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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

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  • Post #941
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  • Aug 9, 2013 5:46am Aug 9, 2013 5:46am
  •  ashtrader
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 86 Posts
Hi Alfonso,

Thank you for this . Your explanation is crystal clear.

To make the journey easier, how many consistent loser have you had in a row, and how many consistent winners have you had in a row. From what i see you trade about 26 pairs. Do you have a rule of max trades or do you take every setup on every pair.

also on average how many trades do you take per month

Just trying the understand the psychological aspects of this style of trading.

Finally what sort of monthly returns would you expect. We can assume the risk is 1%. In a nutshell it might be good for everyone to understand the journey. Too often we have a string of losers and we stop trading, or we have a string of winners and we over trade. With 26pairs we need to be careful of how much to risk. An event driven risk can easily wipe the account if we risk about 2% per trade.

Thanks
Ash
 
 
  • Post #942
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 6:16am Aug 9, 2013 6:16am
  •  mfinab
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 366 Posts
Hey traders,

I dont know if anyone took AUDCHF LONG this week, seems to perform very well.

BTW, I closed AUDUSD yesterday with a profit of 1:4

Here is AUDCHF
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  • Post #943
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  • Aug 9, 2013 7:28am Aug 9, 2013 7:28am
  •  Olarion1975
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Member | 1,124 Posts
I am planning to scale-in with a speedbump entry on the H4 on EURAUD - drilled down to H1 for smaller SL.
Would you consider the small doji speedbump before as a valid one, also?
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  • Post #944
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:39am Aug 9, 2013 7:29am | Edited 7:39am
  •  mfinab
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 366 Posts
Hi Traders,

I was looking at NZDUSD and we can see that it is coming to a fresh H4 Supply. But if you zoom out a bit, you'll see that this area is a used Daily Supply. But I still think that this area could be a place to go short. Obviously, with a low risk, for me, it would be around 0.3% of my account. Normally I risk about 0.5 to 0.7% of my equity when I find a nice and fresh zone.

Here is some charts of NZDUSD:

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Now let's look at USDX, price is coming from a new higher high Daily, dont you guys think that buyers wont see that? Of course, I dont know if it will sync with NZDUSD.
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  • Post #945
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 7:42am Aug 9, 2013 7:42am
  •  mfinab
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 366 Posts
Hi Olarion1975,

Very nice trade!
Could you please share the indicator you have about the number of pips and profit? It seems to be a very nice indi.



Quoting Olarion1975
Disliked
I am planning to scale-in with a speedbump entry on the H4 on EURAUD - drilled down to H1 for smaller SL. Would you consider the small doji speedbump before as a valid one, also? {image}
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #946
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 7:53am Aug 9, 2013 7:53am
  •  Olarion1975
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Member | 1,124 Posts
Quoting mfinab
Disliked
Hi Olarion1975, Very nice trade! Could you please share the indicator you have about the number of pips and profit? It seems to be a very nice indi. {quote}
Ignored
Thank you. Please find attached the indi. I like it very much.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 luktom_pipsometer-1.1.mq4   9 KB | 448 downloads
 
 
  • Post #947
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 7:55am Aug 9, 2013 7:55am
  •  mfinab
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 366 Posts
Quoting Olarion1975
Disliked
{quote} Thank you. Please find attached the indi. I like it very much. {file}
Ignored
Thanks again Olarion1975,
 
 
  • Post #948
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 8:15am Aug 9, 2013 8:15am
  •  Olarion1975
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Member | 1,124 Posts
Panoramia, first of all...really great thread with awesome information regarding S&D trading. I also like the webinars and other videos very much. Keep it up.

One question: would you consider the blue marked area on the H1 EURAUD chart as a valid speedbump? If no, why not? Thank you...
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  • Post #949
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 8:57am Aug 9, 2013 8:57am
  •  Olarion1975
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Member | 1,124 Posts
Another short question for you, panoramia:

Do you hold open positions over the weekend or close them all on Friday?
 
 
  • Post #950
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 10:39am Aug 9, 2013 10:39am
  •  sebkor6
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 132 Posts
Quoting sebkor6
Disliked
Hi, in attached my second entry - sell eur aud. First entry was at speedbump (1.4843), but it hits stop loss. Now it is about +180 pips {image}
Ignored
eur aud hits target. + 340 pips
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  • Post #951
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 10:48am Aug 9, 2013 10:48am
  •  Olarion1975
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Member | 1,124 Posts
Quoting sebkor6
Disliked
{quote} eur aud hits target. + 340 pips {image}
Ignored
Nice trade!

What was your target? Fixed number of pips or an s&d area?
 
 
  • Post #952
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 11:07am Aug 9, 2013 11:07am
  •  Jackub
  • | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: consciuos incompetence level | 2,064 Posts
Quoting sebkor6
Disliked
{quote} eur aud hits target. + 340 pips {image}
Ignored
What a nice job!!!
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
 
 
  • Post #953
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 11:13am Aug 9, 2013 11:13am
  •  sebkor6
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 132 Posts
Hi,

Attached eur jpy long position. Let's see what will happen.

D1 demand, confirmed on h1. We have also trendline retest .
This is trade against weekly supply zone but i think, that correction should be nice according to the daily demand zone.
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  • Post #954
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 11:17am Aug 9, 2013 11:17am
  •  sebkor6
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 132 Posts
Quoting Olarion1975
Disliked
{quote} Nice trade! What was your target? Fixed number of pips or an s&d area?
Ignored
Thank's

Price was near the support around 1.448 so i close trade manually.
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  • Post #955
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 11:22am Aug 9, 2013 11:22am
  •  sebkor6
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 132 Posts
Quoting Jackub
Disliked
{quote} What a nice job!!!
Ignored
Thank's Jackub, I am still learning. When we practise a lot, good results will come more often than loses .
 
 
  • Post #956
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 12:57pm Aug 9, 2013 12:57pm
  •  Stefaan
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 25 Posts
Hi There Alfonso.
Im studying your rules with your logic. And now I think I see the logic.
I ended 2 trades today (for the weekend) with your shared nolidge.

I post hereby 2 charts that i traded the last days. And it was a big win.
the entries and the exits are marked with arrows.
I monitor the 4H charts but i enter on the 1H to chop my risk.
Thanks again for sharing.

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  • Post #957
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 1:39pm Aug 9, 2013 1:39pm
  •  mfinab
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 366 Posts
Quoting sebkor6
Disliked
Hi, Attached eur jpy long position. Let's see what will happen. D1 demand, confirmed on h1. We have also trendline retest . This is trade against weekly supply zone but i think, that correction should be nice according to the daily demand zone. {image} {image}
Ignored
Nice catch Sebkor6! Congrats for that,

Here is my point of view on EURJPY

I took profit on:
GBPAUD R:R 1:2
AUDCHF R:R 1:3

Any comments is welcome on those charts:
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  • Post #958
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:13pm Aug 9, 2013 3:13pm
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Hi Francis!

I have nothing to add to your nice H1 speedbump demand trade on AUDUSD, it's just that way, you followed the methodology step by step and you got 2 trades on that aussie rallie. The short you are planning looks good as well since it's a fresh and original level.

Congratulations again on your trades! Great job!
Alfonso


Quoting isko
Disliked
Hi everyone, quite sometime I did not drop to visit the thread, quite busy with some works lately (but never absent with Alfonso's webinars, hehehe!). Anyway, I have a trade with AUDUSD; TF is 1HR. 1. Re-entry long position on a speed bump after closing my first trade with it. 2. Planned to short AUDUSD since price now near weekly supply zone. Kindly share your observation and comments as I am still a month old with Supply and Demand. {image} Francis
Ignored
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #959
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:22pm Aug 9, 2013 3:22pm
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Hello Ash!

I've answered this question once on the thread, it's difficult to tell an average. I have a trading plan, we all should have it. On that trading plan I specify number of trades that can be open at the same time, maximum % risk for all opened positions, maximum drawdown, etc.

Emotions are KEY. I have a couple of accounts. On the first one I am on top of it and my emotions influence on the results (i move sl to be beforehand), I close my runners too soon, etc. On another one I close at minimium 3:1 no matter what happens. On the first one I get a 5-7% return per month, on the the second one an average of 15-20% per month. Silly? No, it's all about emotions. I'm working on that, we are all in that same wagon, that's key to success in trading.

I will always risk 1% on any trade, never more than 1%. My maximum drawdown has been 10-11%, 3 times, all due to news trading, I mean, leaving some limit orders opened before big news NFP. I learnt the lesson, so when there are big news I just take 1-2 days off and will re-analyze the markets after that. I just want to avoid unnecessary losses.

I am modifying my tradiing plan to adjust to a couple of new rules, I will be sharing it with you all soon once I've gone through it in depth!

Alfonso

Quoting ashtrader
Disliked
Hi Alfonso, Thank you for this . Your explanation is crystal clear. To make the journey easier, how many consistent loser have you had in a row, and how many consistent winners have you had in a row. From what i see you trade about 26 pairs. Do you have a rule of max trades or do you take every setup on every pair. also on average how many trades do you take per month Just trying the understand the psychological aspects of this style of trading. Finally what sort of monthly returns would you expect. We can assume the risk is 1%. In a nutshell it...
Ignored
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #960
  • Quote
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:34pm Aug 9, 2013 3:34pm
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Thanks for that AUDCHF chart Mfinab! That AUDCHF long was great, I am on holidays, will be for one more week so I am not very active, only doing some set & forget trades (very few though), but those AUDCF longs was terrific. Price hit a D1 demand zone withing a Weekly demand zone which was also within a Monthly demand zone. What else can we ask?

As you can see, it's always the SAME THING, over and over and over... there will be losses, but that's part of the game!

Look at the monthly chart. A Monthly demand area. Price penetrated it, reached a fresh weekly demand (dashed green trendlines) and bounced from it. Within that WK demand, there was a D1 demand area.

If you didn't set & forget, there were some nice brand new H1 and H4 demand areas to go long at!

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Thanks you and all other traders contributing to this thread with your trades and comments, I'm very happy that so many of you trust the methodology and are obtaining some benefits from it. In a few months, if you continue to work this way, you will see a BIG change. Markets work this way, supply and demand are the forces that move the markets!

Alfonso


Quoting mfinab
Disliked
Hey traders, I dont know if anyone took AUDCHF LONG this week, seems to perform very well. BTW, I closed AUDUSD yesterday with a profit of 1:4 Here is AUDCHF {image} {image}
Ignored
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
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