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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #2,561
  • Jul 27, 2013 10:45am Jul 27, 2013 10:45am
COT UJ

here the picture is not that clear: the COT Index for the Comms is not in buying area, yet. maybe they are looking for somewhat lower prices to load the boat.

With 75% of retail trader (Saxo bank) having long options, I think we will see declining prices with Comms loading their boat discretely
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  • #2,562
  • Jul 27, 2013 10:58am Jul 27, 2013 10:58am
COT data UC

seems to be a mixed bag right now. <looks like a situation, where one does not need to rush in to trade anything long term

My feeling is, that the Comms want to be long, but they are right now in the process of accumulation. The COT index for the Comms is neutral, as is their OI in longs.

Short term I think prices will decline somewhat. EW shows eventually kind of ending diagonal in an ABC move (1h TF). 9250 is the point of invalidation of this ending diagonal.

So for longs I would advise to set a SL just below 9250
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  • #2,563
  • Jul 27, 2013 11:08am Jul 27, 2013 11:08am
Great and hard jobs,Markus!Do u have more free time at the weekend?
I think we tend to buy USD/XXX and sell XXX/US,Gold in next week!
  • #2,564
  • Jul 27, 2013 11:21am Jul 27, 2013 11:21am
Quoting kaka_ht
Great and hard jobs,Markus!Do u have more free time at the weekend? I think we tend to buy USD/XXX and sell XXX/US,Gold in next week!

Hi Kaka,

this morning I went Motorbiking. I spent 5h with driving. Man, it was so hot. We had around 35-38°C, and my bike had around 100°C. It was not as funny as I thought

But anyway: the job was required to be done


I am looking forward to my vacation, which starts mid August. Since I go mountaineering, I do not know if I will be around a lot during this time.

What are you doing this summer? Vacation? But you do not need vacation, since you are living where other people spent their vacations
  • #2,565
  • Edited 12:43pm Jul 27, 2013 12:08pm | Edited 12:43pm
Haha,wellcome to Vietnam,my friend!I met a lot of German in my country and I talk them so much!Weather here is very hot too!
  • #2,566
  • Jul 27, 2013 12:53pm Jul 27, 2013 12:53pm
Thanks Markun for your voucher!I'm very apperecite for it!
I see a good EW AUD/JYP!I think we're in wave 5 and will see break the previous low soon,looking for a retest trendline to short!It's very low risk!
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  • #2,567
  • Jul 27, 2013 2:04pm Jul 27, 2013 2:04pm
Hello everybody.

I hope you are not spending too much time here, but I suppose just like me you are mentally and technically preparing yourselves for next week, which I am sure will be full of nail biting events as the week will most likely be dominated by the fundies.

Every week, I read the marctomarket update which really give an excellent summation of the current conditions and attempts to paint the likely picture for the week ahead.

So, here it is... a "must read" for anyone who trades in the H4 and greater time frames. Enjoy!

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: A Week of Fundamentals
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/07/...hnical_27.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,568
  • Jul 27, 2013 4:51pm Jul 27, 2013 4:51pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...mp-mathematics

"Economics Cannot Trump Mathematics"
  • #2,569
  • Jul 27, 2013 4:55pm Jul 27, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hello everybody. I hope you are not spending too much time here, but I suppose just like me you are mentally and technically preparing yourselves for next week, which I am sure will be full of nail biting events as the week will most likely be dominated by the fundies. Every week, I read the marctomarket update which really give an excellent summation of the current conditions and attempts to paint the likely picture for the week ahead. So, here it is... a "must read" for anyone who trades in the H4 and greater time frames. Enjoy! Currency Positioning...

Hi PT,

thank you for sharing the link. :-)
  • #2,570
  • Jul 27, 2013 4:58pm Jul 27, 2013 4:58pm
Nice reading:

The Royal Road To Riches

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...al-road-riches
  • #2,571
  • Jul 27, 2013 5:11pm Jul 27, 2013 5:11pm
this is the 4H : click

and directly go to your link . thank

Quoting PipTrapper
Hello everybody. I hope you are not spending too much time here, but I suppose just like me you are mentally and technically preparing yourselves for next week, which I am sure will be full of nail biting events as the week will most likely be dominated by the fundies. Every week, I read the marctomarket update which really give an excellent summation of the current conditions and attempts to paint the likely picture for the week ahead. So, here it is... a "must read" for anyone who trades in the H4 and greater time frames. Enjoy! Currency Positioning...
not euphoria follower
  • #2,572
  • Jul 27, 2013 5:23pm Jul 27, 2013 5:23pm
hi.. is anyone short on gold? what do you do think? do you believe it will keep falling?
  • #2,573
  • Jul 28, 2013 12:48am Jul 28, 2013 12:48am
Quoting nikitis
hi.. is anyone short on gold? what do you do think? do you believe it will keep falling?
Let's see what we have now!We're are in the corrective wave 4 now,but there are 2 variants:Flat a-b-c or double a-b-c-x-a-b-c!If PA break up the pivot resistance level 1240,PA will continue going higher and then fall again!But if not it's clear that we're already in wave down 5 of larger degree!I tend to variant 1,because I think USD is gaining its strength in FA view!Time will answer us!
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  • #2,574
  • Jul 28, 2013 12:50am Jul 28, 2013 12:50am
Quoting kaka_ht
{quote} Let's see what we have now!We're are in the corrective wave 4 now,but there are 2 variants:Flat a-b-c or double a-b-c-x-a-b-c!If PA break up the pivot resistance level 1240,PA will continue going higher and then fall again!But if not it's clear that we're already in wave down 5 of larger degree!I tend to variant 1,because I think USD is gaining its strength in FA view!Time will answer us! {image} {image}

i am currently holding a short (as of friday), looking for 1299 short term
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #2,575
  • Jul 28, 2013 1:57am Jul 28, 2013 1:57am
Time to go short crude, it seems

never before the Comms had so much net short position like now

COT Index (156 weeks) of Comms in shooting position
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  • #2,576
  • Jul 28, 2013 2:03am Jul 28, 2013 2:03am
Quoting infinitus
Time to go short crude, it seems never before the Comms had so much net short position like now COT Index (156 weeks) of Comms in shooting position {image}

But on the other hand: the small specs are not as long as they should be (see COT Index small specs) - maybe we have to wait a bit more to see the small specs loading the boat finally
  • #2,577
  • Jul 28, 2013 2:06am Jul 28, 2013 2:06am
the situation in crude starts to be reflected in heating oil

if you need heating oil, it seems best to wait for better prices
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  • #2,578
  • Jul 28, 2013 5:16am Jul 28, 2013 5:16am
If I want to trade upon this one what should be my entry????

1 does it means strong bull?
2 is it indication that price will not go bellow 1.30*** area till 2 Aug.
3. or big boys eat up all selling puts,( means price go down)
4 any clue indication according to this chart ????
ref: http://www.optionpopularity.com/soft...ularityEN.aspx
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #2,579
  • Jul 28, 2013 5:51am Jul 28, 2013 5:51am
#eurjpy #gbpjpy

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My blog: magchart.blogspot
  • #2,580
  • Jul 28, 2013 6:42am Jul 28, 2013 6:42am
Something about this count does not sit well with me.
I refer specifically to the fact that the analyst's count shows a wave 4 breaching wave 1
Other than that, I agree with the analysis of a pending bearish move.
Any comment?

http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-pr...wave-analysis/

EURUSD is moving higher for the last few days but on a very low volume and momentum, which is usually an early signal for a trend change.
This is clearly evident on RSI with bearish divergence. From an Elliott Wave Perspective we can also see a three wave A-B-C rise from 1.2750 which is a structure of corrective price action.
As such, traders must be aware of a bearish reversal especially if we consider a shape of an ending diagonal which is a trend-reversal pattern. An impulsive fall from highs and down to 1.3160 will be a first but strong indication that rally is complete and that EUR is headed lower.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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