(binned per thread starter’s request) GEfx Trading Journal

I haven't been watching the $/CAD today, but thought I'd take a look at it again this evening. Here is an updated chart which can be compared to the chart posted yesterday. The PA today can be explained by looking at a USDX chart next to an oil chart. Anyway, I would not be interested in trading this until it is below 1.0344, or about 1.0410. There are many other opportunities to trade so I'll pass on this pair.

Gefx, thanks, I already closed the trade. There are easier opportunities...

It seems that you always enter at 50% or 61% and you write that you have a sl between 78% and 100%. Is it a mental sl or a hard sl? The entries around 50% or 61% are sometimes very good but often we get a retracement to the 78% or 100% (and even 5 pips more to kill the sitting ducks). In these cases the 50% seems to be like an entry with heavy dd and sometimes huge losses. If I use a sl between 78% and 100% the losses get smaller but I also kill a lot of trades which later would have turned into winners. How do you handle this?

First, I trade with hard stops, usually about 20-25 pips. As for the rest of your question: The idea is to enter trades as you described above, using fibs for entry, SL, and possibly targets (although my actual trading charts have better targets than the charts I post). The most significant part of my trading is the work that goes in to selecting the pairs to trade each day. I track about 15 pairs, and analyze each for market structure every days. It is this analysis that helps me narrow the list of pairs down to 2-3 that have the market structure to support a trade. All the other pairs that I reject each day will present trades as you described, but they all have a higher probability of failing as you described, and that is due to market structure that will not support the method. The whole thing of market structure is huge and would require more time than I have available to describe, but it is what you have to do to get a view of what the bankers may be up to. And, once you have it figured out and the trade is underway, you have to start piling on more trades to take advantage of the move. But that is a different topic all together. For example, I am in the E/A and G/A this morning, after trading the G/Y most of last night. The G/Y is off the list for now, and I am looking at the CAD crosses for possible addition to the list, but the list is already full for the day and I will probably skip them. Good trading to you and thanks for the question!

Not sure this example represents the question this morning but here is a chart from today to think about:

Update:

gefx, thanks. it looks so easy... ;-)

about the market structure: au seems to change direction on h4, we had a shs-formation and a strong move north. we are near weekly demand but we also have a heavy weekly supply in front of us. i would start to trade the pair long on pullbacks until 0.9150.

Well, there might be some trades as the pair works up this bear flag, maybe the next move goes to .9050 where it meets resistance, then to 9105/9120. I'd give it a look above 9120 to 9300. The bias remains down, so prudent MM is called for on longs until a breach of 9120. For me, the market structure says wait for 9210, unless there is nothing in the other 14 pairs and the AUD/$ is the only trade in town, and this current retracement in the AUD can be played out on the other crosses, like the GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD, for lots more pips.

Hi GEfx, it looks like a small consolidation on the upper channel and fibo retracement. The move from 1.4813 low can be over like a correction or near to the end or go retest the high and over if it's un impulse.

Sorry for the late reply. Yes, I think there is plenty of space on either side of the current PA so I will take it either way once it gets moving.

No charts today. Traded the EUR/AUD and the EUR/JPY south today, and have just exited both pairs. Entered the GBP/JPY a bit ago and am up about 25 pipa but will take it off soon at BE if it does not get moving within the next 10-20 mins. Have a great weekend!

Enjoy the weekend!

Here is a chart with my market structure analysis of the GBP/USD this morning and up to now. BTW, glad you got some pips from that trade today!

I try to trade 1 pair. It was EUR/USD but lately it's GBP/USD. I use EWT, channels, S/R, fibs and EMAs (10,20,50,200). Because it was Friday and price hit the wall (upper channel) - see my previous 60min chart, I was sure that will be a range day and a move to the previous support 1.5484 will be the next action. I think the next move (more that 51%) will be south despite the move till now looks like upper channel retest (previous resistance now support). Maybe Monday will show which direction will be.

EJ trades since last night, been a long but good night on this pair, with 4 trades running:

Just moved my stops to 129.86, protecting 217 pips

Stops are now at 130.01, protecting about 280 pips now. It's flying now so will adjust stops very soon and will stay right behind this surge up.

Took the first two trades off at 130.26, and will keep my stop on the last two at 130.01.

Took 1 more trade off at 130.31, moving the stop of the final trade to below 129.85, and will re-establish that last trade that I just took off at 130.01 with a stop at 129.85'ish (not exactly sure of that number yet). I've banked/protecting over 360 pips in this move, so nice trading day so far.

I don't know if this trades respect your method. First trade was on 50% retracement (1.5471) after the spike (news), stop under 78.6%. The other 3 trades was on 50% retracement with stop for all after a bar close under the trend line (1.5496, 1.5508, 1.5520). Close on all 4 trades was 1.5226 for a total of 109 pips.
After, I see that 61.8% retracement was better and the close for all 4 at 1.5541 was ideal - confluence of fibs : 78.6% retracement from high (1.5574) and a = c from low and -27.8% of last trade wasn't touched plus 2 shooting stars but I liked that trend line.

Well done. You traded right to the previous significant resistance level and did a nice job adding on as it went. keep moving your stops as it goes to minimize your risk and by the time you get to trade 3 and 4, the pips can really pile up! Good trading.