Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 44 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #861
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:35am Aug 6, 2013 11:35am
Quoting sebkor6
Hi, I thint that we will have a nice opportunity on cad chf. Price is in range of weekly and daily demand levels. Once price reacts on h1/h4 timeframes, i will observe some new demand levels to minimize the risk {image}
Hey sebkor, what % of your trades are confirmation based?
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #862
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:52pm Aug 6, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Hey sebkor, what % of your trades are confirmation based?

When i trade in demand/supply d1 zone i always wait for confirmation. If I am trying to catch trend after correction (h4/h1) sometimes i enter sell/buy limit orders.
  • #863
  • Aug 6, 2013 1:55pm Aug 6, 2013 1:55pm
Hi there!

I would not chose that H4 demand level before it's not at the extreme. When the trend changes on the entry timeframe and price is near a higher timeframe SD area, I want to chose the levels at the extremes (leaning mainly on swings, valleys and peaks, not speedbumps(. That H4 demand level is not an extreme, it's a speedbump, that is, a continuation pattern. When the trend has changed on H4 (by the time price reaches that area, it will), I want to lean on an extreme, not on a continuation pattern.

  1. Speedbumps are good as continuation pattern or when price first comes back into a breakout area
  2. Swings (valleys and peaks) are better at the extremes

Hope that makes sense to you!
Alfonso


Quoting Gxp1
{quote} Hi Alphonso, Just wondering why you chose the demand level 1.43369/1.42917 rather than the one above as i have indicated on your chart? please keep up the good work! {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #864
  • Aug 6, 2013 2:31pm Aug 6, 2013 2:31pm
Planning a short on H1 supply speedbump on CADJPY.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 126 KB


See my D1 chart, Room to reach previous higher timeframe area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 127 KB


A friend trader of mine is short at that nice H4 speedbump supply area. This is very similar to the EURJPY H4 supply I was in this morning (mentioned on the thread)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 135 KB


These 2 were entries on H1 fresh supply levels, you could have scaled in. I was not there so I couldn't take them, but planning the H1 speedbump supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 143 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #865
  • Edited 3:32am Aug 7, 2013 2:56am | Edited 3:32am
Hey everyone. I am looking at eur/usd. Price is high in the Daily/WK S/D curve. Would i leave a set and forget at 1.33868 on H4? Or go for a more extreme imbalance by waiting for confirmation inside the daily Supply at 1.34338?

Also, would my profit margin be at 1.27852 (H4) or 1.32190 (H4), which i think is support/resistance?

Still learning : /

Update: Charts included

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 68 KB

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 70 KB

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 77 KB


p.s Sorry my colours are different. My mind is too used to registering these colours to let them go.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #866
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:06am Aug 7, 2013 3:06am
Morning Nick!

Just one thing... when you mention a possible setup, it's better that you upload a screenshot with your descriptions on it as well, otherwise we all have to look at the charts, see what prices you wrote and so on. One image is worth a thousand words, you see the screenshot and few more explanations are needed.

Why? You D1/WK SD areas can be very different to other's, what for you is a good D1 supply it might not be for another trader, his opinion will be based on what he has on his charts because you didn't add any screenshot.

Use free applications like Jing (screencast) to capture them and upload them!

Alfonso


Quoting Nametaker
Hey everyone. I am looking at eur/usd. Price is high in the Daily/WK S/D curve. Would i leave a set and forget at 1.33868 on H4? Or go for a more extreme imbalance by waiting for confirmation inside the daily Supply at 1.34338? Also, would my profit margin be at 1.27852 (H4) or 1.32190 (H4), which i think is support/resistance? Still learning : /
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #867
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:16am Aug 7, 2013 3:16am
The CADJPY H1 short is no longer valid, price has dropped heavily during the night, now price is too close to D1/WK and monthly demand, it's not that high probability!

Alfonso

Quoting panoramia
Planning a short on H1 supply speedbump on CADJPY. {image} See my D1 chart, Room to reach previous higher timeframe area. {image} A friend trader of mine is short at that nice H4 speedbump supply area. This is very similar to the EURJPY H4 supply I was in this morning (mentioned on the thread) {image} These 2 were entries on H1 fresh supply levels, you could have scaled in. I was not there so I couldn't take them, but planning the H1 speedbump supply. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #868
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:29am Aug 7, 2013 3:29am
Quoting panoramia
Morning Nick! Just one thing... when you mention a possible setup, it's better that you upload a screenshot with your descriptions on it as well, otherwise we all have to look at the charts, see what prices you wrote and so on. One image is worth a thousand words, you see the screenshot and few more explanations are needed. Why? You D1/WK SD areas can be very different to other's, what for you is a good D1 supply it might not be for another trader, his opinion will be based on what he has on his charts because you didn't add any screenshot. Use...
Updated.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #869
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:32am Aug 7, 2013 3:32am
After adding the chart, I think it is important also to state whether it is an intraday, swing or position trade so we can understand how you are thinking.

Everyone has different timeframes to trade from & different objectives.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #870
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:35am Aug 7, 2013 3:35am
Now it's better with those screenshots Nick. You will see what I mean now...

You have that H4 supply area markes as fresh, but it's NOT fresh. Remember to draw a horizontal line at the highest high and track it back to the past (remember the video on fresh vs original levels in first post). You will see it's a reaction to a previous level. Score is not 9 for set & forget, you need confirmation yes or yes. The upper supply level is original but a bit wide, that could be a nice spot to short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 153 KB


Quoting Nametake
Hey everyone. I am looking at eur/usd. Price is high in the Daily/WK S/D curve. Would i leave a set and forget at 1.33868 on H4? Or go for a more extreme imbalance by waiting for confirmation inside the daily Supply at 1.34338? Also, would my profit margin be at 1.27852 (H4) or 1.32190 (H4), which i think is support/resistance? Still learning : / Update: Charts included H4 {image} Daily {image} Weekly {image} p.s Sorry my colours are different. My mind is too used to registering these colours to let them go.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #871
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:36am Aug 7, 2013 3:36am
Quoting Shabs19
After adding the chart, I think it is important also to state whether it is an intraday, swing or position trade so we can understand how you are thinking. Everyone has different timeframes to trade from & different objectives.
Swing.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #872
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:41am Aug 7, 2013 3:41am
what is best entry point in this system ?
  • #873
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:46am Aug 7, 2013 3:46am
Hello Randolf,

I cannot answer a question like the one you asked sorry, it's not possible. This is a thread about swing supply and demand trading. What is the best entry point for this system? There is no best entry point, you need to understand it all from the very basics and train your eye to see the SD levels. There is plenty of information on the thread, many live trades, etc, so feel free to go through it.

Alfonso


Quoting randolf
what is best entry point in this system ?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #874
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:51am Aug 7, 2013 3:51am
Quoting panoramia
Now it's better with those screenshots Nick. You will see what I mean now... You have that H4 supply area markes as fresh, but it's NOT fresh. Remember to draw a horizontal line at the highest high and track it back to the past (remember the video on fresh vs original levels in first post). You will see it's a reaction to a previous level. Score is not 9 for set & forget, you need confirmation yes or yes. The upper supply level is original but a bit wide, that could be a nice spot to short. {image} {quote}
Oh i had it all wrong. I thought a fresh level was when price has not been back to it, thats it! (totally forgetting i have to track it back to its source).

So do i have this right?
An original level is the source of the move.
A fresh level is the source that hasn't yet had a pull back into it?

So maybe i have s/d in control wrong aswell.

Do i have the s/d in control correct below?

(Supply area 1.34338)
(demand area 1.28266)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 70 KB
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #875
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:53am Aug 7, 2013 3:53am
Hi,

In attach aud jpy. Weekly and daily demand level.

What do you think about that?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jpy w.PNG Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jpy d.PNG Size: 89 KB
  • #876
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:53am Aug 7, 2013 3:53am
hello panoramia
thanks for the answer
ok now view all picture and supply and demand is base system
i cannot english very good speak but your system very nice and ....

now analyze gold with system .

randolf
  • #877
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:01am Aug 7, 2013 4:01am
It's much better now. Remember that on the way up the euro formed other levels of D1 demand which are now in control, none of them fresh, BUT we don't want to sell near them, it's not higher odds.... See my D1 chart attached.

P.S. Watch the fresh vs original video again please, it's KEY to understanding how SD and the system work
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB


Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Oh i had it all wrong. I thought a fresh level was when price has not been back to it, thats it! (totally forgetting i have to track it back to its source). So do i have this right? An original level is the source of the move. A fresh level is the source that hasn't yet had a pull back into it? So maybe i have s/d in control wrong aswell. Do i have the s/d in control correct below? (Supply area 1.34338) (demand area 1.28266) {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #878
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:15am Aug 7, 2013 4:15am
Look at the D1 chart on GBPUSD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 132 KB


Would you buy on the H4 speedbump demand?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 126 KB


We're too high in the curve, 3 D1 supply areas stacked on top of each other. It's not the best look above current H4 demand area for a higher odds long trade. I don't have any trade there, waiting for some action.

Could the H4 demand area work? Yes, definetely. But location is not good for me.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #879
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:15am Aug 7, 2013 4:15am
Quoting panoramia
It's much better now. Remember that on the way up the euro formed other levels of D1 demand which are now in control, none of them fresh, BUT we don't want to sell near them, it's not higher odds.... See my D1 chart attached. P.S. Watch the fresh vs original video again please, it's KEY to understanding how SD and the system work {image} {quote}
Thanks Alfonso, i think i will have to. I'll watch it tonight. I was getting too focused on areas of massive rejection instead of choosing levels based on the specific rules.

I will correct my thinking fast and return. Theres probably no need to look at my trading plan then because it might be wrong if i havnt been drawing my levels 100% correct.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #880
  • Aug 7, 2013 5:12am Aug 7, 2013 5:12am
The H4 speedbump demand area on the pound did not hold as expected. It could have held, but since we were too high in the curve, it was not higher probabilities. There was some news at the moment price reached the area and it overshot the level, pound's inflation report marked in red at FF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 130 KB


Quoting panoramia
Look at the D1 chart on GBPUSD. {image} Would you buy on the H4 speedbump demand? {image} We're too high in the curve, 3 D1 supply areas stacked on top of each other. It's not the best look above current H4 demand area for a higher odds long trade. I don't have any trade there, waiting for some action. Could the H4 demand area work? Yes, definetely. But location is not good for me.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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