Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 43 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #841
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:10am Aug 6, 2013 3:10am
Planning a short trade on a H4 supply zone on EURAUD.

Price has reached a D1 supply area, it's reacting to it forming brand new areas of supply on H4/H1.
The D1 is in an uptrend, see that D1 demand areas are being respected and supply areas being violated. This trade could not be a big runner, its target around 1.4500, right at the breakout spot which also is a confluences with the D1 ascending trendline

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 147 KB


The entry would be on the H4 supply zone. The zone is too wide for my risk, so I have drilled it down to 40 pips. Price might no reach my entry price, but it's the maximum risk I'm going to take on a H4 level on the EURAUD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 144 KB


P.S. I am not being very active because I'm on a sort of holidays with my girlfriend, I have limited access to my charts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #842
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:12am Aug 6, 2013 3:12am
Hi,

attached my entry on usd cad sell.

As allways: D1 supply level, waiting on h1 to create new supply, and sell
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad daily.PNG Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad h1.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #843
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:15am Aug 6, 2013 3:15am
Congratulations Sekbor! Nice trade based on a confirmation entry, that's great!

You have chosen the confirmation type of entries, which is also great. We're here not to be the best traders in the world, or to feed our egos, we're here to make money money consistently. So congratulations again!

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Hi, attached my entry on usd cad sell. As allways: D1 supply level, waiting on h1 to create new supply, and sell {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #844
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:25am Aug 6, 2013 3:25am
Planning a short trade on H4 supply on AUDCAD.

The D1 chart has been respecting supply and violating demand, still room to higher timeframe demand areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 135 KB


Look at the Monthly chart, it looks like it has lots of room to keep on dropping further to 0.8942 where the MN proximal line is located.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 127 KB


My entry would be on the H4 chart, right at the D1 supply area. There is a level where price is right now, it looks like a nice level to have a short at, but AUDUSD is rallying from a deeper level on the Monthly demand area and I prefer to go for the extreme.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 134 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #845
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:26am Aug 6, 2013 3:26am
Quoting panoramia
Congratulations Sekbor! Nice trade based on a confirmation entry, that's great! You have chosen the confirmation type of entries, which is also great. We're here not to be the best traders in the world, or to feed our egos, we're here to make money money consistently. So congratulations again! Alfonso {quote}
Thank You Alfonso

That is because i prefer that kind of entry. It gives me another confirmation, and more confidence that the trade can be nice with minimal risk. My SL in this case was only 11 pips. I think (as you said) we should be looknig for most valuable trades according to risk - reward ratio.
  • #846
  • Aug 6, 2013 3:55am Aug 6, 2013 3:55am
Quoting panoramia
Planning a short trade on a H4 supply zone on EURAUD. Price has reached a D1 supply area, it's reacting to it forming brand new areas of supply on H4/H1. The D1 is in an uptrend, see that D1 demand areas are being respected and supply areas being violated. This trade could not be a big runner, its target around 1.4500, right at the breakout spot which also is a confluences with the D1 ascending trendline {image} The entry would be on the H4 supply zone. The zone is too wide for my risk, so I have drilled it down to 40 pips. Price might no reach...
Hi Alfonso, i have the same area but can you tell me why your using the high (wick) of the bar before the up bar on h4 chart?
thanks wayne
  • #847
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:08am Aug 6, 2013 4:08am
Hi Wayne,

I don't understand very well what you are trying to tell me. Can you please upload a screenshot of your entry and the difference on the up bar? I don't know the exact area you are pointing out.

Thanks Wayne.
Alfonso

Quoting wbh
{quote} Hi Alfonso, i have the same area but can you tell me why your using the high (wick) of the bar before the up bar on h4 chart? thanks wayne
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #848
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:40am Aug 6, 2013 4:40am
Now I am looking at usd chf.

We are close to nice d1 demand area. I will try to catch some up move there.

It would be perfect if the price also hits weekly demand proximal line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf daily.PNG Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf weekly.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #849
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:55am Aug 6, 2013 4:55am
Quoting panoramia
Hi Wayne, I don't understand very well what you are trying to tell me. Can you please upload a screenshot of your entry and the difference on the up bar? I don't know the exact area you are pointing out. Thanks Wayne. Alfonso {quote}
Sorry here is a pic with text on it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eah4sup.png Size: 116 KB
  • #850
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:58am Aug 6, 2013 4:58am
I got triggered short on a H4 supply level on EURJPY.

As you can see on the attached chart, price hit the D1 supply area (yelloo trendlines), there was a nice H4 original supply level there that I had planned last week but I cancelled it due to the news. I loaded my MT yesterday for the first time and the level had worked, but there was another opportunity lower as you could see, so trying this one.

Not being greedy on this trade... Let's see what happens. I am not being too active since I'm in a sort of holidays, we'll see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 132 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #851
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:02am Aug 6, 2013 5:02am
Don't quite understand the statement on your attachment. I used that high since it's the highest high of the H4 speedbump. There is another one a little bit higher, but this one is the breakout area.

Alfonso
Quoting wbh
{quote} Sorry here is a pic with text on it {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #852
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:13am Aug 6, 2013 5:13am
Nice work Sebkor, Nice clean charts, well explained.
If you can write text on the chart, it will help you when you look back at the charts later.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #853
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:18am Aug 6, 2013 5:18am
Quoting panoramia
Don't quite understand the statement on your attachment. I used that high since it's the highest high of the H4 speedbump. There is another one a little bit higher, but this one is the breakout area. Alfonso {quote}
Ok got it you included that in SPB, thanks
  • #854
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:53am Aug 6, 2013 6:53am
Hi everyone,

Alfonso, thanks for your thread. It's very valuable.

I've read the first post and I saw some videos, and I noted that in your post (and in your spreadsheet) you measure the curve from proximal to proximal lines, but in some videos, you measure the curve using distal lines.

What am I missing?
What is the difference? and
when to use each approach?

Thanks in advance.
  • #855
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:00am Aug 6, 2013 7:00am
Hi Jsr!

I had done the calculations incorrectly in the veginning. The right way to do it is to measure the curve from the proximal lines. If measured from the distal you will also include penetration into the higher tf zones, and the % wont be correct. I don't want to buy inisde the d1 supply, measuring from the distal lines would give many false calculations. I will edit first post nclude that. It's logical to measure it from the proximal lines.

Hope that is clear now!
Alfonso

Quoting jsr
Hi everyone, Alfonso, thanks for your thread. It's very valuable. I've read the first post and I saw some videos, and I noted that in your post (and in your spreadsheet) you measure the curve from proximal to proximal lines, but in some videos, you measure the curve using distal lines. What am I missing? What is the difference? and when to use each approach? Thanks in advance.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #856
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:10am Aug 6, 2013 7:10am
Quoting panoramia
Hi Jsr! I had done the calculations incorrectly in the veginning. The right way to do it is to measure the curve from the proximal lines. If measured from the distal you will also include penetration into the higher tf zones, and the % wont be correct. I don't want to buy inisde the d1 supply, measuring from the distal lines would give many false calculations. I will edit first post nclude that. It's logical to measure it from the proximal lines. Hope that is clear now! Alfonso {quote}

Thanks Alfonso, I see your point.
  • #857
  • Edited 8:20am Aug 6, 2013 7:52am | Edited 8:20am
I am thinking of selling this Eurcad baby because it hits the daily supply
I'll find the opportunity from H1 or M15

edit:Got in due to the weakening Euro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcadh4.png Size: 55 KB
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #858
  • Aug 6, 2013 9:09am Aug 6, 2013 9:09am
Quoting panoramia
Planning a short trade on a H4 supply zone on EURAUD. Price has reached a D1 supply area, it's reacting to it forming brand new areas of supply on H4/H1. The D1 is in an uptrend, see that D1 demand areas are being respected and supply areas being violated. This trade could not be a big runner, its target around 1.4500, right at the breakout spot which also is a confluences with the D1 ascending trendline {image} The entry would be on the H4 supply zone. The zone is too wide for my risk, so I have drilled it down to 40 pips. Price might no reach...
Hi Alphonso,
Just wondering why you chose the demand level 1.43369/1.42917 rather than the one above as i have indicated on your chart?

please keep up the good work!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 110 KB
  • #859
  • Aug 6, 2013 9:56am Aug 6, 2013 9:56am
Hi,

I thint that we will have a nice opportunity on cad chf.
Price is in range of weekly and daily demand levels.

Once price reacts on h1/h4 timeframes, i will observe some new demand levels to minimize the risk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad chf daily.PNG Size: 98 KB
  • #860
  • Aug 6, 2013 9:58am Aug 6, 2013 9:58am
Quoting sebkor6
Hi, attached my entry on usd cad sell. As allways: D1 supply level, waiting on h1 to create new supply, and sell {image} {image}
Hello sebkor6! I also took this level but it a BE for me! Congratulation!
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