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Trading using two pivots

  • #21
  • Edited 12:56am Jul 29, 2013 12:26am | Edited 12:56am
Quoting orionfx
Subscribe, keep going, i like your method.
I will try to keep them simple and concise as much as possible. If you have any preferences regarding this kind of analysis do not hesitate to demand, not only on the Forex "market", it could be shares, indexes, commodities, treasuries of any kind or on any other instrument.

Thank you for your reliance.

Even more, I invite anyone who has a difficulty regarding analysing any trading instrument of any kind to request it and I would be happy to analyze it on any time frame, as it follows: short-term (4h), medium term (daily), long term (weekly) or multiannual (monthly).
  • #22
  • Edited 10:03am Jul 29, 2013 9:50am | Edited 10:03am
Indexes: Nasdaq 100, medium term outlook

One month ago, the pair failed to break decisevely the 2843.40 pivot and rejected strongly since then making new highs, toward its maximum of 3086.00 Given pair's current technical market conditions, the coordinates of the future price development are, as it follows:

1. Heading up towards it's maximum of 3086.00 if the price maintains itself placed in the up bias (remaining situated over the pivot of 2843.40), as the green arrow suggests.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. Heading down towards the 2759.38 (which represents 50.0 Fibonacci retrace of the up movement 2432.75-3086.00, as long as the 2843.40 pivot is invalidated. Caution would be advised for this scenario because, as I've been explained in the topic earlier, on the neutral bias the presumtive movements are corrective and choppy in nature and only a fall bellow the 2817.00 would trigger stronger sells and a higher degree of certainty, as the mangenta arrow suggests.

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  • #23
  • Jul 29, 2013 1:50pm Jul 29, 2013 1:50pm
Hi, Diavolul. your idea provide a solid platform to trade on.

i don't understand 2 things:
1. you use it on H4 tf, why do you need to supervise it 24x7? it seems to suit the normal employees who checks the chart once everyday.

2. why the EA is an issue here? the EA for this is so simple to code. the EA trades based on two price levels. the TP and SL may be clearly defined by: 2 pivots, current price, and trend bias. isn't it right? this EA doesn't even consider any indicator.

Quoting diavolul
The main issue with this approach is not the profitability but the fact that you cannot trade 24/7. Only an expert adviser could solve this issue. I have trade it with some mild results. I was frustrated because sometimes I have missed some great trade opportunities because I wasn't home or I was sleeping on those late hours.
  • #24
  • Jul 29, 2013 3:44pm Jul 29, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, Diavolul. your idea provide a solid platform to trade on. i don't understand 2 things: 1. you use it on H4 tf, why do you need to supervise it 24x7? it seems to suit the normal employees who checks the chart once everyday. 2. why the EA is an issue here? the EA for this is so simple to code. the EA trades based on two price levels. the TP and SL may be clearly defined by: 2 pivots, current price, and trend bias. isn't it right? this EA doesn't even consider any indicator. {quote}
You are mostly wright but...despite the fact that the EA can be coded very easily, the EA has to take transactions by the positioning of the pivots drawn manually by me. Not to mention that some situations aren't common and need special attention, regarding the way are traded. There are some situations where the price is corrective but the simple postioning of the pivots doesn't not garantuee the maximum exploatation of that situation because of its particularity or the avoidance of them if it's needed.

Regarding the 24/7 time interval, there are some full potential situations where a trade from 4h time frame chart are keeped for weeks and months and you don't want to miss such great opportunities. I hope I am explained it wright. If are there any issues please adress them. Thank you for your questions.
  • #25
  • Jul 30, 2013 5:02am Jul 30, 2013 5:02am
Quoting diavolul
Forex: AUD/USD, short term outlook Looks like the pair isn't not heading down, at least not yet. The pair attemped two times to break the 0.9324 pivot level and failed so far. Given the current currency pair technical conditions the main scenarios for the development of the future price are, as it follows: 1. Heading up, only if the 0.9324 level is broken, targeting the 0.94777 level, which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace of the down movement 1.0254-0.89979. For safety, wait for the break of the 0.93443 peak, a pending stop above would be advised,...
Looks like the pair is heading down once more after conforming it by breaking the 0.91283 level, targeting the temporary low of 0.89979. After closing partial profit and moving the S/L on breakeven, when the price hits 0.91283 level, the next target level will be 0.84497 which represents the 141.4 Fibonacci retracement of the down movement 1.03226-0.89979 as the continuation of the purple arrow suggests.

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  • #26
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:04am Jul 30, 2013 8:04am
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook

The pair is moving in a tight range, from 1.4220-1.4210 for about an hour. The bias is down, with the price under the 1.4221 pivot. Given the current technical pair's conditions, the coordinates of the future price development are, as it follows:

1. Heading down, if the pair breaks the 1.4210 level, targeting the today low of 1.42079, and even further towards 1.41937 which represents the 17th july low the blue arrow suggests. A pending sell stop on 1.42103 would be advised.

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1. Heading up, if the pair breaks 1.4221 pivot level, caution it is advised because in this scenario we are entering the neutral bias and only a test of the 1.42234 would increase the odds of materialising the target of 1.42436, which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace of the downward moveent 1.42278-1.42079 as the green arrow suggests.

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  • #27
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:28am Jul 30, 2013 8:28am
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

1. The heading up scenario if the pair breaks the 1.4221 pivot

Here are the adjusted target because the price has fallen meanwhile, the target has widden, now it is located on 1.42302.

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2. The heading down scenario coordinates remain the same

I will add additional targets as the price hits the 17th July 2013 low of 1.41936.
  • #28
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:24am Jul 30, 2013 9:24am
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

The down scenario produced about 15 pips, by hitting the 17th July 2013 low located on 1.41936 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now, the coordinates for the future trades are, as it follows:

1. Heading down, if the price break today's low of 1.41884, towards the 1.41536 which is the 141.4 Fibonacci retrace level measured on the downward movement 1.42724-1.41884, as the magenta arrow suggests for a potential profit of 35 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. Heading up, if the price break the new formed pivot from 1.4209 level, targeting the 1.42206 (38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured on the down movement 1.42724-1.41884) as the brown arrow suggests, with a pottential profit of 11 pips.

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  • #29
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:05am Jul 30, 2013 11:05am
wow, i thought this is only for daily/4H or higher TF. so it can be used on M1 too!

i understand that a pivot line is a price level that has switched between support and resistance (as you defined). but there could be many pivots. what other criteria do you use to determine the TWO pivots, since you only pick TWO of them.

thanks.

Quoting diavolul
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)
  • #30
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:03pm Jul 30, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting charvo
wow, i thought this is only for daily/4H or higher TF. so it can be used on M1 too! i understand that a pivot line is a price level that has switched between support and resistance (as you defined). but there could be many pivots. what other criteria do you use to determine the TWO pivots, since you only pick TWO of them. thanks. {quote}
I choose only two most importants pivot levels, the two levels where the price has reacted significantly as far as the this thing can be done. Because there are some situations where, at least one of them, is tricky to establish. In most cases, the pivot that separates the down bias zone and neutral bias zone is situated bellow the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace in a down trend and bellow 61.8 Fibonacci retrace in an up trend and the pivot that separates the up bias zone and neutral bias zone is situated above 61.8 Fibonacci retrace in a down trend and above 38.2 Fibonacci in an up trend.
  • #31
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:20pm Jul 30, 2013 12:20pm
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

1. Up scenario

The pair has confirmed the up scenario by closing above the 1.4209 pivot but failed to touch the target by a less than 2 pips. Depending the spread in that moment on your broker the target would have been hit or not.

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2. Down scenario

After barely touched the up scenario target reversed and confirmed the down scenario by passing the former day's low of 1.41884, now the price is near 1.4168 level (about 20 pips) and the 1.41536 level, which is the 141.4 Fibonacci retrace level measured on the downward movement 1.42724-1.41884, remains as a valid potential target, so far.

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  • #32
  • Jul 30, 2013 2:51pm Jul 30, 2013 2:51pm
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

1. Heading down scenario could continue even further

At this moment, we need to move the S/L in the positive area, because the pivots has modified once again. So, for those who have entered on short position, according to the indications given in the post no.29, from the perspective of the down scenario, they should move the S/L from 1.4209 to 1.4174 (locking on profit about 14 pips), keeping the initial 1.41536 as a T/P level. If the price breaks below today's low (1.41583) we'll adjust the T/P to 1.41334 (which represents 141.4 Fibonacci retrace measured on the downward movement 1.42185-1.41583). In this way we'll catch as much as we can get, moving the S/L gradually, as the purple arrow suggests.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. Heading up scenario

If the price breaks the 1.4172 pivot level the S/L will close our transaction and we could enter long targeting 1.41813 (38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured on the down movement 1.42185-1.41583) as the coral colored arrow suggests. Caution would be advised and risk would be decreased significantly (10 times lesser) and a buy-stop on 1.41742 would be more propriate. Not to mention the risk-reward for this would be about 0.60.

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  • #33
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:46pm Jul 30, 2013 9:46pm
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

Down scenario could continue even further

As I've said earlier, as long as the 1.4172 pivot it is invalidated the pair remains vulnerable for future price decreases, which already happened. The price tested the pivot but the weakness had the wright dozage and the pair felt to a minimum of 1.41507 (about 21 pips from the pivot). Now, with the previous low invalidated (1.41583), we'll enlarge the S/L even more, to 1.41334, which is the 141.4 Fibonacci retrace level measured on the down movement of 1.42185-1.41583.

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Up scenario coordinates remain the sames as the ones mention in previous post.
  • #34
  • Jul 31, 2013 3:40pm Jul 31, 2013 3:40pm
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (update)

Downside movement has been continued and made a total of 54 pips, hitting the 1.41334 (141.4 Fibonacci retrace level measured on the down movement of 1.42185-1.41583).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The pivot lines drawn in the last post are not valid any more and we'll have to draw new ones. The new formed pivots are: 1.4083 and 1.4107. The price is situated on the limit which separates the neutral and down bias zones. Having this configuration on the chart, the coordinates of the future price development are, as it follows:

1. Going lower if the price touches the 1.4058 level as the purple arrow suggests, it's not a great opportunity but from a scalper perspective even 6 or 7 pips are valuble.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. Instead of fructifying the neutral zone potential, we'll have patience for the price to go over the 1.4108 pivot, the ones which separates the netrual bias zone from up bias zone. The reason we have to do this is, because in our absence the price has already developed the neutral correction by breaking the 1.4083 level and went straight to 1.40924 level (which is 50.0 Fibonacci retrace from the entire down movement 1.41339-1.4051).
In this case will have a great profit potential of about 25 pips which is the distance from the 1.4108 pivot to the temporary peak of 1.41339, as the blue arrow suggests.

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  • #35
  • Jul 31, 2013 4:34pm Jul 31, 2013 4:34pm
Indexes: Nasdaq 100, medium term outlook (update)

The index has been rising pretty strong to a maximum of 3104.00, validating the upside potential that I've described in the post no. 23; those who had opened that transaction need to close a partial profit from this trade and to move the S/L to breakeven. They would have now closed a partial profit of about 130 points. The next target is on 3355.39 (about 2650 points from the current level), which represents the 141.4 Fibonacci retrace from the upside movement of 2432.75-3085.25, as the up arrow colored in aqua suggests.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who have not opened a long position from a safer level or they haven't locked some profit, I wouldn't not recommend it to enter now or to stay unprotected in this time of year. I will come with future updates and I'll promiss I will to you that opportunity to go long only if it shows once more. Otherwise it's in vain.


The downside potential

When the time is wright and the price will invalidate the 2843.40 level and touch 2817.00 level, we'll enter short in a cautious manner. We know how painfull, messy and time consuming are the shallow corrections and we'll rather not feel the frustration on our shoulders. That's why we'll wait for a deeper correction or a reversal in trend, as the green arrow suggests.

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  • #36
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:20am Aug 1, 2013 4:20am
Forex: GBP/CHF, scalper's term outlook (transactions briefing)

Firstly, the pair confirmed a short entry by passing the 1.4058 level with its modest profit potential of nearly 6 pips, going to a low of 1.40425.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The pair grew tremendously after the fall, breaking both 1.4083 and 1.4108 pivot levels, passing the established target set by us in the post no. 35 of 1.41318 and making almost 25 pips profit.

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  • #37
  • Dec 9, 2013 4:47am Dec 9, 2013 4:47am
Forex: USD/CHF, medium term outlook (daily time frame)

Downside potential

The pair continued to decrease in price as the downward movement from 0.9249 peak continued to stay in the downside bias, under the 0.9208 pivot level. Given these market conditions, we expect the price to fall and even lower, surpassing the temporary low of 0.88892. Even so, given the distance between the current price and the nearliest pivot level, we can expect an increase in price, as long as the 0.9208 pivot it is not invalidated.

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Upside potential

Teoretically, the pair could rise near the 0.9208 level, where the pivot that separates the downside bias from neutral bias but the price would be still vulnerable to drecrease. That's why wait for closing above the 0.9208 pivot for entering long, with decreased amount of risk for targeting 0.92516 (which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement measured from 0.98378-0.88892) and even 0.93635 (which is the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement measured from 0.98378-0.88892) if the the price hit the first target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:47pm Dec 9, 2013 12:47pm
Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

As long as the price maintains itself over the 1.6257 level, which represents the pivot level beatween up bias zone and neutral bias zone, the price is expected to rise, targeting the temporary high of 1.64414 and even further.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Downside potential

If the price falls enough and break the 1.6257 level, caution should be advised when taking short positions towards 1.61869 (which represent the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured from 1.5753-1.64414).

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  • #39
  • Edited 5:50am Dec 13, 2013 4:59am | Edited 5:50am
Forex: USD/CHF, medium term outlook (daily time frame)

Downside potential

The price hit the temporary low of 0.88892 as I've mentioned in the post #38.That being said, we have to focus on the next target, which would be 0.86312 (the 127.2 Fibonacci retracement measured on the entire downside movement of 0.98378-0.88892). Even so, the pair could rise in value towards 0.9208 pivot without closing above it and maintaining the 0.86312 target valid.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfdaily(1).png Size: 70 KB


Upside potential

Upside potential is limited, so far, because we are currently in the down bias so any rise is expected to stop before 0.9208 level. Anyway, we don't recommand to enter long positions when the price is the down bias zone (orange area) because there are greater risks for falling in price once again.
Wait for the 0.9208 pivot to be broken, with decreased amount of risk for targeting 0.9249 and even further to 0.93383 (the 50.0 Fibonacci retrace measured on the downside movement 0.98378-0.88388) if the 0.9249 peak is surpassed even with a pip.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:54am Dec 13, 2013 5:54am
great simple method , will try it next week if possible

btw , just to make simple for you why dont you just let ppl use their own judgment on those S&R .... dont knw btw its visually easy right? just comment


also may i ask hw do u get apple and s&p index on mt4 , or is this CFDs


man keep going n all da best
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