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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #3,081
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:30am Aug 2, 2013 2:30am
Quoting milam
{quote} Stopped out, I will try again.
It seems one more of these crazy fridays and so also stop hunting...abrupt price movements seems possible today.
  • #3,082
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:32am Aug 2, 2013 2:32am
UpTrend at levels above 3417 ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,083
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:34am Aug 2, 2013 2:34am
Quoting Forexcube
EURTRY, Weekly, 2013 August 02 Long(er) Term Carry Trade Short @ 2.5767 (2x 1/10), Targets @ 2.5122, @ 2.3530 {image}

  • #3,084
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:35am Aug 2, 2013 2:35am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} It seems one more of these crazy fridays and so also stop hunting...abrupt price movements seems possible today.
Many big boys will be pre-positioning for the NFP number.
They use the employment sub-components of manufacturing and services PMIs as well as job-cut index and the jobless claims report to try and guesstimate the NFP number. Then they place their bets. So until the NFP number is released, expect small sudden movements in either direction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,085
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:35am Aug 2, 2013 2:35am
EURUSD, Monthly, 2013 August 03
I expect a range of 1.3010-1.3485 in august.
Let's see end of the month how long this candle have been shaped out.
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  • #3,086
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:40am Aug 2, 2013 2:40am
Quoting milam
{quote} Weekly {image}
Of the most interesting to me is that you suggest the level of Buy. And you begin to argue about the trend. Reasons for taking a short or long position are different.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6863239
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,087
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:41am Aug 2, 2013 2:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Many big boys will be pre-positioning for the NFP number. They use the employment sub-components of manufacturing and services PMIs as well as job-cut index and the jobless claims report to try and guesstimate the NFP number. Then they place their bets. So until the NFP number is released, expect small sudden movements in either direction.


Oh yes! The economic data (news) will influence today's time curve.
  • #3,088
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:41am Aug 2, 2013 2:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} In that case, I wish you a million laughs. I just think it is a huge risk to take when all the sub-indicators leading up to the NFP are pointing to a much better number. However, the way the market has been reasoning lately, we might even see 1.35xx
Thanks for you comment.

For me the only valid indicator is price, all the rest are just ideas of how one needs to tame his anxiety towards taking a position and been unable to read price action.

Trading is an art form based on probability, it is not a science. If I can risk very little for huge gains stacking on the way reducing my risk to none, I will have done my job. It does not work all the time, but when it does I always laugh but quietly, I can assure you that.

This way is a way that suits my personality and does not necessary suit everybody else, I am only sharing and I do not mean any disrespect.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,089
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:43am Aug 2, 2013 2:43am
Long 1.3214 (3 x 1/10), Targets @ 1.3247 (mR1), @ 1.3266 (DR1), @ 1.3291 (mR1)
(Hedging orders at higher prices could be executed, but I will wait therefore).
I have reduced my risk (quantity of orders) today.

The sun is shining & I will go in the garden for basking in the sun, now.
Let's see where the market will be in a couple of hours later.
See you later.
FXcube
  • #3,090
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:44am Aug 2, 2013 2:44am
Quoting godim
{quote} Of the most interesting to me is that you suggest the level of Buy. And you begin to argue about the trend. Reasons for taking a short or long position are different. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6863239
Sorry I am not arguing, I thought you showed your view and I shared mine. Not arguing and sorry if you felt that way.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,091
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:54am Aug 2, 2013 2:54am
EURUSD, H1, 2013 August 02
If the hourly candle will shape to a Hammer over the middle line of Bollinger Band odds for more Longs could be in favor.
If not ...downside movements till ~1.3178 (DS1), 1.3157 (mS2) or in case of neg. econ. data ~1.3139 (DS2) could be expected.

This is an example where you don't have to look at the CCI Hook (if so you have to go short). So beginners should learn how market indicators should be interpreted in detail of the dominant market environment.
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  • #3,092
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:56am Aug 2, 2013 2:56am
Quoting milam
{quote} Sorry I am not arguing, I thought you showed your view and I shared mine. Not arguing and sorry if you felt that way.
This development is possible.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,093
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:15am Aug 2, 2013 3:15am
Quoting godim
{quote} This development is possible. {image}
Yes very possible

This is my 1hTF with candle charts.

Sometime it is convenient to distinguish candle/bars in only two types: trending and raging. The candle marked 1 is the only considered trending in my view, all the following ones are ranging, now you know better then I do that in a ranging market it is best to buy the low and sell the high, if you go to the 4h tf you will see some kind of engulfing/ranging bar, which makes it a bit discussible.

Lets say if was a clear engulfing with a shaved closed, buying a retacement of that bar @ around 31.2, 50 and 61.8 would be a good buying with the indication of the appropriate PA without risking too much because if price revisit your level, your judgement could be wrong.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,094
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:16am Aug 2, 2013 3:16am
Quoting milam
{quote} Thanks for you comment. For me the only valid indicator is price, all the rest are just ideas of how one needs to tame his anxiety towards taking a position and been unable to read price action. Trading is an art form based on probability, it is not a science. If I can risk very little for huge gains stacking on the way reducing my risk to none, I will have done my job. It does not work all the time, but when it does I always laugh but quietly, I can assure you that. This way is a way that suits my personality and does not necessary suit...
Fully understood before your response. I was just saying how I felt about the trade. To be totally honest, I do wish that price will go up to 1.3410/15 area because it should be the ultimate place for a fantastic long term short position. However, I just don't feel it is a good risk (for me) to go long before NFP is released... Not just because it could fly either way and quickly reverse, but more so because from now until the release time, there will be many spikes in either direction, so placing a tight enough stop loss seem to me like an invitation to get burned.

ADD: I would like to also add that sometimes the hardest decision is not whether to go long or short, but rather whether to take a trade or remain sidelined.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,095
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:24am Aug 2, 2013 3:24am
Quoting godim
{quote} This development is possible. {image}
Experiment a little story. Already the sixth hour the market can not or does not want to break that level. Ask you why? One explanation may be at the H4 chart. See above. But another explanation may be associated with cable or another currency pair? What do you think?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Forexcube says there are reasons to think for long.

EDIT: While I write and translate price broke above the level, sorry.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,096
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:28am Aug 2, 2013 3:28am
Quoting godim
{quote} Experiment a little story. Already the sixth hour the market can not or does not want to break that level. Ask you why? One explanation may be at the H4 chart. See above. But another explanation may be associated with cable or another currency pair? What do you think? {image} Forexcube says there are reasons to think for long. EDIT: While I write and translate price broke above the level, sorry.
I think it is because volume is very low and the market makers are waiting for the news.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,097
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:35am Aug 2, 2013 3:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Fully understood before your response. I was just saying how I felt about the trade. To be totally honest, I do wish that price will go up to 1.3410/15 area because it should be the ultimate place for a fantastic long term short position. However, I just don't feel it is a good risk (for me) to go long before NFP is released... Not just because it could fly either way and quickly reverse, but more so because from now until the release time, there will be many spikes in either direction, so placing a...
Pip

I agree 100% with you and mostly with the underlying one.

I do not trade the day of NFP and sometime all the week, because I feel the market is waiting for some direction and my judgement on it is not at its best reading PA.

In the case of that particulate trade, I felt prices wanted to revisit the recent high, (prices reached the 61.8 of the completed weekly candle and on the 4h tf a bullish engulfing kind of candle formed and I bought a retracement of that) and buying at that level would guarantee me to move my SL to BE once reached the recent high and that is why I took it, also as you know nothing is sure in forex and to be honest I was hoping to get a bit lucky if............do you know what I mean?

And thank you for you comments, I truly appreciate it. Keep it up.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #3,098
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:38am Aug 2, 2013 3:38am
Quoting godim
{quote} This development is possible. {image}
Sorry, only NeutralSlope.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #3,099
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:40am Aug 2, 2013 3:40am
Quoting milam
{quote} Pip I agree 100% with you and mostly with the underlying one. I do not trade the day of NFP and sometime all the week, because I feel the market is waiting for some direction and my judgement on it is not at its best reading PA. In the case of that particulate trade, I felt prices wanted to revisit the recent high, (prices reached the 61.8 of the completed weekly candle and on the 4h tf a bullish engulfing kind of candle formed and I bought a retracement of that) and buying at that level would guarantee me to move my SL to BE once reached...
Cheers Milam
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,100
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:42am Aug 2, 2013 3:42am
Quoting godim
{quote} Sorry, only NeutralSlope. {image}
UpTrend is on M15
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
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