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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,501
  • Jul 29, 2013 11:55pm Jul 29, 2013 11:55pm
30 July 2013
Click on date for 1hr charts.

EUR - We did retrace lower as mentioned and now have a D evening star pattern, albeit weak as RSI has not crossed its signal line lower and we are above the 8lwma. The 4hr negative divergence might have played out. 1hr is on lower high. If this is a pause in uptrend on D we would need a 1hr higher low to confirm, this is forming pre Frankfurt open. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed negative for an evening star pattern off a proven resistance level (July '12 low, 11/12 Apr high), RSI crossed lower and below 8lwma. Price failed to go higher for a week so everything appears in place for a trend change. 4hr 3 bar reversal off the highs yesterday with the negative close. 1hr has made a lower high and lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D closed negative but a small range day. 4hr RSI crossed up yesterday and we have positive divergence, this may have played out with a move up in Asian session. Approaching yesterdays high and the support/resistance area 130.50, this would be an area where a move back down may happen.

EURAUD - D closed positive on the back of a move up around London close. from there a 200 pip move up on AUS news. The next resistance level I have is 1.4900. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative for an evening star pattern. Big drop on the AUD news, bias down.
  • #6,502
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:49am Jul 30, 2013 7:49am
Hello Dave. What do you think of the support as well as round number 1.5300 in GU ? Will it hold ? I'm bit confused at this cause the bias is down and there is a support..What to do in these kinda situations ?
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,503
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:36am Jul 30, 2013 8:36am
Quoting money89
Hello Dave. What do you think of the support as well as round number 1.5300 in GU ? Will it hold ? I'm bit confused at this cause the bias is down and there is a support..What to do in these kinda situations ?
Nothing is ever guaranteed and the market will do what its gonna do. I think it will fail but I don't know.

A decision has to be made that sometimes will work and sometimes it won't. Whilst bias is down it can just as easily jump up from the RN as fall. Your options are exit partially or in full at the RN, or leave trade completely, perhaps tighten stop to reduce risk.

If you exit partially or in full at the RN you are then looking for a fall below the RN and a retrace higher to then sell rallies in what we hope is now a down trend i.e. LH's. If this is genuinely the start of down trend there will be many, many opportunities in the next few weeks.
  • #6,504
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:42am Jul 30, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Nothing is ever guaranteed and the market will do what its gonna do. I think it will fail but I don't know.
Why do I think it will fail?

After the LO push below 1.5300 failed this morning we have had 3 x 1hr candles with upper wicks, the last close a doji rejecting W M2 at 1.5319 + and the Asian session low. If buyers were active at 1.5300 there should have been a more meaningful move up and better positive close 1 hr candles.
  • #6,505
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:29am Jul 30, 2013 10:29am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Why do I think it will fail? After the LO push below 1.5300 failed this morning we have had 3 x 1hr candles with upper wicks, the last close a doji rejecting W M2 at 1.5319 + and the Asian session low. If buyers were active at 1.5300 there should have been a more meaningful move up and better positive close 1 hr candles.
I am officially putting this down as a good call. The 1hr upper wicks mentioned see the x. If the RN was to hold surely the candles would have closed stronger?

Got home found Mrs V in bed with her back/neck issues and we missed out on this one. Oh well tomorrow is another day.
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  • #6,506
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:26pm Jul 30, 2013 12:26pm
Thanks for the reply Dave. That was really really really helpful and I mean it all the way.

This is the trade I took after I've decided that it is going to be bear day. Took some of the position partially at 1.5265 which is 25th july low and rest i'm still holding.

Actually I thought I'd take up some online course, but with today's trade I've realised that I don't need any such courses. Your thread is much more than enough I should say.

Thanks a lot for all the effort's you have put in and also for your timely replies.
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My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,507
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:14pm Jul 30, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting money89
Thanks for the reply Dave. That was really really really helpful and I mean it all the way. This is the trade I took after I've decided that it is going to be bear day. Took some of the position partially at 1.5265 which is 25th july low and rest i'm still holding. Actually I thought I'd take up some online course, but with today's trade I've realised that I don't need any such courses. Your thread is much more than enough I should say. Thanks a lot for all the effort's you have put in and also for your timely replies. {image}
Thanks for those kind words.

Cheers, great trade.
  • #6,508
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:46pm Jul 30, 2013 11:46pm
31 July 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts.

EUR - D closed a doji range bound between 1.3300 and the W pivot 1.3235. 4hr and 1hr charts are a mess. Whilst things may become clearer as the day moves on there have to be better pairs than this to trade.

GU - D closed negative following the evening star pattern. 4hr chart made a low, 1hr on lower high lower low. I have the 1 June '12 low as a resistance level at 1.5266 just below the D pivot, W S1 at 1.5280 both places that we could move up to and then look to sell. If we get that high of course. Bias down.

EJ - D closed a shooting star making no progress lower. A base has formed at 129.85, the 1hr upper wicks are making marginally lower highs. Retaining down bias but this can go either way and would need much better candles to consider a trade.

EURAUD - D closed positive after the big news jump on 30th. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative at the lows. Bias down, the trick is to get an entry that you can live with given the inevitable bounces above 0.9000.
  • #6,509
  • Jul 31, 2013 5:37am Jul 31, 2013 5:37am
Sold GU after the 15 min 2b shooting star. Entry at 1.5217 (yes entry was a little late). Just moved below the RN will post charts if it sticks.

Will be looking for US session to bring EURAUD back into trend.
  • #6,510
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:23am Jul 31, 2013 6:23am
Quoting Vantage
Sold GU after the 15 min 2b shooting star. Entry at 1.5217 (yes entry was a little late). Just moved below the RN will post charts if it sticks. Will be looking for US session to bring EURAUD back into trend.
So far trade running to plan. We went below 1.5200 came back to test the RN/London open low. So we trust this is not a 15/85 trade and the move will now follow through lower. We'll see.
  • #6,511
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:58am Jul 31, 2013 7:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} So far trade running to plan. We went below 1.5200 came back to test the RN/London open low. So we trust this is not a 15/85 trade and the move will now follow through lower. We'll see.
Hi Dave,

Great trade, hope you stayed in for gap down.

I agree with money89, this site is gold. Thanks for your continued effort.

Kind Regards

Martin
  • #6,512
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:17am Jul 31, 2013 8:17am
Quoting mt2
{quote} Hi Dave, Great trade, hope you stayed in for gap down. I agree with money89, this site is gold. Thanks for your continued effort. Kind Regards Martin
Thank you also for those kind words.

Yes we are still in, trade running to plan so far so good. Hopefully we can target the next major support and resistance level which is the May lows in the area 1.5000/5030. Waiting that out will probably make me bust a gut. Am trying to do some work and ignore the 15 min chart. I suspect exit will happen before that level though at an appropriate W pivot.
  • #6,513
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:55am Jul 31, 2013 8:55am
Quoting money89
Thanks for the reply Dave. That was really really really helpful and I mean it all the way. This is the trade I took after I've decided that it is going to be bear day. Took some of the position partially at 1.5265 which is 25th july low and rest i'm still holding. Actually I thought I'd take up some online course, but with today's trade I've realised that I don't need any such courses. Your thread is much more than enough I should say. Thanks a lot for all the effort's you have put in and also for your timely replies. {image}
Still holding the rest of your sell?

As I speak we are heading to the days low, currently 1.5133 so about 10 pips to go. In a couple of hours we are heading into the London close reversal period. So anything lower from here/small (emphasis on small) bounce up will be .
  • #6,514
  • Jul 31, 2013 4:39pm Jul 31, 2013 4:39pm
Hello Dave. I've closed the trade at mid figure 1.5150..I assume that you meant ADR(Average Dialy Range) by saying current day's low.
I learnt somewhere about london reversal, But din't give much importance to it. Now I see that you said it, I'l get back at it.

Cheers..
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,515
  • Jul 31, 2013 4:44pm Jul 31, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Vantage
Sold GU after the 15 min 2b shooting star. Entry at 1.5217 (yes entry was a little late). Just moved below the RN will post charts if it sticks. Will be looking for US session to bring EURAUD back into trend.
What would have been your early entry ? Cause I couldn't find any reliable entry before the shooting star..
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,516
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:37pm Jul 31, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting money89
{quote} What would have been your early entry ? Cause I couldn't find any reliable entry before the shooting star..
Just a few pips below the shooting star as opposed to right below it.

I am lucky to be in the trade still. Mrs V said its a different trade to our norm (apart from the odd EURAUD trade we are nowhere near the mentality to leave a trade for days, but trying) and to leave stop. If it wasn't for that we'd have been out at BE. Then again a normal trade would have seen exit at 2nd W pivot target W MO 1.5142.
  • #6,517
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:39pm Jul 31, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting money89
Hello Dave. I've closed the trade at mid figure 1.5150..I assume that you meant ADR(Average Dialy Range) by saying current day's low. I learnt somewhere about london reversal, But din't give much importance to it. Now I see that you said it, I'l get back at it. Cheers..
This was a normal London close reversal that picked up some or other US news and really spiked.
  • #6,518
  • Jul 31, 2013 11:39pm Jul 31, 2013 11:39pm
I August 2013
UK and EUR interest rates today then NFP tomorrow. Never sure what that will bring with entries. Just hoping news takes my GU sell lower.

EUR - D closed a large body doji after a London Close move up that continued higher on the FOMC statement. The move up is so laboured, immediately rejected above 1.3300, that I have no faith in a move up. Bias if anything down.

GU - D closed a hammer due to the FOMC news, RSI has not crossed higher nor has price crossed the 8lwma, so its a weak move up. 4hr has made a lower high. Yesterdays low must fail for flow to continue down. Bias down, potential to bounce up from support.

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr looks like closing as a higher low. Bias up.

EURAUD - D closed positive touching the 1.4900 target mentioned a few days ago. We'll need to see how we react. There is a head and shoulders pattern potentially, the right shoulder on 1hr at yesterdays high. Then there is 1.4900 as a challenge. Bias up until any rejection of these levels confirms.

AUD - D closed negative. 4hr lower high lower low in tact. Bias down.
  • #6,519
  • Jul 31, 2013 11:41pm Jul 31, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} This was a normal London close reversal that picked up some or other US news and really spiked.

That US news was FOMC that I forgot about.
  • #6,520
  • Jul 31, 2013 11:45pm Jul 31, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting Vantage
29 July 2013 EURAUD - D closed negative but the move below Thursdays low was quickly rejected. D RSI flat and we are above the 8lwma. 4hr RSI flat, we can either be on a higher low or lower high depending on how we close. Whilst the uptrend has struggled at 1.4400 The Thur/Fri move lower has arguably been the weakest attempt lower. A 4hr negative close would be a sell signal but I suspect bias up.
Missed out badly, first 200 pips or so did come on Aussie interest rate news so not a lot could be done there. Also missed out on the US session 1hr hl yesterday. There was also a nice 2b 3 bar reversal yesterday also, 15 min.
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