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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,561
  • Jul 10, 2013 8:36pm Jul 10, 2013 8:36pm
After today's action, we need a reminder from the master. Malcolm say Relax:

Quoting malcolmb14
. . . To be honest I do not like it when the market becomes insane like this. i prefer order .. 120 pip a day ranges , at least I know how the market is supposed to work then , right now it could do anything at anytime , including going up 300 pip in one 60 min candle . . .{quote}
  • #24,562
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:27am Jul 11, 2013 8:27am
Quoting MarcusFire
After today's action, we need a reminder from the master. Malcolm say Relax: {quote}
Yes pretty crazy Asia sesssion last evening... EU alone went 244 pips up in less than 2 hours into the new day and now here we are 200 pips down from that high. 444 total pips range from L-H and H-NY session L. Quite amazing stuff.

I agree with what Malc said though I too prefer the normal daily ranges. Those we can trade and use the ranges to predict daily highs and lows. Although I would take a day like today over those teeny tiny 50 pip ranges that EU sometimes finds itself in !
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,563
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:21am Jul 15, 2013 9:21am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes pretty crazy Asia sesssion last evening... EU alone went 244 pips up in less than 2 hours into the new day and now here we are 200 pips down from that high. 444 total pips range from L-H and H-NY session L. Quite amazing stuff. I agree with what Malc said though I too prefer the normal daily ranges. Those we can trade and use the ranges to predict daily highs and lows. Although I would take a day like today over those teeny tiny 50 pip ranges that EU sometimes finds itself in !
I got only one word for you - cable
  • #24,564
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:01am Jul 16, 2013 1:01am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I got only one word for you - cable
Dangit Aldo..

I find this interesting, 49% of FF traders are short on EU, but 96% of FF lots are short.

12h chart shows we had some supply on July 10, but the last two days it seems as if the market has been testing looking for sellers, doesnt seem too weak to me. But as HG keeps hammering at me to follow the trend it would be wise to start looking for a position after either the high of July 10 is taken out for long or wait for these test to fail for a short.
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  • #24,565
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:03am Jul 16, 2013 7:03am
The only fancy thing here is the NS..

Up trend, SOS and an entry bar.
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  • #24,566
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:50am Jul 16, 2013 8:50am
Got a little bored, so I thought I would kick it old school with this chart.

15m, EU has come up a bit and we see a HV SO. Market is already trending up, so I am not sure why we need a high volume shake out.. Now look at the next bar, the reaction to the SO, looks weak. Probably not the best place for me to look for a long, but the trend is up, so not the time for shorts either.
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  • #24,567
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:02am Jul 17, 2013 9:02am
I had a nice little post written up for you a little bit after LO, but about an hour and half into London, this nasty UT came into play which trumped my post, so I left it alone.

EU threw a twist at me today and here it is, we see strength (blue) bounce of off the high of yesterdays SO which was the highest volume for yesterday. Which made me very bullish, a few bars later looks as if some nasty selling came in (red). Then a test came in (green) which I passed up because of our UT.

Take note of the orange bar, in real time this looked as a descent short with the red bar in our background, but the trend was slightly up so that was scratched. And now you can see we did get the rise at US open.

Don't forget volume is rubbish and stick with the tried and true MA Crossovers.
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  • #24,568
  • Edited 11:49pm Jul 22, 2013 5:27pm | Edited 11:49pm
Hi, can anybody send me a SwingVolume Indicator, please?

I haven't found the one that uses high/low price to recognize a swing and count the volume (instead of a WeisWave Indicator that uses close price)
  • #24,569
  • Jul 23, 2013 7:38am Jul 23, 2013 7:38am
Quoting pioootr
Hi, can anybody send me a SwingVolume Indicator, please? I haven't found the one that uses high/low price to recognize a swing and count the volume (instead of a WeisWave Indicator that uses close price)
Hi, what platform?
I found only this indicator for MT4:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6632372
  • #24,570
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:44am Jul 24, 2013 11:44am
MT4

I've tried this indicator but it's single color. Does any one know mt4 code for SwingVolume indicator (bicolor)

THX
  • #24,571
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:13pm Jul 25, 2013 12:13pm
Hey Guys

Sh1t havnt been around a while.

Does vsa and wyckoff still work??? ...
  • #24,572
  • Jul 29, 2013 5:31am Jul 29, 2013 5:31am
OK wel hevnt done this for a while, would be nice if people could refresh my memory. And maybe spot things I didnt.

But to me it looks in this chart that it still has failed to make a lower low. So strenght is still apparent.

But I do think this upmove is coming to an end
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  • #24,573
  • Jul 29, 2013 7:21am Jul 29, 2013 7:21am
Good example here wait for a reaction down, hopefully on somm goodish volume and take the first pullback if its on nd
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  • #24,574
  • Jul 29, 2013 10:41am Jul 29, 2013 10:41am
Hello Friends and VSA Gurus
I trade for past 8 years and this Jan 2013 i found this method (VSA/Wyckoff) and I was able to buy low and sell high.
And March was a dream I made 16 successive winning trade in live using this method and so pleased. (3000 to 14000 pounds) in no time. My dreams of hard work became a success. (WHat a feeling)

But from April I was caught!! (trend moves)

Forex does not offer clear Wyckoff sometimes reversals could happen without proper tests (Shakeouts and Uptrusts).
2 Scenarios I am unable to work out ( If anyone can throw some experience on this would be greatly appreciated.

1. Continuing trends - Wyckoff reversals were just retracementss(downtrend here no reversals after set ups) - Unable to differentiate between reversals and
retracements.
2. Some time tops / or bottoms without set up - Just immediate change of direction

Looking Hindsight it should be easy to trade, but when I am considering a Short reversal to long side(Wyckoff) how does SM know if they will reaccumulate again or distribute at the top? what clues does VSA provide for smelling this rat?

This is EURUSD 1 Hour chart
http://clip2net.com/clip/m90706/thum...clip-122kb.png
  • #24,575
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:26am Jul 30, 2013 12:26am
Quoting pete148
OK wel hevnt done this for a while, would be nice if people could refresh my memory. And maybe spot things I didnt. But to me it looks in this chart that it still has failed to make a lower low. So strenght is still apparent. But I do think this upmove is coming to an end {image}
You're spot on with your levels, lets take a look at the volume part. First chart is a zoomed out 1h, notice at this top we are currently at we don't see any climatic volume. 7-17 we see climatic volume.. Its still too early to tell, thinking that if we only see a lack of volume then EU may just be exhausted and needs a retrace, but if we see heavy volume especially around .33 then it maybe time to start looking to exit our longs.

This is one of those times it will pay to be patient.
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  • #24,576
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:58am Jul 30, 2013 12:58am
Quoting adler
Hello Friends and VSA Gurus I trade for past 8 years and this Jan 2013 i found this method (VSA/Wyckoff) and I was able to buy low and sell high. And March was a dream I made 16 successive winning trade in live using this method and so pleased. (3000 to 14000 pounds) in no time. My dreams of hard work became a success. (WHat a feeling) But from April I was caught!! (trend moves) Forex does not offer clear Wyckoff sometimes reversals could happen without proper tests (Shakeouts and Uptrusts). 2 Scenarios I am unable to work out ( If anyone can throw...
I find your post interesting.. You did well in March but had trouble in April, both were choppy months. Just from my personal experience VSA does amazing job in ranging/choppy markets and doesn't do as well in trending markets.

Something you may want to look into (I am assuming you trade a 15m/5m chart) is watching your higher TFs 1h/4h/day to determine whether the market is ranging or trending.

Ranging markets stick with the basic 3 bar setup (BC/SC.. SO.. Test) for entry and when you are in a bullish trending market stick with only buying the strength.
  • #24,577
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:34am Jul 30, 2013 1:34am
Quoting adler
1. Continuing trends - Wyckoff reversals were just retracementss(downtrend here no reversals after set ups) - Unable to differentiate between reversals and retracements. 2. Some time tops / or bottoms without set up - Just immediate change of direction Looking Hindsight it should be easy to trade, but when I am considering a Short reversal to long side(Wyckoff) how does SM know if they will reaccumulate again or distribute at the top? what clues does VSA provide for smelling this rat? This is EURUSD 1 Hour chart {image}
So here is for the rest of your post.. I don't know Wyckoff so here is just the VSA side of it.

Here is your chart zoomed out.. Starting out think of VSA as a early warning system that the trend is about to change. So starting on 7/4 we see massive volume come in, this is a warning that the trend COULD (let me come back to this could at the end of the post) so on 7/4 this chart should smack you across the face and say pay attention to whats going on and get out of bear mode.

7/5 comes along and we see more massive volume, once again smacking you and telling you to pay attention, but so far the trend is down. Now if you are using 1h as your longer term TF, the trend changes to up on 7/8 which could have been an easy long trade for a 15/5m chart if you took quick profits. If you held and tried to get a longer run then you would have probably been stopped out. Not that you were wrong, its just the joys of trading that you have to accept.

Then we finally see the mark up on 7/10, lets go back to the climatic bar on 7/4, if this is to be bullish volume then we know price will have to rise above the high of this bar, there are buy orders in this bar the market will rise above them to ensure those orders are profitable. From a VSA stand point, this high would be a great place to see strength for a longer term position.

Lets go back to the could change trend direction, I got this from the book reminiscences of a stock operator.. Towards the end Jessie talks a bit about how he actually manipulated stocks. He talks about when he shorted a market, he shorted it enough to cause an imbalance in supply, once that was done the stock would end its trend and start moving down. Once it was moving down this is were he did the BULK of his selling.

SM does not know when they will have to re accumulate, they know when things are not acting as they should then they need to create an imbalance of supply/demand. In a downtrend a wide spread down bar with high volume could also be SM shorting and driving prices down. To tell the difference between a Selling Climax and these bearish down bars depends on how climatic the volume is, and how price reacts to these bars.
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  • #24,578
  • Jul 30, 2013 3:51am Jul 30, 2013 3:51am
A little test on 15m or even 5m will look good to long for about 20 pips.

It looks like we had the oversold area where it says OS yesterday, the a retest this morning.
Now breaking above previous support.
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  • #24,579
  • Edited 4:35am Jul 30, 2013 4:12am | Edited 4:35am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} So here is for the rest of your post.. I don't know Wyckoff so here is just the VSA side of it. Here is your chart zoomed out.. Starting out think of VSA as a early warning system that the trend is about to change. So starting on 7/4 we see massive volume come in, this is a warning that the trend COULD (let me come back to this could at the end of the post) so on 7/4 this chart should smack you across the face and say pay attention to whats going on and get out of bear mode. 7/5 comes along and we see more massive volume, once again smacking...
Many Thanks for taking time for replying. I really appreciate that, but sorry not very affirmative (might/could/would). If SM wants to invest Million pounds
will they invest with (might/could/would) in mind -- I strongly believe they are 80% right most of the time. They beat the crowd most of the time except few unknown circumstances...


Quote
Ranging markets stick with the basic 3 bar setup (BC/SC.. SO.. Test) for entry and when you are in a bullish trending market stick with only buying the strength.

If i know whether it will range NOW or trend NOW (NOW -- Magic word) , then I and you would be rich by now, simply looking at charts on hind sight it is easy to say it is ranging or trending , What is important is whether I am able to make money on that day by reading charts as SM does!!! And I am looking for any tool which would get into me to the market 80% of time.

Quote
7/4 massive bar and get out of bear mode
So you get out just by seeing a massive bar, what if it is bearish continuation!!????

Quote
7/5 massive bar u watch when price goes down falling -
You watch>???? your in the wrong end of the market already wasting a good trend move down,

Quote
the trend changes to up on 7/8 which could have been an easy long trade for a 15/5m chart if you took quick profit
I trade 1 Hr and 1 Hr only - You made 40 pips after loosing 200 pip down move..!!!
What is the confirmation to go long? Just huge candles? (hind sight view i would say nothing to confirm in the charts) , Will you invest huge money on this massive bar with confidence on 1 hr chart!.

Quote
climatic bar 7/9 not 7/10
Then we finally see the mark up on 7/10, lets go back to the climatic bar on 7/4, if this is to be bullish volume then we
know price will have to rise above the high of this bar, there are buy orders in this bar the market will rise above
them to ensure those orders are profitable. From a VSA stand point, this high would be a great place to see strength
for a longer term position.

"TOO late what if it fakes out like before", This is not buy low so none of the explanations made any money except u were running like me on the wrong end of market hoping hoping it would reverse and keep betting. Sorry thanks for your time, but VSA did not help me to get into the right end of the market

Quote
SM does not know when they will have to re accumulate,
If SM does not know why will they invest millions of pound(gamble)???

Regards
Mohamed
  • #24,580
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:41am Jul 30, 2013 4:41am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} In a downtrend a wide spread down bar with high volume could also be SM shorting and driving prices down. To tell the difference between a Selling Climax and these bearish down bars depends on how climatic the volume is, and how price reacts to these bars. {image}
Hi SimpleDev
What do You mean 'how climatic volume is'?
Amount of volume?
Volume on 7/4 and 7/5 is greater than on 7/9.

'and how price reacts to these bars'?
7/4 and 7/5 - massive volume down wide spread bars with bullish reactions
7/9 - massive volume down wide spread bar with bearish reaction

EDIT: Interesting - on 6E Futures chart volume is greatest on 7/9
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