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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,581
  • Edited 5:52am Jul 30, 2013 5:31am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting adler
{quote} Many Thanks for taking time for replying. I really appreciate that, but sorry not very affirmative (might/could/would). If SM wants to invest Million pounds will they invest with (might/could/would) in mind -- I strongly believe they are 80% right most of the time. They beat the crowd most of the time except few unknown circumstances...
Heh.. I wish I would have book marked the article I found in bloomberg a few months ago. It basically said that goldman sachs forex groupfor the first quarter of 2013 had 0 losses, and the 4th quarter of 2012 either 1 or 2 losses total. So yea way above 80%.

For us all we have to go off of is PA and volume which we do not have all of the information that professionals have. All we know is when they are active. VSA tells us that they tend to buy on high volume down bars. They also sell on high volume down bars. So yea in VSA there are a lot of mights/coulds/woulds. Experience and a lot of screen time and you will start to get a feel of the market. I believe you can only be taught so much, experience will take you so much further.

Quoting adler
If i know whether it will range NOW or trend NOW (NOW -- Magic word) , then I and you would be rich by now, simply looking at charts on hind sight it is easy to say it is ranging or trending , What is important is whether I am able to make money on that day by reading charts as SM does!!! And I am looking for any tool which would get into me to the market 80% of time.
Now is a dangerous word in forex, Now leads to be impatient and making rash choices, patience and waiting for exactly what you want to see and where you want to see are the magic words. But back to your point, its very easy to see if the pair is ranging or trending now. If you need to, throw a MA on your chart and ask yourself if the MA flat or angled?

Quoting adler
So you get out just by seeing a massive bar, what if it is bearish continuation!!????
I said getting out of bear mode.. By that I meant stop shorting the market and lock in some profit.

Quoting adler
You watch>???? your in the wrong end of the market already wasting a good trend move down,
You butchered my quote here so I am not sure what you took out of that..

But yup by 7/5 I had cashed out of most of my long term short positions. I was not ready for any longs positions. Price proceeded to fall another 40 pips below the low of 7/5. I have no idea where the bottom would be on 7/5, I know its close, but it could be 30 pips away or 300 pips away. All I know is its not ready to move up yet.

Quoting adler
I trade 1 Hr and 1 Hr only - You made 40 pips after loosing 200 pip down move..!!! What is the confirmation to go long? Just huge candles? (hind sight view i would say nothing to confirm in the charts).
I am not sure where you got 40 or 200 but the point I was making was that there was some strength in the market, the MA on the 1hr was angling up, I was implying that someone could have zoomed into a smaller TF and bought the strength. Me personally I trade 6 pairs. On 7/5 I was trading intraday AJ.


Quoting adler
Will you invest huge money on this massive bar with confidence on 1 hr chart!. {quote} "TOO late what if it fakes out like before", This is not buy low so none of the explanations made any money except u were running like me on the wrong end of market hoping hoping it would reverse and keep betting. Sorry thanks for your time, but VSA did not help me to get into the right end of the market {quote} If SM does not know why will they invest millions of pound(gamble)??? Regards Mohamed
I am not sure what to make of this.. but basically on this move I ended up buying on 7/15 at 3060 due to the strength from 7/12 and bought again 7/18 at 3105, holding about 60% of the position now.
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  • #24,582
  • Jul 30, 2013 5:42am Jul 30, 2013 5:42am
Quoting Hummel
{quote} Hi SimpleDev What do You mean 'how climatic volume is'? Amount of volume? Volume on 7/4 and 7/5 is greater than on 7/9. 'and how price reacts to these bars'? 7/4 and 7/5 - massive volume down wide spread bars with bullish reactions 7/9 - massive volume down wide spread bar with bearish reaction EDIT: Interesting - on 6E Futures chart volume is greatest on 7/9 {image}
By how climatic I mean the amount of volume. If I see volume that is higher than the past 2 or 3 days I would not consider that as a trend changer, but lets say that I see volume that is higher than the past 2 weeks. I would be anticipating a trend reversal.

As far as how price reacts let me use this example its perfect. 6/19, the volume on this bar is massive climatic even.. But do you see how price reacts to it?
As price moves up we see an UT, for this as soon as I saw a solid close beneath the low of this bar, I would be looking to short this.

The 7/4 7/5 and 7/9 days there were all climatic, the point is as they are flags telling you the trend is going to change. We had already had a nice down move behind us, so there isn't a need for heavy selling.. price already had momentum to the short side.
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  • #24,583
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:05am Jul 30, 2013 6:05am
Quote
For us all we have to go off of is PA and volume which we do not have all of the information that professionals have. All we know is when they are active. VSA tells us that they tend to buy on high volume down bars. They also sell on high volume down bars. So yea in VSA there are a lot of mights/coulds/woulds. Experience and a lot of screen time and you will start to get a feel of the market. I believe you can only be taught so much, experience will take you so much further.

I coin has 2 sides (win/loss 1/2) - VSA(might/would/could) is no different than, anything which does not build your confidence to get your self to more than
50% confidence level is waste of time

Quote
Now is a dangerous word in forex, Now leads to be impatient and making rash choices, patience and waiting for exactly what you want to see and where you want to see are the magic words. But back to your point, its very easy to see if the pair is ranging or trending now[highlight=#f4f6f9][color=#000000][font=Verdana]. If you need to, throw a MA on your chart and ask yourself if the MA flat or...

MA will say FLAT now and the moment u think it is RANGE and enter then Price breaks and goes up and forms a trend. MA analysis is another LAGGING INDICATOR which is as I said is useful for only HINDSIGHT Analysis and does not give you any confidence on your trade!


FINAL QUESTION CAN YOU EXPLAIN VSA without MIGHT/WOULD/COULD/ and to predict the market 80% of the time right ?

As I said anything which cannot build your confidence in your trade more than 55% it is a waste of time.
  • #24,584
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:34am Jul 30, 2013 6:34am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} If I see volume that is higher than the past 2 or 3 days I would not consider that as a trend changer, but lets say that I see volume that is higher than the past 2 weeks. I would be anticipating a trend reversal.
Thanks SimpleDev for Your explanation, but on Your chart volume that is higher than the past 2 weeks is on 7/5 and after that we have only retracement, not a trend change (but I thing it was buying on this day, beginning of accumulartion phase).
Another example - on 6/19 we have trend change, but before this we have no climatic up bars with volume higher than the past 2 weeks.
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Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} As far as how price reacts let me use this example its perfect. 6/19, the volume on this bar is massive climatic even.. But do you see how price reacts to it? As price moves up we see an UT, for this as soon as I saw a solid close beneath the low of this bar, I would be looking to short this. The 7/4 7/5 and 7/9 days there were...
So You mean, we have to not see SOW bars after massive volume down bar?
  • #24,585
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:09am Jul 30, 2013 7:09am
Quoting adler
{quote} FINAL QUESTION CAN YOU EXPLAIN VSA without MIGHT/WOULD/COULD/ and to predict the market 80% of the time right ? As I said anything which cannot build your confidence in your trade more than 55% it is a waste of time.
It sounds like you are more suited for a mechanical system..

To answer your question.. No I can't explain VSA without MIGHT/WOULD/COULD, VSA is subjective.. Take a look at that 6/19 chart. By all techincal VSA accounts it is a selling climax a sign of strength. But it turns into a MAJOR sign of weakness and a reason to short the market. That is why it *could* be a sign of weakness, but take into account the background and the reaction to this bar it then becomes a sign of weakness.

Like I said the way I am understanding your thought process is you want black and white, that is not VSA. As far as the Win rate.. its a subjective way of trading everyone will have different win rates based on how they read the market. I can honestly and personally say VSA can give you better than 80% win rates but it depends on how well you can read and fill in the blanks .. the blanks meaning the MIGHT/WOULD/COULDs.

Quoting adler
MA will say FLAT now and the moment u think it is RANGE and enter then Price breaks and goes up and forms a trend. MA analysis is another LAGGING INDICATOR which is as I said is useful for only HINDSIGHT Analysis and does not give you any confidence on your trade!
Here is an attached chart of the pair I trade the post. You are right!!Damn that lagging indicator only shows the trend for a matter of days!
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  • #24,586
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:23am Jul 30, 2013 7:23am
Quoting Hummel
{quote} Thanks SimpleDev for Your explanation, but on Your chart volume that is higher than the past 2 weeks is on 7/5 and after that we have only retracement, not a trend change (but I thing it was buying on this day, beginning of accumulartion phase). Another example - on 6/19 we have trend change, but before this we have no climatic up bars with volume higher than the past 2 weeks. {image} {quote} So You mean, we have to not see SOW bars after massive volume down bar?
Lets start with 7/5, we see massive volume after a significant down move. We know that strength is coming in, but the trend is not going to change in a day, it needs time. 7/5 shows us that we need to be on our guard for a trend change. From here we are preparing for longs, finding s/r finding possible TP targets and sitting on our hands. Once the trend changes and PROVES to us that 7/5 was indeed buying then we can start opening our longs. 7/5 was strength but we did not see the mark up till 7/10.

6/19 had weakness in the background.. 6/19 dwarfs the volume of the previous days.

The weakness started back on 6/6 and you can see as price moved up it was hit with supply. You have to be mindful of the trend in forex. But I am not going to lie, I sold GU on 6/10, which had the same weakness as EU on 6/6 and got stopped out... But hey thats trading.
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  • #24,587
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:24am Jul 30, 2013 7:24am
Good to see vsa and wyckoff is still working. Some strenth with the trend, testing, basic test on volume. all the nice stuff

Chart on the right is 15m eu
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  • #24,588
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:38am Jul 30, 2013 7:38am
Yeah it takes a good basic understanding of vsa and for me wyckoff, combines with some consistent screen time and patience. That is what will make you accuracy go over 80%.

Then it also depends if your risk reward is 1 to 3. It will be very tough to be 80% accurate. If your 50% accurate with 3 to 1 Risk reward. You coining it. A system shoudn't give you confidence!, you yourself must have the discipline to execute whatever system till your sure it works or not.

I know vsa works, but I also know I need to consistently year in year out trade till I have enough screen time and can be successful.
  • #24,589
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:52am Jul 30, 2013 7:52am
Quoting pete148
Good to see vsa and wyckoff is still working. Some strenth with the trend, testing, basic test on volume. all the nice stuff Chart on the right is 15m eu {image} {image}
Nice job Pete.. just showing a zoomed out view of your 15m. Yesterday US session bought EU, then in late Asia today EU was bought again..


Played cable today, nice weakness on 1hr, I don't see any reason to cover the short just yet.
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  • #24,590
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:55am Jul 30, 2013 11:55am
Hi SimpleDev,

I was just wondering what timeframe you based your decision on with regards to your GBPUSD trade as it really working out well.

Did you use the 1hr for any VSA signs etc and used 15min for entry? Also, is this your preferred checking method?

Thanks in advance.

Pip Singh
  • #24,591
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:26pm Jul 30, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting Pip Singh
Hi SimpleDev, I was just wondering what timeframe you based your decision on with regards to your GBPUSD trade as it really working out well. Did you use the 1hr for any VSA signs etc and used 15min for entry? Also, is this your preferred checking method? Thanks in advance. Pip Singh
Cable was an intraday trade for me.. There are two ways I currently use to look for my entries.

First way is like the 15m EU chart I posted above. Using only a 15m chart and watching for clear signs of strength/weakness from the previous US session and then looking for Asia or LO to show the same signs of strength/weakness then I will look for an entry.

The other way is using 1hr for background and trend. One cable the UT and and the downtrend on the 1hr I knew I was only looking for shorts on cable, attached 15m chart. Up bar on increased volume, then another up bar on low volume and the UT for entry and closed the position on the bar marked in red.

Like I said in my reply to adler, AJ is my favorite pair to trade.. when it starts trending you will see it can trend for days on the 1hr. EU is a bit choppy right now may not be a bad idea to watch other pairs.
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  • #24,592
  • Jul 31, 2013 5:25am Jul 31, 2013 5:25am
Any wyckofians, would you agree my marking of the chart as accurate?
And that we good be in a good spot to long any moment now?
15m eu
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  • #24,593
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:43pm Jul 31, 2013 6:43pm
Hello Malcolmites . . . Chart of Pound Futures . . . 12 Hour . . . I'm looking for longs . . .
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  • #24,594
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:39pm Jul 31, 2013 8:39pm
Quoting MarcusFire
Hello Malcolmites . . . Chart of Pound Futures . . . 12 Hour . . . I'm looking for longs . . . {image}
Mr Fire.. Its been a while.

Just thought I would offer a different perspective with the 1hr, which honestly I think the 1hr and 12hr work great together.

But it seems as if cable started a distribution phase on 7/22 through 7/29, six trading days so I would be very surprised to see the mark down only last two days. Today we did have big volume come in, me personally I would rather wait to see how price reacts to it before I take a position to either side.
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  • #24,595
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:49pm Jul 31, 2013 8:49pm
So here is EU 1hr.

Big volume at 3350, and the next bar is down so that is telling us there are sell orders in this volume.

So now I am speaking more along the lines of longer term trades, this bar is smacking us across the face and telling us to get out of bull mode. Meaning stop buying the strength and lock in some profit. Still too early to start shorting, use VSA as a early warning system to tell you that the trend may change soon.
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  • #24,596
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:56pm Jul 31, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} But it seems as if cable started a distribution phase on 7/22 through 7/29, six trading days so I would be very surprised to see the mark down only last two days.
Fair enough . . . But the longer term trend is up. (This year has seen some good up moves and a double bottom). The mark-down / Shakeout will not last as long (*IF* this is truly strength!) . . . or . . . it will last as long as it lasts. either way . . . I'm not looking for shorts at the moment, unless for a quick 20-30 pip scalp . . . if the charts says "Short". But my longer-term perspective is definitely a "buy" after today's action.

If it doesn't move tomorrow or shows more SOW . . . I will close. Otherwise, I will hold.
  • #24,597
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:07pm Jul 31, 2013 9:07pm
Hi SD . . . I'm on hold for the moment on EU. It's back at a crucial price range where the sellers absorbed the hell out of the buyers back in June. I want to see which way it goes through this Fib Zone*** before taking a position.
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  • #24,598
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:08pm Jul 31, 2013 9:08pm
*** Fib Zone . . . Copyright Jason aka Pres78 . . . 2011, 2012, 2013
  • #24,599
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:36pm Aug 1, 2013 8:36pm
SD - GU - Closed my long . . . New Perspective . . . Good Call! :-)
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  • #24,600
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:07am Aug 2, 2013 2:07am
Something I am currently watching for a longer term trade.

Strength in the background and stopping volume from two days ago with price starting to show some result from the effort. Waiting to buy the strength, especially any strength in LO or US sessions. Doubt I will get an entry today but maybe Monday or Tuesday.
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