Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 45 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #881
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:13am Aug 7, 2013 5:13am
Quoting panoramia
Planning a short trade on a H4 supply zone on EURAUD. Price has reached a D1 supply area, it's reacting to it forming brand new areas of supply on H4/H1. The D1 is in an uptrend, see that D1 demand areas are being respected and supply areas being violated. This trade could not be a big runner, its target around 1.4500, right at the breakout spot which also is a confluences with the D1 ascending trendline {image} The entry would be on the H4 supply zone. The zone is too wide for my risk, so I have drilled it down to 40 pips. Price might no reach...

Price maybe reach the stop loss. On h4 we dont have a good arrival so the profit margin its bad.
  • #882
  • Edited 5:31am Aug 7, 2013 5:16am | Edited 5:31am
My entry was not hit the first time on EURAUD trade by 5 pips (I had drilled it down to my risk, you saw it on the chart), price dropped from the H4 supply area without me, so I cancelled the trade. I had a friend that took it since he drilled it bigger than me, he told me he had a breakeven because he moved SL to entry, he didn't like that much. The trade would be still alive, but not looking that good now

I don't look at arrival when I'm so high in the curve, I just set & forget! Will there be losses? of course! But either that or you have to be glued to the screen! I just look at probabilities!

I post trades, but then I can't update all of them because cancellation comes in many forms. A Trendline being broken, D1 SD has already been hit...

I cancelled CADJPY and EURAUD, each of them for different reasons. CADJPY being too low now and D1 demand touched. EURAUD because my entry was missed by 5 pips and it dropped without me after that miss.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 38 KB


Alfonso

Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Price maybe reach the stop loss. On h4 we dont have a good arrival so the profit margin its bad.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #883
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:24am Aug 7, 2013 5:24am
Quoting panoramia
My entry was not hit the first time on EURAUD trade by 5 pips (I had drilled it down to my risk, you saw it on the chart), price dropped from the H4 supply area without me, so I cancelled the trade. I had a friend that took it since he drilled it bigger than me, he told me he had a breakeven. I don't look at arrival when I'm so high in the curve, I just set & forget! Will there be losses? of course! But either that or you have to be glued to the screen! I just look at probabilities! Alfonso {quote}
For me is bad luck with this trade. I took entire h4 level. If i will respect the rule with 2:1 to BE maybe many trades will be losses. If i put my BE at 1:1 all trades will be BE. What is your W/L ratio with 2:1 to Be? Thank you!
  • #884
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:36am Aug 7, 2013 5:36am
My initiall entry would still be alive, since I took the level differently to you I believe, you can see it on the previous posts, the SL wouldn't have been hit yet. The H4 supply level is not broken yet, but I cancelled it because I missed my entry and dropped 80 pips, run without me.

My breakeven is normlally 2:1, when it's a level at D1/WK fresh areas, then my breakeven is lik 4 or 5:1, but what I will be doing from now on on such areas is to have no breakeven. Either it will be a loss or a winner. I will move SL technically above/below H4 SD zones instead, no breakeven. This is something I am going to start doing from now on at the extremes.

Alfonso

Quoting bobyv87
{quote} For me is bad luck with this trade. I took entire h4 level. If i will respect the rule with 2:1 to BE maybe many trades will be losses. If i put my BE at 1:1 all trades will be BE. What is your W/L ratio with 2:1 to Be? Thank you!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #885
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:46am Aug 7, 2013 5:46am
The situation on gbp usd is not clear to me. We are in consolidation. Price builds supply after supply and demand after demand.
For me is crucial, how we draw sup dem area on d1 timeframe.
This is the example how price behave after news.
News bring price (after hitting d1 supply area), to the nearest demand.
Price just touch d1 demand area and bounced like a rocket.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd d.PNG Size: 104 KB
  • #886
  • Edited Aug 8, 2013 4:23am Aug 7, 2013 9:56am | Edited Aug 8, 2013 4:23am
UPDATE


Is this the possible trend reversal?

original + fresh H1 supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 99 KB


original + fresh Daily supply (i think its original, im not sure if that is classed as a speed bump to the left of it?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 110 KB


original weekly supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 109 KB


Would this match a confirmation order?
..............................

Is the below considered a pull back? If not then the level is fresh as well as original.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly2.png Size: 103 KB
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #887
  • Aug 7, 2013 12:33pm Aug 7, 2013 12:33pm
Here's an indicator that would help everyone which will name the chart & timeframe. You can adjust size, colour, position etc.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 watermark.mq4   5 KB | 701 downloads
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #888
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:53pm Aug 7, 2013 1:53pm
AUDUSD Wk demand, daily demand si h4 up RBR, i put trade to BE, http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/615429...-h4-exness-ltd
  • #889
  • Aug 7, 2013 6:49pm Aug 7, 2013 6:49pm
Hi Alfonso.

Great Thread and many thanks for the information and videos.
Please keep posting your charts from time to time, I like looking at how you draw your levels.
My charts look ok, but yours have more good information and less rubbish.

Thanks again

Wayne.
  • #890
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:53pm Aug 7, 2013 10:53pm
Hi Alfonso.

Thanks to the material you have posted on this thread, I have joined Forex Factory today.
I must say it is a Great Thread I have downloaded your indicators and spreadsheet in the start of the thread and will be installing them and be going through the valuable videos you have posted.
In case there is some other stuff that i need to download please let me know.
Many thanks for this information and I look forward to some candid comments on my support and demand levels when i post them.
Cheers!

Sachu
  • #891
  • Aug 8, 2013 1:36am Aug 8, 2013 1:36am
Quoting panoramia
My initiall entry would still be alive, since I took the level differently to you I believe, you can see it on the previous posts, the SL wouldn't have been hit yet. The H4 supply level is not broken yet, but I cancelled it because I missed my entry and dropped 80 pips, run without me. My breakeven is normlally 2:1, when it's a level at D1/WK fresh areas, then my breakeven is lik 4 or 5:1, but what I will be doing from now on on such areas is to have no breakeven. Either it will be a loss or a winner. I will move SL technically above/below H4 SD...
My EURAUD trade entry was a bit lower @1.48576 and after surviving nearly being stopped out last night and getting +2:1 I set SL to BE and when I wake up price retraced exactly to my stop, 60pip 5 min bar and now +150pip and counting in my direction. I think I might have to adopt your rule above as this was a move from higher time frames. Anyway on to the next trades.
  • #892
  • Aug 8, 2013 1:49am Aug 8, 2013 1:49am
Hi,

in attached my second entry - sell eur aud.
First entry was at speedbump (1.4843), but it hits stop loss.

Now it is about +180 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #893
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:26am Aug 8, 2013 2:26am
Hi,

gbp usd. I try to catch some down move according to weekly supply area (wery wide), but we are in speedbump daily supply area as well.
On h1 price creates new supply, so it gave me confirmation, that could be some down move. SL is 21 pips. Let's see what will happen.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd w.PNG Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.PNG Size: 92 KB
  • #894
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:27am Aug 8, 2013 2:27am
Hi Sekbor,

Congratulations on your trade again! As you could see, the initial planned trade did not hit the SL. When planning a trade we need to add some wiggle room, that is, some pips more because brokers love to play with spreads. When trading H4 timeframes, we need to add a minimum of 5-7 pips, if it's a cross pair even 10-12 pips. Is that much? It's what it's. If we don't do that we'll have our SL hit more frequently.

When adding those pips for wiggle room, you just adapt your risk to the new amount of pips and go ahead!
Alfonso

P.S. The same answer goes to WBH


Quoting sebkor6
Hi, in attached my second entry - sell eur aud. First entry was at speedbump (1.4843), but it hits stop loss. Now it is about +180 pips {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #895
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:30am Aug 8, 2013 2:30am
Hi Wayne!

Welcome to the thread and thanks for your message. I will keep on posting my chats and explanations on the type of trades that I take according to the SD methodology.


Alfonso

Quoting runfox
Hi Alfonso. Great Thread and many thanks for the information and videos. Please keep posting your charts from time to time, I like looking at how you draw your levels. My charts look ok, but yours have more good information and less rubbish. Thanks again Wayne.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #896
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:32am Aug 8, 2013 2:32am
Welcome to the thread Sachu, I am looking forward to seeing your trade setups after you review the videos and start undersding the whole SD methodology. Others are doing it already, they are contributing with their entries and explanations.

Hope to see yours soon!
Cheers!
Alfonso

Quoting Sachu
Hi Alfonso. Thanks to the material you have posted on this thread, I have joined Forex Factory today. I must say it is a Great Thread I have downloaded your indicators and spreadsheet in the start of the thread and will be installing them and be going through the valuable videos you have posted. In case there is some other stuff that i need to download please let me know. Many thanks for this information and I look forward to some candid comments on my support and demand levels when i post them. Cheers! Sachu
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #897
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:46am Aug 8, 2013 2:46am
Hi Sekbor!

Just a comment on that GBPUSD Weekly supply area. Even though it's a weekly supply area, it's a reaction to a previous WK speedbump supply (it was fresh but not original) as you can see on the comment a placed on your chart and on my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 217 KB


If you look at the the WK chart, you will see a descending trendline which is being respected. I joined 2 swing highs (peaks) and price is right there consolidating on H4. It could be a nice spot to short as you did.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 131 KB


On the D1 there is a D1 speedbump supply which was overshot by a couple of pips on my charts. Speedbumps are not good on counter trend.
D1 has changed dynamics and it's up, so a D1 speedbump supply is not that good since a speedbump is a contuation pattern. But still the confirmation trade can work, that's why it's a confirmation (we confirm there are sellers on the area, even though the H1 supply formed did not have a nice departure).

This D1 speedbump though, is the point that caused the break of previous demand. Speedbumps behave better at those areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 142 KB



On the Monthly chart we have price right at in the middle at 50%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 122 KB



The only thing I wanted to comment was that the Weekly supply was a reaction to a previous supply.

Alfonso


Quoting sebkor6
Hi, gbp usd. I try to catch some down move according to weekly supply area (wery wide), but we are in speedbump daily supply area as well. On h1 price creates new supply, so it gave me confirmation, that could be some down move. SL is 21 pips. Let's see what will happen. {image} {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #898
  • Aug 8, 2013 2:58am Aug 8, 2013 2:58am
Quoting panoramia
Hi Sekbor! Just a comment on that GBPUSD Weekly supply area. Even though it's a weekly supply area, it's a reaction to a previous WK speedbump supply (it was fresh but not original) as you can see on the comment a placed on your chart and on my chart. {image} If you look at the the WK chart, you will see a descending trendline which is being respected. I joined 2 swing highs (peaks) and price is right there consolidating on H4. It could be a nice spot to short as you did. {image} On the D1 there is a D1 speedbump supply which was overshot by a couple...

Thank you Alfonso for your comment (and a nice lesson)

It's still sometimes difficult to me, to draw sup dem levels on higher timeframes as they should be drawn, so only think that we should do is: to practise, practise and practise again
  • #899
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:00am Aug 8, 2013 3:00am
Hi Boby!
Congratulations on your trade. The AUDUSD was at Wk demand and also penetrated the Monthly speedbump demand lower and created new levels of demand on H4 and H1. Just one thing, please on your next posts, upload a screenshot of your chart on the thread not as a link to an external site. We all do that so that anybody loading FF page will be able to see the charts without having to leave the forum.


Thanks a lot and congratulations again!
Alfonso


Quoting bobyv87
AUDUSD Wk demand, daily demand si h4 up RBR, i put trade to BE, http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/615429...-h4-exness-ltd
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #900
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:06am Aug 8, 2013 3:06am
Yes, that's the only thing we can do: practice. It takes time but we all get there. I got there after quite a few months of watching the charts and losing lots and lots of trades. I controlled my risk with my money management so my account never had a big drawdown. Controlling your risk is key, so it shouldn't be a problem.

The pound trade can become a nice trade as well, it's not a spot where I would expect a big trade because it's a speedbump against the current upward movements on the pound. The extremes are better for reversals, unless the higher timeframe areas you lean on are a sequence and go with even higher timeframes. In this case the Monthly is right at 50%. It could go anywhere for me.

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Thank you Alfonso for your comment (and a nice lesson) It's still sometimes difficult to me, to draw sup dem levels on higher timeframes as they should be drawn, so only think that we should do is: to practise, practise and practise again
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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