video
Maybe I do so!
FXcube
- #4,293
- Aug 12, 2013 6:51am Aug 12, 2013 6:51am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #4,294
- Aug 12, 2013 6:52am Aug 12, 2013 6:52am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
{quote} Ok saw EJ as bat. {quote} Now see another one? UJ has 94.696 and EJ I will post. That being said UJ bounce was expected as on 1 hr guess what? Completed a bat at 95.969. {image}
I remember we chatted about this previously on EYI
Getting into all the subtle variations of harmonic patterns can get as unnecessary as all the variations of EWP counts... one can get bogged down in the weeds on definitions...
I call it a Gartley loosely, its a method that has worked well for me over the years, and while I realize the conventional understanding of a Gartley is 61.8 - 78.6, this is actually not true,
Gartleys can come in all the combinations of fibs ratios, the only requirement is lower to higher (as I mentioned in my post)... all the other Harmonic patterns are an attempt to define exactly which variety of Gartley it is... but the names don't matter IMO, only its effectiveness... and of course, the projected price changes based on the ratios...
I know people who wont consider a pattern a Gartley unless it meets certain time criteria... in my view, so much conditionality is really overkill
trading is complicated as it is, I prefer to simplify my life... to each their own
cheers
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #4,295
- Aug 12, 2013 7:04am Aug 12, 2013 7:04am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #4,297
- Aug 12, 2013 7:18am Aug 12, 2013 7:18am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Lost.... | 2,384 Posts
Swinging Trades with regards at weekly's and monthly's candles. EURUSD, Long @ 1.3282 (4x), Targets @ 1.3408 (DR2), @ 1.3395, @ 1.34, ....
Agree. I believe the same with cable since these two currencies follow each other's trend closely. Contrary to Fini's earlier analysis, I'm waiting for cable to reach 1.5630 this week or next two weeks (sorry I don't have a chart to post since I'm at work)...
Lost....
- #4,300
- Aug 12, 2013 8:39am Aug 12, 2013 8:39am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Okay folks... based on the rapid shift in retail crowd positioning, I would say that we are more likely to have a top in place than we were on Friday.
Retail crowds reduced their short positions by 17.9% and increased their long positions by a whopping 44.4% since brokers fired up their servers for the new week.
The same shift in retail crown sentiment can be seen in cable with a reduction of shorts by 7% and an increase in longs by 20.2%
If this trend continues over the next 2 sessions, it will be time to sell all rallies, bring out Maxwell the pig and start barbecuing beef ribs 
Retail crowds reduced their short positions by 17.9% and increased their long positions by a whopping 44.4% since brokers fired up their servers for the new week.
The same shift in retail crown sentiment can be seen in cable with a reduction of shorts by 7% and an increase in longs by 20.2%
If this trend continues over the next 2 sessions, it will be time to sell all rallies, bring out Maxwell the pig and start barbecuing beef ribs
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it