Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 47 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #921
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:38am Aug 8, 2013 10:38am
Hi Danzka,

I don't want to be a good or a bad teacher, just willing to help with all the things that I've learnt and use for my personal trading.
I will make many mistakes but that's all part of the game, the good thing is that the methodology is logical, common sense and mechanical!

Alfonso

P.S. Use the QUOTE button when you want to reply to one of the messages, don't use the POST REPLY unless you want to start a brand new post ok?
Quoting danzka
wow thank you Alfonso, you are a good teacher the weakness of usd makes me go in with small lot I will keep a close eye on this pair to see where it goes
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #922
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:45am Aug 8, 2013 10:45am
Hi Mfinab!

I haven't been trading much lately since I'm in a sort of holidays, still away... That AUDUSD long is the perfect trade, the perfect use of a H4 speedbump demand bouncing from a deeper area in the Monthly speedbump demand which we commented on a previous post. Congratulations!

I have nothing else to say, it's just 101! Brand new speedbump demand coming off a Monthly Demand area! Price is approaching to a fresh Weekly supply area, which could cause some reaction.

Congratulations!
Alfonso

Quoting mfinab
Hi traders, since 2 weeks, I'm doing the system of Panoramia, good results so far... here is a trade I'm currently in: LONG AUDUSD from 0.8936 {image} {image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #923
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:53am Aug 8, 2013 10:53am
Hi Mfinab!

Same thing on GBPAUD, the same type of trade, great! There was also something else to take this GBPAUD short and the EURAUD H4 short I had posted yesterday on the thread (which some of you took as well). The AUDUSD is rallying from a Monthly demand area, that makes the AUSSIE strong. So inverse correlated pairs like GBPAUD and EURAUD should drop with the aussie's strength. AUDCAD and AUDJPY rallying as well. If the aussie is strongly bouncing off a higher timeframe, it's most likely that the cross pairs will do the opposite!

Congratulations again!
Alfonso

Quoting mfinab
Hey guys, Anyone else took that trade on GBPAUD {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #924
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:23pm Aug 8, 2013 12:23pm
Hi Alfonso,

Thank you for the comments! I appreciate that!

Now I have a question for you about AUDUSD. Now that I'm like 2% profit and Risk 1 Reward 4 (RR 1:4). What do you recommend to do? I was about to close the position. Maybe I should take 1/2 profit? So hard to decide... you may also have a rule about that?

Weekly supply is approx 9200 current: 9120
Daily supply is approx 9245
4h supply : 9197

Just curious to know what you would do?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Correction:
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  • #925
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:24pm Aug 8, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting sebkor6
Attached usd cad. We are in the range of d1 supply level. I see that this level is not that strong, because price was for 5 days in the same area. It,'s a second attempt to sell. First finished at BE. Now price creates new supply level on h4 time frame. Let's see what will happen. There is a mistake on pictures . It should be "supply" not demand {image} {image}

Price hits my target. SL was 17 pips, target 106 pips. RR 1:6.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #926
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:28pm Aug 8, 2013 12:28pm
Congrats Sebkor6,

Very nice trade!
  • #927
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:55pm Aug 8, 2013 12:55pm
Alfonso, is this considered a swap level? And if an original level is a swap level can it be used to counter trend?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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NT
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #928
  • Aug 8, 2013 12:56pm Aug 8, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Price hits my target. SL was 17 pips, target 106 pips. RR 1:6. {image}
Nice
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #929
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:26pm Aug 8, 2013 2:26pm
Hi Nick!

I don't use swap levels, flip areas or anything similar to that for my entries. I trade on fresh levels with the trend (using trend lines as a mechanichal way to filter out trades), and original +fresh levels for counter trend (if you want to counter tremd_, OR confirmation es explained on the videos. Nothing else! The simpler the better

I am on my mobile but as far as I can see that level would be a speedbump supply against the trend on that timeframe, that is a no trade as per the rules, unless u use confirmation with brand new level of supply.

Hope that's clear!
Alfonso

Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Nice
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #930
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:29pm Aug 8, 2013 2:29pm
Very very well done Sekbor! Nice h1 confirmation short trade on the usdcad, with the dollar index dropping. Nice confluence!

Congrats! Next one please

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Price hits my target. SL was 17 pips, target 106 pips. RR 1:6. {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #931
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:37pm Aug 8, 2013 2:37pm
Hi Mfinab!

My answer is simple. If I find a fresh weekly supply in my way, I will exit my trade and wait for a new setup. My exit will be a minimum of 3:1 my risk.

You can lock in some profits by closing part of the trade or moving your sl below the closest valid h1/h4 structure (demand in this case). It's all about the rules you have for targets on ur trading plan. You can close at a fix r/r ratio, a few pips before the opposing sd level, you choose, but it's better to know that before you enter your trades, all pre-planned so that ur emotions don't interfere in ur final decision.

Alfonso

Quoting mfinab
Hi Alfonso, Thank you for the comments! I appreciate that! Now I have a question for you about AUDUSD. Now that I'm like 2% profit and Risk 1 Reward 4 (RR 1:4). What do you recommend to do? I was about to close the position. Maybe I should take 1/2 profit? So hard to decide... you may also have a rule about that? Weekly supply is approx 9200 current: 9120 Daily supply is approx 9245 4h supply : 9197 Just curious to know what you would do? {image} Correction: {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #932
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:53pm Aug 8, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi Nick! I don't use swap levels, flip areas or anything similar to that for my entries. I trade on fresh levels with the trend (using trend lines as a mechanichal way to filter out trades), and original +fresh levels for counter trend (if you want to counter tremd_, OR confirmation es explained on the videos. Nothing else! The simpler the better I am on my mobile but as far as I can see that level would be a speedbump supply against the trend on that timeframe, that is a no trade as per the rules, unless u use confirmation with brand new level...
Very clear. Thank you.

Quote
I trade on fresh levels with the trend (using trend lines as a mechanichal way to filter out trades)
Is this covered in the video Supply and demand webinar, how to draw and use trendlines to assess trend in the markets?

Inserted Video
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #933
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:34pm Aug 8, 2013 3:34pm
Yes Nick, that's the first and only video that covers the use of trendlines to filter out trades and assess direction!
Alfonso

Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Very clear. Thank you. {quote} Is this covered in the video Supply and demand webinar, how to draw and use trendlines to assess trend in the markets? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=aJSJtok96bs
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #934
  • Aug 8, 2013 4:58pm Aug 8, 2013 4:58pm
Hi Sekbor!

I saw that the GBPUSD trade you were in did not work as expected. We commented on that D1 supply area this morning. I believe you were on a H1 supply area, confirmation trade within that D1 supply level.

Like I said, speedbumps are not the best levels to lean on when the timeframe where it was detected is counter trend. Departure was not that good either, dollar index was dropping like a rock, not a good idea to short on that level. On my chart is was not even painted. I did paint it to show why the trade was not that high probability.

I would not expect a reverse or a good trade from that area, if you look at the upper fresh D1 supply level, that one has higher probabilities, little time at the level, strong departure and fresh.

Losses happen ALL the time, every loss is a lesson! We just have to keep on trying and learning from our trades, we learn more from errors. We must welcome errors and losses, since we'll learn from them.

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Thank you Alfonso for your comment (and a nice lesson) It's still sometimes difficult to me, to draw sup dem levels on higher timeframes as they should be drawn, so only think that we should do is: to practise, practise and practise again
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #935
  • Edited 5:59pm Aug 8, 2013 5:47pm | Edited 5:59pm
I've created a new version of the Rectangle Reader indicator with some new features that will be of great help to all supply and demand traders. It's important to remember that I'm adding all these features because I need them for my personal trading. There are some features requests that I will possibly add in the future, but right now I am solely focused on what I need to enhance my entries.

The new features are this:

  1. NO_TL_COLOR: set to purple by default. The color set on this variable will not be taken into account as a strong SD level, no TL (tredline) will be painted on distal/proximal lines and the pips calculation will not be applied to it either. This is very useful when you want to draw a SD area you want to be aware of but you don't to have the trendlines painted on or influence on your decisions (like a speedbump against the trend)
  2. Now the RR indicator will detect if a SD rectangle has been touched, if touched (non-fresh) the rectangle color will be automatically changed to the one you have specified for supply and demand colors retouch (see next bullet). we want to buy or sell only on fresh areas of supply and demand, I did this because fresh levels are higher odds and it is the way I trade (you can chose to trade differently if you want to)
  3. Color.sup.retouch and Color.dem.rotouch: these will be the colors a non-fresh SD rectangle will be changed to
  4. If the SD zone is not the color specified under DEMAND_COLOR_1, DEMAND_COLOR_2, SUPPLY_COLOR_1 and SUPPLY_COLOR_2, the rectangle reader indicator will not change its color to the Color.sup.retouch and color.dem.retouch
  5. Soli.retouch. If this is set to true, when a SD zone is touched for the first time (non-fresh), the rectangle will be filled. If set to false the rectangle will be unfilled. You can change this setting at any moment, it will be instantly applied to ALL manual rectangles you have drawn, but not to those automatically painted by the Automatic SD indicator by Insanities Industries

VERY IMPORTANT:

  1. Make a copy of your previous rectangle reader indicator in case you don't want to use this one
  2. Save the templates for the pairs you are trading in case you don't want to have the automatic change of colors on retouch. If you don't like it, you can always use the old indicator and the templates you have saved
  3. Remember that once you drag the new indicator on your charts, the new settings will be applied automatically to all manual SD levels on all charts and all timeframes

You can download the new rectangle indicator from the 1st post in this thread, or this link http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1376001883

You have to download the whole zip file and locate the RectangleReader.ex4 indicator under experts/indicators folder and overwrite your existing indicator (remember the warnings above).

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #936
  • Aug 8, 2013 5:49pm Aug 8, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi Mfinab! My answer is simple. If I find a fresh weekly supply in my way, I will exit my trade and wait for a new setup. My exit will be a minimum of 3:1 my risk. You can lock in some profits by closing part of the trade or moving your sl below the closest valid h1/h4 structure (demand in this case). It's all about the rules you have for targets on ur trading plan. You can close at a fix r/r ratio, a few pips before the opposing sd level, you choose, but it's better to know that before you enter your trades, all pre-planned so that ur emotions...
Thank you again Alfonso!
  • #937
  • Aug 8, 2013 6:00pm Aug 8, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi Danzka, I don't want to be a good or a bad teacher, just willing to help with all the things that I've learnt and use for my personal trading. I will make many mistakes but that's all part of the game, the good thing is that the methodology is logical, common sense and mechanical! Alfonso P.S. Use the QUOTE button when you want to reply to one of the messages, don't use the POST REPLY unless you want to start a brand new post ok? {quote}

A very important statement here: "I will make many mistakes but that's all part of the game, the good thing is that the methodology is logical, common sense and mechanical!"

This will require many of you to REWIRE your thinking. No Absolutes just Probabilities. Learning to see the Pattern from the TOP down > Higher TF's to Lower TF's (Alfonso's approach ) will make this journey a bit easier. Overtime you can find the pattern in every single chart to look at.


TSD
  • #938
  • Aug 8, 2013 7:58pm Aug 8, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} A very important statement here: "I will make many mistakes but that's all part of the game, the good thing is that the methodology is logical, common sense and mechanical!" This will require many of you to REWIRE your thinking. No Absolutes just Probabilities. Learning to see the Pattern from the TOP down > Higher TF's to Lower TF's (Alfonso's approach ) will make this journey a bit easier. Overtime you can find the pattern in every single chart to look at. TSD
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #939
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:41am Aug 9, 2013 2:41am
Hi everyone, quite sometime I did not drop to visit the thread, quite busy with some works lately (but never absent with Alfonso's webinars, hehehe!).


Anyway, I have a trade with AUDUSD; TF is 1HR.


1. Re-entry long position on a speed bump after closing my first trade with it.
2. Planned to short AUDUSD since price now near weekly supply zone.


Kindly share your observation and comments as I am still a month old with Supply and Demand.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Francis
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #940
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:09am Aug 9, 2013 3:09am
How do i get the support and resistance indicator to work in mt4? I put it on my chart but it isnt drawing the levels.
Keep your blades sharp!
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