HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading research papers 12 replies

Will do statistical research for pips (or food) 8 replies

What research do you do when not trading? 19 replies

what's your daily morning research routine before trading? 15 replies

Attachments: HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread
Exit Attachments

HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #581
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:22pm Aug 8, 2013 12:22pm
This is a setup that I am looking at (subject to the bar closing well)

Some solid confluence!

8300 RN (very responsive!) + PPZ + trend line + hints of a bearish flag in the making + 150 EMA.

I see that space is an issue but you gotta love the location. Plus there is actually some space cleared up by the smooth move down and back up by the recent action, which also hints to a possible cleanup of the area of messy order flow - still a hint but coupled with strong confluence I am considering this one for sure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdcad.png Size: 34 KB


g.
I believe . . .
  • #582
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:35pm Aug 8, 2013 2:35pm
Is this a swing failure pattern?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfd2.png Size: 41 KB
  • #583
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:32pm Aug 8, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting str8
Is this a swing failure pattern? {image}
It is but, the SFP bar closed as a PB making the entry too far from the SFP for my liking.
Also, I am not sure about how reliable the SFP is going to be when you start aggregating the time frame like that.
  • #584
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:49pm Aug 8, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} I'll get to this later tomorrow, as I am busy with Eid preparations, but just some quick food for thought: For those of you eager to carry this method on to the lower time frames without sacrificing much of the reliability, there is quite some merit to actually taking a more "ripe" fake out as opposed to a more "raw" one on the lower time frames. The key to the daily setups being more reliable is quite simply dependent on the fact that they contain more information, are spread over more time and are more tuned in on the bigger story...
Thanks for explaining the original thought on that SP.

I am trying to work out what actually happened at this level on H4 and am floundering a little.
Possibly bar 4 testing the low and then filling the space created by the close below and the level has something to do with the mechanics of the bars?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfh4.png Size: 63 KB
  • #585
  • Aug 8, 2013 9:31pm Aug 8, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting ghous
This is a setup that I am looking at (subject to the bar closing well) Some solid confluence! 8300 RN (very responsive!) + PPZ + trend line + hints of a bearish flag in the making + 150 EMA. I see that space is an issue but you gotta love the location. Plus there is actually some space cleared up by the smooth move down and back up by the recent action, which also hints to a possible cleanup of the area of messy order flow - still a hint but coupled with strong confluence I am considering this one for sure. {image} g.
Not the first time it has happened, but these always hurt. Price missed my order by 2 pips. Ouch.



lol

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdcaddaily.png Size: 53 KB
I believe . . .
  • #586
  • Aug 8, 2013 9:32pm Aug 8, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting str8
Is this a swing failure pattern? {image}
Synthesizing trade setups on hybrid time frames isn't what I personally prefer, but to answer your question, yes that is a swing failure pattern.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #587
  • Aug 8, 2013 9:58pm Aug 8, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks for explaining the original thought on that SP. I am trying to work out what actually happened at this level on H4 and am floundering a little. Possibly bar 4 testing the low and then filling the space created by the close below and the level has something to do with the mechanics of the bars? {image}
Hey Steve,

I don't think you're floundering at all.

You seem to have grasped the idea quite well but those acronyms sure make it sound like you're talking of some rocket science there.

Lets get right back to the basic idea of a "swing failure":

Price swiftly hitting a major HHR or an LLS and testing the region beyond it without successfully sustaining the momentum and falling right back within the swing point.

The daily bar close is a condition that helps systematize the concept as well as filter the not so obvious setups but be very clear that while a daily closing back within the HHR/LLS is a strong sign of a fake out, its not what makes or breaks a fake out setup....or rather to avoid the confusion I should say the close doesn't make or break the fake out "scenario".

I say this because while for the most part the best fake out setups are the ones, where you have the daily closing in your favor, scan your charts and you'll find tonnes of examples where price closes strongly beyond the swing point and immediately and some times even eventually closes right back within the swing point.

The most defining characteristic of a fake out is quite simply the falsification of the basic structural principle of support turning into resistance and vice versa

Going by this, whenever you see price stepping on the gas beyond an HHR (resistance) and find it not being able to hold up via support at the HHR upon a pull back. You have a fake out. Beyond this every condition I use is honestly for systematization and filtration purposes.

*****************---------------------------*****************


Now that we have the back drop set, let's get down what I was talking about the other day:

As I mentioned I like the dailies because they contain more information and a bigger chunk of time encompassing all the trading sessions. With a 4H fake out or a 1H fake out, you are banking on partial or incomplete information which doesn't invalidate those time frames for trading but does extract some reliability juice from the method.

Attempts can still be made though, by taking a more conservative stance on the lower time frames than on the higher time frames, to still execute the method confidently. Being conservative obviously means waiting for the best swing points (possibly ones that stand out even on the higher time frames) but additionally in this scenario it means, waiting for multiple confirmations after the fake out actually occurs. Not only are you then dealing with more information, you also have seen through a larger "time bracket" to be more confident about your decision.

Examples to follow which should clear things up further.

PS: this is still an idea which is very much in a test tube, so kindly don't start running through several intra day clicks of "fake out scenarios". Do some serious back and forward testing and possibly post the results or questions or points of discussion here so it benefits you and all. Stay safe please.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #588
  • Edited 10:27pm Aug 8, 2013 10:10pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, I don't think you're floundering at all. You seem to have grasped the idea quite well but those acronyms sure make it sound like you're talking of some rocket science there. Lets get right back to the basic idea of a "swing failure": Price swiftly hitting a major HHR or an LLS and testing the region beyond it without successfully sustaining the momentum and falling right back within the swing point. The daily bar close is a condition that helps systematize the concept as well as filter the not so obvious setups but be very...
Rocket Science. I feel like a :nerd:LOL

I am going to read and re-read this all day, till I get it.

First thought is, if the close below is a filter, then not using it seems a little tricky.
This is because, I am yet to really comprehend the tell tale signs and mechanism of which H4 bar should be filling the level in after a daily close below.

Just hit me on the head with a rock, if I am going off the right track here.

Appreciate the thought provoking ideas.
  • #589
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:32pm Aug 8, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, I don't think you're floundering at all. You seem to have grasped the idea quite well but those acronyms sure make it sound like you're talking of some rocket science there. Lets get right back to the basic idea of a "swing failure": Price swiftly hitting a major HHR or an LLS and testing the region beyond it without successfully sustaining the momentum and falling right back within the swing point. The daily bar close is a condition that helps systematize the concept as well as filter the not so obvious setups but be very...
If you think about these setups for a moment each one of them constitutes quite some hours of action during the development phase and hence in many ways replicates the higher time frame actions only a bit more chopped up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart a.png Size: 33 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart b.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart c.png Size: 30 KB


The entry trigger for me would have to be the bar that shows me the tip off in my favor, pin bars good bearish/bullish bars and pull backs and hold ups at the HHR/LLS levels.

The trick would have to be nailing down the location and space issues, as well as picking out the major swing points. Notice also that its easy to get carried away with this stuff because some of the essential features of the daily setups such as single bar or at most double bar fake out setups that filter out a lot of scenarios are missing. Ideally you would like the fake out scenario to develop within a "few bars" rather than some true trading action beyond the swing point prior to a move back into the swing point.

In the coming months I will be testing this idea out more for sure.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #590
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:37pm Aug 8, 2013 10:37pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Rocket Science. I feel like a :nerd:LOL I am going to read and re-read this all day, till I get it. First thought is, if the close below is a filter, then not using it seems a little tricky. This is because, I am yet to really comprehend the tell tale signs and mechanism of which H4 bar should be filling the level in after a daily close below. Just hit me on the head with a rock, if I am going off the right track here. Appreciate the thought provoking ideas.
yes it sure is a little tricky.

But the guile slowly eradicates when you lift your head off individual bars and concentrate on the bigger story AT ALL TIMES.

Just remember that in a court of law you don't put forward the reason for killing a guy as "pulling the trigger" but more along the lines of "he winked at my wife or sent a flying kiss and was unlucky to have me spot him him do that"

The trigger is what killed the guy (trigger bars and their closes) of course but he actually died because his ill character met a possessive husband (the bigger story).

silly analogy but should communicate the point.

Its all about the story!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #591
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:10pm Aug 8, 2013 11:10pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} yes it sure is a little tricky. But the guile slowly eradicates when you lift your head off individual bars and concentrate on the bigger story AT ALL TIMES. Just remember that in a court of law you don't put forward the reason for killing a guy as "pulling the trigger" but more along the lines of "he winked at my wife or sent a flying kiss and was unlucky to have me spot him him do that" The trigger is what killed the guy (trigger bars and their closes) of course but he actually died because his ill character met a possessive husband...
It is a good analogy, I feel.

Just a quick question about the wicks you mentioned in the EC and EU charts.

You mentioned that in the EC chart, the wick to the upside was a plus for the bulls.
However, in the EU setup you mentioned that the wicks to the downside seem to suggest weakness.

I mean, the EC wick is a little longer in length but doesn't appear to be that drastically different.
So if the wick to the upside is a bonus how come the wick to the downside is a negative?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 35 KB
  • #592
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:22pm Aug 8, 2013 11:22pm
Here is one which I think I may have worked out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfdaily.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfh4.png Size: 59 KB
  • #593
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:25pm Aug 8, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} It is a good analogy, I feel. Just a quick question about the wicks you mentioned in the EC and EU charts. You mentioned that in the EC chart, the wick to the upside was a plus for the bulls. However, in the EU setup you mentioned that the wicks to the downside seem to suggest weakness. I mean, the EC wick is a little longer in length but doesn't appear to be that drastically different. So if the wick to the upside is a bonus how come the wick to the downside is a negative? {image} {image}
Sorry for the confusion. I meant weakness for bears. Price had closed below the LLS albeit weakly and the other bars followed suit. Ofcourse the weakness refers to bearish weakness under the LLS which meams strength for the bulls and hence the bullish setup.

G.
I believe . . .
  • #594
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:57pm Aug 8, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Sorry for the confusion. I meant weakness for bears. Price had closed below the LLS albeit weakly and the other bars followed suit. Ofcourse the weakness refers to bearish weakness under the LLS which meams strength for the bulls and hence the bullish setup. G.
Thanks Ghous

Think I get what you mean.
  • #595
  • Aug 9, 2013 12:11am Aug 9, 2013 12:11am
Hi Pinbar and Ghous,

Could you tell me why it's not good to look at 2 day charts? Is it because not enough traders are watching it?
  • #596
  • Aug 9, 2013 12:16am Aug 9, 2013 12:16am
Quoting str8
Hi Pinbar and Ghous, Could you tell me why it's not good to look at 2 day charts? Is it because not enough traders are watching it?

Yes, I believe that is the main reason.
  • #597
  • Aug 9, 2013 12:21am Aug 9, 2013 12:21am
Quoting str8
Hi Pinbar and Ghous, Could you tell me why it's not good to look at 2 day charts? Is it because not enough traders are watching it?
yes. Plus also the fact that once you start manufacturing time frames it is hard to stop. I mean why would you look at only a 2day chart? If the purpose is to simply move from more chopped up action into a more condensed form why not a 1 day 8 hour chart or a 3day 12 hour chart? Traders are neither watching the 2day chart nor are they watching a 1 day 8 hour chart . . .

Combining different time frames condenses price action and although it doesn't distort it, it can seriously impact the shape of the candlesticks/bars which happen to be our (and other traders') sources for triggers. Its better to take a pin bar on say the hourly than a 3 hour chart.

hope this helps.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #598
  • Aug 9, 2013 12:59am Aug 9, 2013 12:59am
Quoting ghous
{quote} yes. Plus also the fact that once you start manufacturing time frames it is hard to stop. I mean why would you look at only a 2day chart? If the purpose is to simply move from more chopped up action into a more condensed form why not a 1 day 8 hour chart or a 3day 12 hour chart? Traders are neither watching the 2day chart nor are they watching a 1 day 8 hour chart . . . Combining different time frames condenses price action and although it doesn't distort it, it can seriously impact the shape of the candlesticks/bars which happen to be our...
Thanks.
What you said is also available for new time frames offered my Metatrader5? They offer a lot of intraday charts compared to Metatrader4.
  • #599
  • Aug 9, 2013 1:02am Aug 9, 2013 1:02am
Let's see how EU closes today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 86 KB
  • #600
  • Aug 9, 2013 1:03am Aug 9, 2013 1:03am
Quoting str8
{quote} Thanks. What you said is also available for new time frames offered my Metatrader5? They offer a lot of intraday charts compared to Metatrader4.

Yeah, they offer them so as to confuse more potential losers.
0 traders viewing now