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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,881
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:28am Jul 30, 2013 10:28am
Possible HEW 4H GOLD Chart [update]:
Cheers,
U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130730_4H[2]Spot Gold.png Size: 129 KB
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  • #5,882
  • Edited 4:19pm Jul 30, 2013 4:03pm | Edited 4:19pm
HEW 1H GOLD Chart Fib. Projections:
[TP zone 1430 - 1448.9]
Cheers,
U2

Chart Edit:
3rd Fib. Projection added
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Click to Enlarge Name: 130730_1H[3]Spot Gold.png Size: 101 KB
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  • #5,883
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:48pm Jul 30, 2013 4:48pm
HEW 1H Chart wave (iii) from 1208.4
Cheers,
U2
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Click to Enlarge Name: 130730_1H[4]Spot Gold.png Size: 175 KB
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  • #5,884
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:13am Jul 31, 2013 8:13am
Quoting hirenfxtrade
Hello all traders, For all your replies and appreciations on my posts....., Gbp/Usd on elliott wave perspective could be on very sharp rise for this week, It might cross 1.57 If you are keep geting divergences keep buying.. (above is invalid if it breaks below 1.52600) (FYI:This is not a gamblers paradise & [edit:- not like pandora's box (laughs)]
Gbp/Usd has break below 1.52600
As I said, up side trend is invalid

--
My count needed a break above 1.57500
Well, it is still fairly possible since eur/usd hasn't break down like gbp/usd, this means very high volatility being experienced by gbp/usd

Today's FOMC and tomorrow's GBPs NEWS Must be considered before entering or deciding long term views.
  • #5,885
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:41am Aug 1, 2013 2:41am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} Thanks This is futures contract so there is something carrying cost..(Not sure how it works exactly) So prices are not identical with Forex.
Carry costs are based on interest rate differentials...

Well, we've reached the target area but not as accurately as an impulsive target should be. USDCHF was in the right range but I don't like it and sorry Hiren but there was no way Cable was going to break higher this week to 1.5700... The ratios weren't supporting that. We're now faced with a rather strange situation that unless the EURUSD projection happens to be wayward by 10 points... and that GBPUSD somehow plays catch up as it's lagging well behind the other two Europeans... the alternative (corrective/consolidation) structure I referred to as the other count I was also following could develop - but that looks a very painful one for the coming few weeks so I'd suggest some care. There's also an outside chance that the larger Dollar bullish cycles may kick in earlier than I expected... but I need more development before really making that a real alternative at this point.

Oh, there's one other option that could maintain the impulsive structure - and that's a blip up to 1.3380 (and CHF to 0.9197) though where that places GBPUSD is tough as it has little room on the downside before it reverses lower substantially... so it has to make a strong push higher today...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,886
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:51am Aug 2, 2013 7:51am
Cable shakes up and on friday!

What I was looking for was a sharp fifth wave extension (with fifth fifth's extended - that is why I counted whole week for these 5th)
But it look like it has form something else..

Again, I was very positive (91%) about cable breaking up 1.57

If it is happening Cable might be experiencing third wave instead fifths...
  • #5,887
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:19am Aug 2, 2013 8:19am
Quoting hirenfxtrade
Cable shakes up and on friday! What I was looking for was a sharp fifth wave extension (with fifth fifth's extended - that is why I counted whole week for these 5th) But it look like it has form something else.. Again, I was very positive (91%) about cable breaking up 1.57 If it is happening Cable might be experiencing third wave instead fifths...
IF it is... then it's a deep Wave -b- of Wave -iii-. (that's why it couldn't go up to 1.57 this week.) The move back to 1.5750 is my favoured view also as it could keep the Europeans in correlation. The alternative is further painful consolidation and a rather disjointed structure across all three...

However, there are still some fun & games in between as EUR and CHF have not completed their Dollar bullish corrections...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,888
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:42am Aug 2, 2013 8:42am
Guys

I for one was expecting more downside in an impulsive manner. This up move doesn't change anything in my view that we are going below 1.4200 until 1.5430 is taken out. I was looking for a strong impulsive 5 wave down move. Until proven wrong by price this is wave 2 of that down move. BTW my EW experience is rudimentary.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,889
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:37pm Aug 2, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} IF it is... then it's a deep Wave -b- of Wave -iii-. (that's why it couldn't go up to 1.57 this week.) The move back to 1.5750 is my favoured view also as it could keep the Europeans in correlation. The alternative is further painful consolidation and a rather disjointed structure across all three... However, there are still some fun & games in between as EUR and CHF have not completed their Dollar bullish corrections...
I am sorry Ian, but Sharp 'B' could be possible only if There is Shallow A.
I can see that its opposite of 45 degree to the right side fall (if it is A)

Also, Sharp wave B is only possible if A is having its B wave corrected more than 50 fibs
Anyway, I would like to wait than see
  • #5,890
  • Edited 2:17pm Aug 2, 2013 2:04pm | Edited 2:17pm
My simple XAUUSD H4 chart and EURUSD 720 Min. chart.
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  • #5,891
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:35pm Aug 2, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting hirenfxtrade
{quote} I am sorry Ian, but Sharp 'B' could be possible only if There is Shallow A. I can see that its opposite of 45 degree to the right side fall (if it is A) Also, Sharp wave B is only possible if A is having its B wave corrected more than 50 fibs Anyway, I would like to wait than see
"Sharp 'B' could be possible only if There is Shallow A."
I really can't understand why.

Actually, I think it's normally the other way round.
Let's say Wave -a- of Wave -iii- reaches moderately close to the Wave -iii- target. If Wave -b- had been shallow then the Wave -c- would have to be less than 66.7%. Therefore, Wave -b- would have to be deep. It doesn't always have to be like that and particularly in flat/ expanded flat Wave C's where this happens more often. It's like the Wave -b- is an elastic wave that can absorb uncertainty in the market but still maintain an impulsive structure. Equally, I do sometimes see extremely brief, almost non-existent Wave -b- of Wave -iii-. These guys can be very tricky.

Anyway, right now there is a fine line between bullish & bearish outcomes but the good thing is that USDCHF and EURUSD have pretty well defined Dollar resistance zones so we know where the line between the two lies.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,892
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:53pm Aug 2, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} "Sharp 'B' could be possible only if There is Shallow A." I really can't understand why. Actually, I think it's normally the other way round. Let's say Wave -a- of Wave -iii- reaches moderately close to the Wave -iii- target. If Wave -b- had been shallow then the Wave -c- would have to be less than 66.7%. Therefore, Wave -b- would have to be deep. It doesn't always have to be like that and particularly in flat/ expanded flat Wave C's where this happens more often. It's like the Wave -b- is an elastic wave that can absorb uncertainty in...
I think its some kind of pattern rules fixed already there.
Below pic of Eur/Usd around sep 2012 to nov 2012.
Red a-b-c(Zigzags)
I think on one would like say it was impulse or something else rather than abc, we are sure it was a-b-c, it has to be

Now, red wave a is shallow but it is straight fall .. This rules out for red b 'not to be sharp'
you can see red b is departed into abc ( since a was straight fall)
But overall, you can see red b is having volume ( just because red a was shallow)

And after that there was red wave c.
And after that that was bit very sharp rise to 137
Attached Image
  • #5,893
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:57pm Aug 2, 2013 2:57pm
Well, while Ian is around, two attempts to catch what is happening on Euro.. It is scary to dig in 1m or 5m charts but 15m charts i have two promising counts which lead me to look for one more leg down for the upcoming week. What you guys think?:nerd:
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  • #5,894
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:01pm Aug 2, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting hirenfxtrade
{quote} I think its some kind of pattern rules fixed already there. Below pic of Eur/Usd around sep 2012 to nov 2012. Red a-b-c(Zigzags) I think on one would like say it was impulse or something else rather than abc, we are sure it was a-b-c, it has to be Now, red wave a is shallow but it is straight fall .. This rules out for red b 'not to be sharp' you can see red b is departed into abc ( since a was straight fall) But overall, you can see red b is having volume ( just because red a was shallow) And after that there was red wave c. And after that...
But that's not a deep Wave b of Wave iii... That's just a zigzag correction.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,895
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:09pm Aug 2, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} But that's not a deep Wave b of Wave iii... That's just a zigzag correction.
LOL



What I meant was,
Gbp/usd recent fall is 'sharp'
Thus, today's sharp rise shouldn't be b
  • #5,896
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:22pm Aug 2, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting hirenfxtrade
{quote} LOL What I meant was, Gbp/usd recent fall is 'sharp' Thus, today's sharp rise shouldn't be b
Equally LOL

We're talking about the fall being a deep Wave -b- of Wave -iii-.... once it is complete the Wave -c- of Wave -iii- will develop.
See: http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot....f-wave-3s.html
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,897
  • Edited 9:34am Aug 4, 2013 9:22am | Edited 9:34am
HEW DLY Chart:
Currently in a/b correction,
of wave (i)?
Cheers,
U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130802_DLY[1]Spot Gold.png Size: 100 KB
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  • #5,898
  • Edited 4:04pm Aug 4, 2013 3:50pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting Uturn2
HEW DLY Chart: Currently in a/b correction, of wave (i)? Cheers, U2 {image}
HEW GOLD 4H Chart:
Wave (i) a/b correction complete?
Wave c of (i) commenced?
Cheers,
U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130802_4h[1]spot gold.png Size: 91 KB
Attached Image
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  • #5,899
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:49pm Aug 4, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting Uturn2
HEW DLY Chart: Currently in a/b correction, of wave (i)? Cheers, U2 {image}
I think you'll find that count isn't valid. Wave -iii- is never less than 176.4% (or falls short by 1%-2%). I also suggest considering researching into the higher degree bearish count - the downside projections and whether this still may be a correction.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,900
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:46am Aug 5, 2013 12:46am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} I think you'll find that count isn't valid. Wave -iii- is never less than 176.4% (or falls short by 1%-2%). I also suggest considering researching into the higher degree bearish count - the downside projections and whether this still may be a correction.
Thanks Ian,
I was wondering about the length of wave -iii- of a.
I measured it longer than wave -i-,
but of course it is way short of 176%.
Cheers,
U2
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
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